Forums/Armchair-GM

My Final Word on a Marner Contract

Created by: Random2152
Initial Creation Date: Aug 16, 2019
Published: Aug 17 at 3:46 pm
Team: 2019-20 Toronto Maple Leafs
Team Explanation
For those of you who do not want to read this lengthy post, the tl;dr version is I will live with a 7@10.5aav deal (all in SB's and with a 20+ team NTC/NMC). It is an overpayment by ~1-1.5 million, but considering all young stars are underpaid relative to their production (even McDavid, Matthews, and insert young star here) I will live with it.
Below is a projected Leafs roster with the 'fair' Marner contract.

For those of you who want to see contract comparables and a deeper breakdown; grab the popcorn.

Going based on news (Matthews) and my opinions/100% factual statements (not Matthews) here are a list of contract comparables for Marner (in no particular order). There are other comparable players but I will only be profiling some of the more prominent ones who currently have a contract.
Before you start, remember that the Matthews deal was signed in a new era of contracts for star centres so his % is by far the highest (that and the fact that he isn't a comparable for any of these players except for Kane).

Name - Contract - Starting Year - Cap% of starting year

Matthews- 5@11.634 - 2019-20 - 14.27%
Kane-------- 5@6.300 - 2010-11 - 10.61%
Tarasenko- 8@7.500 - 2015-16 - 10.50%
Aho---------- 5@8.454 - 2019-20 - 10.37%
Nylander-- 6@6.962 - 2018-19 - 8.76%
Pastrnak-- 6@6.666 - 2017-18 - 8.89%
Gaudreau- 6@6.750 - 2016-17 - 9.25%
Meier------- 4@6.000 - 2019-20 - 7.36%

A basic average on the term and the % gives you a contract of 5.625 years at a 10% hit. That gives you roughly a 5@8 - 6@8.5 which is right around the Aho contract and intrinsically is fairly close in terms of Marner's actual value on that term. At this point however, I do not think he will get his intrinsic worth and will be badly overpaid.

Basic counting stats (in per game for context):
Name - Year 1 GPG/PPG - Year 2 GPG/PPG - Year 3 GPG/PPG - etc, until 2nd contract starts

Matthews-- 0.49/0.84 - 0.55/1.02 - 0.54/1.07
Kane--------- 0.26/0.88 - 0.31/0.88 - 0.37/1.07
Tarasenko- 0.21/0.29 - 0.33/0.67 - 0.48/0.95
Aho---------- 0.29/0.60 - 0.37/0.83 - 0.37/1.01
Marner----- 0.25/0.79 - 0.27/0.84 - 0.32/1.15
Nylander--- 0.27/.059 - 0.27-0.75 - 0.24-0.74
Pastrnak--- 0.22/0.59 - 0.29/0.51 - 0.45/0.93
Gaudreau- 1.00/1.00 - 0.30/0.80 - 0.38/0.99
Meier------- 0.09/0.18 - 0.26/0.44

Basic counting stats (in /pg context) essentially show that (Auston Matthews is a ****ing beast) Marner is extremely comparable with players like Aho and Gaudreau, and is a step above Nylander while being multiple steps below Matthews.

Going off of this we can guess at a 'fair' contract as being the average of Gaudreau and Aho's deals. That comes to 5.5@9.81% or 5.5@8. Gaudreau was signed in a past RFA contract scenario, so I think it would be fair to add up to 1 million to this aav in order to account for this (surpassing the Aho deal in he skew). Strictly value wise this is what he is worth and my highest 'fair' valuation on him of 6@9.000 seems mostly in line with this projection. I will be basing any contract signed off of this number, and will be shocked if he comes in anywhere near it from the news I have been hearing.

As CF doesn't have the ability to put images in these descriptions, I will be adding the advanced metrics down below to show how Meier is better than his counting stats show and how Mitch and Aho are very close.

As a conclusion to this; I will say that I will be able to live with a deal that surpasses his intrinsic value as long as it comes with term. I would be okay with up to 7@10.5aav based on his age and the fact that he should continue to get better. I am still irked that JT took a large discount to come here just for Mitch to put the teams financial future in jeopardy by demanding a massive overpayment and am annoyed at Shanahan and Dubas for (reportedly) giving it to him.
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
Marner, Mitchell6$9,000,000
Buyouts
  • Mikhail Grabovski: $0
Retained Salary Transactions
  • Phil Kessel: $1,200,000 (15%)
DRAFT YEARROUND 1ROUND 2ROUND 3ROUND 4ROUND 5ROUND 6ROUND 7
2020
TOR
CBJ
TOR
VGK
TOR
CAR
COL
EDM
SJS
STL
WPG
2021
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
2022
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES BONUSESCAP SPACE
22$81,500,000$80,959,699$0$0$540,301
Left WingCenterRight Wing
TOR
Hyman, Zach
$2,250,000
LW
NTC
UFA - 2
TOR
Tavares, John
$11,000,000
C
NMC
UFA - 6
TOR
Marner, Mitchell
$9,000,000
RW
UFA - 6
TOR
Johnsson, Andreas
$3,400,000
LW
UFA - 4
TOR
Matthews, Auston
$11,634,000
C
UFA - 5
TOR
Nylander, William
$6,962,366
RW, C
UFA - 5
TOR
Mikheyev, Ilya
$925,000
LW, RW
RFA - 1
TOR
Kerfoot, Alexander
$3,500,000
C, LW
UFA - 4
TOR
Kapanen, Kasperi
$3,200,000
RW
RFA - 3
TOR
Moore, Trevor
$775,000
RW, LW
RFA - 2
TOR
Spezza, Jason
$700,000
C, RW
NTC
UFA - 1
TOR
Shore, Nick
$750,000
C
UFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
TOR
Muzzin, Jake
$4,000,000
LD
UFA - 1
TOR
Barrie, Tyson
$2,750,000
RD
UFA - 1
TOR
Andersen, Frederik
$5,000,000
G
NTC
UFA - 2
TOR
Rielly, Morgan
$5,000,000
LD
UFA - 3
TOR
Ceci, Cody
$4,500,000
RD
UFA - 1
TOR
Hutchinson, Michael
$700,000
G
UFA - 1
TOR
Marincin, Martin
$700,000
LD
UFA - 1
TOR
Schmaltz, Jordan
$700,000
RD
RFA - 1
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
TOR
Petan, Nicolas
$775,000
LW, RW, C
RFA - 2
TOR
Dermott, Travis
$863,333
LD
RFA - 1
TOR
Clarkson, David
$5,250,000
RW
NMC NTC
UFA - 1
TOR
Holl, Justin
$675,000
RD
UFA - 1
TOR
Horton, Nathan
$5,300,000
RW
NMC NTC
UFA - 1

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Aug 17 at 3:52
#1
The evil stats guy
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 3,999
Likes: 1,659
Here are the advanced numbers
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ECMkimpW4AAkR4U?format=png&name=360x360
ECMkimuW4AEC2Yh?format=png&name=360x360
ECMkimqXUAAkdFZ?format=png&name=360x360
ECMkimqX4AE1kvU?format=png&name=360x360
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ECMklASXkAAI02j?format=png&name=360x360
ECMklATXoAEuseA?format=png&name=360x360
ECMklASWsAAgCGO?format=png&name=360x360
ECMkqRiXYAAsscv?format=png&name=360x360
ECMkqRlXkAAK6FR?format=png&name=360x360
ECMkqRpWkAUQLyG?format=png&name=360x360
ECMkqRuXsAIhmr8?format=png&name=360x360
ECMkuAPWsAUI616?format=png&name=360x360
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ECMkuAhXkAARlsf?format=png&name=360x360
ECMkuAgWkAAmnWp?format=png&name=360x360
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Aug 17 at 3:52
#2
BrandonDubinskyGoat
Joined: Apr 2019
Posts: 2,164
Likes: 453
I do think Marner’s value is at around 9 million dollars on a 5-6 year deal however I disagree with your take. Marner is closer to Matthews and Tavares’ level than he is to Nylander. When you look at too many advanced metrics, you get brainwashed into believing that Nylander is better than Marner, and now you even believe that Meier is better than Marner. In hockey nothing beats the eye test, especially if you’ve been playing competitively for many years like myself. But hey, keep on reading advanced metrics because they’ll tell you that Toews is better than Crosby.
Aug 17 at 3:56
#3
BrandonDubinskyGoat
Joined: Apr 2019
Posts: 2,164
Likes: 453
Quoting: Random2152
Here are the advanced numbers
ECMkoFIWsAMnWbz?format=jpg&name=small
ECMkimpW4AAkR4U?format=png&name=360x360
ECMkimuW4AEC2Yh?format=png&name=360x360
ECMkimqXUAAkdFZ?format=png&name=360x360
ECMkimqX4AE1kvU?format=png&name=360x360
ECMklANXsAMlCWz?format=png&name=360x360
ECMklASXkAAI02j?format=png&name=360x360
ECMklATXoAEuseA?format=png&name=360x360
ECMklASWsAAgCGO?format=png&name=360x360
ECMkqRiXYAAsscv?format=png&name=360x360
ECMkqRlXkAAK6FR?format=png&name=360x360
ECMkqRpWkAUQLyG?format=png&name=360x360
ECMkqRuXsAIhmr8?format=png&name=360x360
ECMkuAPWsAUI616?format=png&name=360x360
ECMkuAaX4AAcGbt?format=png&name=360x360
ECMkuAhXkAARlsf?format=png&name=360x360
ECMkuAgWkAAmnWp?format=png&name=360x360


You’re the same person that told me Malkin isn’t a top 3 center of his generation. Malkin after his first 3 seasons was better than Matthews is now, sorry that facts don’t care for your feelings.
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Aug 17 at 3:57
#4
Thread Starter
The evil stats guy
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 3,999
Likes: 1,659
Quoting: BrandonDubinskyGOAT
I think Marner’s value is at around 9 million dollars on a 5-6 year deal however I disagree with your take. Marner is closer to Matthews and Tavares’ level than he is to Nylander. When you look at too many advanced metrics, you get brainwashed into believing that Nylander is better than Marner, and now you even believe that Meier is better than Marner. In hockey nothing beats the eye test, especially if you’ve been playing competitively for many years like myself. But hey, keep on reading advanced metrics because they’ll tell you that Toews is better than Crosby.


Im not sure anyone seriously thinks Nylander is better than Marner. He is better at some aspects (Possession namely), but Marner is a step ahead. The important part to realise is that he is a STEP ahead, not 50.
I have also played competitive hockey for years. One of my former coaches is currently the AGM of an NHL team.
I never said Meier was better than Marner. This is entirely projection.
Again with the Towes is better than Crosby, I never said that lol. I even have Crosby as the 2nd best C in the world lol (Crosby is also a stats Darling).
Advanced Metrics are a tool to help judge players and should always be used IN CONJUNCTION with things like the eye test.
ECMmvftXUAIKeSi?format=png&name=small
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Aug 17 at 3:59
#5
Thread Starter
The evil stats guy
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 3,999
Likes: 1,659
Quoting: BrandonDubinskyGOAT
You’re the same person that told me Malkin isn’t a top 3 center of his generation. Malkin after his first 3 seasons was better than Matthews is now, sorry that facts don’t care for your feelings.


Malkin is not the 3rd best centre in the league right now lol. If you want to consider his career, I will put him top 5 for sure, but as it stands right now, he is not #3 lol. You're ****ing delusional.
sorry that facts don’t care for your feelings.
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Aug 17 at 4:00
#6
BrandonDubinskyGoat
Joined: Apr 2019
Posts: 2,164
Likes: 453
Quoting: Random2152
Im not sure anyone seriously thinks Nylander is better than Marner. He is better at some aspects (Possession namely), but Marner is a step ahead. The important part to realise is that he is a STEP ahead, not 50.
I have also played competitive hockey for years. One of my former coaches is currently the AGM of an NHL team.
I never said Meier was better than Marner. This is entirely projection.
Again with the Towes is better than Crosby, I never said that lol. I even have Crosby as the 2nd best C in the world lol (Crosby is also a stats Darling).
Advanced Metrics are a tool to help judge players and should always be used IN CONJUNCTION with things like the eye test.
ECMmvftXUAIKeSi?format=png&name=small


I know that you didn’t say it but I’m just telling ya, from 2010-15, almost every advanced metric suggested Toews to be a better player than Crosby.
Aug 17 at 4:03
#7
Thread Starter
The evil stats guy
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 3,999
Likes: 1,659
Quoting: BrandonDubinskyGOAT
I know that you didn’t say it but I’m just telling ya, from 2010-15, almost every advanced metric suggested Toews to be a better player than Crosby.


No they didn't. Cite your damn sources.

I also wanted to add that I don't just use adv metrics here. The main one in the desc is goals and points.
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Aug 17 at 4:03
#8
BrandonDubinskyGoat
Joined: Apr 2019
Posts: 2,164
Likes: 453
Quoting: Random2152
Malkin is not the 3rd best centre in the league right now lol. If you want to consider his career, I will put him top 5 for sure, but as it stands right now, he is not #3 lol. You're ****ing delusional.
sorry that facts don’t care for your feelings.


Wrong. Malkin is not only a top 3 center, he is a top 3 PLAYER of his generation behind Crosby and Ovechkin.
Aug 17 at 4:06
#9
Thread Starter
The evil stats guy
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 3,999
Likes: 1,659
Quoting: BrandonDubinskyGOAT
Wrong. Malkin is not only a top 3 center, he is a top 3 PLAYER of his generation behind Crosby and Ovechkin.


Arguing over specific numbers is why I prefer to use tiers, but Malkin is Firmly in the 2nd tier of player. He is not in the convo with Sid.
As it stands THIS YEAR, Malkin is not #3.

Generational: Crosby-McDavid
Franchise: Malkin-Barkov-Couturier-Matthews-Tavares-Stamkos-etc
Top Talents: Marner-Aho-Pasternak-etc
Great top 6: Nylander-etc
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Aug 17 at 4:12
#10
Joined: Aug 2019
Posts: 8
Likes: 1
Matthews is a beast lol but only plays 66% of the games anyone can find stats to prove anything, Ryan Poehling had a 16 p/60, Matthews was a 3.5 sure he only played one game apparently that doesn't matter. Dubas is a joke and caused this situation by signing JT to a contract that he doesn't deserve and is now paying the price, everyone is paying the price for his stupidity.
Aug 17 at 4:14
#11
Thread Starter
The evil stats guy
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 3,999
Likes: 1,659
Quoting: Psj14
Matthews is a beast lol but only plays 66% of the games anyone can find stats to prove anything, Ryan Poehling had a 16 p/60, Matthews was a 3.5 sure he only played one game apparently that doesn't matter. Dubas is a joke and caused this situation by signing JT to a contract that he doesn't deserve and is now paying the price, everyone is paying the price for his stupidity.


What?!? JT is worth every penny lol.
And these stats are over years with a massive number of games played. There is no small sample sizes that affect this.

Your entire comment has nothing to do with the thread and is just... wrong in every way imaginable. Reconsider your life.
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Aug 17 at 4:14
#12
BtZ's buttercup
Joined: May 2018
Posts: 2,382
Likes: 1,252
Good points, I might be able to live with this if I had to.
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Aug 17 at 4:17
#13
Joined: Mar 2019
Posts: 823
Likes: 830
Quoting: BrandonDubinskyGOAT
When you look at too many advanced metrics, you get brainwashed into believing that Nylander is better than Marner, and now you even believe that Meier is better than Marner.


If this is what you're bringing to a debate about advanced stats/Marner let me save you some time: you are talking to the wrong people.
Yeah there are 1 or 2 advanced stats where Nylander looks better than Marner but....Marner is much better than Nylander in all the other advanced stats catagories which...breaking news!!! Shows Marner is better than Nylander.

Omg....I can't believe I had to actually say this. SMH
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Aug 17 at 4:17
#14
BrandonDubinskyGoat
Joined: Apr 2019
Posts: 2,164
Likes: 453
Quoting: Random2152
Arguing over specific numbers is why I prefer to use tiers, but Malkin is Firmly in the 2nd tier of player. He is not in the convo with Sid.
As it stands THIS YEAR, Malkin is not #3.

Generational: Crosby-McDavid
Franchise: Malkin-Barkov-Couturier-Matthews-Tavares-Stamkos-etc
Top Talents: Marner-Aho-Pasternak-etc
Great top 6: Nylander-etc


I disagree, Malkin is a step above all the other franchise players you’ve mentioned. You seriously think Couturier and Barkov are better or even on the same level as Malkin at his peak? If you do then you’re delusional.

Over the last decade amongst active players:

Generational: Crosby, Ovechkin, McDavid

Elite Franchise: Malkin, Kane, MacKinnon

Franchise: Matthews, Tavares, Stamkos, Barkov
Aug 17 at 4:20
#15
BrandonDubinskyGoat
Joined: Apr 2019
Posts: 2,164
Likes: 453
Quoting: oneX
If this is what you're bringing to a debate about advanced stats/Marner let me save you some time: you are talking to the wrong people.
Yeah there are 1 or 2 advanced stats where Nylander looks better than Marner but....Marner is much better than Nylander in all the other advanced stats catagories which...breaking news!!! Shows Marner is better than Nylander.

Omg....I can't believe I had to actually say this. SMH


Literally every advanced stat Stephen Burtch pulled out demonstrated that Nylander is a far better player than Marner.
Aug 17 at 4:20
#16
Thread Starter
The evil stats guy
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 3,999
Likes: 1,659
Quoting: BrandonDubinskyGOAT
I disagree, Malkin is a step above all the other franchise players you’ve mentioned. You seriously think Couturier and Barkov are better or even on the same level as Malkin at his peak? If you do then you’re delusional.

Over the last decade amongst active players:

Generational: Crosby, Ovechkin, McDavid

Elite Franchise: Malkin, Kane, MacKinnon

Franchise: Matthews, Tavares, Stamkos, Barkov


Im not talking about the last decade. I am talking about TODAY.
And I would take one of Barkov and Couturier on my team before Malkin if I were building a roster TODAY.
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Aug 17 at 4:22
#17
Joined: Aug 2019
Posts: 8
Likes: 1
Quoting: Random2152
What?!? JT is worth every penny lol.
And these stats are over years with a massive number of games played. There is no small sample sizes that affect this.

Your entire comment has nothing to do with the thread and is just... wrong in every way imaginable. Reconsider your life.


Playing a full season is not a crime and punishing someone for being able to do so is ignorant Matthews is soft, Marnier is a better player and should be the highest payed leaf the fact all the leafs stars are overpaid is not the players fault it's a management problem now live with it.
Aug 17 at 4:22
#18
Thread Starter
The evil stats guy
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 3,999
Likes: 1,659
Quoting: BrandonDubinskyGOAT
Literally every advanced stat Stephen Burtch pulled out demonstrated that Nylander is a far better player than Marner.


Cite.
Your.
Sources.

A link, embedded picture, and show that there are none that have Mitch above Nylander.
Nylander is a better player at certain things, just as Marner is too. To ignore the latter in a debate about stats is absurd.
Aug 17 at 4:22
#19
Joined: Nov 2018
Posts: 2,283
Likes: 493
I like the last sentence in your write up is a lie, I highly doubt the rumor that J.T. was getting an offer of 13 million. So J.T. didn't take a hometown discount. I've never seen a confirmed report by a reliable source stating that the Sharks offered 13 million.
Aug 17 at 4:23
#20
Thread Starter
The evil stats guy
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 3,999
Likes: 1,659
Quoting: Psj14
Playing a full season is not a crime and punishing someone for being able to do so is ignorant Matthews is soft, Marnier is a better player and should be the highest payed leaf the fact all the leafs stars are overpaid is not the players fault it's a management problem now live with it.


Just lol. You have to be a troll. There is no way someone could be this stupid.
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Aug 17 at 4:23
#21
Thread Starter
The evil stats guy
Joined: Jun 2018
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Quoting: draft_em_sign_em_trade_em
I like the last sentence in your write up is a lie, I highly doubt the rumor that J.T. was getting an offer of 13 million. So J.T. didn't take a hometown discount. I've never seen a confirmed report by a reliable source stating that the Sharks offered 13 million.


Then you didn't look lol.

https://www.tsn.ca/tavares-took-less-money-to-come-home-1.1128490
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Aug 17 at 4:24
#22
LongtimeLeafsufferer
Joined: Jul 2015
Posts: 28,160
Likes: 6,347
Edited Aug 17 at 4:34
Don't think we can comparable salaries base on contracts that were signed four years ago. It's the last two years of RFA signings that should be comparables. And when all the current RFAs get signed then there will be a good base.
Agree with 10.5 X 7 figure....seems high but liveable. It's about the same Eichel and certainly is premium over the very comparable Aho.
Don't think the UFA Tavares has much affect on the RFAs at all. Players don't get "short changed" because of highly paid players on their team just like inferior players don't get premium pay because their team is "starless"
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Aug 17 at 4:24
#23
Bcarlo25
Joined: May 2018
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Likes: 2,999
Promise?
Aug 17 at 4:26
#24
Thread Starter
The evil stats guy
Joined: Jun 2018
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Likes: 1,659
Quoting: palhal

1)Don't think we can comparable salaries base on contracts that were signed four years ago. It's the last two years of RFA signings that should be comparables. And when all the current RFAs get signed then there will be a good base.

Agree with 10.5 X 7 figure....seems high by liveable. It's about the same Eichel and certainly is premium over the very comparable Aho.
2) Don't think the UFA Tavares has much affect on the RFAs at all. Players don't get "short changed" because of highly paid players on their team just like inferior players don't get premium pay because their team is "starless"


1) This is why I was careful to show the year the deal was signed and mentioned that we should add money to it to account for the new league we are in.
2) I don't think JT affected it much either. I simply said that it annoyed me that he took a discount just for Marner to rob us blind.
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Aug 17 at 4:28
#25
Thread Starter
The evil stats guy
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 3,999
Likes: 1,659
Quoting: Bcarlo25
Promise?


Until he signs yes, I will not be making any AGM's about it.
I think he is worth 6@9 but that he will get something like 7@10.5aav. That is my final position on the matter.
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