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My Final Word on a Marner Contract

Created by: Random2152
Team: 2019-20 Toronto Maple Leafs
Initial Creation Date: Aug. 16, 2019
Published: Aug. 17, 2019
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
For those of you who do not want to read this lengthy post, the tl;dr version is I will live with a 7@10.5aav deal (all in SB's and with a 20+ team NTC/NMC). It is an overpayment by ~1-1.5 million, but considering all young stars are underpaid relative to their production (even McDavid, Matthews, and insert young star here) I will live with it.
Below is a projected Leafs roster with the 'fair' Marner contract.

For those of you who want to see contract comparables and a deeper breakdown; grab the popcorn.

Going based on news (Matthews) and my opinions/100% factual statements (not Matthews) here are a list of contract comparables for Marner (in no particular order). There are other comparable players but I will only be profiling some of the more prominent ones who currently have a contract.
Before you start, remember that the Matthews deal was signed in a new era of contracts for star centres so his % is by far the highest (that and the fact that he isn't a comparable for any of these players except for Kane).

Name - Contract - Starting Year - Cap% of starting year

Matthews- 5@11.634 - 2019-20 - 14.27%
Kane-------- 5@6.300 - 2010-11 - 10.61%
Tarasenko- 8@7.500 - 2015-16 - 10.50%
Aho---------- 5@8.454 - 2019-20 - 10.37%
Nylander-- 6@6.962 - 2018-19 - 8.76%
Pastrnak-- 6@6.666 - 2017-18 - 8.89%
Gaudreau- 6@6.750 - 2016-17 - 9.25%
Meier------- 4@6.000 - 2019-20 - 7.36%

A basic average on the term and the % gives you a contract of 5.625 years at a 10% hit. That gives you roughly a 5@8 - 6@8.5 which is right around the Aho contract and intrinsically is fairly close in terms of Marner's actual value on that term. At this point however, I do not think he will get his intrinsic worth and will be badly overpaid.

Basic counting stats (in per game for context):
Name - Year 1 GPG/PPG - Year 2 GPG/PPG - Year 3 GPG/PPG - etc, until 2nd contract starts

Matthews-- 0.49/0.84 - 0.55/1.02 - 0.54/1.07
Kane--------- 0.26/0.88 - 0.31/0.88 - 0.37/1.07
Tarasenko- 0.21/0.29 - 0.33/0.67 - 0.48/0.95
Aho---------- 0.29/0.60 - 0.37/0.83 - 0.37/1.01
Marner----- 0.25/0.79 - 0.27/0.84 - 0.32/1.15
Nylander--- 0.27/.059 - 0.27-0.75 - 0.24-0.74
Pastrnak--- 0.22/0.59 - 0.29/0.51 - 0.45/0.93
Gaudreau- 1.00/1.00 - 0.30/0.80 - 0.38/0.99
Meier------- 0.09/0.18 - 0.26/0.44

Basic counting stats (in /pg context) essentially show that (Auston Matthews is a ****ing beast) Marner is extremely comparable with players like Aho and Gaudreau, and is a step above Nylander while being multiple steps below Matthews.

Going off of this we can guess at a 'fair' contract as being the average of Gaudreau and Aho's deals. That comes to 5.5@9.81% or 5.5@8. Gaudreau was signed in a past RFA contract scenario, so I think it would be fair to add up to 1 million to this aav in order to account for this (surpassing the Aho deal in he skew). Strictly value wise this is what he is worth and my highest 'fair' valuation on him of 6@9.000 seems mostly in line with this projection. I will be basing any contract signed off of this number, and will be shocked if he comes in anywhere near it from the news I have been hearing.

As CF doesn't have the ability to put images in these descriptions, I will be adding the advanced metrics down below to show how Meier is better than his counting stats show and how Mitch and Aho are very close.

As a conclusion to this; I will say that I will be able to live with a deal that surpasses his intrinsic value as long as it comes with term. I would be okay with up to 7@10.5aav based on his age and the fact that he should continue to get better. I am still irked that JT took a large discount to come here just for Mitch to put the teams financial future in jeopardy by demanding a massive overpayment and am annoyed at Shanahan and Dubas for (reportedly) giving it to him.
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
6$9,000,000
Retained Salary Transactions
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2020
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Logo of the CAR
Logo of the COL
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the SJS
Logo of the STL
Logo of the WPG
2021
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
2022
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ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
22$81,500,000$80,959,699$0$0$540,301
Left WingCentreRight Wing
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$2,250,000$2,250,000
RW, LW
M-NTC
UFA - 2
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$11,000,000$11,000,000
C, LW
NMC
UFA - 6
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$9,000,000$9,000,000
RW
UFA - 6
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$3,400,000$3,400,000
LW, RW
UFA - 4
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$11,634,000$11,634,000
C
UFA - 5
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$925,000$925,000
LW, RW
UFA - 1
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$3,500,000$3,500,000
LW, C, RW
UFA - 4
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$6,962,366$6,962,366
RW
UFA - 5
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$775,000$775,000
LW, RW
UFA - 2
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$700,000$700,000
C, RW
NTC
UFA - 1
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$3,200,000$3,200,000
RW
UFA - 3
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$750,000$750,000
C
UFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
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$4,000,000$4,000,000
LD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$2,750,000$2,750,000
RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$5,000,000$5,000,000
G
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$5,000,000$5,000,000
LD
UFA - 3
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$4,500,000$4,500,000
RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$700,000$700,000
G
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$700,000$700,000
LD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$700,000$700,000
RD
UFA - 1
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
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$775,000$775,000
C, LW, RW
UFA - 2
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$863,333$863,333
LD/RD
UFA - 1
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$5,250,000$5,250,000
RW
M-NTC, NMC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$675,000$675,000
RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$5,300,000$5,300,000
RW
M-NTC, NMC
UFA - 1

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Aug. 17, 2019 at 5:03 p.m.
#51
Marner Enthusiast
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Quoting: Random2152
ummmm... (these aren't advanced stats btw)
ECMkoFIWsAMnWbz?format=jpg&name=small


I am aware of these stats, Tavares played a big part in helping Marner improve his ability to drive possession. However, a lot of goals Tavares scored were tap ins set up by Marner. It was Marner either making the zone entry, creating space by avoiding an opponent’s check and feeding the pass to Tavares in an open area. You can’t convince me that Marner got carried when he’s clearly contributed a lot to their success.
Aug. 17, 2019 at 5:04 p.m.
#52
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The contract will be 55 million for 6 years, that's 9'166'667 AAV, it has all the key numbers, over 9 million (more than Aho and Draisaitl), it includes his jersey # 16, it has the # 666, since the Leafs have to make a deal with the devil, and it includes the number 67, the last time the Leafs won the Cup.
Aug. 17, 2019 at 5:04 p.m.
#53
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Quoting: BrandonDubinskyGOAT
I am aware of these stats, Tavares played a big part in helping Marner improve his ability to drive possession. However, a lot of goals Tavares scored were tap ins set up by Marner. It was Marner either making the zone entry, creating space by avoiding an opponent’s check and feeding the pass to Tavares in an open area. You can’t convince me that Marner got carried when he’s clearly contributed a lot to their success.


Those tap ins were created by JT. Passing is easy; especially for an NHL player.
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Aug. 17, 2019 at 5:04 p.m.
#54
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Quoting: draft_em_sign_em_trade_em
The contract will be 55 million for 6 years, that's 9'166'667 AAV, it has all the key numbers, over 9 million (more than Aho and Draisaitl), it includes his jersey # 16, it has the # 666, since the Leafs have to make a deal with the devil, and it includes the number 67, the last time the Leafs won the Cup.


I know you're trolling but at this point I'd take that
Aug. 17, 2019 at 5:07 p.m.
#55
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Quoting: Random2152
Those tap ins were created by JT. Passing is easy; especially for an NHL player.


Wrong. You actually lose this battle my friend. You won the war with BrandonGOAT but that statement is way off.
Aug. 17, 2019 at 5:07 p.m.
#56
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Quoting: Random2152
Just lol. You have to be a troll. There is no way someone could be this stupid.


Truth hurts
Aug. 17, 2019 at 5:10 p.m.
#57
Your Fav Dman is Bad
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Quoting: Random2152
ummmm... (these aren't advanced stats btw)
ECMkoFIWsAMnWbz?format=jpg&name=small


If you haven't already, use that tool to check out Nylander, Nylander w/o Kadri, and Nylander w/o Kadri and Matthews from last year. Unreal how much better of a season Nylander had over Marner in terms of shot impacts.
Aug. 17, 2019 at 5:12 p.m.
#58
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Quoting: Random2152
I know you're trolling but at this point I'd take that


58 for 6 years is more likely though, 9'666'667
Aug. 17, 2019 at 5:13 p.m.
#59
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Quoting: Random2152
Those tap ins were created by JT, passing is easy; especially for an NHL player.


It seriously disgusts me how you Leaf fans discredit Marner for what he’s accomplished. He gets even less respect than Guentzel, who couldn’t even score at a point per game pace playing with Crosby, a far better center than Tavares. JT scored all those tap ins by himself? That’s one of the stupidest things I’ve ever heard. Sure he contributed in the forechecking sequence and drive for possession which led to the goal, but to say Marner barely played any part in his success is flat out wrong. Marner was constantly the one making the zone entry, then successfully dangling a checking opponent before sending a perfect pass right onto the tape. For you to say that it’s easy, tells me you’ve never played competitively before.
Aug. 17, 2019 at 5:15 p.m.
#60
i hope ur hungry now
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Quoting: BrandonDubinskyGOAT
Me? I played AAA, probably better than what you achieved.


Lol @Bcarlo25 he did it again
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Aug. 17, 2019 at 5:15 p.m.
#61
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Quoting: draft_em_sign_em_trade_em
Wrong. You actually lose this battle my friend. You won the war with BrandonGOAT but that statement is way off.


I over exaggerated in saying that passing is easy, but the hard part is creating the space, getting to the net and knowing how to do all of that quickly. You can have the passer, but if you dont have the JT, nothing happens.
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Aug. 17, 2019 at 5:17 p.m.
#62
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Quoting: rootferdukes
If you haven't already, use that tool to check out Nylander, Nylander w/o Kadri, and Nylander w/o Kadri and Matthews from last year. Unreal how much better of a season Nylander had over Marner in terms of shot impacts.


I don't pay to see past the wall. I probably should tho...
Aug. 17, 2019 at 5:17 p.m.
#63
i hope ur hungry now
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Quoting: draft_em_sign_em_trade_em
I like the last sentence in your write up is a lie, I highly doubt the rumor that J.T. was getting an offer of 13 million. So J.T. didn't take a hometown discount. I've never seen a confirmed report by a reliable source stating that the Sharks offered 13 million.


He was
Aug. 17, 2019 at 5:19 p.m.
#64
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Quoting: SpaghettiPasta
Lol @Bcarlo25 he did it again


Well, I did play AAA, so I don’t see why you have a problem with it.
Aug. 17, 2019 at 5:20 p.m.
#65
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Quoting: BrandonDubinskyGOAT
It seriously disgusts me how you Leaf fans discredit Marner for what he’s accomplished. He gets even less respect than Guentzel, who couldn’t even score at a point per game pace playing with Crosby, a far better center than Tavares. JT scored all those tap ins by himself? That’s one of the stupidest things I’ve ever heard. Sure he contributed in the forechecking sequence and drive for possession which led to the goal, but to say Marner barely played any part in his success is flat out wrong. Marner was constantly the one making the zone entry, then successfully dangling a checking opponent before sending a perfect pass right onto the tape. For you to say that it’s easy, tells me you’ve never played competitively before.


Marner stood at the half wall and made a pass. That is his role. Sure it takes skill to make that pass, but the far more important aspect is making the space, getting the puck into the zone (or to Marner in this case), knowing what to do when you get the puck, creating havoc in order to give Marner more space etc.

The reason why people overvalue Marner's contribution is because his role is very visible on TV to puck watchers who don't watch hockey, but rather watch the puck.
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Aug. 17, 2019 at 5:21 p.m.
#66
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Quoting: BrandonDubinskyGOAT
Well, I did play AAA, so I don’t see why you have a problem with it.


you're using it as an argument. I also played AAA but I only ever mention it in this context. Playing AAA doesn't change the viability of stats lol.
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Aug. 17, 2019 at 5:23 p.m.
#67
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Quoting: Random2152
I don't pay to see past the wall. I probably should tho...


It's well worth it, but Nylander with all teammates was +31% Offense/+6% Defense in 702 mins, and excluding Kadri AND Matthews (two most common teammates) he was still +26% Offense/+5% Defense in 176 mins. Superb on-ice impacts that got totally overshadowed because of his holdout and lack of all-important points.
Aug. 17, 2019 at 5:23 p.m.
#68
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Quoting: Random2152
I over exaggerated in saying that passing is easy, but the hard part is creating the space, getting to the net and knowing how to do all of that quickly. You can have the passer, but if you dont have the JT, nothing happens.


Marner also sets up Hyman for easy tap in goals too. The playmaker's job is to make the players around him better. Fact is J.T. , Hyman, Kadri, JRV are scored career highs in goals when playing with Mitch. You can't denial his talent. Marner's playmaking skills can turn him into the next Joe Thornton, can you honestly say he does't deserve Jumbo Joe's wage ?
Aug. 17, 2019 at 5:24 p.m.
#69
i hope ur hungry now
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Quoting: BrandonDubinskyGOAT
Well, I did play AAA, so I don’t see why you have a problem with it.


You lose a credibility if you say you played OHL and don't even know what Usports is. If you did play AAA, and you want to prove it, what is your elite prospects page. If you played AAA you have one.
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Aug. 17, 2019 at 5:24 p.m.
#70
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Quoting: Random2152
I over exaggerated in saying that passing is easy, but the hard part is creating the space, getting to the net and knowing how to do all of that quickly. You can have the passer, but if you dont have the JT, nothing happens.


You are right that scoring a tap in takes an underrated amount of work for the goal scorer, but if it were Tavares setting up Marner for the tap in, you wouldn’t be saying it like this, I guarantee it.
Aug. 17, 2019 at 5:24 p.m.
#71
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Quoting: SpaghettiPasta
He was


Sharks did better by adding EK65 anyhow.
Aug. 17, 2019 at 5:26 p.m.
#72
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Quoting: draft_em_sign_em_trade_em
Marner also sets up Hyman for easy tap in goals too. The playmaker's job is to make the players around him better. Fact is J.T. , Hyman, Kadri, JRV are scored career highs in goals when playing with Mitch. You can't denial his talent. Marner's playmaking skills can turn him into the next Joe Thornton, can you honestly say he does't deserve Jumbo Joe's wage ?


Are you sure Mitch made Hyman better, or JT? History and numbers et al say it was JT.
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Aug. 17, 2019 at 5:27 p.m.
#73
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Quoting: BrandonDubinskyGOAT
You are right that scoring a tap in takes an underrated amount of work for the goal scorer, but if it were Tavares setting up Marner for the tap in, you wouldn’t be saying it like this, I guarantee it.


I would be. I have no vendetta against Marner lol. I love him to death, I just want him to be paid fairly and for the Leafs to do well.
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Aug. 17, 2019 at 5:31 p.m.
#74
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Quoting: Random2152
Are you sure Mitch made Hyman better, or JT? History and numbers et al say it was JT.


Well than I'm getting Dubas to give me a NHL tryout and get Babcock to put me on J.T.'s line because it's obvious, I can be a 20 goal 70 point NHLer with no skill by playing beside him.
Aug. 17, 2019 at 5:32 p.m.
#75
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Quoting: draft_em_sign_em_trade_em
Marner also sets up Hyman for easy tap in goals too. The playmaker's job is to make the players around him better. Fact is J.T. , Hyman, Kadri, JRV are scored career highs in goals when playing with Mitch. You can't denial his talent. Marner's playmaking skills can turn him into the next Joe Thornton, can you honestly say he does't deserve Jumbo Joe's wage ?


Also, Hyman is sneakily very good. If the guy had hands (they are like ****ing boulders attached to his arms) he would be a very good player. The rest of his game is all there.
D6x950EXkAAl6aG?format=png&name=900x900
 
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