My Final Word on a Marner Contract

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Created by: Random2152

Team: 2019-20 Toronto Maple Leafs

Initial Creation Date: Aug. 16, 2019

Published: Aug. 17, 2019

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

For those of you who do not want to read this lengthy post, the tl;dr version is I will live with a 7@10.5aav deal (all in SB's and with a 20+ team NTC/NMC). It is an overpayment by ~1-1.5 million, but considering all young stars are underpaid relative to their production (even McDavid, Matthews, and insert young star here) I will live with it.
Below is a projected Leafs roster with the 'fair' Marner contract.

For those of you who want to see contract comparables and a deeper breakdown; grab the popcorn.

Going based on news (Matthews) and my opinions/100% factual statements (not Matthews) here are a list of contract comparables for Marner (in no particular order). There are other comparable players but I will only be profiling some of the more prominent ones who currently have a contract.
Before you start, remember that the Matthews deal was signed in a new era of contracts for star centres so his % is by far the highest (that and the fact that he isn't a comparable for any of these players except for Kane).

Name - Contract - Starting Year - Cap% of starting year

Matthews- 5@11.634 - 2019-20 - 14.27%
Kane-------- 5@6.300 - 2010-11 - 10.61%
Tarasenko- 8@7.500 - 2015-16 - 10.50%
Aho---------- 5@8.454 - 2019-20 - 10.37%
Nylander-- 6@6.962 - 2018-19 - 8.76%
Pastrnak-- 6@6.666 - 2017-18 - 8.89%
Gaudreau- 6@6.750 - 2016-17 - 9.25%
Meier------- 4@6.000 - 2019-20 - 7.36%

A basic average on the term and the % gives you a contract of 5.625 years at a 10% hit. That gives you roughly a 5@8 - 6@8.5 which is right around the Aho contract and intrinsically is fairly close in terms of Marner's actual value on that term. At this point however, I do not think he will get his intrinsic worth and will be badly overpaid.

Basic counting stats (in per game for context):
Name - Year 1 GPG/PPG - Year 2 GPG/PPG - Year 3 GPG/PPG - etc, until 2nd contract starts

Matthews-- 0.49/0.84 - 0.55/1.02 - 0.54/1.07
Kane--------- 0.26/0.88 - 0.31/0.88 - 0.37/1.07
Tarasenko- 0.21/0.29 - 0.33/0.67 - 0.48/0.95
Aho---------- 0.29/0.60 - 0.37/0.83 - 0.37/1.01
Marner----- 0.25/0.79 - 0.27/0.84 - 0.32/1.15
Nylander--- 0.27/.059 - 0.27-0.75 - 0.24-0.74
Pastrnak--- 0.22/0.59 - 0.29/0.51 - 0.45/0.93
Gaudreau- 1.00/1.00 - 0.30/0.80 - 0.38/0.99
Meier------- 0.09/0.18 - 0.26/0.44

Basic counting stats (in /pg context) essentially show that (Auston Matthews is a ****ing beast) Marner is extremely comparable with players like Aho and Gaudreau, and is a step above Nylander while being multiple steps below Matthews.

Going off of this we can guess at a 'fair' contract as being the average of Gaudreau and Aho's deals. That comes to 5.5@9.81% or 5.5@8. Gaudreau was signed in a past RFA contract scenario, so I think it would be fair to add up to 1 million to this aav in order to account for this (surpassing the Aho deal in he skew). Strictly value wise this is what he is worth and my highest 'fair' valuation on him of 6@9.000 seems mostly in line with this projection. I will be basing any contract signed off of this number, and will be shocked if he comes in anywhere near it from the news I have been hearing.

As CF doesn't have the ability to put images in these descriptions, I will be adding the advanced metrics down below to show how Meier is better than his counting stats show and how Mitch and Aho are very close.

As a conclusion to this; I will say that I will be able to live with a deal that surpasses his intrinsic value as long as it comes with term. I would be okay with up to 7@10.5aav based on his age and the fact that he should continue to get better. I am still irked that JT took a large discount to come here just for Mitch to put the teams financial future in jeopardy by demanding a massive overpayment and am annoyed at Shanahan and Dubas for (reportedly) giving it to him.

Free Agent Signings

RFA		YEARS	CAP HIT
Marner, Mitchell		6	$9,000,000

Buyouts

Mikhail Grabovski: $0

Retained Salary Transactions

Phil Kessel: $1,200,000 (15%)

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2020
2021
2022

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
22	$81,500,000	$80,959,699	$0	$0	$540,301

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Hyman, Zach $2,250,000$2,250,000 RW, LW M-NTC UFA - 2	Tavares, John $11,000,000$11,000,000 C, LW NMC UFA - 6	Marner, Mitchell $9,000,000$9,000,000 RW UFA - 6
Johnsson, Andreas $3,400,000$3,400,000 LW, RW UFA - 4	Matthews, Auston $11,634,000$11,634,000 C UFA - 5
Mikheyev, Ilya $925,000$925,000 LW, RW UFA - 1	Kerfoot, Alexander $3,500,000$3,500,000 LW, C, RW UFA - 4	Nylander, William $6,962,366$6,962,366 RW UFA - 5
Moore, Trevor $775,000$775,000 LW, RW UFA - 2	Spezza, Jason $700,000$700,000 C, RW NTC UFA - 1	Kapanen, Kasperi $3,200,000$3,200,000 RW UFA - 3
		Shore, Nick $750,000$750,000 C UFA - 1

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Muzzin, Jake $4,000,000$4,000,000 LD UFA - 1	Barrie, Tyson $2,750,000$2,750,000 RD UFA - 1	Andersen, Frederik $5,000,000$5,000,000 G M-NTC UFA - 2
Rielly, Morgan $5,000,000$5,000,000 LD UFA - 3	Ceci, Cody $4,500,000$4,500,000 RD UFA - 1	Hutchinson, Michael $700,000$700,000 G UFA - 1
Marincin, Martin $700,000$700,000 LD UFA - 1	Schmaltz, Jordan $700,000$700,000 RD UFA - 1

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
Petan, Nicolas $775,000$775,000 C, LW, RW UFA - 2	Dermott, Travis $863,333$863,333 LD/RD UFA - 1	Clarkson, David $5,250,000$5,250,000 RW M-NTC, NMC UFA - 1
Holl, Justin $675,000$675,000 RD UFA - 1		Horton, Nathan $5,300,000$5,300,000 RW M-NTC, NMC UFA - 1

Aug. 17, 2019 at 6:27 p.m.

#126

Random2152

Thread Starter

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Quoting: BrandonDubinskyGOAT

Do you know who Evgeni Malkin had when he won the scoring title, MVP and most outstanding player award? Freaking James Neal! Not saying he is a bad player, but he’s not Leon Draisaitl or even Mitch Marner. Surely you can agree on this.

Look at who JT's wingers were in the past (and even D core). Marner is the best winger he has ever had. Peak neal + Letang is FAR more than JT ever got.

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Aug. 17, 2019 at 6:28 p.m.

#127

Agent_Of_R9

Marner Enthusiast

Joined: Apr. 2019

Posts: 4,396

Likes: 996

Quoting: Random2152

I mean aside from the fact that JT has increased his wingers ability more than Malkin?
Tell me, what years do you consider "peak Malkin"?
I have something for you going back to 07-08 (although JT wasnt there yet.)

JT hasn’t increased his linemates’ abilities more than Geno. Geno made Max Talbot look like a top 6 winger on a cup contender as well as Ruslan Fedotenko. He made James Neal a 40 goal scorer in the lowest scoring era of hockey. Peak Malkin from 2009-2012 was very close to Crosby and Ovechkin’s level.

Aug. 17, 2019 at 6:29 p.m.

#128

Agent_Of_R9

Marner Enthusiast

Joined: Apr. 2019

Posts: 4,396

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Quoting: SpaghettiPasta

OKAY. Tell me what you think Marner is worth. Not what he will make. What he is worth.

What Marner a worth? 9 million if the term is 5 years.

Aug. 17, 2019 at 6:30 p.m.

#129

SpaghettiPasta

i hope ur hungry now

Joined: Oct. 2017

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Quoting: BrandonDubinskyGOAT

What Marner a worth? 9 million if the term is 5 years.

I agree

Aug. 17, 2019 at 6:31 p.m.

#130

Agent_Of_R9

Marner Enthusiast

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Quoting: Random2152

Look at who JT's wingers were in the past (and even D core). Marner is the best winger he has ever had. Peak neal + Letang is FAR more than JT ever got.

I consider last season JT’s peak. Marner is already better than peak Neal, I don’t know why you think otherwise. Rielly is just as good as peak Letang, if not better.

Aug. 17, 2019 at 6:32 p.m.

#131

oneX

Joined: Mar. 2019

Posts: 2,766

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Quoting: Random2152

Have you seen what happened to his wingers after they left JT? I could get 20-30 points on JT's line not that I would be contributing anything.

Just to help you out (because you seem like a decent guy ?) Tavares linemates early in his career were: Matt Moulson (not even an NHL'er now), Kyle Okposo, P. A. Parenteau and Josh Bailey. Those are just a few names that hardly scream talented.

source

Safe to say you, a few others and I have wasted enough time entertaining trolls.

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Aug. 17, 2019 at 6:33 p.m.

#132

Random2152

Thread Starter

Just Keep Swimming

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Quoting: BrandonDubinskyGOAT

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Aug. 17, 2019 at 6:35 p.m.

#133

Random2152

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Quoting: BrandonDubinskyGOAT

Peak Malkin from 2009-2012 was very close to Crosby and Ovechkin’s level.

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Aug. 17, 2019 at 6:37 p.m.

#134

Random2152

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Quoting: BrandonDubinskyGOAT

Here is Sid LAST YEAR. Don't even compare the two. You are making a fool of yourself.
ECNLLY0WkAghdbP?format=png&name=small

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Aug. 17, 2019 at 6:39 p.m.

#135

Random2152

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Just Keep Swimming

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Quoting: BrandonDubinskyGOAT

I consider last season JT’s peak. Marner is already better than peak Neal, I don’t know why you think otherwise. Rielly is just as good as peak Letang, if not better.

You were asking why JT has never won anything. The answer was his **** linemates. If Ovi didn't have a run for the ages last year JT was in the Rocket convo.

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Aug. 17, 2019 at 6:43 p.m.

#136

Random2152

Thread Starter

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Quoting: BrandonDubinskyGOAT

I just want to hammer this one home one last time.
ECNMqPwX4AE_e3f?format=png&name=small

And this is for you calling me delusional over having Coots>Geno
ECNM9_uW4AQTxAY?format=png&name=small

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Aug. 17, 2019 at 7:23 p.m.

#137

Agent_Of_R9

Marner Enthusiast

Joined: Apr. 2019

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Quoting: Random2152

Here is Sid LAST YEAR. Don't even compare the two. You are making a fool of yourself.
ECNLLY0WkAghdbP?format=png&name=small

Quoting: Random2152

You were asking why JT has never won anything. The answer was his **** linemates. If Ovi didn't have a run for the ages last year JT was in the Rocket convo.

Quoting: Random2152

I just want to hammer this one home one last time.
ECNMqPwX4AE_e3f?format=png&name=small

And this is for you calling me delusional over having Coots>Geno
ECNM9_uW4AQTxAY?format=png&name=small

You are beyond delusional for thinking that Couturier has had the better career over Malkin. I’m sure one season tells a good sample size, especially since Malkin had a down year and was past his prime. And keep using advanced stats, since you actually think they mean something. If advanced stats were everything, there would be many players who would be ranked to have had a better career than Malkin. But since that’s all you use, that’s why you believe Malkin is not even a top 15 player of the Crosby-Ovechkin era, when he’s clearly top 3.

Even though it is true that Tavares has had relatively poor linemates throughout his career, last season was his best, and he got paired with Marner, an undeniable elite talent as well as Rielly, a top 5 Norris trophy defenseman. Malkin in 2011-12 played on a line with Neal, someone who clearly isn’t as good as Marner, plus had no puck moving defenseman that season because Letang suffered a concussion. Advanced statistics aside, it’s almost laughable to think peak Tavares is better than peak Malkin, considering JT only got 88 points playing on a very talented offensive team in an era where scoring is through the roof, whereas Malkin got 110 points (a whopping 22 more) with only one relative talented linemate thus playing in the lowest scoring era of hockey. That alone is enough to prove why Malkin is clearly the better player.

Malkin has won 2 Art Ross trophies, a Hart, a Lindsey, a Calder and he boasts a career points per game average of 1.18. In his generation only Ovechkin and Crosby are more decorated than he is, the next closest player is Patrick Kane. But sure, he is not a top player, since advanced statistics tell everything. You are clueless.

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Aug. 17, 2019 at 7:25 p.m.

#138

Agent_Of_R9

Marner Enthusiast

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Quoting: Random2152

That is actually fairly accurate. Not to the same degree but in general yes; that is what is happening.

Fair enough. Well let me put it this way. If Guentzel played on Tavares wing and Marner played on Crosby’s wing, I predict that Guentzel would get around 60-70 points whereas Marner would get 110.

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Aug. 17, 2019 at 7:26 p.m.

#139

Agent_Of_R9

Marner Enthusiast

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Quoting: Random2152

@Capitalfail67 @BuFfaLOFaN @rangersandislesfan

I have a question for you guys. Who is the better player at their best, Evgeni Malkin or John Tavares?

Aug. 17, 2019 at 7:26 p.m.

#140

Random2152

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Quoting: BrandonDubinskyGOAT

You are beyond delusional for thinking that Couturier has had the better career over Malkin.

I NEVER SAID HE HAD A BETTER CAREER. I SAID HE IS BETTER RIGHT NOW. HOLY ****!
Im not even reading the rest, it isnt worth it. Have a good evening.

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Aug. 17, 2019 at 7:29 p.m.

#141

Agent_Of_R9

Marner Enthusiast

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Quoting: Random2152

I NEVER SAID HE HAD A BETTER CAREER. I SAID HE IS BETTER RIGHT NOW. HOLY ****!
Im not even reading the rest, it isnt worth it. Have a good evening.

The advanced statistics show that Couturier has been the player throughout the course of his career compared to Malkin. I just think you are all out of arguments, so have a good night.

Aug. 18, 2019 at 1:06 a.m.

#142

draft_em_sign_em_trade_em

Joined: Nov. 2018

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Random this thread must be a record holder, let's make it past the 200 posts mark.

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Aug. 18, 2019 at 1:10 a.m.

#143

draft_em_sign_em_trade_em

Joined: Nov. 2018

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Quoting: Random2152

You were asking why JT has never won anything. The answer was his **** linemates. If Ovi didn't have a run for the ages last year JT was in the Rocket convo.

Thank you Marner for placing J.T.'s name in the Rocket contention. But NO Marner is garbage. huh?

Aug. 18, 2019 at 2:39 a.m.

#144

Laudan

Joined: Jul. 2018

Posts: 3,490

Likes: 1,559

Edited Aug. 18, 2019 at 8:41 a.m.

Quoting: Random2152

Before you start, remember that the Matthews deal was signed in a new era of contracts for star centres so his % is by far the highest

Matthews- 5@11.634 - 2019-20 - 14.27%

Seems like i overslept that one.....when was the "New Era" announced ? Which other Cs were part of it ? And GMs ?

Quoting: Random2152

I am still irked that JT took a large discount to come here just for Mitch to put the teams financial future in jeopardy by demanding a massive overpayment and am annoyed at Shanahan and Dubas for (reportedly) giving it to him.

And here the "New Era" obviously ends....cause Marner is greedy destroying the Franchise future but Matthews is Teams darling who helped by agreeing to lower Term......priceless

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Aug. 18, 2019 at 9:44 a.m.

#145

Random2152

Thread Starter

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Quoting: Laudan

Seems like i overslept that one.....when was the "New Era" announced ? Which other Cs were part of it ? And GMs ?

And here the "New Era" obviously ends....cause Marner is greedy destroying the Franchise future but Matthews is Teams darling who helped by agreeing to lower Term......priceless

He is asking for an overpay even by the new era standards.
And by new era, I mean no longer underpaying the young stars. Don't be stupid.

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Aug. 18, 2019 at 9:45 a.m.

#146

Random2152

Thread Starter

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Quoting: draft_em_sign_em_trade_em

Thank you Marner for placing J.T.'s name in the Rocket contention. But NO Marner is garbage. huh?

Lol. Marner just allowed JT to shift roles. I also never said he was garbage. He was good enough to allow JT to switch roles. I said he should get the richest winger rfa contract in history as a result of that. Don't strawman my argument.

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Aug. 19, 2019 at 1:48 a.m.

#147

Laudan

Joined: Jul. 2018

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Edited Aug. 19, 2019 at 7:14 a.m.

Quoting: Random2152

He is asking for an overpay even by the new era standards.
And by new era, I mean no longer underpaying the young stars. Don't be stupid.

I wouldnt go with name calling here. You are the one ( and few others with blue blinders on ) thats talking about "New Era" where only one player got double the money that his points would actually earn him ( ofc i'm talking 8x13M contract as a starting point here but i can also take my time and go into Cap %)

Isnt Aho also Center ? Are you saying CAR were on the way to give him 8 x 11M ( if we translate 5y deal into a 8y one ) cause of the "New Era"? i can go for other RFA Cs that were signed in "New Era" also, if we say McDavid is the carrier of it....

I will say you can twist it and rename it as much as you want, in my times ( and obviously in times of most of GMs ) that kind of contract was / is called overpayment.

Aug. 20, 2019 at 2:00 p.m.

#148

draft_em_sign_em_trade_em

Joined: Nov. 2018

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Quoting: Laudan

Sorry Random; Laudan wins this battle.

Aug. 20, 2019 at 3:59 p.m.

#149

Random2152

Thread Starter

Just Keep Swimming

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Quoting: draft_em_sign_em_trade_em

Sorry Random; Laudan wins this battle.

Not at all. This crap just isn't worth my time after the previous 6 pages (I think we are one away from 7 right now lol).

Aug. 20, 2019 at 4:24 p.m.

#150

SpaghettiPasta

i hope ur hungry now

Joined: Oct. 2017

Posts: 2,411

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Quoting: Random2152

Not at all. This crap just isn't worth my time after the previous 6 pages (I think we are one away from 7 right now lol).

Let's get this to ten!

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