What constitutes an overpay for Marner

RFA	YEARS	CAP HIT
Marner, Mitchell	8	$8,965,000

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
23	$81,500,000	$79,161,366	$0	$0	$2,338,634

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Mikheyev, Ilya $925,000$925,000 LW, RW UFA - 1	Tavares, John $11,000,000$11,000,000 C, LW NMC UFA - 6	Marner, Mitchell $8,965,000$8,965,000 RW UFA - 6
Johnsson, Andreas $3,400,000$3,400,000 LW, RW UFA - 4	Matthews, Auston $11,634,000$11,634,000 C UFA - 5	Nylander, William $6,962,366$6,962,366 RW UFA - 5
Moore, Trevor $775,000$775,000 LW, RW UFA - 2	Kerfoot, Alexander $3,500,000$3,500,000 LW, C, RW UFA - 4	Kapanen, Kasperi $3,200,000$3,200,000 RW UFA - 3
Petan, Nicolas $775,000$775,000 C, LW, RW UFA - 2	Spezza, Jason $700,000$700,000 C, RW NTC UFA - 1
	Gauthier, Frédérik $675,000$675,000 C UFA - 1	Wilson, Garrett $725,000$725,000 RW, LW UFA - 1
		Åberg, Pontus $700,000$700,000 RW, LW UFA - 1

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Rielly, Morgan $5,000,000$5,000,000 LD UFA - 3	Ceci, Cody $4,500,000$4,500,000 RD UFA - 1	Andersen, Frederik $5,000,000$5,000,000 G M-NTC UFA - 2
Muzzin, Jake $4,000,000$4,000,000 LD UFA - 1	Barrie, Tyson $2,750,000$2,750,000 RD UFA - 1	Hutchinson, Michael $700,000$700,000 G UFA - 1
Marincin, Martin $700,000$700,000 LD UFA - 1	Schmaltz, Jordan $700,000$700,000 RD UFA - 1
	Holl, Justin $675,000$675,000 RD UFA - 1

Aug. 3, 2019 at 1:54 p.m.

#1

Snipshow4416

LEAFSandBRUINSfan

Joined: Jul. 2019

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To me I’m fine with a 9.5 as long as it’s 7-8 years because it’ll be a steal in a couple years

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Aug. 3, 2019 at 2:11 p.m.

#2

NR1203

V5 ANA and BOG

Joined: Jan. 2017

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Anything more than 9 is an overpay. 9-10 is borderline acceptable, if he gets more than 10 there needs to be a serious conversation about Dubas's job.

Aug. 3, 2019 at 2:13 p.m.

#3

Snipshow4416

LEAFSandBRUINSfan

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Quoting: NR1203

Anything more than 9 is an overpay. 9-10 is borderline acceptable, if he gets more than 10 there needs to be a serious conversation about Dubas's job.

Unless it’s a 8 year deal.

Sign_em_up000000 liked this.

Aug. 3, 2019 at 2:14 p.m.

#4

Dan10900

Joined: Jun. 2018

Posts: 7,261

Likes: 2,706

Very well thought out, gj, as leafs GM I'd be willing to go a bit more than 9, but no more than what Mark Stone got (ideally for me, a person who hates the leafs he signs like a 12x2 deal, then in two years gets like 14x3 bc the cap will probably go up quite a bit, then he walks as a UFA lol)

Aug. 3, 2019 at 2:17 p.m.

#5

NR1203

V5 ANA and BOG

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Quoting: Snipshow4416

Unless it’s a 8 year deal.

Even on an 8year deal, I wouldn't pay more than 10. He's a 60-70 point player without Tavares, but luckily for him we won't see that side of him since Tavares is going to be here for a long time. Tavares's free agency came at the perfect time for Marner.

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Aug. 3, 2019 at 2:37 p.m.

#6

oneX

Joined: Mar. 2019

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All very valid points in the description and the same things I've brought up every time there's a Marner related ACGM. There's another ACGM where a couple people claim that Leafs fans hate Marner...well the smart ones anyway.
It's not about hate, it's a negoiation. Just because a GM does not want to overpay for a player does not equal hate.

Do other fanbases and their GM's hate RFA's on their respective teams? NO.
So why is this an issue with Marner? Because it's not.

Trickster, Sign_em_up000000, Goulet and 2 others liked this.

Aug. 3, 2019 at 3:05 p.m.

#7

Agent_Of_R9

Marner Enthusiast

Joined: Apr. 2019

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Quoting: NR1203

All very valid points in the description and the same things I've brought up every time there's a Marner related ACGM. There's another ACGM where a couple people claim that Leafs fans hate Marner...well the smart ones anyway.
It's not about hate, it's a negoiation. Just because a GM does not want to overpay for a player does not equal hate.

Do other fanbases and their GM's hate RFA's on their respective teams? NO.
So why is this an issue with Marner? Because it's not.

Quoting: AFOX10900

Very well thought out, gj, as leafs GM I'd be willing to go a bit more than 9, but no more than what Mark Stone got (ideally for me, a person who hates the leafs he signs like a 12x2 deal, then in two years gets like 14x3 bc the cap will probably go up quite a bit, then he walks as a UFA lol)

Quoting: AFOX10900

Even on an 8year deal, I wouldn't pay more than 10. He's a 60-70 point player without Tavares, but luckily for him we won't see that side of him since Tavares is going to be here for a long time. Tavares's free agency came at the perfect time for Marner.

Quoting: Snipshow4416

Unless it’s a 8 year deal.

Quoting: Snipshow4416

To me I’m fine with a 9.5 as long as it’s 7-8 years because it’ll be a steal in a couple years

Which player would you rather have, Jake Guentzel (5 years 6 million AAV) or Mitch Marner (5 years 10.5 million AAV)?

Aug. 3, 2019 at 3:09 p.m.

#8

Snipshow4416

LEAFSandBRUINSfan

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Quoting: BrandonDubinskyGOAT

Which player would you rather have, Jake Guentzel (5 years 6 million AAV) or Mitch Marner (5 years 10.5 million AAV)?

Marner

Aug. 3, 2019 at 3:10 p.m.

#9

Agent_Of_R9

Marner Enthusiast

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Quoting: Snipshow4416

Marner

I’m relieved to hear that. Honestly, Guentzel on Tavares’ wing may not even be a 70 point player whereas Marner on Crosby’s wing would be 120 points.

Snipshow4416 liked this.

Aug. 3, 2019 at 3:12 p.m.

#10

palhal

LongtimeLeafsufferer

Joined: Jul. 2015

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Goulet: Too much logic in your description.

Note: I don't why folks think there is going to be a significant bump in revenue/cap. Even with the Vegas bump the cap has gone up just 6.5m in two years.
So even if Marner signs a 6 year contract, the cap at end of his contract might be 98m. Hardly justifying overpaying any player.

If the offers by the Leafs are so underwhelming to Marner, you would have thought Marner would have signed with some other teams . I guess Marner has received a total of 31 teams giving offering him underwhelming offers.

10m would make Marner the 10th highest paid player in the league. Not justisfied for his RFA status....maybe not even if he was a UFA.

As oneX said, "Must be a whole lotta GMs hating their RFAs, because so many are still not signed." (great sarcasm) I'm surprised/disappointed that so many contracts have been dragged out so long. But both sides have the right to say "no" to any proposal offered.

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Aug. 3, 2019 at 3:16 p.m.

#11

Agent_Of_R9

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Quoting: palhal

Goulet: Too much logic in your description.

Note: I don't why folks think there is going to be a significant bump in revenue/cap. Even with the Vegas bump the cap has gone up just 6.5m in two years.
So even if Marner signs a 6 year contract, the cap at end of his contract might be 98m. Hardly justifying overpaying any player.

If the offers by the Leafs are so underwhelming to Marner, you would have thought Marner would have signed with some other teams . I guess Marner has received a total of 31 teams giving offering him underwhelming offers.

10m would make Marner the 10th highest paid player in the league. Not justisfied for his RFA status....maybe not even if he was a UFA.

As oneX said, "Must be a whole lotta GMs hating their RFAs, because so many are still not signed." (great sarcasm) I'm surprised/disappointed that so many contracts have been dragged out so long. But both sides have the right to say "no" to any proposal offered.

Which player would you rather have, Jake Guentzel (5 years 6 million AAV) or Mitch Marner (5 years 10.5 million AAV)?

Aug. 3, 2019 at 3:24 p.m.

#12

oneX

Joined: Mar. 2019

Posts: 2,787

Likes: 2,630

Quoting: palhal

Goulet: Too much logic in your description.

Note: I don't why folks think there is going to be a significant bump in revenue/cap. Even with the Vegas bump the cap has gone up just 6.5m in two years.
So even if Marner signs a 6 year contract, the cap at end of his contract might be 98m. Hardly justifying overpaying any player.

If the offers by the Leafs are so underwhelming to Marner, you would have thought Marner would have signed with some other teams . I guess Marner has received a total of 31 teams giving offering him underwhelming offers.

10m would make Marner the 10th highest paid player in the league. Not justisfied for his RFA status....maybe not even if he was a UFA.

As oneX said, "Must be a whole lotta GMs hating their RFAs, because so many are still not signed." (great sarcasm) I'm surprised/disappointed that so many contracts have been dragged out so long. But both sides have the right to say "no" to any proposal offered.

Man...if only more people thought logically like you and @Goulet did here.
You are also right about the revenue/cap.
The NHL needs to focus on getting their product in front of more people rather than just taking the most money from whatever network.

And if they do take less money for more exposure, that will mean smaller cap increases.

blowing_the_zone liked this.

Aug. 3, 2019 at 3:26 p.m.

#13

palhal

LongtimeLeafsufferer

Joined: Jul. 2015

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Quoting: BrandonDubinskyGOAT

Which player would you rather have, Jake Guentzel (5 years 6 million AAV) or Mitch Marner (5 years 10.5 million AAV)?

I'd say Marner. But if that's the case, why didn't Pittsburg not sign Guentzel and instead sign Marner for 5 X 10.5m in July. So what's your point?
Marner has the right to sign with any team, world wide, including the NHL. Leafs aren't holding him back at all. Just like Point, Rantanen, Laine, Connor, McAvoy, Carlo, Boesner (who have I missed), they can sign with any team. Obviously the players haven't received offers that they like....at least right now. Those same offers may look very good in September, October or November.

Aug. 3, 2019 at 3:33 p.m.

#14

Agent_Of_R9

Marner Enthusiast

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Quoting: palhal

I'd say Marner. But if that's the case, why didn't Pittsburg not sign Guentzel and instead sign Marner for 5 X 10.5m in July. So what's your point?
Marner has the right to sign with any team, world wide, including the NHL. Leafs aren't holding him back at all. Just like Point, Rantanen, Laine, Connor, McAvoy, Carlo, Boesner (who have I missed), they can sign with any team. Obviously the players haven't received offers that they like....at least right now. Those same offers may look very good in September, October or November.

To be honest, I was surprised Guentzel didn't take 10 million dollars AAV on a 5 year deal. Most Penguins fans felt he deserved it considering how well he played in the playoffs. We were all relieved that he took such a team friendly deal, it now looks like a steal. But honestly I don't think he is as good as Marner.

Aug. 3, 2019 at 3:36 p.m.

#15

Goulet

Thread Starter

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Quoting: BrandonDubinskyGOAT

I’m relieved to hear that. Honestly, Guentzel on Tavares’ wing may not even be a 70 point player whereas Marner on Crosby’s wing would be 120 points.

Tavares, more than Crosby, has a history of taking 40-50 point players and making them 60-70 point players on his wing. Parenteau, Moulson, Okposo, Bailey, Lee...who am I missing?

The answer to your Marner/Guentzel question is Guentzel. That 4.5M is not worth 20-35 points and is better spent elsewhere.

Aug. 3, 2019 at 3:36 p.m.

#16

palhal

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Quoting: oneX

Man...if only more people thought logically like you and @Goulet did here.
You are also right about the revenue/cap.
The NHL needs to focus on getting their product in front of more people rather than just taking the most money from whatever network.

And if they do take less money for more exposure, that will mean smaller cap increases.

When former NBA VP Gary Bettman was anointed the Commish of the NHL, 25 years ...the hope and promise was that NHL was going to be a national watched sport in the USA resulting in huge TV deals for the league. Well this has never happened and likely never will. There are just too many small NHL markets who depend almost solely on there walkup game day attendees. Bettman and his minions have spent much of their energies bailing out poor franchises which were often awarded to owners with no financial backing.
From a financial POV....just for an operating league, the NHL should about 20 franchises and a cap hit 100m. The other franchises drag down the cap, but it does provide employment to another 250 NHLer and 300 AHLers. So the players don't really object to the lower cap, because more of than have high paying jobs. The owners don't want contraction because then the defunct franchises and even some of the others would have almost zero dollars in value.
So the NHL and there structure isn't likely to change. Interesting the NHL rich owners seems to more socialistic (share the financial resources) than the top players.

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Aug. 3, 2019 at 4:05 p.m.

#17

blowing_the_zone

Joined: May 2018

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Excellent description, Goulet.

Goulet liked this.

Aug. 3, 2019 at 4:19 p.m.

#18

Agent_Of_R9

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Edited Aug. 3, 2019 at 4:38 p.m.

Quoting: Goulet

Tavares, more than Crosby, has a history of taking 40-50 point players and making them 60-70 point players on his wing. Parenteau, Moulson, Okposo, Bailey, Lee...who am I missing?

The answer to your Marner/Guentzel question is Guentzel. That 4.5M is not worth 20-35 points and is better spent elsewhere.

You cannot be serious. Did you really just say Tavares is better at elevating his linemates' play than Crosby? May I remind you that Crosby converted Kunitz into a 35 goal 70 point scorer and Dupuis a 25 goal 60 point guy? Both these guys were undrafted and less talented than literally all the players you just named. He helped Sheary, another undrafted midget to scoring almost a point per game on his wing. Helped Guentzel achieve 25 goals and 50 points in the playoffs. Made Ryan Malone a 30 goal scorer! Is that not enough? Crosby at his peak was MILES ahead of Tavares, it's not even close. Tell me again, how many 100 point seasons does JT have again? So yes, Crosby scoring 110 points with Dupuis and Kunitz, he'd get 150 playing with Marner and help Marner to 120. Honestly you probably just posted the stupidest take of all time.

Aug. 3, 2019 at 4:53 p.m.

#19

GOleafsGOOO

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Edited Aug. 3, 2019 at 5:02 p.m.

All offseason I’ve been leaning to that thought process
75M on 8 year term is both fair and justifiable

As we got closer I know I will be fine w something in the 10s for sake of moving on but deserves and wants seem too be far apart

If he insists on shorter term I’m offering
50M on 6 years
22.5 on 3 years

Basically I see fair value starting at 5 in year 1 to 12.5 by the end of contract
5. 5. 7.5 7.5 10 10 12.5 12,5

Aug. 3, 2019 at 5:26 p.m.

#20

Goulet

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Quoting: BrandonDubinskyGOAT

You cannot be serious. Did you really just say Tavares is better at elevating his linemates' play than Crosby? May I remind you that Crosby converted Kunitz into a 35 goal 70 point scorer and Dupuis a 25 goal 60 point guy? Both these guys were undrafted and less talented than literally all the players you just named. He helped Sheary, another undrafted midget to scoring almost a point per game on his wing. Helped Guentzel achieve 25 goals and 50 points in the playoffs. Made Ryan Malone a 30 goal scorer! Is that not enough? Crosby at his peak was MILES ahead of Tavares, it's not even close. Tell me again, how many 100 point seasons does JT have again? So yes, Crosby scoring 110 points with Dupuis and Kunitz, he'd get 150 playing with Marner and help Marner to 120. Honestly you probably just posted the stupidest take of all time.

Tell me how you really feel.

Aug. 3, 2019 at 5:29 p.m.

#21

Agent_Of_R9

Marner Enthusiast

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Quoting: Goulet

Tell me how you really feel.

Crosby is better than Tavares. You cannot compare someone who can't even put up 90 points playing with an elite winger in Marner to someone who put up 120 points in his sophomore year playing with Ryan Malone!

Aug. 3, 2019 at 5:36 p.m.

#22

Goulet

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Quoting: BrandonDubinskyGOAT

Crosby is better than Tavares. You cannot compare someone who can't even put up 90 points playing with an elite winger in Marner to someone who put up 120 points in his sophomore year playing with Ryan Malone!

At no point did I put JT in front of Crosby. Crosby is the best player of the last decade, bar none. Tavares, is somehow the forgotten one...and too many people, like yourself, believe Marner came before Tavares. He didn't. Marner is hands down the best winger JT has played with and you see that in his career high in goals. BUT...Tavares put up three 80 point seasons on the island with absolutely no help.

Crosby has improved everyone around him. Tavares has done a hell of a job with his second rate wingers over the years and doesn't get any credit for it. Crosby gets all the credit in the world. And deserves it.

On this Leafs team no one talks about how good Tavares is. 47 goals, best forward on the team last year and yet he is invisible to the fanbase in favour of the kids who aren't yet as good.

Marner is good. Great passer, great effort level, arguably the best winger on the team after the season Nylander had. But best player? No.

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Aug. 3, 2019 at 5:41 p.m.

#23

Agent_Of_R9

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Quoting: Goulet

At no point did I put JT in front of Crosby. Crosby is the best player of the last decade, bar none. Tavares, is somehow the forgotten one...and too many people, like yourself, believe Marner came before Tavares. He didn't. Marner is hands down the best winger JT has played with and you see that in his career high in goals. BUT...Tavares put up three 80 point seasons on the island with absolutely no help.

Crosby has improved everyone around him. Tavares has done a hell of a job with his second rate wingers over the years and doesn't get any credit for it. Crosby gets all the credit in the world. And deserves it.

On this Leafs team no one talks about how good Tavares is. 47 goals, best forward on the team last year and yet he is invisible to the fanbase in favour of the kids who aren't yet as good.

Marner is good. Great passer, great effort level, arguably the best winger on the team after the season Nylander had. But best player? No.

I never said Marner was the best player on the team. My point is if Sidney Crosby could turn Chris Kunitz into a 35 goal 70 point scorer at the age of 34, no doubt in my mind that he would help Anders Lee achieve 50 goals 100 points. I get that you Leaf fans hate Marner and want to make sure he looks like a passenger under Tavares, but there are better centremen out there than JT who will make him look even better.

Aug. 3, 2019 at 5:46 p.m.

#24

Laudan

Joined: Jul. 2018

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To answer the question in Title....overpayment for Matthews does.....

Aug. 3, 2019 at 5:53 p.m.

#25

Goulet

Thread Starter

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Quoting: BrandonDubinskyGOAT

I never said Marner was the best player on the team. My point is if Sidney Crosby could turn Chris Kunitz into a 35 goal 70 point scorer at the age of 34, no doubt in my mind that he would help Anders Lee achieve 50 goals 100 points. I get that you Leaf fans hate Marner and want to make sure he looks like a passenger under Tavares, but there are better centremen out there than JT who will make him look even better.

This isn't a debate over Crosby and Tavares, there is no question mark there. But you have to at least recognize that Crosby had a supporting cast that ultimately led to Cups and JT had no one.

There is no hate here for Marner. Only reality. Many Leaf fans think the world of him and want to open the vaults and when anyone applies a little logic to the situation it is presumed to be hate. It's not. This is how an arbitration hearing would go. One side presents their case and then so does the other.

I hear a lot of people talk about cap inflation, here I wanted to point out the inflation in offense leaguewide. They'd laugh at us now, back in the 80's they were scoring at more than 1 goal more per game and 94 points was what the better D in the league were putting up.

blowing_the_zone liked this.

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2020
2021
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Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
		Clarkson, David $5,250,000$5,250,000 RW M-NTC, NMC UFA - 1
		Horton, Nathan $5,300,000$5,300,000 RW M-NTC, NMC UFA - 1
		Hyman, Zach $2,250,000$2,250,000 RW, LW M-NTC UFA - 2
		Dermott, Travis $863,333$863,333 LD/RD UFA - 1

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