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Ristolainen to Edmonton

Created by: GMTD
Team: 2019-20 Buffalo Sabres
Initial Creation Date: Aug. 13, 2019
Published: Aug. 13, 2019
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
This trade was proposed:
https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/262432
I wanted to post it from a Sabre side.
Trades
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DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2020
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2021
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2022
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ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
22$81,500,000$72,926,667$0$4,125,000$8,573,333
Left WingCentreRight Wing
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$2,275,000$2,275,000
RW, LW
UFA - 1
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$10,000,000$10,000,000
C
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$3,000,000$3,000,000
LW, RW
UFA - 1
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$9,000,000$9,000,000
LW, RW
NMC
UFA - 8
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$2,835,000$2,835,000
RW, C
UFA - 1
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$3,650,000$3,650,000
RW
UFA - 1
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$4,500,000$4,500,000
LW, RW
M-NTC
UFA - 2
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$925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$850,000$850K)
LW, C
RFA - 1
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$2,000,000$2,000,000
LW, C
UFA - 1
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$1,600,000$1,600,000
LW, C
UFA - 1
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$1,550,000$1,550,000
C, LW
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$6,000,000$6,000,000
RW
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$1,050,000$1,050,000
LW
UFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
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$925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$2,850,000$3M)
LD/RD
UFA - 2
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$3,875,000$3,875,000
RD
UFA - 3
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$2,750,000$2,750,000
G
UFA - 2
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$2,850,000$2,850,000
LD/RD
UFA - 2
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$3,387,500$3,387,500
RD
UFA - 1
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$1,325,000$1,325,000
G
UFA - 1
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$2,000,000$2,000,000
LD
UFA - 1
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$925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$425,000$425K)
RD
RFA - 2
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$812,500$812,500
RD
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ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
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$1,300,000$1,300,000
RD
UFA - 1

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Aug. 13, 2019 at 10:25 a.m.
#1
KFTW
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Dont think Edmonton says yes here.
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Aug. 13, 2019 at 10:31 a.m.
#2
Oil Country Rising
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Props to you for not lowballing with a Nuge or a Nuge+ offer.

I went with:
Risto for Pulju, Maksimov, Lagesson, Gagner, 3rd and 6th and got blasted for it (hey now we know what the low point is).

Revision should be somewhere along the lines of:
Risto for Pulju, Bear, Safin, Gagner, 3rd and 3rd.
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Aug. 13, 2019 at 10:35 a.m.
#3
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Quoting: Miguelicious
Props to you for not lowballing with a Nuge or a Nuge+ offer.

I went with:
Risto for Pulju, Maksimov, Lagesson, Gagner, 3rd and 6th and got blasted for it (hey now we know what the low point is).

Revision should be somewhere along the lines of:
Risto for Pulju, Bear, Safin, Gagner, 3rd and 3rd.


Edmonton has no interest in Ristolainen.
Aug. 13, 2019 at 10:41 a.m.
#4
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This team would be tanking with this lineup
Aug. 13, 2019 at 10:43 a.m.
#5
MisstheWhalers
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Should be Pulujarvi not Yamamoto
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Aug. 13, 2019 at 10:44 a.m.
#6
Oil Country Rising
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Quoting: CD282
Edmonton has no interest in Ristolainen.


Still better than having Russel/Benning rounding out the top 4
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Aug. 13, 2019 at 10:44 a.m.
#7
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Eichel Tower
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Quoting: Sabres923
This team would be tanking with this lineup


So this line up would be in contention for last place over all and the first over all pick?
Why do you think that? Please be as specific as you can, I am really interested hearing your view point.
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Aug. 13, 2019 at 10:54 a.m.
#8
Subbanator
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If they move Risto its for an established forward. Buffalo has to be sick of losing and would be looking to get instantly better not another prospect and pick package.
Aug. 13, 2019 at 11:01 a.m.
#9
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Quoting: Miguelicious
Still better than having Russel/Benning rounding out the top 4


Is it? I doubt it very much. And Russell/Benning are only stand-ins anyhow, until the prospects are ready to take on the challenge.

In any case, I say that Edmonton has no interest in Ristolainen not because he's a terrible player, but because Holland has 3 prospect defensemen that need ice time this year before the lose their waiver eligibility. He expressly stated that this was the #1 reason for buying out Sekera - he needed to make room on the roster for Lagesson, Jones and Bear. Why would he go out an acquire another defensemen now, effectively blocking those players again?
Aug. 13, 2019 at 11:03 a.m.
#10
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Quoting: GMTD
So this line up would be in contention for last place over all and the first over all pick?
Why do you think that? Please be as specific as you can, I am really interested hearing your view point.



Quoting: GMTD
So this line up would be in contention for last place over all and the first over all pick?
Why do you think that? Please be as specific as you can, I am really interested hearing your view point.

Sam Gagner as the 2nd line center..
Aug. 13, 2019 at 11:04 a.m.
#11
Oil Country Rising
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Quoting: CD282
Is it? I doubt it very much. And Russell/Benning are only stand-ins anyhow, until the prospects are ready to take on the challenge.

In any case, I say that Edmonton has no interest in Ristolainen not because he's a terrible player, but because Holland has 3 prospect defensemen that need ice time this year before the lose their waiver eligibility. He expressly stated that this was the #1 reason for buying out Sekera - he needed to make room on the roster for Lagesson, Jones and Bear. Why would he go out an acquire another defensemen now, effectively blocking those players again?


Goals change when situations change.

Holland is right to plan for the assets he has, but if there's a way to improve the team and help his original overall goal of "playoffs in 19-20", then he pulls the trigger.
Icing 3 rookie D isnt adding to that goal.
Aug. 13, 2019 at 11:08 a.m.
#12
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Quoting: Miguelicious
Still better than having Russel/Benning rounding out the top 4


Benning has been very effective in the top-4 over the past 3 seasons, far more so than Ristolainen. But he has played a lot of 3rd pairing minutes too, so I had to find a way to separate the top-4 events from the 3rd pairing events in order to get a true picture of just how well he can cope with the higher level of competition.

To start with I used a proxy for “top-4” each year going back to 2016-17, based on TOI v Elites taken from puckiq.com, as follows:

2016-17: Sekera (35.5%), Klefbom (34.6)
2017-18: Nurse (34.9), Klefbom (32.3)
2018-19: Klefbom (35.1), Nurse (33.8)

Next I went to naturalstattrick.com and, using their “Teammates” tool, filtered all the stats for each year for the TOI Benning spent with each player listed above. I realize there were times when Russell-Benning were the 2nd pairing, but there may have been games that they were 3rd pairing too and I didn’t want to confuse the numbers with 3rd pairing data. Then too, who you play with is as important as who you play against, so showing those games where Russell-Benning played 2nd pairing probably doesn’t give us much information about potential combos this coming season, unless the injury bug strikes down 2-3 of the top-5 guys. For reference though, Russell-Benning were together just 21:04 in 2018-19 and outscored the competition 2-1. Negligible.

So I built an excel spreadsheet combining all the figures for Benning’s ice-time with the top two LHD for each season and the results were interesting to say the least. For the 3 years combined, 5v5 minutes in the top-4 only:

TOI: 1250:19
CF%: 52.79
FF%: 53.00
SF%: 53.17
GF%: 55.65

xGF%: 53.71
SCF%: 52.75
SCGF%: 56.99
HDCF%: 52.69
HDGF%: 56.72

Sh%: 9.51
Sv%: 91.75
PDO: 1.013

Again, this is just the time he spent in the top-4, these numbers don’t include any bottom-pairing play at all. This looks like a decent top-4 blueliner from here. Is it the McDavid push? Let’s look at the numbers with and without McDavid, filtered by the aforementioned top two LHD:

With McDavid

TOI: 420:30
CF%: 55.19
FF%: 56.65
SF%: 56.14
GF%: 62.96

xGF%: 56.10
SCF%: 55.27
HDCF%: 55.10
HDGF%: 59.38

Sh%: 14.05
Sv%: 90.73
PDO: 1.048

Without McDavid:

TOI: 829:47
CF%: 51.39
FF%: 50.88
SF%: 51.49
GF%: 49.18

xGF%: 52.06
SCF%: 50.97
HDCF%: 50.80
HDGF%: 54.29

Sh%: 8.20
Sv%: 94.67
PDO: 1.029

The truth is that Benning, even when playing top-4 minutes, isn’t getting a ton of “McDavid time”, just 33.6% of his TOI was spent with the world’s best center. Of course his numbers in those minutes are better, but he performed quite well even without the CMD push.

And then there’s this: Benning personally posted amazing boxcars during these minutes. His .912 points/60 puts him tied for 58th best defenseman in the NHL over the past 3 years, while his .29 goals/60 puts him in a 5 way tie for 24th, with Jones, Ekblad, Markov and our own Darnell Nurse. (I can’t believe so many Oilers fans are calling for these two to be traded). These are phenomenal numbers.

The list of marquee players that couldn’t match Benning’s .912 p/60 over the past 3 years is long, including Slavin, Petry, Morrissey, Ekholm, Heiskanen, Gostisbehere, Miller, Pesce, Ekman-Larsson, Parayko, Ekblad, Brodin, Doughty, Lindholm, Fowler, Ristolainen, Klefbom, Hamonic and Vatanen.

Now, I’m not suggesting that Matt Benning is a top-pairing guy or even a sure-fire top 4. I do know for sure that he’s played a reasonable amount of top-4 minutes over the past 3 years and has won those minutes even playing behind a piss-poor forward group. NONE of Edmonton's other top blueliners can touch Benning’s GF% without McDavid, and it isn’t close:

Benning: 49.18 (while in the top-4 only)
Nurse: 44.51
Russell: 43.87
Larsson: 43.68
Klefbom: 40.27
Sekera: 40.00 (includes 3rd pairing time)

For reference, Benning’s overall GF% without McDavid (including 3rd pairing time) is 51.45%.

If you want to counter with Ristolainen's numbers, I'll wait.
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Aug. 13, 2019 at 11:10 a.m.
#13
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Quoting: Miguelicious
Goals change when situations change.

Holland is right to plan for the assets he has, but if there's a way to improve the team and help his original overall goal of "playoffs in 19-20", then he pulls the trigger.
Icing 3 rookie D isnt adding to that goal.


He's had opportunities all summer, but all he's done (besides the Lucic-Neal trade) is sign a few cast-offs and minor-leaguers. Don't expect anything different now.
Aug. 13, 2019 at 11:11 a.m.
#14
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Eichel Tower
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Quoting: Sabres923
Sam Gagner as the 2nd line center..


I sort of thought this would be your reason.
Did you know that only McDavid, Draisaitl and Chiasson had more pts/min than he last year?
Did you know the year he played with Columbus, no one had a higher pts/min than he?
So you think putting Gagner as #2 center over Mittelstadt makes this a last place team?
Put him a good situation and he will produce well.
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Aug. 13, 2019 at 11:15 a.m.
#15
Oil Country Rising
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Quoting: CD282
Benning has been very effective in the top-4 over the past 3 seasons, far more so than Ristolainen. But he has played a lot of 3rd pairing minutes too, so I had to find a way to separate the top-4 events from the 3rd pairing events in order to get a true picture of just how well he can cope with the higher level of competition.

To start with I used a proxy for “top-4” each year going back to 2016-17, based on TOI v Elites taken from puckiq.com, as follows:

2016-17: Sekera (35.5%), Klefbom (34.6)
2017-18: Nurse (34.9), Klefbom (32.3)
2018-19: Klefbom (35.1), Nurse (33.8)

Next I went to naturalstattrick.com and, using their “Teammates” tool, filtered all the stats for each year for the TOI Benning spent with each player listed above. I realize there were times when Russell-Benning were the 2nd pairing, but there may have been games that they were 3rd pairing too and I didn’t want to confuse the numbers with 3rd pairing data. Then too, who you play with is as important as who you play against, so showing those games where Russell-Benning played 2nd pairing probably doesn’t give us much information about potential combos this coming season, unless the injury bug strikes down 2-3 of the top-5 guys. For reference though, Russell-Benning were together just 21:04 in 2018-19 and outscored the competition 2-1. Negligible.

So I built an excel spreadsheet combining all the figures for Benning’s ice-time with the top two LHD for each season and the results were interesting to say the least. For the 3 years combined, 5v5 minutes in the top-4 only:

TOI: 1250:19
CF%: 52.79
FF%: 53.00
SF%: 53.17
GF%: 55.65

xGF%: 53.71
SCF%: 52.75
SCGF%: 56.99
HDCF%: 52.69
HDGF%: 56.72

Sh%: 9.51
Sv%: 91.75
PDO: 1.013

Again, this is just the time he spent in the top-4, these numbers don’t include any bottom-pairing play at all. This looks like a decent top-4 blueliner from here. Is it the McDavid push? Let’s look at the numbers with and without McDavid, filtered by the aforementioned top two LHD:

With McDavid

TOI: 420:30
CF%: 55.19
FF%: 56.65
SF%: 56.14
GF%: 62.96

xGF%: 56.10
SCF%: 55.27
HDCF%: 55.10
HDGF%: 59.38

Sh%: 14.05
Sv%: 90.73
PDO: 1.048

Without McDavid:

TOI: 829:47
CF%: 51.39
FF%: 50.88
SF%: 51.49
GF%: 49.18

xGF%: 52.06
SCF%: 50.97
HDCF%: 50.80
HDGF%: 54.29

Sh%: 8.20
Sv%: 94.67
PDO: 1.029

The truth is that Benning, even when playing top-4 minutes, isn’t getting a ton of “McDavid time”, just 33.6% of his TOI was spent with the world’s best center. Of course his numbers in those minutes are better, but he performed quite well even without the CMD push.

And then there’s this: Benning personally posted amazing boxcars during these minutes. His .912 points/60 puts him tied for 58th best defenseman in the NHL over the past 3 years, while his .29 goals/60 puts him in a 5 way tie for 24th, with Jones, Ekblad, Markov and our own Darnell Nurse. (I can’t believe so many Oilers fans are calling for these two to be traded). These are phenomenal numbers.

The list of marquee players that couldn’t match Benning’s .912 p/60 over the past 3 years is long, including Slavin, Petry, Morrissey, Ekholm, Heiskanen, Gostisbehere, Miller, Pesce, Ekman-Larsson, Parayko, Ekblad, Brodin, Doughty, Lindholm, Fowler, Ristolainen, Klefbom, Hamonic and Vatanen.

Now, I’m not suggesting that Matt Benning is a top-pairing guy or even a sure-fire top 4. I do know for sure that he’s played a reasonable amount of top-4 minutes over the past 3 years and has won those minutes even playing behind a piss-poor forward group. NONE of Edmonton's other top blueliners can touch Benning’s GF% without McDavid, and it isn’t close:

Benning: 49.18 (while in the top-4 only)
Nurse: 44.51
Russell: 43.87
Larsson: 43.68
Klefbom: 40.27
Sekera: 40.00 (includes 3rd pairing time)

For reference, Benning’s overall GF% without McDavid (including 3rd pairing time) is 51.45%.


This seems oddly familiar. Were you the Benning superfan I argued with in the last couple months?
If so, Benning is a good 3rd pairing D. I'd keep him there and let him flourish.

He's failed the eye test for me, some of the fanbase, and NHL pundits calling him "ineffective in a top 4 role".
No amount of "well if he plays on a tuesday and he has a hotdog for lunch, his corsi for jumps by 35.94%" something or other data will drastically change my opinion of him.

All that's changed is that I'm not that anti-Benning as I used to. We put in the time to develop this guy, might as well see him through until someone better (Bouchard and Risto) come along.
Aug. 13, 2019 at 11:16 a.m.
#16
BootBoi
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ENORMOUS&JUICY YES PLEASE from ED!!
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Aug. 13, 2019 at 11:19 a.m.
#17
Oil Country Rising
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Quoting: CD282
He's had opportunities all summer, but all he's done (besides the Lucic-Neal trade) is sign a few cast-offs and minor-leaguers. Don't expect anything different now.


You really can't see the reasoning behind it, cant you?

1 year deals are what we needed. Diving headfirst into another overpriced UFA is the wrong move, especially for a franchise with its nutsack caught in the cap trap.
Holland has been awesome.
Aug. 13, 2019 at 11:28 a.m.
#18
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Quoting: Miguelicious
This seems oddly familiar. Were you the Benning superfan I argued with in the last couple months?
If so, Benning is a good 3rd pairing D. I'd keep him there and let him flourish.

He's failed the eye test for me, some of the fanbase, and NHL pundits calling him "ineffective in a top 4 role".
No amount of "well if he plays on a tuesday and he has a hotdog for lunch, his corsi for jumps by 35.94%" something or other data will drastically change my opinion of him.

All that's changed is that I'm not that anti-Benning as I used to. We put in the time to develop this guy, might as well see him through until someone better (Bouchard and Risto) come along.


I don't give a **** about your eye-test or anybody else's either. The facts are that Benning has played a fair amount of top-4 minutes over the past 3 years and has been very effective in those minutes.
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Aug. 13, 2019 at 11:30 a.m.
#19
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Quoting: Miguelicious
You really can't see the reasoning behind it, cant you?

1 year deals are what we needed. Diving headfirst into another overpriced UFA is the wrong move, especially for a franchise with its nutsack caught in the cap trap.
Holland has been awesome.


Why do we need 1 year deals? Why is hiring good players at reasonable rates not moving the team forward? There were quite a few UFA's who signed for reasonable numbers this summer, they aren't all "overpriced" as you seem to think. Outside of the Lucic-Neal swap, Holland has done NOTHING to move the team forward this summer. Nothing.
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Aug. 13, 2019 at 11:31 a.m.
#20
Oil Country Rising
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Quoting: CD282
I don't give a **** about your eye-test or anybody else's either. The facts are that Benning has played a fair amount of top-4 minutes over the past 3 years and has been very effective in those minutes.


Says you. Literally only you.
People who get paid to talk hockey say Benning is crap.
If you can't accept that, that's on you.
Aug. 13, 2019 at 11:35 a.m.
#21
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Eichel Tower
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Edited Aug. 13, 2019 at 11:41 a.m.
Quoting: CD282
Benning has been very effective in the top-4 over the past 3 seasons, far more so than Ristolainen. But he has played a lot of 3rd pairing minutes too, so I had to find a way to separate the top-4 events from the 3rd pairing events in order to get a true picture of just how well he can cope with the higher level of competition.
If you want to counter with Ristolainen's numbers, I'll wait.


Oh my word what a detailed stats analysis, I loved it.
I agree with you that Benning is a good defenseman and this trade probably does not work for Edmonton. As I said I saw it earlier and wanted to get additional comments, which I did and yours was by far the most detailed.
I will not disagree with your assessment, I wish I could develop as much information as you do, but it comes down to what the GM thinks. Larsson for Hall may be the most obvious example, and Betterall has made some remarkable trades this past 6 months (Miller for a 2nd and Jokiharju for Nylander). IMO he will find a buyer who will pay his price, or Ristolainen will be a Sabre this year. I will add, big players take longer to develop, defensemen take longer to develop, so IMO we have not seen the best of Ristolainen.
I liked this trade when I first saw it because I think Gagner can be that 50 pt forward that Buffalo needs, then 2 prospects, a pick and it cut the Sabres cap by $2,000,000..
I tend to agree with many of the comments above that Holland will not make big splashes, another ACGM mentioned that he signed a couple of good PK forwards, those are the moves that are low keyed that will make a team a winner.
I noted that you are an Oiler fan, so you know your team far better than I.
Thanks for the great analysis.
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Aug. 13, 2019 at 11:35 a.m.
#22
Oil Country Rising
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Quoting: CD282
Why do we need 1 year deals? Why is hiring good players at reasonable rates not moving the team forward? There were quite a few UFA's who signed for reasonable numbers this summer, they aren't all "overpriced" as you seem to think. Outside of the Lucic-Neal swap, Holland has done NOTHING to move the team forward this summer. Nothing.


Because more important pieces need to be the priority:
Nurse extension, Jones if he pans out, fixing the cap issue from Chiarelli, evaluating as a new GM instead of going in guns blazing..

Not screwing that up by adding a bigtime bigname UFA until the smoke clears, and the dust settles is what is needed at this time.

Are you secretly Peter Chiarelli? lmfao
Aug. 13, 2019 at 11:42 a.m.
#23
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Quoting: Miguelicious


Not screwing that up by adding a bigtime bigname UFA


NObody is suggesting this. Maybe you should look up "comprehension".
Aug. 13, 2019 at 12:00 p.m.
#24
Oil Country Rising
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Quoting: CD282
NObody is suggesting this. Maybe you should look up "comprehension".


Could it have something to do with the fact that maybe players who signed for fair market value are signing in a place that isnt, oh I dont know.. Edmonton.
I love my city, but it sure as hell aint perfect. No, players are people too, they have wives that may or may not be picky.. they may have kids that don't want to leave.
If the money's the same (or more in FLA's case) then Edmonton wouldve had to up the offer to win the bid. Hence, OVERPAYING.

"I'll take sunshine and no taxes at the same AAV for $1000, Alex"
Aug. 13, 2019 at 1:35 p.m.
#25
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Quoting: Miguelicious
Could it have something to do with the fact that maybe players who signed for fair market value are signing in a place that isnt, oh I dont know.. Edmonton.
I love my city, but it sure as hell aint perfect. No, players are people too, they have wives that may or may not be picky.. they may have kids that don't want to leave.
If the money's the same (or more in FLA's case) then Edmonton wouldve had to up the offer to win the bid. Hence, OVERPAYING.

"I'll take sunshine and no taxes at the same AAV for $1000, Alex"


If Holland structured the contract so most of the money was paid in the offseason, the tax thing isn't an issue.

Also, you underestimate the draw of having the best player in the world locked up for 7 more years.
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