I can see it. I’m almost thinking between 8.75-9.25

Not sure 375K is that bad of an overpayment

Leafs are going to lose this situation anyway. Marner won't sign any offersheet, no team will trade for him. Toronto wants either 3/6/7 year term. Marner will sign 3 years now on a massive bridge deal, refuses an extension, files for arbitration. Toronto walks away from the arbitration offer and Marner becomes an UFA in 3 years, or he'll become an UFA in 4 or 5 years after the arbitration contract. Marner still gets what he wants and Toronto will lose Marner, Matthews and Nylander all in the same year to free agency

*1.875

Pretty optimistic to think that a 95 point player signs a $7,5M deal, no matter how long the contract is.

It's not 2015 anymore.

Exactly. Its not 2015, he would be worth less than that in 2015 on bridge deal 7.5-8 is 3yr maximum..

Highly doubt it. MacKinnon signed a six year deal at $6,3M per year after his ELC expired in 2016, and he was a 60-point player then. 95 points at the same age is at the very least $1M worth more...

Well I mean if he is signing for 6 years near 9 million then that would be a different story.

That'd be a major discount lol

Your crystal ball is broken honey.....

That would be a slight discount imo.

Compared to his initial ask ($11,6M x 5) it's a major one.

He can ask for whatever he wants, he is not worth it imo. He is worth 9.5x6 and it would be slight discount at 9x6 which wouldnt happen.

I'm just wondering why. For example, he outscored Panarin and is younger than him, yet he got a $11,6M contract. Now usually the younger player who produces more is considered more valuable...

Granted, Marner played with better team and better linemates, and his advanced statistics aren't exactly the best, but I can somehow see why he'd demand that amount. There's other examples in the league that gets the amount, so why shouldn't he?

Regardless, I'm going to be very surprised if he signs under $10M contract - unless the contract is a 3-year deal or so.

Lol you think it will be much different. They don't want to give Marner 4 or 5 years because they can potentially lose Marner in the same period to free agency as Matthews and Nylander (there is always a risk you'll lose them as an UFA). Now they are thinking about 3/6/7 years. Marner's agent reportedly asked for 3x10M. They'll try to sign a 3 year deal so they have all the power. All he has to do after signing 3 years is refusing another extension, file for arbitration and he'll have the UFA status within 5 seasons from now, just as Matthews and Nylander. Which is exactly the situation Marner wants and what Toronto wants to avoid

Well if we are go by initial asks them damn near every player takes a major discount.

Not quite. There's many examples who did not take a discount - Karlsson and Matthews are great examples.