What constitutes an overpay for Marner

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Created by: Goulet

Team: 2019-20 Toronto Maple Leafs

Initial Creation Date: Aug. 3, 2019

Published: Aug. 3, 2019

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

94 points seems like a lot but is that all that matters? It would have won the Art Ross five years ago but this past year 94 points was good for 11th and his points per game rate was 15th for players playing at least 50 games.

The rules have changed, the game is faster and scoring is up. 31 players scored at a point per game or better last year compared to 24 the year before, 8 the year prior, 6, 8, and so on. Scoring is up.

Draisaitl, Tarasenko, Gaudreau, and Pastrnak are all high scoring wingers, all scored more points per game compared to the rest of the league in their contract years (10th, 9th, 7th, 12th), and all signed deals ranging from 6-8 years with cap hit %'s from 8.89 to 11.33% and cap hits in the 6.66 to 8.5 million range.

Then there is the Tavares factor. A 25 point jump is partially self growth, partially team growth, and partially playing with Tavares who over the last decade, is 3rd in goals and 7th in points.

I like Marner. Tavares likes Marner. Matthews and the rest of the team likes Marner. His agent REALLY likes Marner but let's be realistic here. You're not comparable to a #1 centre and I was generous with the 4 comps I used. 8 figures is an overpay at any contract length.

I gave him 11% on his 8 year deal. Yes, I know he won't take it.

Good thing Dubas cleared out all the dead money to do it.

Free Agent Signings

RFA		YEARS	CAP HIT
Marner, Mitchell		8	$8,965,000

Buyouts

Mikhail Grabovski: $0

Retained Salary Transactions

Phil Kessel: $1,200,000 (15%)

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2020
2021
2022

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
23	$81,500,000	$79,161,366	$0	$0	$2,338,634

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Mikheyev, Ilya $925,000$925,000 LW, RW UFA - 1	Tavares, John $11,000,000$11,000,000 C, LW NMC UFA - 6	Marner, Mitchell $8,965,000$8,965,000 RW UFA - 6
Johnsson, Andreas $3,400,000$3,400,000 LW, RW UFA - 4	Matthews, Auston $11,634,000$11,634,000 C UFA - 5	Nylander, William $6,962,366$6,962,366 RW UFA - 5
Moore, Trevor $775,000$775,000 LW, RW UFA - 2	Kerfoot, Alexander $3,500,000$3,500,000 LW, C, RW UFA - 4	Kapanen, Kasperi $3,200,000$3,200,000 RW UFA - 3
Petan, Nicolas $775,000$775,000 C, LW, RW UFA - 2	Spezza, Jason $700,000$700,000 C, RW NTC UFA - 1
	Gauthier, Frédérik $675,000$675,000 C UFA - 1	Wilson, Garrett $725,000$725,000 RW, LW UFA - 1
		Åberg, Pontus $700,000$700,000 RW, LW UFA - 1

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Rielly, Morgan $5,000,000$5,000,000 LD UFA - 3	Ceci, Cody $4,500,000$4,500,000 RD UFA - 1	Andersen, Frederik $5,000,000$5,000,000 G M-NTC UFA - 2
Muzzin, Jake $4,000,000$4,000,000 LD UFA - 1	Barrie, Tyson $2,750,000$2,750,000 RD UFA - 1	Hutchinson, Michael $700,000$700,000 G UFA - 1
Marincin, Martin $700,000$700,000 LD UFA - 1	Schmaltz, Jordan $700,000$700,000 RD UFA - 1
	Holl, Justin $675,000$675,000 RD UFA - 1

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
		Clarkson, David $5,250,000$5,250,000 RW M-NTC, NMC UFA - 1
		Horton, Nathan $5,300,000$5,300,000 RW M-NTC, NMC UFA - 1
		Hyman, Zach $2,250,000$2,250,000 RW, LW M-NTC UFA - 2
		Dermott, Travis $863,333$863,333 LD/RD UFA - 1

Aug. 3, 2019 at 5:57 p.m.

#26

blowing_the_zone

Joined: May 2018

Posts: 2,132

Likes: 1,540

Quoting: Goulet

At no point did I put JT in front of Crosby. Crosby is the best player of the last decade, bar none. Tavares, is somehow the forgotten one...and too many people, like yourself, believe Marner came before Tavares. He didn't. Marner is hands down the best winger JT has played with and you see that in his career high in goals. BUT...Tavares put up three 80 point seasons on the island with absolutely no help.

Crosby has improved everyone around him. Tavares has done a hell of a job with his second rate wingers over the years and doesn't get any credit for it. Crosby gets all the credit in the world. And deserves it.

On this Leafs team no one talks about how good Tavares is. 47 goals, best forward on the team last year and yet he is invisible to the fanbase in favour of the kids who aren't yet as good.

Marner is good. Great passer, great effort level, arguably the best winger on the team after the season Nylander had. But best player? No.

Spot on about JT being the forgotten one, and how everyone is wrapped up with the young guys. Don't get me wrong, they're great. But this is why I love JT..

He comes across as humble despite being great. And he doesn't need the limelight or media accolades or the highest contract he can get in order to validate his worth. Can't put a price on that. It's called character and leadership. Something young guys in the league could learn from

Goulet liked this.

Aug. 3, 2019 at 5:59 p.m.

#27

Agent_Of_R9

Marner Enthusiast

Joined: Apr. 2019

Posts: 4,396

Likes: 996

Quoting: Goulet

This isn't a debate over Crosby and Tavares, there is no question mark there. But you have to at least recognize that Crosby had a supporting cast that ultimately led to Cups and JT had no one.

There is no hate here for Marner. Only reality. Many Leaf fans think the world of him and want to open the vaults and when anyone applies a little logic to the situation it is presumed to be hate. It's not. This is how an arbitration hearing would go. One side presents their case and then so does the other.

I hear a lot of people talk about cap inflation, here I wanted to point out the inflation in offense leaguewide. They'd laugh at us now, back in the 80's they were scoring at more than 1 goal more per game and 94 points was what the better D in the league were putting up.

Yes no doubt that Crosby has played on better teams than Tavares, but the wingers he had on his line were made by Sidney.

Aug. 3, 2019 at 6:00 p.m.

#28

Goulet

Thread Starter

Joined: Feb. 2017

Posts: 1,930

Likes: 418

Quoting: blowing_the_zone

Which is exactly why they got him.

blowing_the_zone liked this.

Aug. 3, 2019 at 6:02 p.m.

#29

Goulet

Thread Starter

Joined: Feb. 2017

Posts: 1,930

Likes: 418

Quoting: BrandonDubinskyGOAT

Yes no doubt that Crosby has played on better teams than Tavares, but the wingers he had on his line were made by Sidney.

Common knowledge bud.

Aug. 3, 2019 at 6:52 p.m.

#30

pharrow

Banned

Joined: Jun. 2018

Posts: 19,215

Likes: 4,837

You can't cherry pick your comparables.
Pasta signed his deal in 2017 after a break out year. The year prior he played 51 games, had 15 goals and 26 points. If Pasta would have signed that deal one year later in 2018 after having 2 really good seasons you are looking at a different contract.

Marner in return has had 3 seasons over 60 points. The year before his contract year he put up 69 points. That's a far cry from 26.

The reality is the number for Marner is roughly 10.5 per.
The question is how much can you skim from that where it is worth if for him to stay in Toronto.
Maybe you can get in to 10.2 or 10.3 because of what he makes on endorsements in Toronto as opposed to somewhere else.
The real issue is most likely the length. If I was Marner I'm pushing hard for 4 years. He hits FA as soon as possible.

Aug. 3, 2019 at 7:20 p.m.

#31

blowing_the_zone

Joined: May 2018

Posts: 2,132

Likes: 1,540

Quoting: pharrow

Couldn't agree more on cherry picking comparables.

Where does that Marner kid get off making AM his only comparable??

Goulet liked this.

Aug. 3, 2019 at 7:31 p.m.

#32

NR1203

V5 ANA and BOG

Joined: Jan. 2017

Posts: 1,886

Likes: 691

Quoting: BrandonDubinskyGOAT

Which player would you rather have, Jake Guentzel (5 years 6 million AAV) or Mitch Marner (5 years 10.5 million AAV)?

On that Marner contract, I'd take Guentzel and use the remaining cap to improve the D or simply retain both Muzzin and Barrie. I'm going to get hate for this, but when the Leafs already have such a talented forward core that's a tradeoff I'd make. Keeping a good Dcore together and lose 30 points in production from the offense.

Goulet and blowing_the_zone liked this.

Aug. 3, 2019 at 8:29 p.m.

#33

Goulet

Thread Starter

Joined: Feb. 2017

Posts: 1,930

Likes: 418

Quoting: pharrow

If I can't cherry pick 4 winger comps that, in their contract year, all outperformed Marner against the league, then please, what comps shall we use?

Aug. 3, 2019 at 8:44 p.m.

#34

blowing_the_zone

Joined: May 2018

Posts: 2,132

Likes: 1,540

Quoting: Goulet

If I can't cherry pick 4 winger comps that, in their contract year, all outperformed Marner against the league, then please, what comps shall we use?

Austin Matthews. A 6 ft 3 225lb franchise centre who scores goals at an unprecedented rate. And unicorns. And leprechauns.

Those are the only comparables you can use.

Aug. 3, 2019 at 8:55 p.m.

#35

blowing_the_zone

Joined: May 2018

Posts: 2,132

Likes: 1,540

Quoting: NR1203

Nothing sayin that we don't pick up points with Marner gone and an uptick in points by Kap, Johnson, Nylander, Muzzin and Barrie. And who knows what Lily, Sandin and even Bracco might bring to the table.

Cap space is precious in a cap world.

NR1203 liked this.

Aug. 4, 2019 at 12:45 a.m.

#36

pharrow

Banned

Joined: Jun. 2018

Posts: 19,215

Likes: 4,837

Quoting: blowing_the_zone

Couldn't agree more on cherry picking comparables.

Where does that Marner kid get off making AM his only comparable??

He isn't worth AM money, AM is a 40 goal scorer and Marner isn't. Period.
I don't even think Marner sets this market, Point does.

But 10.2 or 10.3 isn't AM money. You are 1.5 million off almost at 10.2

Quoting: Goulet

If I can't cherry pick 4 winger comps that, in their contract year, all outperformed Marner against the league, then please, what comps shall we use?

Finding comparable for Marner is hard because you are looking for guys who came in and had instant success at some level and then had 90 point year on their contract year. The amount of players who hit 90 points in a year are already small, to have done it in their 3rd year and had 60+ points the prior 2 years in the league is almost non existent. But you can't sit there and honestly say that Pasta signs that contract if he had two 60+ point season prior to his break out year. He doesn't because he has more leverage to say it's not a fluke year. At some point you have to be honest about it.
What makes it even harder is that most of Marner's points are in assists. It's not like you are looking at AM, McDavid, or Point who are racking up 40+ goals. If that were the case you could probably find a comparable easier.
He'll never command a salary as high as AM or McJesus.

You could very well cherry pick a Jack Eichel and say, oh look he deserves 10 million+ which is why I said you can't just cherry pick the ones you want and ignore the reality of it.

blowing_the_zone liked this.

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