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Projecting the Salaries of RFA Forwards

Created by: dad
Team: 2019-20 Winnipeg Jets
Initial Creation Date: Aug. 17, 2019
Published: Aug. 18, 2019
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
There are a few young RFA forwards still yet to sign, but whoever signs first at this point will most likely dictate the value of all other RFA’s. A direct comparable, a team comparable, and cap space will all be taken into account when projecting these contracts. The direct comparable will be a player from any team who has a similar playing style and value to the player. The team comparable will be a teammate who plays similar minutes and has a similar role.


Mikko Rantanen - $8,000,000 x 5
Direct comparable – Blake Wheeler, $8,250,000 x 5
Team comparable – Nathan MacKinnon, $6,300,000 x 7
Colorado Avalanche cap space – $16,400,000

Sakic hasn’t reached out to Rantanen yet and is waiting for other RFA’s to sign before contract negotiations with Rantanen pick up. He has lots of cap space to sign Rantanen and Rantanen has previously expressed lots of interest in staying in Colorado. The big playmaking winger will most likely earn more than MacKinnon and become Colorado’s highest paid player.


Mathew Tkachuk – $7,000,000 x 6
Direct comparable – Brad Marchand, $6,125,000 x 8
Team comparable – Johnny Gaudreau, $6,750,000 x 6
Calgary Flames cap space – $7,750,000

This deal would make Tkachuk the highest paid player on Calgary. He’s a great net-front presence and is a textbook agitator. He put up numbers very similar to Marchand when he was nearing his contract year.


Kyle Connor – $6,500,000 x 7
Direct Comparable – David Pastrnak, $6,666,666 x 6
Team Comparable – Nikolaj Ehlers, $6,000,000 x 7
Winnipeg Jets cap space – $17,500,000

Connor is a great offensive-minded winger capable who is a goal scorer and a play maker. He will most likely end up with something similar to teammate Nikolaj Ehlers, who signed a 7 x $6,000,000 deal last season.


Patrick Laine – $3,500,000 x 2
Winnipeg Jets Cap Space – $17,500,000

I skipped comparables because I think Laine will most likely get a bride deal. The potential is there, but Laine often looked lost last season, especially in the D zone. He is definitely capable of being a consistent 40+ goal scorer but has been two one-dimensional and inconsistent to earn a long term contract or big money. He did have 30 goals last season, but 11 of those were scored in three games. Offering him a long term deal would be risky.


Brock Boeser – $6,500 ,000 x 6
Direct Comparable – David Pastrnak, $6,666,666 x 6
Team Comparable – Bo Horvat, $5,500,000 x 6
Vancoucer Canucks cap space – $6,500,000

Boeser is a great producing winger and will only get better. This would be a pretty standard contract for a winger who generates offense.


Braden Point –$9,000,000 x 8
Direct Comparable – Leon Draisaitl, $8,500,000 x 8
Team Comparable – Steven Stamkos, $8,500,000 x 8
Tampa Bay Lightning cap space – $9,000,000

This would be a deal that would put Points AAV right between Stamkos and Kucherov. Tampa has consistently gone with long contracts up and down their roster and the Vasilevskiy and Gourde signings show that Brisebois is probably going to continue on that method.


Mitch Marner – No clue
Direct Comparable – Johnny Gaudreau, $6,750,000 x 6
Team Comparable – Auston Mathews, $11,634,000 x 5
Toronto Maple Leafs cap space – It’s complicated
I’m not going to pretend I know the CBA or what Dubas is up to. From what I can understand, they have at least $9,000,000 to sign him, but apparently he wants more. Marners teammates seem to be extremely confident that he will sign.
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
5$8,000,000
6$7,000,000
7$6,500,000
2$3,500,000
6$6,500,000
8$9,000,000
8$100,000,000
Trades
1.
WPG
  1. Tkachuk, Matthew [RFA Rights]
CGY
2.
WPG
  1. Marner, Mitchell [RFA Rights]
TOR
3.
WPG
  1. Rantanen, Mikko [RFA Rights]
COL
4.
WPG
  1. Boeser, Brock [RFA Rights]
VAN
5.
WPG
  1. Point, Brayden [RFA Rights]
TBL
Buried
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2020
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2021
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2022
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ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
10$81,500,000$189,324,168$0$0-$107,824,168
Left WingCentreRight Wing
$9,000,000$9,000,000
C, RW
UFA - 3
$8,000,000$8,000,000
RW, C
UFA - 6
$6,500,000$6,500,000
RW
UFA - 3
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$3,500,000$3,500,000
C, RW, LW
UFA - 2
$100,000,000$100,000,000
RW
UFA - 6
$7,000,000$7,000,000
RW
UFA - 3
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$6,500,000$6,500,000
LW
UFA - 7
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$894,167$894,167
LW, RW
RFA - 3
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$741,667$741,667
LW, RW
UFA - 3
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$700,000$700,000
LW
UFA - 1

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Aug. 18, 2019 at 5:09 p.m.
#1
Spleenmaster1002
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3.5x2 is way too low for Laine even on a 2 year bridge.
Aug. 18, 2019 at 5:14 p.m.
#2
MisstheWhalers
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Even on a bridge deal Laine will cost $7M like it or not.
If these players were looking for what you're suggesting here they'd almost all surely be signed by now.
Either these RFA'S are beyond greedy and think they're worth far more then they actually are or the union is telling them to hold out for as long as possible to make the most money possible.
Aug. 18, 2019 at 5:17 p.m.
#3
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dad
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Quoting: Spleenmaster1002
3.5x2 is way too low for Laine even on a 2 year bridge.


Probably, you could easily justify him making more but keep in mind the Kuch bridge deal was 2.75 x 3. The Laine deal I made was more about the term and less about the AAV.
Aug. 18, 2019 at 5:18 p.m.
#4
Once a Kings Fan Too
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I think your analysis is very good. What makes sense and what happens, however, are not always directly related.
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Aug. 18, 2019 at 5:29 p.m.
#5
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Quoting: dad
Probably, you could easily justify him making more but keep in mind the Kuch bridge deal was 2.75 x 3. The Laine deal I made was more about the term and less about the AAV.


I'm like 90% sure the kuch deal was 5. Something x3, and the cap has gone up since then sooooo
Aug. 18, 2019 at 5:31 p.m.
#6
hey look a squirrel
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Interesting read, I will say team comparables are non-factor in negotiations.

GMs use league comparables.


I think overall you are a little light on $$$ for all the players you mentioned.
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Aug. 18, 2019 at 5:39 p.m.
#7
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Quoting: Trickster
Interesting read, I will say team comparables are non-factor in negotiations.

GMs use league comparables.


I think overall you are a little light on $$$ for all the players you mentioned.


Thisthisthis!
For over 25 years contracts are offered and signed based on league wide comparables. Now some people here may not like that or think things are headed for a change and maybe they are, maybe not. Said changes will only come when the next CBA is negiotated.

Until then, league wide comparables is how these RFA's should get paid.
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Aug. 18, 2019 at 5:52 p.m.
#8
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dad
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Quoting: Trickster
Interesting read, I will say team comparables are non-factor in negotiations.

GMs use league comparables.


I think overall you are a little light on $$$ for all the players you mentioned.


Quoting: oneX
Thisthisthis!
For over 25 years contracts are offered and signed based on league wide comparables. Now some people here may not like that or think things are headed for a change and maybe they are, maybe not. Said changes will only come when the next CBA is negiotated.

Until then, league wide comparables is how these RFA's should get paid.


The team comparable for me is usually an indicator of how the front office likes doing things (ie term on a contract, bonuses, etc). If you look at most teams players who have similar roles have similar salaries. It's not as accurate as a direct comparable but it is important to take into account.
Aug. 18, 2019 at 6:09 p.m.
#9
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Quoting: dad
The team comparable for me is usually an indicator of how the front office likes doing things (ie term on a contract, bonuses, etc). If you look at most teams players who have similar roles have similar salaries. It's not as accurate as a direct comparable but it is important to take into account.


I still feel league comparables is how contracts are decided upon.
With this RFA class being as talented as it is, the NHLPA is going to have to make an educated decision on how the 50% pie gets split up. The owners won't care how the pie is split up...they only care of the 50-50 side of things.

@palhal brought this up a day ago and mentioned that every player gets a vote and so it's unlikely that the older PA members would allow to be thrown under the proverbial bus financially.
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Aug. 18, 2019 at 7:14 p.m.
#10
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It's worth noting, at least for the Lightning, that those cap space figures are misleading. Because the cap situation is worsening next year, we won't be able to afford performance overages, so our realistic cap space is closer to $8m. Also, I will point out that the Vasilevskiy and Kucherov signings followed bridge deal, and Yanni Gourde is already 27 (so a bridge deal with an RFA expiry wasn't an option). BriseBois has yet to sign any young players off ELCs to contracts, and it really remains to be seen whether or not he'll follow the bridge deal approach or not. He was the main one responsible for managing our cap situation under Yzerman, so it's quite possible that the Yzerman-era bridge deals were something he was actually behind, but again, that might just have been Yzerman's approach. I also don't know about Draisatl as a comparable for Point. They're both very different players. Point is a fast, offensively talented shutdown center. He is probably closer to players like Bergeron, Barkov, and Couturier. The latter two had breakout seasons after signing their contracts, so that's not exactly a fair comparison (though I would love if Point would sign one of those two contracts), but Bergeron was established when he signed. Bergeron is a bit better defensively and a bit worse offensively, I would say, than Point, but I could see him being a close comparable overall. Adjusted for today's cap, that would be a cap hit of $8.7m. So I guess it's not that different from Draisatl, but still. My prediction is that he gets bridged below $8m, but for eight years, $9m is a pretty decent estimate. But we would have to make some moves to get that cap space and it would make it even harder when Cirelli, Sergachev, Cernak, and Joseph need raises and Vasilevskiy's new contract starts.

Laine will definitely get more (probably around $7m, even on a bridge deal). And I would be very surprised to see Rantanen that low, especially since the Avalanche can't argue that they need him to sign a cheap contract for cap reasons. MacKinnon signed before his breakout season, so I don't know to what extent he's a valid comparable. Blake Wheeler was also 32 when he signed his contract, so the possibility of regression might have factored into those negotiations. I think Jamie Benn is a better comparable for Marner and Rantanen, and that adjusts to $10.6m. That will be balanced by the pressure created by Kucherov's discount and probably equate to about $9.75m-$10m. Anything between $9m and $10.5m is fair value for either of them, really.
Aug. 19, 2019 at 1:18 a.m.
#11
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I'd like @Jamiepo, @TanSor, @swinny, @OldNYIfan, @Jangle29 to weigh in on where the league/PA are headed as far as highly talented RFA's possibly getting gigantic contracts vs the older PA members maybe fighting against this.

Do you guys think the NHLPA has changed enough in the last ten years or so that the way contracts are weighted changes to the younger player?
Aug. 19, 2019 at 9:07 a.m.
#12
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One thing you are forgetting is that while yes, teams use comparables, the contracts for a team's RFA's are almost always based off of the percentage of the cap space that the comparable player's deal took up at the time of the signing. So for example, Pastrnak signed his deal in 17/18 and the cap space that year was $75M, so Pastrnak's cap hit of $6,666,666 was 8.89% of the cap. So if you use that as a comparable for Boeser or Connor, their deals would have a $7,244,443.72 cap hit, not a $6.5M like you projected.

Quoting: oneX
I'd like @Jamiepo, @TanSor, @swinny, @OldNYIfan, @Jangle29 to weigh in on where the league/PA are headed as far as highly talented RFA's possibly getting gigantic contracts vs the older PA members maybe fighting against this.

Do you guys think the NHLPA has changed enough in the last ten years or so that the way contracts are weighted changes to the younger player?


This is a good lead-in to what I was about to say next: it seems like there is going to be a major shift in the market for RFA players. Previously, RFA players didn't really get monster contracts since they didn't have much leverage unless they were a near-generational talent (like McDavid or even Eichel). Last year we saw Nylander hold out and get a pretty large deal. Had he signed his deal prior to the season starting, his cap hit would have been $7.5M compared to the $6.9M that it is. This year, I think Marner will be similar, but I would not be surprised to see his deal surpass $11M even though I don't think he's worth more than $9.5M. That type of deal is going to set the market for guys like Point, Rantanen, Tkachuk, Boeser, Laine, and Connor since they can now use that massive number as a comparable.
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Aug. 19, 2019 at 10:12 a.m.
#13
Formerly Jamiepo
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Quoting: oneX
I'd like @Jamiepo, @TanSor, @swinny, @OldNYIfan, @Jangle29 to weigh in on where the league/PA are headed as far as highly talented RFA's possibly getting gigantic contracts vs the older PA members maybe fighting against this.

Do you guys think the NHLPA has changed enough in the last ten years or so that the way contracts are weighted changes to the younger player?


I think that time is here right now. There has been a ton of talent flooding into the nhl. Great centres like Mcdavid, Eichel and Matthews taking large sharers. Aho needing an offersheet to get into the range he wanted and now every other big RFA still unsigned in the last half of August. To me the bridge deal seems to be getting blown up. A lot of high end rfa’s don’t seem like they will be willing to take the 4-5m bridge deals. Marner’s camp actually asking for 10m on a 3 year deal. Things will change when the cba expires. I see a long lockout heading our way.
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Aug. 19, 2019 at 12:03 p.m.
#14
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Quoting: oneX
I'd like @Jamiepo, @TanSor, @swinny, @OldNYIfan, @Jangle29 to weigh in on where the league/PA are headed as far as highly talented RFA's possibly getting gigantic contracts vs the older PA members maybe fighting against this.

Do you guys think the NHLPA has changed enough in the last ten years or so that the way contracts are weighted changes to the younger player?


Oh boy. Where to begin......

For starters, this mive with prominent RFAs has a coorelation to the erosion (or we could say eridication) of the NHL middle class - a direct result of the current CBA. Most saw it coming. There maybe a hamdful of players that seem to fall into this category still, but more and more, 3rd and 4th line guys are $2 million and under, leaving a large piece of the pie to the top two lines. What I find absolutely wild about this is that this pattern has not translated to elite blueliners to any where near the extent we see with forwards. Dougherty, EK67 and Subban are premium dollar. But when Trouba nets $7 million per on a long term deal it is clear where GMs place value...... play defense, the middle class is alive and well. Forward? It's a case of the haves and have nots. So I am going to argue that this positional inequality is NHLPA internal fight #1.

Since the McDavid contract, we have in fact seen second contracts go through the roof. Here is the thing though. Those early deals (McJesus, Draistl, Eichel, I will throw in Tarasenko) were all 8 year terms. So McJesus goes UFA at 29. Step back a second. Will McJesus max out on that UFA deal? Assuming he sees 8 years that's unlikely. Anyone wanna pay him $14 million+ at age 37?? So realistically, this deal becomes a shorter term. Then how many productive years are left before he falls off the map? Let's say 4 (33 most can agree would be the end of prime years in most cases unless you're Willimas!)...... and in thinking that leading to age 33 it is more likely to see a decrease in production, he most likely doesn't max out. (Note: it's McJesus I know, but feel free to insert any UFA here). So the arguement is thise 2nd contracts that are 8 years ARE in all likelihood, the payday contracts for these guys. As such I am ok with this money and term.

Fast foward to last year, where Matthews signed a 5 year extention for $11 million. That's right. 5 not 8. Why? Because the guy goes UFA at 26 - meaning that last contract there will be a push for full term. And because he has yet to reach prime, it will be top dollar. 8 years takes him to 34..... which most GMs would be crazy enough to take on I argue. It's a brilliant play for the agent and player. Owners simply lacked the foresight to see this coming full scale.

Which brings us to this year. Pick you RFA. Doesn't matter. All seem to want shorter term and more money. It's a page out of the NBA really. Only now owners have dialed in, and are simply not blinking. The Marners, Rattanen's, Tkachuk's, Laine's, Connor's and Boeser's of the world are worth something for sure. And I am of the opinion that if the Marner camp said 8 years at $10.5 million, this just might catch Dubas' attention. But 3 at 10 is now a non-starter because it's the same song and dance 3 years from now with the player having the leverage. All of it too. Honestly, this is the biggest political play by owners (GMs) since the lockout. It needs to happen. I support it. None of these guys have the experience or track record in the league to come close to 7 figures. Few at this stage of their career do. And hence the stand off.

Will this cause a lockout? I doubt it. Why? Let's assume these RFAs all get what they want. What happens 3-5 to 5 years from now when the next group of super RFA comes along (Ryan Poehling? The Hughes Bros.?) News flash: financially you will be squeezed out. Because right now, at this moment, you set the precident. ????. The money will go to the youngest talent possible. You will no longer get to argue experience, or track record. That's done. So this will be NHLPA internal fight #2.

If anything is clear, this CBA is flawed. But not so much for owners. You will pay for exerience or youth, you are sepnding the same amount. But it is these young players that have changed the NHL into a 20 something league that will pay the price. Karma is a ****.

Sadly, no one learned from Strombone1..... "my contract sucks". The NHLPA has failed it membership imo. I suspect they will be the ones seeking a change. ELC's remain the same, where a set % of cap will be set aside for secondary deals, then the rest for UFA deals..... or something to that effect. The current standoff may maximize what they make now. It does not maximize what they make over a career. This will become clear over time.
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