Forums/Armchair-GM

My Final Word on a Marner Contract

Created by: Random2152
Initial Creation Date: Aug 16, 2019
Published: Aug 17 at 3:46 pm
Team: 2019-20 Toronto Maple Leafs
Team Explanation
For those of you who do not want to read this lengthy post, the tl;dr version is I will live with a 7@10.5aav deal (all in SB's and with a 20+ team NTC/NMC). It is an overpayment by ~1-1.5 million, but considering all young stars are underpaid relative to their production (even McDavid, Matthews, and insert young star here) I will live with it.
Below is a projected Leafs roster with the 'fair' Marner contract.

For those of you who want to see contract comparables and a deeper breakdown; grab the popcorn.

Going based on news (Matthews) and my opinions/100% factual statements (not Matthews) here are a list of contract comparables for Marner (in no particular order). There are other comparable players but I will only be profiling some of the more prominent ones who currently have a contract.
Before you start, remember that the Matthews deal was signed in a new era of contracts for star centres so his % is by far the highest (that and the fact that he isn't a comparable for any of these players except for Kane).

Name - Contract - Starting Year - Cap% of starting year

Matthews- 5@11.634 - 2019-20 - 14.27%
Kane-------- 5@6.300 - 2010-11 - 10.61%
Tarasenko- 8@7.500 - 2015-16 - 10.50%
Aho---------- 5@8.454 - 2019-20 - 10.37%
Nylander-- 6@6.962 - 2018-19 - 8.76%
Pastrnak-- 6@6.666 - 2017-18 - 8.89%
Gaudreau- 6@6.750 - 2016-17 - 9.25%
Meier------- 4@6.000 - 2019-20 - 7.36%

A basic average on the term and the % gives you a contract of 5.625 years at a 10% hit. That gives you roughly a 5@8 - 6@8.5 which is right around the Aho contract and intrinsically is fairly close in terms of Marner's actual value on that term. At this point however, I do not think he will get his intrinsic worth and will be badly overpaid.

Basic counting stats (in per game for context):
Name - Year 1 GPG/PPG - Year 2 GPG/PPG - Year 3 GPG/PPG - etc, until 2nd contract starts

Matthews-- 0.49/0.84 - 0.55/1.02 - 0.54/1.07
Kane--------- 0.26/0.88 - 0.31/0.88 - 0.37/1.07
Tarasenko- 0.21/0.29 - 0.33/0.67 - 0.48/0.95
Aho---------- 0.29/0.60 - 0.37/0.83 - 0.37/1.01
Marner----- 0.25/0.79 - 0.27/0.84 - 0.32/1.15
Nylander--- 0.27/.059 - 0.27-0.75 - 0.24-0.74
Pastrnak--- 0.22/0.59 - 0.29/0.51 - 0.45/0.93
Gaudreau- 1.00/1.00 - 0.30/0.80 - 0.38/0.99
Meier------- 0.09/0.18 - 0.26/0.44

Basic counting stats (in /pg context) essentially show that (Auston Matthews is a ****ing beast) Marner is extremely comparable with players like Aho and Gaudreau, and is a step above Nylander while being multiple steps below Matthews.

Going off of this we can guess at a 'fair' contract as being the average of Gaudreau and Aho's deals. That comes to 5.5@9.81% or 5.5@8. Gaudreau was signed in a past RFA contract scenario, so I think it would be fair to add up to 1 million to this aav in order to account for this (surpassing the Aho deal in he skew). Strictly value wise this is what he is worth and my highest 'fair' valuation on him of 6@9.000 seems mostly in line with this projection. I will be basing any contract signed off of this number, and will be shocked if he comes in anywhere near it from the news I have been hearing.

As CF doesn't have the ability to put images in these descriptions, I will be adding the advanced metrics down below to show how Meier is better than his counting stats show and how Mitch and Aho are very close.

As a conclusion to this; I will say that I will be able to live with a deal that surpasses his intrinsic value as long as it comes with term. I would be okay with up to 7@10.5aav based on his age and the fact that he should continue to get better. I am still irked that JT took a large discount to come here just for Mitch to put the teams financial future in jeopardy by demanding a massive overpayment and am annoyed at Shanahan and Dubas for (reportedly) giving it to him.
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
Marner, Mitchell6$9,000,000
Buyouts
  • Mikhail Grabovski: $0
Retained Salary Transactions
  • Phil Kessel: $1,200,000 (15%)
DRAFT YEARROUND 1ROUND 2ROUND 3ROUND 4ROUND 5ROUND 6ROUND 7
2020
TOR
CBJ
TOR
VGK
TOR
CAR
COL
EDM
SJS
STL
WPG
2021
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
2022
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES BONUSESCAP SPACE
22$81,500,000$80,959,699$0$0$540,301
Left WingCenterRight Wing
TOR
Hyman, Zach
$2,250,000
LW
NTC
UFA - 2
TOR
Tavares, John
$11,000,000
C
NMC
UFA - 6
TOR
Marner, Mitchell
$9,000,000
RW
UFA - 6
TOR
Johnsson, Andreas
$3,400,000
LW
UFA - 4
TOR
Matthews, Auston
$11,634,000
C
UFA - 5
TOR
Nylander, William
$6,962,366
RW, C
UFA - 5
TOR
Mikheyev, Ilya
$925,000
LW, RW
RFA - 1
TOR
Kerfoot, Alexander
$3,500,000
C, LW
UFA - 4
TOR
Kapanen, Kasperi
$3,200,000
RW
RFA - 3
TOR
Moore, Trevor
$775,000
RW, LW
RFA - 2
TOR
Spezza, Jason
$700,000
C, RW
NTC
UFA - 1
TOR
Shore, Nick
$750,000
C
UFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
TOR
Muzzin, Jake
$4,000,000
LD
UFA - 1
TOR
Barrie, Tyson
$2,750,000
RD
UFA - 1
TOR
Andersen, Frederik
$5,000,000
G
NTC
UFA - 2
TOR
Rielly, Morgan
$5,000,000
LD
UFA - 3
TOR
Ceci, Cody
$4,500,000
RD
UFA - 1
TOR
Hutchinson, Michael
$700,000
G
UFA - 1
TOR
Marincin, Martin
$700,000
LD
UFA - 1
TOR
Schmaltz, Jordan
$700,000
RD
RFA - 1
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
TOR
Petan, Nicolas
$775,000
LW, RW, C
RFA - 2
TOR
Dermott, Travis
$863,333
LD
RFA - 1
TOR
Clarkson, David
$5,250,000
RW
NMC NTC
UFA - 1
TOR
Holl, Justin
$675,000
RD
UFA - 1
TOR
Horton, Nathan
$5,300,000
RW
NMC NTC
UFA - 1

Embed Code

  • To display this team on another website or blog, add this iFrame to the appropriate page
  • Customize the height attribute in the iFrame code below to fit your website appropriately. Minimum recommended: 400px.

Text-Embed

Click to Highlight
Aug 17 at 6:27
#126
Thread Starter
The evil stats guy
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 4,014
Likes: 1,664
Quoting: BrandonDubinskyGOAT
Do you know who Evgeni Malkin had when he won the scoring title, MVP and most outstanding player award? Freaking James Neal! Not saying he is a bad player, but he’s not Leon Draisaitl or even Mitch Marner. Surely you can agree on this.


Look at who JT's wingers were in the past (and even D core). Marner is the best winger he has ever had. Peak neal + Letang is FAR more than JT ever got.
SpaghettiPasta and oneX liked this.
Aug 17 at 6:28
#127
BrandonDubinskyGoat
Joined: Apr 2019
Posts: 2,164
Likes: 453
Quoting: Random2152
I mean aside from the fact that JT has increased his wingers ability more than Malkin?
Tell me, what years do you consider "peak Malkin"?
I have something for you going back to 07-08 (although JT wasnt there yet.)


JT hasn’t increased his linemates’ abilities more than Geno. Geno made Max Talbot look like a top 6 winger on a cup contender as well as Ruslan Fedotenko. He made James Neal a 40 goal scorer in the lowest scoring era of hockey. Peak Malkin from 2009-2012 was very close to Crosby and Ovechkin’s level.
Aug 17 at 6:29
#128
BrandonDubinskyGoat
Joined: Apr 2019
Posts: 2,164
Likes: 453
Quoting: SpaghettiPasta
OKAY. Tell me what you think Marner is worth. Not what he will make. What he is worth.


What Marner a worth? 9 million if the term is 5 years.
Aug 17 at 6:30
#129
I just need sauce
Joined: Oct 2017
Posts: 2,012
Likes: 808
Quoting: BrandonDubinskyGOAT
What Marner a worth? 9 million if the term is 5 years.


I agree
Aug 17 at 6:31
#130
BrandonDubinskyGoat
Joined: Apr 2019
Posts: 2,164
Likes: 453
Quoting: Random2152
Look at who JT's wingers were in the past (and even D core). Marner is the best winger he has ever had. Peak neal + Letang is FAR more than JT ever got.


I consider last season JT’s peak. Marner is already better than peak Neal, I don’t know why you think otherwise. Rielly is just as good as peak Letang, if not better.
Aug 17 at 6:32
#131
Joined: Mar 2019
Posts: 826
Likes: 831
Quoting: Random2152
Have you seen what happened to his wingers after they left JT? I could get 20-30 points on JT's line not that I would be contributing anything. smile


Just to help you out (because you seem like a decent guy 😛) Tavares linemates early in his career were: Matt Moulson (not even an NHL'er now), Kyle Okposo, P. A. Parenteau and Josh Bailey. Those are just a few names that hardly scream talented.

source

Safe to say you, a few others and I have wasted enough time entertaining trolls.
Trickster and Random2152 liked this.
Aug 17 at 6:33
#132
Thread Starter
The evil stats guy
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 4,014
Likes: 1,664
Quoting: BrandonDubinskyGOAT
JT hasn’t increased his linemates’ abilities more than Geno. Geno made Max Talbot look like a top 6 winger on a cup contender as well as Ruslan Fedotenko. He made James Neal a 40 goal scorer in the lowest scoring era of hockey. Peak Malkin from 2009-2012 was very close to Crosby and Ovechkin’s level.


ECNKJNoXkAYdyOp?format=png&name=small
ECNKJNlWsAM6OOC?format=png&name=360x360
ECNKJNpWkAAAWaE?format=png&name=360x360
ECNKLkFXYAESw-2?format=png&name=small
ECNKLkLXYAY5851?format=png&name=360x360
ECNKLkKW4AMIeS6?format=png&name=360x360
rootferdukes, Trickster and oneX liked this.
Aug 17 at 6:35
#133
Thread Starter
The evil stats guy
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 4,014
Likes: 1,664
Quoting: BrandonDubinskyGOAT
Peak Malkin from 2009-2012 was very close to Crosby and Ovechkin’s level.


No
ECNKzxqXkAMQyj1?format=png&name=small
rootferdukes, SpaghettiPasta, Trickster and 1 other person liked this.
Aug 17 at 6:37
#134
Thread Starter
The evil stats guy
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 4,014
Likes: 1,664
Quoting: BrandonDubinskyGOAT
JT hasn’t increased his linemates’ abilities more than Geno. Geno made Max Talbot look like a top 6 winger on a cup contender as well as Ruslan Fedotenko. He made James Neal a 40 goal scorer in the lowest scoring era of hockey. Peak Malkin from 2009-2012 was very close to Crosby and Ovechkin’s level.


Here is Sid LAST YEAR. Don't even compare the two. You are making a fool of yourself.
ECNLLY0WkAghdbP?format=png&name=small
Trickster and oneX liked this.
Aug 17 at 6:39
#135
Thread Starter
The evil stats guy
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 4,014
Likes: 1,664
Quoting: BrandonDubinskyGOAT
I consider last season JT’s peak. Marner is already better than peak Neal, I don’t know why you think otherwise. Rielly is just as good as peak Letang, if not better.


You were asking why JT has never won anything. The answer was his **** linemates. If Ovi didn't have a run for the ages last year JT was in the Rocket convo.
oneX and Trickster liked this.
Aug 17 at 6:43
#136
Thread Starter
The evil stats guy
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 4,014
Likes: 1,664
Quoting: BrandonDubinskyGOAT
JT hasn’t increased his linemates’ abilities more than Geno. Geno made Max Talbot look like a top 6 winger on a cup contender as well as Ruslan Fedotenko. He made James Neal a 40 goal scorer in the lowest scoring era of hockey. Peak Malkin from 2009-2012 was very close to Crosby and Ovechkin’s level.


I just want to hammer this one home one last time.
ECNMqPwX4AE_e3f?format=png&name=small
And this is for you calling me delusional over having Coots>Geno
ECNM9_uW4AQTxAY?format=png&name=small
SpaghettiPasta, Trickster and oneX liked this.
Aug 17 at 7:23
#137
BrandonDubinskyGoat
Joined: Apr 2019
Posts: 2,164
Likes: 453
Quoting: Random2152
No
ECNKzxqXkAMQyj1?format=png&name=small


Quoting: Random2152
Here is Sid LAST YEAR. Don't even compare the two. You are making a fool of yourself.
ECNLLY0WkAghdbP?format=png&name=small


Quoting: Random2152
You were asking why JT has never won anything. The answer was his **** linemates. If Ovi didn't have a run for the ages last year JT was in the Rocket convo.


Quoting: Random2152
I just want to hammer this one home one last time.
ECNMqPwX4AE_e3f?format=png&name=small
And this is for you calling me delusional over having Coots>Geno
ECNM9_uW4AQTxAY?format=png&name=small


You are beyond delusional for thinking that Couturier has had the better career over Malkin. I’m sure one season tells a good sample size, especially since Malkin had a down year and was past his prime. And keep using advanced stats, since you actually think they mean something. If advanced stats were everything, there would be many players who would be ranked to have had a better career than Malkin. But since that’s all you use, that’s why you believe Malkin is not even a top 15 player of the Crosby-Ovechkin era, when he’s clearly top 3.

Even though it is true that Tavares has had relatively poor linemates throughout his career, last season was his best, and he got paired with Marner, an undeniable elite talent as well as Rielly, a top 5 Norris trophy defenseman. Malkin in 2011-12 played on a line with Neal, someone who clearly isn’t as good as Marner, plus had no puck moving defenseman that season because Letang suffered a concussion. Advanced statistics aside, it’s almost laughable to think peak Tavares is better than peak Malkin, considering JT only got 88 points playing on a very talented offensive team in an era where scoring is through the roof, whereas Malkin got 110 points (a whopping 22 more) with only one relative talented linemate thus playing in the lowest scoring era of hockey. That alone is enough to prove why Malkin is clearly the better player.

Malkin has won 2 Art Ross trophies, a Hart, a Lindsey, a Calder and he boasts a career points per game average of 1.18. In his generation only Ovechkin and Crosby are more decorated than he is, the next closest player is Patrick Kane. But sure, he is not a top player, since advanced statistics tell everything. You are clueless.
Aug 17 at 7:25
#138
BrandonDubinskyGoat
Joined: Apr 2019
Posts: 2,164
Likes: 453
Quoting: Random2152
That is actually fairly accurate. Not to the same degree but in general yes; that is what is happening.


Fair enough. Well let me put it this way. If Guentzel played on Tavares wing and Marner played on Crosby’s wing, I predict that Guentzel would get around 60-70 points whereas Marner would get 110.
Aug 17 at 7:26
#139
BrandonDubinskyGoat
Joined: Apr 2019
Posts: 2,164
Likes: 453
Quoting: Random2152
ECNKJNoXkAYdyOp?format=png&name=small
ECNKJNlWsAM6OOC?format=png&name=360x360
ECNKJNpWkAAAWaE?format=png&name=360x360
ECNKLkFXYAESw-2?format=png&name=small
ECNKLkLXYAY5851?format=png&name=360x360
ECNKLkKW4AMIeS6?format=png&name=360x360


@Capitalfail67 @BuFfaLOFaN @rangersandislesfan

I have a question for you guys. Who is the better player at their best, Evgeni Malkin or John Tavares?
Aug 17 at 7:26
#140
Thread Starter
The evil stats guy
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 4,014
Likes: 1,664
Quoting: BrandonDubinskyGOAT
You are beyond delusional for thinking that Couturier has had the better career over Malkin.


I NEVER SAID HE HAD A BETTER CAREER. I SAID HE IS BETTER RIGHT NOW. HOLY ****!
Im not even reading the rest, it isnt worth it. Have a good evening.
oneX liked this.
Aug 17 at 7:29
#141
BrandonDubinskyGoat
Joined: Apr 2019
Posts: 2,164
Likes: 453
Quoting: Random2152
I NEVER SAID HE HAD A BETTER CAREER. I SAID HE IS BETTER RIGHT NOW. HOLY ****!
Im not even reading the rest, it isnt worth it. Have a good evening.


The advanced statistics show that Couturier has been the player throughout the course of his career compared to Malkin. I just think you are all out of arguments, so have a good night.
Aug 18 at 1:06
#142
Joined: Nov 2018
Posts: 2,283
Likes: 493
Random this thread must be a record holder, let's make it past the 200 posts mark.
Random2152 liked this.
Aug 18 at 1:10
#143
Joined: Nov 2018
Posts: 2,283
Likes: 493
Quoting: Random2152
You were asking why JT has never won anything. The answer was his **** linemates. If Ovi didn't have a run for the ages last year JT was in the Rocket convo.


Thank you Marner for placing J.T.'s name in the Rocket contention. But NO Marner is garbage. huh?
Aug 18 at 2:39
#144
Joined: Jul 2018
Posts: 2,626
Likes: 1,024
Edited Aug 18 at 8:41
Quoting: Random2152
Before you start, remember that the Matthews deal was signed in a new era of contracts for star centres so his % is by far the highest

Matthews- 5@11.634 - 2019-20 - 14.27%


Seems like i overslept that one.....when was the "New Era" announced ? Which other Cs were part of it ? And GMs ?

Quoting: Random2152
I am still irked that JT took a large discount to come here just for Mitch to put the teams financial future in jeopardy by demanding a massive overpayment and am annoyed at Shanahan and Dubas for (reportedly) giving it to him.


And here the "New Era" obviously ends....cause Marner is greedy destroying the Franchise future but Matthews is Teams darling who helped by agreeing to lower Term......priceless
Aug 18 at 9:44
#145
Thread Starter
The evil stats guy
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 4,014
Likes: 1,664
Quoting: Laudan
Seems like i overslept that one.....when was the "New Era" announced ? Which other Cs were part of it ? And GMs ?



And here the "New Era" obviously ends....cause Marner is greedy destroying the Franchise future but Matthews is Teams darling who helped by agreeing to lower Term......priceless


He is asking for an overpay even by the new era standards.
And by new era, I mean no longer underpaying the young stars. Don't be stupid.
oneX liked this.
Aug 18 at 9:45
#146
Thread Starter
The evil stats guy
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 4,014
Likes: 1,664
Quoting: draft_em_sign_em_trade_em
Thank you Marner for placing J.T.'s name in the Rocket contention. But NO Marner is garbage. huh?


Lol. Marner just allowed JT to shift roles. I also never said he was garbage. He was good enough to allow JT to switch roles. I said he should get the richest winger rfa contract in history as a result of that. Don't strawman my argument.
blowing_the_zone and oneX liked this.
Aug 19 at 1:48
#147
Joined: Jul 2018
Posts: 2,626
Likes: 1,024
Edited Aug 19 at 7:14
Quoting: Random2152
He is asking for an overpay even by the new era standards.
And by new era, I mean no longer underpaying the young stars. Don't be stupid.


I wouldnt go with name calling here. You are the one ( and few others with blue blinders on ) thats talking about "New Era" where only one player got double the money that his points would actually earn him ( ofc i'm talking 8x13M contract as a starting point here but i can also take my time and go into Cap %)

Isnt Aho also Center ? Are you saying CAR were on the way to give him 8 x 11M ( if we translate 5y deal into a 8y one ) cause of the "New Era"? i can go for other RFA Cs that were signed in "New Era" also, if we say McDavid is the carrier of it....

I will say you can twist it and rename it as much as you want, in my times ( and obviously in times of most of GMs ) that kind of contract was / is called overpayment.
Aug 20 at 2:00
#148
Joined: Nov 2018
Posts: 2,283
Likes: 493
Quoting: Laudan
I wouldnt go with name calling here. You are the one ( and few others with blue blinders on ) thats talking about "New Era" where only one player got double the money that his points would actually earn him ( ofc i'm talking 8x13M contract as a starting point here but i can also take my time and go into Cap %)

Isnt Aho also Center ? Are you saying CAR were on the way to give him 8 x 11M ( if we translate 5y deal into a 8y one ) cause of the "New Era"? i can go for other RFA Cs that were signed in "New Era" also, if we say McDavid is the carrier of it....

I will say you can twist it and rename it as much as you want, in my times ( and obviously in times of most of GMs ) that kind of contract was / is called overpayment.


Sorry Random; Laudan wins this battle.
Aug 20 at 3:59
#149
Thread Starter
The evil stats guy
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 4,014
Likes: 1,664
Quoting: draft_em_sign_em_trade_em
Sorry Random; Laudan wins this battle.


Not at all. This crap just isn't worth my time after the previous 6 pages (I think we are one away from 7 right now lol).
Aug 20 at 4:24
#150
I just need sauce
Joined: Oct 2017
Posts: 2,012
Likes: 808
Quoting: Random2152
Not at all. This crap just isn't worth my time after the previous 6 pages (I think we are one away from 7 right now lol).

Let's get this to ten!
Random2152 liked this.
 
Reply
To create a post please Login or Register
Question:
Options:
Add Option
Remove Option
Submit Poll