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Another inexperienced backup goalie

Created by: Eli
Team: 2019-20 Columbus Blue Jackets
Initial Creation Date: Aug. 18, 2019
Published: Aug. 18, 2019
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
Last year Copley and Korpisalo each started 27 games behind terrific defenses. Korpisalo won ten games, Copley 16. Merzlikens doesn't have to be traded. He could develop in the AHL, but I think whether it's Jarry, Copley, or Ulmark, CBJ could use another NHL experienced goalie to share the workload with Korpisalo this year, if they're hoping to stay in the playoff picture, which I think is achievable.

The other option is to go for a down-on-their-luck starter, like maybe Cory Schneider...New Jersey would give the Jackets picks for taking on his contract, and maybe CBJ's defense could help him get his game back together, but do the Jackets want that much term and cap hit, for that much inconsistency?
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
8$6,500,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
1$3,000,000
1$700,000
Trades
1.
VGK
  1. Merzlikins, Elvis
Additional Details:
Because he's already there.
2.
CBJ
  1. Copley, Pheonix
Additional Details:
Played just as many games as Korpisalo last year (27), behind an equivalent defense. Won six more games. Could work them as a 1b/1c pair. Not ideal, but a tiny bit better better than Korpisalo/Merzlikens, at each position. Maybe enough to stay in the playoff picture this year and next, while Korpisalo (three years younger) keeps improving?
WSH
  1. Marchenko, Kirill [Reserve List]
Additional Details:
I think the fair trade value for an absolute bottom-tier starting goalie is a 2nd round pick. CBJ doesn't have one of those until 2022. Marchenko is a 19 year old unsigned 2nd round pick, playing overseas in Russia. Washington has had good luck getting Russian kids to move to North America, to play with Ovechkin, so maybe Marchenko seems less risky to WSH than to CBJ?
Buyouts
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2020
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2021
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2022
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ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
23$81,500,000$65,248,332$0$2,500,000$16,251,668
Left WingCentreRight Wing
$3,000,000$3,000,000
LW, RW
UFA
Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
$894,166$894,166 (Performance Bonus$2,500,000$2M)
C
UFA - 1
Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
$5,875,000$5,875,000
RW, LW
NTC
UFA - 6
Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
$1,375,000$1,375,000
LW, C, RW
M-NTC, NMC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
$4,900,000$4,900,000
C
UFA - 4
Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
$2,750,000$2,750,000
LW, RW
UFA - 4
Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
$5,850,000$5,850,000
C, LW
M-NTC, NMC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
$3,750,000$3,750,000
C, LW
UFA - 3
Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
$1,850,000$1,850,000
RW, LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Vegas Golden Knights
$725,000$725,000
LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
$2,750,000$2,750,000
C, RW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
$2,500,000$2,500,000
RW, LW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
$750,000$750,000
LW
UFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
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$4,600,000$4,600,000
LD
UFA - 2
Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
$5,400,000$5,400,000
RD
UFA - 3
Logo of the Washington Capitals
$1,100,000$1,100,000
G
UFA - 3
Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
$6,500,000$6,500,000
LD
UFA - 3
Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
$1,062,500$1,062,500
RD
UFA - 2
Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
$1,150,000$1,150,000
G
UFA - 1
Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
$1,633,333$1,633,333
LD
UFA - 3
Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
$2,700,000$2,700,000
LD/RD
UFA - 3
Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
$725,000$725,000
LD/RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets
$700,000$700,000
RD
UFA - 2

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Aug. 18, 2019 at 11:07 a.m.
#1
Rangers 2024
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Stop trying to lowkey make cap space off of us, it wont work

-every non caps fan on this site
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Aug. 18, 2019 at 11:32 a.m.
#2
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Edited Aug. 18, 2019 at 11:51 a.m.
Quoting: Ragsandbluesfan
Stop trying to lowkey make cap space off of us, it wont work

-every non caps fan on this site


It's so true. And it's probably even more true, inside the division. But the $3M of cap space next summer and the next few years that CBJ saves by starting Copley for 42 games this year, and not owing Korpisalo a dime above his QO next summer when he's still technically just a backup?* That's a lot more cap space than the $600k the Caps save by playing Vanecek as their backup this year. So I think if Washington decides this is something they're interested in, CBJ probably can come up with some combination of picks and prospects to get it done. But, of course..... [crickets].

*is this even clear? I'm trying to say that if CBJ start Korpisalo for 45 games in his contract year, behind their stellar defense, he comes out of it earning $4.5M a year, but if they just give Korpisalo 40 games behind a slightly more developed guy with similar skills, he stays in backup territory and maybe they get through arbitration with 2 years at 1.5M for Korpisalo's next deal. During those two years, Korpisalo does improve faster than Copley and still takes over as starter, but the total goaltending budget is under $3M, instead of close to six. This allows the Jackets to load up on help elsewhere, and lock up PLD, to at least a medium-term deal. I signed Vanek for just one year, and left six M, so even if the cap doesn't increase, I"m sure Dubois doesn't say no to eight years x 10M. If they have to trade Josh Anderson and bring up Foudy to make that work, so be it. So while I totally agree that no team is trying to donate 600k in cap space for Washington to open with three guys in the press box instead of two, I can think of some cap reasons why Columbs gets interested in starting Copley for a year, while he's still marginally better than Korpisalo.
Aug. 18, 2019 at 1:23 p.m.
#3
JarmoK
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Dude this is even worse. Elvis has a really high ceiling, and CBJ don’t need more bottom 6 forwards. Marchenko is worth way way more than a garbage backup goalie. Take this crap to another team man
Aug. 18, 2019 at 1:34 p.m.
#4
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Edited Aug. 18, 2019 at 1:52 p.m.
Quoting: JarmoK
Dude this is even worse. Elvis has a really high ceiling, and CBJ don’t need more bottom 6 forwards. Marchenko is worth way way more than a garbage backup goalie. Take this crap to another team man


Usually you're really chill, so I'm sorry I've offended you by trading away a prospect I know nothing about. Merz to Vegas was just an Elvis joke. Because Elvis Presley....? Not a serious statement that Carrier adds anything to Columbus, although he's a perfectly decent skater. We agree it's unnecessary.

I hope we also agree CBJ want to save cap space to sign PLD even if a recession keeps the cap from going up? If so, I posted a couple other versions, one showing CBJ paying Korpisalo next year as a starter, and one showing them paying him as if he's been a backup for one more year, but has starting potential. They're already up, but I don't want to further offend someone claiming to be the Jackets' GM, so I certainly won't post any more builds about my second-favorite team for at least a few days.

But if you'd forgive one more question, how much move valuable is Marchenko than a Copley or Korpisalo? Like.... is this something where you want a starting goalie plus a late pick for an unsigned KHLer? Wouldn't blame you for asking. Or if Marchenko and Columbus are totally going to work it out in a year or two, then is there a different price at which an experienced backup goalie with numbers a bit better than Korpisalo's, and a contract a little cheaper and longer could fit? Thanks!
Aug. 18, 2019 at 2:11 p.m.
#5
JarmoK
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Quoting: Eli
Usually you're really chill, so I'm sorry I've offended you by trading away a prospect I know nothing about. Merz to Vegas was just an Elvis joke. Because Elvis Presley....? Not a serious statement that Carrier adds anything to Columbus, although he's a perfectly decent skater. We agree it's unnecessary.

I hope we also agree CBJ want to save cap space to sign PLD even if a recession keeps the cap from going up? If so, I posted a couple other versions, one showing CBJ paying Korpisalo next year as a starter, and one showing them paying him as if he's been a backup for one more year, but has starting potential. They're already up, but I don't want to further offend someone claiming to be the Jackets' GM, so I certainly won't post any more builds about my second-favorite team for at least a few days.

But if you'd forgive one more question, how much move valuable is Marchenko than a Copley or Korpisalo? Like.... is this something where you want a starting goalie plus a late pick for an unsigned KHLer? Wouldn't blame you for asking. Or if Marchenko and Columbus are totally going to work it out in a year or two, then is there a different price at which an experienced backup goalie with numbers a bit better than Korpisalo's, and a contract a little cheaper and longer could fit? Thanks!


Marchenko is 19, he’s gonna play in the KHL this year and on Russia’s WJC team. Tough to gauge actual value on young, unproven Russians like this, but I think he has the potential to become a top 6 power forward with a good shot
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Aug. 18, 2019 at 2:26 p.m.
#6
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Quoting: JarmoK
Marchenko is 19, he’s gonna play in the KHL this year and on Russia’s WJC team. Tough to gauge actual value on young, unproven Russians like this, but I think he has the potential to become a top 6 power forward with a good shot


Cool. Thanks so much! So it sounds like he's now worth more than the 2nd round pick you put in... I just figured Copley was worth a 2nd round pick, but CBJ doesn't have one for a bit. Do you think they have other prospects at forward or RHD that they'd happily drop to add a short-term starting goalie, stay in the playoff hunt this year, and avoid a big salary cap headache the year after, when Korpisalo, Anderson, and PLD re-sign?

Washington, if it keeps Holtby, and doesn't bring Samsonov or Vanecek up to the NHL at all, can just expose Copley to Seattle in the expansion draft, so he has significant strategic value to the Caps, in terms of protecting two blue chip goalie prospects from expansion, due to his cheap, long-term contract. This is not a cap dump that I think Washington should make if there's no return, partly because I think Copley might still be better than Samsonov or Vanecek. But if the return is something worth about a 2nd round pick, then I think they consider moving a pretty good netminder on a very, very good contract. I would not guess that CBJ wants to trade their 2022 2nd, after not having one for the previous two years, although that would probably do it. But if continuing to develop like a 2nd round pick should and play a role on a national junior team means Marchenko is now worth, like, a 2nd and a 4th, I could imagine Washington wanting to bid Copley plus a 4th for his rights, or maybe Copley plus Stephenson, if a checking wing/faceoff specialist/PK regular might see a little more ice time in Ohio than DC.
Aug. 18, 2019 at 6:24 p.m.
#7
JarmoK
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Quoting: Eli
Cool. Thanks so much! So it sounds like he's now worth more than the 2nd round pick you put in... I just figured Copley was worth a 2nd round pick, but CBJ doesn't have one for a bit. Do you think they have other prospects at forward or RHD that they'd happily drop to add a short-term starting goalie, stay in the playoff hunt this year, and avoid a big salary cap headache the year after, when Korpisalo, Anderson, and PLD re-sign?

Washington, if it keeps Holtby, and doesn't bring Samsonov or Vanecek up to the NHL at all, can just expose Copley to Seattle in the expansion draft, so he has significant strategic value to the Caps, in terms of protecting two blue chip goalie prospects from expansion, due to his cheap, long-term contract. This is not a cap dump that I think Washington should make if there's no return, partly because I think Copley might still be better than Samsonov or Vanecek. But if the return is something worth about a 2nd round pick, then I think they consider moving a pretty good netminder on a very, very good contract. I would not guess that CBJ wants to trade their 2022 2nd, after not having one for the previous two years, although that would probably do it. But if continuing to develop like a 2nd round pick should and play a role on a national junior team means Marchenko is now worth, like, a 2nd and a 4th, I could imagine Washington wanting to bid Copley plus a 4th for his rights, or maybe Copley plus Stephenson, if a checking wing/faceoff specialist/PK regular might see a little more ice time in Ohio than DC.


That’s the thing, they don’t need another goalie. Korpi and Elvis will fight it out this season. They won’t go spend more picks, prospects, etc. when they are confident with these two. Especially won’t go after someone like Copley, who is basically Korpi 2.0
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Aug. 18, 2019 at 7:33 p.m.
#8
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Quoting: JarmoK
That’s the thing, they don’t need another goalie. Korpi and Elvis will fight it out this season. They won’t go spend more picks, prospects, etc. when they are confident with these two. Especially won’t go after someone like Copley, who is basically Korpi 2.0


I think we completely agree on our assessment of Copley, and only disagree on how to manage Columbus' salary cap, to keep Anderson and Dubois.

I started try to look up comparables from the Swiss A league to see why you're so high on Merzlikins. Swiss goalies Berra and Gerber maintained their save percentages when they came over, and didn't need much time in the AHL, so it's not unreasonable to think he'll step in at .920.... but two examples aren't much to go on. On the other hand, Gerber's spct numbers pre-AHL come from the SEL--I can't find Swiss-A spct going that far back. smile http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=47213

Berra came over a bunch more recently and maintained the same spct from the Swiss-A league into his nine game stint in the AHL, but then moved up to the NHL and fell off a slight cliff: http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=84109

Aebischer started in the ECHL for a few years, and then played in the AHL for a few, so there's no immediate comparison: http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=29051

Basically, Merzlikins is Schroedinger's goalie. The puck is both in the net behind him, and not in the net, until we see what happens. smile

I admire the courage to throw him out there and find out! But it doesn't matter because I think that Korpisalo or Copley can step in and play 50 games behind Columbus' defense and be above average. I just worry about the salary cap number Korpi pulls in 20-21, if he's the guy all year. But maybe long term Marchenko has a higher ceiling than Anderson? I don't know much about Marchenko, but I think Anderson is coming along pretty well, overall, and is maybe closer to being a good NHL power forward, today?
Aug. 18, 2019 at 7:41 p.m.
#9
JarmoK
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Quoting: Eli
I think we completely agree on our assessment of Copley, and only disagree on how to manage Columbus' salary cap, to keep Anderson and Dubois.

I started try to look up comparables from the Swiss A league to see why you're so high on Merzlikins. Swiss goalies Berra and Gerber maintained their save percentages when they came over, and didn't need much time in the AHL, so it's not unreasonable to think he'll step in at .920.... but two examples aren't much to go on. On the other hand, Gerber's spct numbers pre-AHL come from the SEL--I can't find Swiss-A spct going that far back. smile http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=47213

Berra came over a bunch more recently and maintained the same spct from the Swiss-A league into his nine game stint in the AHL, but then moved up to the NHL and fell off a slight cliff: http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=84109

Aebischer started in the ECHL for a few years, and then played in the AHL for a few, so there's no immediate comparison: http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=29051

Basically, Merzlikins is Schroedinger's goalie. The puck is both in the net behind him, and not in the net, until we see what happens. smile

I admire the courage to throw him out there and find out! But it doesn't matter because I think that Korpisalo or Copley can step in and play 50 games behind Columbus' defense and be above average. I just worry about the salary cap number Korpi pulls in 20-21, if he's the guy all year. But maybe long term Marchenko has a higher ceiling than Anderson? I don't know much about Marchenko, but I think Anderson is coming along pretty well, overall, and is maybe closer to being a good NHL power forward, today?


Even if Korpi is lights out, the most he’ll make is like $3.5m or so. There is plenty of cap space for PLD, Andy, etc
Aug. 18, 2019 at 7:44 p.m.
#10
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Edited Aug. 18, 2019 at 7:58 p.m.
Quoting: JarmoK
Even if Korpi is lights out, the most he’ll make is like $3.5m or so. There is plenty of cap space for PLD, Andy, etc


Young guys tend to keep improving, though, and everybody plays their best in contract years. If you get 80 points from PLD, 33 goals from Anderson, and 35 wins from Korpisalo, all bets are off.

ETA: and of course my next thought after typing this was, "so what? If they get those numbers they're in the playoffs!" But then I started thinking about how much NJ, NYR, FLA, and Car are improving, and realized even then, it's uncertain, especially with an unproven backup goalie straight from a league that no goalie has moved directly to the NHL from, since it kept stats. Maybe Merzlikins comes in and plays lights out, or maybe he's got an .870 spct and wins four games.

I'm not sure whether adding a copy of Korpisalo is the right move, or not, but I do think CBJ should look to add a known quantity to the goalie rotation, somehow.

2nd edit: Here's a team I made with a cap-dump backup goalie, and all the RFAs having career years: https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1390822 They're a whole bunch over the cap, if it doesn't go up.

And here's a team I made with Copley as a sandbag on Korpisalo, keeping him from starting for one more year, until after PLD signs: https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1390769 The cap only has to go up half a million, and it works.... Of course, I might be underpaying Anderson, if he really breaks 30 goals, but I also might be overpaying PLD by just as much, depending how quickly he keeps improving, so hopefully it comes out in the wash. It doesn't have to be Copley. I just think the situation Copley and Korpisalo play in is similar enough to think that if one can start, either can.
Aug. 18, 2019 at 11:08 p.m.
#11
JarmoK
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Quoting: Eli
Young guys tend to keep improving, though, and everybody plays their best in contract years. If you get 80 points from PLD, 33 goals from Anderson, and 35 wins from Korpisalo, all bets are off.

ETA: and of course my next thought after typing this was, "so what? If they get those numbers they're in the playoffs!" But then I started thinking about how much NJ, NYR, FLA, and Car are improving, and realized even then, it's uncertain, especially with an unproven backup goalie straight from a league that no goalie has moved directly to the NHL from, since it kept stats. Maybe Merzlikins comes in and plays lights out, or maybe he's got an .870 spct and wins four games.

I'm not sure whether adding a copy of Korpisalo is the right move, or not, but I do think CBJ should look to add a known quantity to the goalie rotation, somehow.

2nd edit: Here's a team I made with a cap-dump backup goalie, and all the RFAs having career years: https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1390822 They're a whole bunch over the cap, if it doesn't go up.

And here's a team I made with Copley as a sandbag on Korpisalo, keeping him from starting for one more year, until after PLD signs: https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1390769 The cap only has to go up half a million, and it works.... Of course, I might be underpaying Anderson, if he really breaks 30 goals, but I also might be overpaying PLD by just as much, depending how quickly he keeps improving, so hopefully it comes out in the wash. It doesn't have to be Copley. I just think the situation Copley and Korpisalo play in is similar enough to think that if one can start, either can.


Again, why overpay for something you already have? I don’t know what is hard to understand about that. CBJ trust their goalie situation, don’t want to spend any more draft picks, and don’t need goalie tandems making $10m+ with other guys to sign. If they wanted another goalie, they would have one by now. Elvis was one of the best goalies in all of Europe the past few years, Korpi has shown that he can play well in stretches, and even Vehilainanen is nothing to scoff at. They really really don’t need another bad goalie to add to the situation.
 
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