Forums/Armchair-GM

My Final Word on a Marner Contract

Created by: Random2152
Initial Creation Date: Aug 16, 2019
Published: Aug 17, 2019 at 3:46 pm
Team: 2019-20 Toronto Maple Leafs
Team Explanation
For those of you who do not want to read this lengthy post, the tl;dr version is I will live with a 7@10.5aav deal (all in SB's and with a 20+ team NTC/NMC). It is an overpayment by ~1-1.5 million, but considering all young stars are underpaid relative to their production (even McDavid, Matthews, and insert young star here) I will live with it.
Below is a projected Leafs roster with the 'fair' Marner contract.

For those of you who want to see contract comparables and a deeper breakdown; grab the popcorn.

Going based on news (Matthews) and my opinions/100% factual statements (not Matthews) here are a list of contract comparables for Marner (in no particular order). There are other comparable players but I will only be profiling some of the more prominent ones who currently have a contract.
Before you start, remember that the Matthews deal was signed in a new era of contracts for star centres so his % is by far the highest (that and the fact that he isn't a comparable for any of these players except for Kane).

Name - Contract - Starting Year - Cap% of starting year

Matthews- 5@11.634 - 2019-20 - 14.27%
Kane-------- 5@6.300 - 2010-11 - 10.61%
Tarasenko- 8@7.500 - 2015-16 - 10.50%
Aho---------- 5@8.454 - 2019-20 - 10.37%
Nylander-- 6@6.962 - 2018-19 - 8.76%
Pastrnak-- 6@6.666 - 2017-18 - 8.89%
Gaudreau- 6@6.750 - 2016-17 - 9.25%
Meier------- 4@6.000 - 2019-20 - 7.36%

A basic average on the term and the % gives you a contract of 5.625 years at a 10% hit. That gives you roughly a 5@8 - 6@8.5 which is right around the Aho contract and intrinsically is fairly close in terms of Marner's actual value on that term. At this point however, I do not think he will get his intrinsic worth and will be badly overpaid.

Basic counting stats (in per game for context):
Name - Year 1 GPG/PPG - Year 2 GPG/PPG - Year 3 GPG/PPG - etc, until 2nd contract starts

Matthews-- 0.49/0.84 - 0.55/1.02 - 0.54/1.07
Kane--------- 0.26/0.88 - 0.31/0.88 - 0.37/1.07
Tarasenko- 0.21/0.29 - 0.33/0.67 - 0.48/0.95
Aho---------- 0.29/0.60 - 0.37/0.83 - 0.37/1.01
Marner----- 0.25/0.79 - 0.27/0.84 - 0.32/1.15
Nylander--- 0.27/.059 - 0.27-0.75 - 0.24-0.74
Pastrnak--- 0.22/0.59 - 0.29/0.51 - 0.45/0.93
Gaudreau- 1.00/1.00 - 0.30/0.80 - 0.38/0.99
Meier------- 0.09/0.18 - 0.26/0.44

Basic counting stats (in /pg context) essentially show that (Auston Matthews is a ****ing beast) Marner is extremely comparable with players like Aho and Gaudreau, and is a step above Nylander while being multiple steps below Matthews.

Going off of this we can guess at a 'fair' contract as being the average of Gaudreau and Aho's deals. That comes to 5.5@9.81% or 5.5@8. Gaudreau was signed in a past RFA contract scenario, so I think it would be fair to add up to 1 million to this aav in order to account for this (surpassing the Aho deal in he skew). Strictly value wise this is what he is worth and my highest 'fair' valuation on him of 6@9.000 seems mostly in line with this projection. I will be basing any contract signed off of this number, and will be shocked if he comes in anywhere near it from the news I have been hearing.

As CF doesn't have the ability to put images in these descriptions, I will be adding the advanced metrics down below to show how Meier is better than his counting stats show and how Mitch and Aho are very close.

As a conclusion to this; I will say that I will be able to live with a deal that surpasses his intrinsic value as long as it comes with term. I would be okay with up to 7@10.5aav based on his age and the fact that he should continue to get better. I am still irked that JT took a large discount to come here just for Mitch to put the teams financial future in jeopardy by demanding a massive overpayment and am annoyed at Shanahan and Dubas for (reportedly) giving it to him.
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
Marner, Mitchell6$9,000,000
Buyouts
  • Mikhail Grabovski: $0
Retained Salary Transactions
  • Phil Kessel: $1,200,000 (15%)
  • Robin Lehner: $1,100,000 (22%)
DRAFT YEARROUND 1ROUND 2ROUND 3ROUND 4ROUND 5ROUND 6ROUND 7
2020
TOR
CBJ
TOR
VGK
TOR
CAR
COL
EDM
SJS
STL
WPG
2021
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
2022
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES BONUSESCAP SPACE
22$81,500,000$82,059,699$0$0-$559,699
Left WingCenterRight Wing
TOR
Hyman, Zach
$2,250,000
LW
NTC
UFA - 2
TOR
Tavares, John
$11,000,000
C
NMC
UFA - 6
TOR
Marner, Mitchell
$9,000,000
RW
UFA - 6
TOR
Johnsson, Andreas
$3,400,000
LW
UFA - 4
TOR
Matthews, Auston
$11,634,000
C
UFA - 5
TOR
Nylander, William
$6,962,366
RW, LW
UFA - 5
TOR
Mikheyev, Ilya
$925,000
LW, RW
RFA - 1
TOR
Kerfoot, Alexander
$3,500,000
C, LW
UFA - 4
TOR
Kapanen, Kasperi
$3,200,000
RW
RFA - 3
TOR
Moore, Trevor
$775,000
RW, LW
RFA - 2
TOR
Spezza, Jason
$700,000
C, RW
NTC
UFA - 1
TOR
Shore, Nick
$750,000
C
UFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
TOR
Muzzin, Jake
$4,000,000
LD
UFA - 1
TOR
Barrie, Tyson
$2,750,000
RD
UFA - 1
TOR
Andersen, Frederik
$5,000,000
G
NTC
UFA - 2
TOR
Rielly, Morgan
$5,000,000
LD
UFA - 3
TOR
Ceci, Cody
$4,500,000
RD
UFA - 1
TOR
Hutchinson, Michael
$700,000
G
UFA - 1
TOR
Marincin, Martin
$700,000
LD
UFA - 1
TOR
Schmaltz, Jordan
$700,000
RD
UFA - 1
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
TOR
Petan, Nicolas
$775,000
LW, RW, C
RFA - 2
TOR
Dermott, Travis
$863,333
LD
RFA - 1
TOR
Clarkson, David
$5,250,000
RW
NMC NTC
UFA - 1
TOR
Holl, Justin
$675,000
RD
UFA - 1
TOR
Horton, Nathan
$5,300,000
RW
NMC NTC
UFA - 1

Embed Code

  • To display this team on another website or blog, add this iFrame to the appropriate page
  • Customize the height attribute in the iFrame code below to fit your website appropriately. Minimum recommended: 400px.

Text-Embed

Click to Highlight
Aug 17, 2019 at 5:33
#76
Thread Starter
The Enlightened One
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 5,568
Likes: 2,538
Quoting: draft_em_sign_em_trade_em
Well than I'm getting Dubas to give me a NHL tryout and get Babcock to put me on J.T.'s line because it's obvious, I can be a 20 goal 70 point NHLer with no skill by playing beside him.


Have you seen what happened to his wingers after they left JT? I could get 20-30 points on JT's line not that I would be contributing anything. smile
SpaghettiPasta and oneX liked this.
Aug 17, 2019 at 5:33
#77
i hope ur hungry now
Joined: Oct 2017
Posts: 2,220
Likes: 874
Quoting: BrandonDubinskyGOAT
It seriously disgusts me how you Leaf fans discredit Marner for what he’s accomplished. He gets even less respect than Guentzel, who couldn’t even score at a point per game pace playing with Crosby, a far better center than Tavares. JT scored all those tap ins by himself? That’s one of the stupidest things I’ve ever heard. Sure he contributed in the forechecking sequence and drive for possession which led to the goal, but to say Marner barely played any part in his success is flat out wrong. Marner was constantly the one making the zone entry, then successfully dangling a checking opponent before sending a perfect pass right onto the tape. For you to say that it’s easy, tells me you’ve never played competitively before.


Marner is an insanely good hockey player that doesn't lie about his acoplishments on capfriendly. We all know that. We also know Taveres has historicly made his linemates better. He is better than Matthews ATM. Matthews will be better in a year. Marner should get AT MOST 10 million
Aug 17, 2019 at 5:35
#78
i hope ur hungry now
Joined: Oct 2017
Posts: 2,220
Likes: 874
Quoting: draft_em_sign_em_trade_em
Sharks did better by adding EK65 anyhow.


But they had to give up pieces to get him. And he is making 11.5 million
Aug 17, 2019 at 5:35
#79
Thread Starter
The Enlightened One
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 5,568
Likes: 2,538
Quoting: SpaghettiPasta
Marner is an insanely good hockey player that doesn't lie about his acoplishments on capfriendly. We all know that. We also know Taveres has historicly made his linemates better. He is better than Matthews ATM. Matthews will be better in a year. Marner should get AT MOST 10 million


I like how he is saying we discredit him when a large portion of the NHL fans thinks Mitch is better than Matthews, or at least comparable. We are discrediting the bat**** insane crap, not Marner. Marner should get 6@9 (Which is stupid rich for an RFA).
SpaghettiPasta and oneX liked this.
Aug 17, 2019 at 5:37
#80
Joined: Nov 2018
Posts: 3,403
Likes: 725
Quoting: Random2152
Also, Hyman is sneakily very good. If the guy had hands (they are like ****ing boulders attached to his arms) he would be a very good player. The rest of his game is all there.
D6x950EXkAAl6aG?format=png&name=900x900


I have a feeling Hyman doesn't get top 6 forward spot this year, being injured and with Johnsson looking good with either J.T. or Matthews and early reports stating Mikheyev gets a long look as Matthews lw'er, heck even the signing of Pontus can push Hyman down to the bottom 6.
Aug 17, 2019 at 5:38
#81
i hope ur hungry now
Joined: Oct 2017
Posts: 2,220
Likes: 874
Quoting: Random2152
Have you seen what happened to his wingers after they left JT? I could get 20-30 points on JT's line not that I would be contributing anything. smile


If you can skate at 20 mph and have good hockey sense, you can get 10 points on Taveres's wing from the puck bouncing off of you ?
Random2152 and oneX liked this.
Aug 17, 2019 at 5:39
#82
Thread Starter
The Enlightened One
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 5,568
Likes: 2,538
Quoting: draft_em_sign_em_trade_em
I have a feeling Hyman doesn't get top 6 forward spot this year, being injured and with Johnsson looking good with either J.T. or Matthews and early reports stating Mikheyev gets a long look as Matthews lw'er, heck even the signing of Pontus can push Hyman down to the bottom 6.


Johnsson's spot will be determined by Mik's play, not Hyman. Babs likes a grinder on his lines.
Hyman-JT-Marner
Mik-Matthews-Nylander
Johnsson-Kerfoot-Kapanen
Moore-Spezza-Shore
Aug 17, 2019 at 5:43
#83
Joined: Nov 2018
Posts: 3,403
Likes: 725
Quoting: Random2152
Johnsson's spot will be determined by Mik's play, not Hyman. Babs likes a grinder on his lines.
Hyman-JT-Marner
Mik-Matthews-Nylander
Johnsson-Kerfoot-Kapanen
Moore-Spezza-Shore


Why don't you like Pontus or Timashov on your team? Timashov is a pest/grinder. The fact Petan can be NHL scares me, he stinks. Shore always smells like AHL too.
Aug 17, 2019 at 5:45
#84
BrandonDubinskyGoat
Joined: Apr 2019
Posts: 2,164
Likes: 453
Quoting: Random2152
I would be. I have no vendetta against Marner lol. I love him to death, I just want him to be paid fairly and for the Leafs to do well.


It’s not about the contract though, the 9 million dollar value you set Marner at was more than fair. The issue is, Leaf fans are always downplaying what Marner does for the team and disregard it as if it’s something easy.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=rnH8H1HurSI&t=309s

Re-watch Marner’s plays from 2018/19. Look at the goals he set up JT on, especially the one against WPG, CBJ, CAR and FLA. It’s not only the pass he makes. Look at the way he draws defenders by protecting the puck and managing to avoid all them. That is what creates space for the open player to score the tap in. If Mitch doesn’t do those things the goal doesn’t happen.
Aug 17, 2019 at 5:45
#85
i hope ur hungry now
Joined: Oct 2017
Posts: 2,220
Likes: 874
Quoting: draft_em_sign_em_trade_em
I have a feeling Hyman doesn't get top 6 forward spot this year, being injured and with Johnsson looking good with either J.T. or Matthews and early reports stating Mikheyev gets a long look as Matthews lw'er, heck even the signing of Pontus can push Hyman down to the bottom 6.


I think the leafs top 9 is the best in the league.
Aug 17, 2019 at 5:46
#86
BrandonDubinskyGoat
Joined: Apr 2019
Posts: 2,164
Likes: 453
Quoting: SpaghettiPasta
Marner is an insanely good hockey player that doesn't lie about his acoplishments on capfriendly. We all know that. We also know Taveres has historicly made his linemates better. He is better than Matthews ATM. Matthews will be better in a year. Marner should get AT MOST 10 million


I agree that Tavares is one of the best centers in the league, but the issue is, Leaf fans value him to be as good as Crosby, just so they can disregard the things Marner does.
Aug 17, 2019 at 5:46
#87
Thread Starter
The Enlightened One
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 5,568
Likes: 2,538
Quoting: draft_em_sign_em_trade_em
Why don't you like Pontus or Timashov on your team? Timashov is a pest/grinder. The fact Petan can be NHL scares me, he stinks. Shore always smells like AHL too.


Shore could be replaced I just used him for the example. Moore and Spezza are locks (more is the guy who will break out a la kapanen and Johnsson this year).
Aug 17, 2019 at 5:47
#88
i hope ur hungry now
Joined: Oct 2017
Posts: 2,220
Likes: 874
Quoting: BrandonDubinskyGOAT
It’s not about the contract though, the 9 million dollar value you set Marner at was more than fair. The issue is, Leaf fans are always downplaying what Marner does for the team and disregard it as if it’s something easy.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=rnH8H1HurSI&t=309s

Re-watch Marner’s plays from 2018/19. Look at the goals he set up JT on, especially the one against WPG, CBJ, CAR and FLA. It’s not only the pass he makes. Look at the way he draws defenders by protecting the puck and managing to avoid all them. That is what creates space for the open player to score the tap in. If Mitch doesn’t do those things the goal doesn’t happen.


Anyone looks like a 10 million dollar player showing their best plays and putting music over it.
For example
https://youtu.be/XuBkLMyNa3M
Random2152, rootferdukes and oneX liked this.
Aug 17, 2019 at 5:49
#89
Joined: May 2018
Posts: 2,132
Likes: 1,540
Quoting: Weezley
Lol. Why is everyone touting their junior days as a credential?


Lol. This * 1000. I played beer league with some ex nhlers. And had a pint with Joe Thorton one day..

And I still don't know sh*t..
Random2152, rootferdukes, Trickster and 1 other person liked this.
Aug 17, 2019 at 5:49
#90
Thread Starter
The Enlightened One
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 5,568
Likes: 2,538
Quoting: BrandonDubinskyGOAT
It’s not about the contract though, the 9 million dollar value you set Marner at was more than fair. The issue is, Leaf fans are always downplaying what Marner does for the team and disregard it as if it’s something easy.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=rnH8H1HurSI&t=309s

Re-watch Marner’s plays from 2018/19. Look at the goals he set up JT on, especially the one against WPG, CBJ, CAR and FLA. It’s not only the pass he makes. Look at the way he draws defenders by protecting the puck and managing to avoid all them. That is what creates space for the open player to score the tap in. If Mitch doesn’t do those things the goal doesn’t happen.


The argument on him driving his line compares him to JT. It seems like we are downplaying Marner because of how good JT is. For example, 50000000 is a big number, but it seems tiny compared to 483726266484959383726252.

Marner is very good and that isn't the issue, the issue is that people think he is the 48372... Rather than. The 5000...
Aug 17, 2019 at 5:49
#91
BrandonDubinskyGoat
Joined: Apr 2019
Posts: 2,164
Likes: 453
Quoting: SpaghettiPasta
Anyone looks like a 10 million dollar player showing their best plays and putting music over it.
For example
https://youtu.be/XuBkLMyNa3M


Come on, you can’t be serious. To start off, not everyone has the hands and puck skills of Marner.
Aug 17, 2019 at 5:50
#92
i hope ur hungry now
Joined: Oct 2017
Posts: 2,220
Likes: 874
Quoting: BrandonDubinskyGOAT
I agree that Tavares is one of the best centers in the league, but the issue is, Leaf fans value him to be as good as Crosby, just so they can disregard the things Marner does.


No one thinks he is as good as Crosby.
No one has said he is as good as Crosby
Somebody... I don't remember who... said Toews is better than Crosby. And annoyed the entire website by tagging everyone. ?????
Random2152, rootferdukes, Trickster and 1 other person liked this.
Aug 17, 2019 at 5:50
#93
Thread Starter
The Enlightened One
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 5,568
Likes: 2,538
Quoting: BrandonDubinskyGOAT
I agree that Tavares is one of the best centers in the league, but the issue is, Leaf fans value him to be as good as Crosby, just so they can disregard the things Marner does.


I found the problem. You undervalue jt. He isn't Crosby, but he is spectacular in every way. Look at the wingers he made into good players (and what happened after).
oneX liked this.
Aug 17, 2019 at 5:51
#94
i hope ur hungry now
Joined: Oct 2017
Posts: 2,220
Likes: 874
Quoting: BrandonDubinskyGOAT
Come on, you can’t be serious. To start off, not everyone has the hands and puck skills of Marner.


But people making 9.5 million do.
Aug 17, 2019 at 5:52
#95
BrandonDubinskyGoat
Joined: Apr 2019
Posts: 2,164
Likes: 453
Quoting: SpaghettiPasta
But people making 9.5 million do.


I know, but that’s not what you were saying. You said even a fringe player could do what Marner has done.
Aug 17, 2019 at 5:53
#96
Thread Starter
The Enlightened One
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 5,568
Likes: 2,538
Quoting: BrandonDubinskyGOAT
I know, but that’s not what you were saying. You said even a fringe player could do what Marner has done.


No he didnt
Trickster, SpaghettiPasta and oneX liked this.
Aug 17, 2019 at 5:53
#97
BrandonDubinskyGoat
Joined: Apr 2019
Posts: 2,164
Likes: 453
Quoting: Random2152
I found the problem. You undervalue jt. He isn't Crosby, but he is spectacular in every way. Look at the wingers he made into good players (and what happened after).


Look at the wingers Crosby made into good players. No debate whatsoever.
Aug 17, 2019 at 5:53
#98
i hope ur hungry now
Joined: Oct 2017
Posts: 2,220
Likes: 874
Quoting: BrandonDubinskyGOAT
Come on, you can’t be serious. To start off, not everyone has the hands and puck skills of Marner.


Here's an all star MVP playing. Tell me Marner is better than him
https://youtu.be/qfXDoVMXDfg
Aug 17, 2019 at 5:54
#99
i hope ur hungry now
Joined: Oct 2017
Posts: 2,220
Likes: 874
Quoting: BrandonDubinskyGOAT
I know, but that’s not what you were saying. You said even a fringe player could do what Marner has done.


No I didn't
Aug 17, 2019 at 5:54
#100
Thread Starter
The Enlightened One
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 5,568
Likes: 2,538
Quoting: BrandonDubinskyGOAT
Look at the wingers Crosby made into good players. No debate whatsoever.


IM NOT SAYING HE IS CROSBY FOR ****S SAKE
SpaghettiPasta, Trickster and oneX liked this.
 
Reply
To create a post please Login or Register
Question:
Options:
Add Option
Remove Option
Submit Poll