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I know that a lot of Leaf fans are frustrated that Marner isn’t willing to take less money to help this Leafs team win, however, I don’t think any of their other star forwards have taken a discount either.

John Tavares is making 11 million. Sidney Crosby signed his second big contract as a UFA in 2013-14 with the Penguins when the salary cap was 63.4 million, so divide that from last season’s 79 million, the cap has inflated by 1.285%. Sid’s contract would’be been worth 11.2 million dollars AAV by the time Tavares signed his 11 million dollar AAV deal. No matter how you put it, Crosby is better than Tavares by quite a bit, if he was worth 11.2 million in 2018-19, Tavares should’ve been got 10 million maximum.

Next up is Auston Matthews. My comparable for him is Evgeni Malkin. In 2009-10 when Malkin signed his 8.7 million dollar AAV contract following the expiry of his entry level deal, the salary cap was 56.7 million, 1.437% less than today’s cap hit which is what Matthews signed. Malkin’s deal at the time would’ve been worth 12.5 million dollars today. I would argue that Matthews currently is not as good as Malkin in 2009, considering Malkin at the time his entry level deal expired had already won a scoring title and playoff MVP, plus had a points per game average of 1.19 in the dead tree defenseman era. Malkin’s most frequent linemate was Sykora, whom I would argue is less talented than Nylander who frequently pairs with Matthews. The maximum Matthews should’ve made was 11 million.

For William Nylander, his 7 million AAV isn’t bad but he didn’t take a discount either. A comparable for Nylander is Gaudreau. When Johnny signed his 6.7 million AAV deal in 16-17 for the same term, the cap ceiling was 73 million, around 1.08% less than the 79 million last season. Last season his deal would’ve been worth 7.2 million AAV. That’s only .3 million more value than Nylander’s contract. Gaudreau had 1 season with 64 points & another with 80 points. His centre was Monahan, who is excellent but he’s not as talented as Matthews,yet Nylander only managed 61 points as a career high, therefore his maximum AAV for the 6 year term should’ve been 6.25 million.

A comparable for Mitch Marner would be Patrick Kane. After his expiry deal, Kane was making a 6.3 million AAV for 5 years with the cap ceiling at 56.7 million dollars. If he was signing that same contract today, it would be worth 9.5 million. At the time, Kane was obviously better than Marner is right now, so a fair market value for Mitch would be 8.25 million. However, all the other Leaf forwards are making more than what they deserve, so why should Marner take less?

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I am also interested in hearing the views from fans outside of Toronto regarding this issue.

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The Crosby comparison is used a lot and falls flat because people forget it was signed using the old system for well over 7 years with added on low salary years at the end to bring the cap down. He made an average of 9.8 million in his first 7 years. If you inflate that by 1.285 x as you suggested you get 12.6. Well above what Tavares is earning.

I am a Leafs fan and I dont expect marner to take a cheap deal to help the Leafs win. I want him to take a fair deal. And there is no actual comparable to him that is anywhere near what he is asking. The only argument he has for anywhere near what he wants is he thinks he's as valuable as Matthews.

Otherwise the highest paid winger coming off an ELC in this CBA is tarasenko at 7.5*8 years and he had a less impressive contract year to Tarasenko. Inflate that up and it's about 8.7 million for 8

55 million for 6 years, 9'166'667.
58 million for 6 years, 9'666'667 if he wants to one up Kucherov.

Speeza is a comparable for a ELC bridge deal, he scored 90 points in his 3rd season and his 2 year bridge deal was worth 4.5 million or 10.23 Salary Cap %. That places Marner's worth on a bridge deal in the 8 million range.

Wasn’t Malkin coming off a 36 point in 22 playoff game cup final run with a 47 goal season and a 106 point season under his belt?

I think the Matthews contract changed everything

Well even if Crosby’s contract was worth 12.6 million AAV in last season’s market, it’s only a little bit above what Tavares made. Based off the level of their play they should be at least 2.5 million dollars separate, plus Crosby was 2 years younger at the time.

Salary cap in 2014-15 was 69M, so Tarasenko’s contract today would be worth 8.9 million. However, I would argue Marner has done better throughout his entry level deal than Tarasenko. Vlad has always been the better goal scorer, but Mitch has so far demonstrated a better all round game. I believe they are equal in stick handling and dangling, but Marner has demonstrated superior agility, vision, playmaking and creativity. He also finished 14th in Selke voting last season. It is true that Marner played with Tavares whereas Tarasenko played with Stastny, a less talented centre. However 94 points compared to 73 points should still be enough justify that Marner is the slightly better offensive player.

Therefore I think Marner should be paid a tiny bit more than Tarasenko.

If im Marner, Im not taking a discount and asking for no less than $11m Per just like 34 & 91. I mean u can go thru all the numbers & comparing this player to this player.... But bottom line is that 1 of the demands made by JT was to make sure he was going to have Marner on his wing bc he knows how special he is. Yah, yah he isnt a Center but the kid is a play maker just like a Center, Plays Defense like a Center, and the kid is a superstar and plays on the PK... and u gota love that.

Sorry that a deliberately misleading statement......You really think ALL the other Leaf forwards are making more than they deserve? Silly statement. The Leafs would be so far over the cap if that was true.

That argument that just because two Leafs RFA forwards (Nylander and Matthews) were overpaid then so should all other Leafs forwards should be overpaid till infinity doesn't wash with me. Similarly if a team has somehow underpaid their top stars, then the next wave of RFAs should be underpaid too? That ain't happening in league where salaries are based on league wide comparables not just a teams pay structure.
Now I understand Marner might think he deserves to paid more than what the Leafs are offering. That's OK. He can feel that way, and he can refuse to sign with the Leafs.
Don't know of one Leaf fan who thinks Marner should be underpaid by league standards (what ever that standard is), but to me there are a majority of non Leaf fans think Marner should be overpaid by the Leafs, and by Leafs only.
Marner and all the other unsigned RFAs have the right to sign with any team in the world, including any NHL team. So if Marner has been offered that much more money than any teams, he should sign with that team. And if he still has a minimum number that he won't sign any less (let's say 11.642m), well that's his privilege, just that he may not sign another pro contract.

The bottom line is that u can NOT have 3 players making $33-$35m ..... Marner will get traded to the Pens and win back to back cups as the 2nd RW the Leafs Circus ran off.

Stop or I'm going to block you.

The 94 vs 73 is just because the scoring is up. The highest scorer scored under 90 points in Tarasenko's contract year to Kucherov's 128.

Marner was 11th in points to Tarasenko's 10th I believe (too lazy to look it up again).

And just to expand. Goals are worth more and he didn't score more relative to scoring that year. And tarasenko had ****tier line mates. Marner should make less. But if you want to give him a little more than the prorate 8.9 over 8 years I'll accept it just to end it. Give him 9.25 over 8 years.

But you do you think was better in his prime, Wayne Gretzky, or Wayne Primeau?

you're ****ing hilarious now **** off

Gee, I can't think of team that has a 3 players making 33 to 35 million. Do you?

Ummm, Nope but if the Leafs do and pay Marner $10.37m or more they will or they will have 4 players making almost 50% of the cap... and thats just Insane in the Cap pain.

I can't go into a detailed response right now but for now I'm quotating someone who made a very good in another discussion about Marner:



And that's true. So if Marner is asking whatever he's asking for, then at some point he's going to have to come down too.
I mean what's the alternative? He sits for the season?

I know you view the upcoming season différently than I do..and that's fine...I don't believe they can make big strides in the playoffs with the way things are unfolding so if I was managing the Leafs, I'd let him sit the entire year if it came to that.

Though it may not be the preferred route, there are lots of teams that might have almost 50% of the cap with five players. It's not like the Leafs are so much different some other teams. And if the new salary structure is for RFAs to get closer to UFA money, very soon the teams that now players on ELC will have the same salary structure as Leafs very soon.

At least he didn't tag all those people just to ask if Toews doesn't like having Kunitz in the locker room.

Everyone should stop with the comparables. If you're using the Aho comparable, Marner is an 8M player. Or you could use the Matthews comparable, which would make Marner a 10M or so player.

It's only a problem when you have bad contracts that don't offer value. TO has zero bad contracts, stars getting stat money is never the problem. It's depth guys making mid range money that kills you in the cap era.

That is correct, he won the Conn Smythe trophy and Art Ross that season. In his first 3 seasons, he had 85 points in 75 games, 106 points in 82 games and 113 in 82 games for his contract year. When he signed his contract (8.7 million AAV for 5 years, approximately 12.5 million AAV in today’s salary cap era), I don’t think anyone could complain about it being an overpay. Matthews finishes his ELC as a below point per game player in both regular season and playoffs. Keep in mind this is an era where it is easier to generate offence than Malkin’s era. Also no individual awards except the Calder, yet he’s making an almost identical value contract to Malkin. You are right, I think this is why every major RFA has been holding out this summer.

To be honest, it does appear that only the Leafs are required to overpay Marner to retain his services. It’s only fair because Tavares, Matthews and Nylander are all getting more than they deserve as well, so why should Marner take less than the 8.9 million AAV what he is worth?

Toronto did this to themselves...they should have extended Matthews and Marner at the same exact time just like the Hawks did with Kane and Toews. Kyle Dubas is a great GM in terms of finding talent but the fact that he’s on the verge of having two major holdouts in back to back seasons is very telling to me.