Forums/Armchair-GM

Edmonton getting good

Created by: Couture39
Initial Creation Date: Aug 21, 2019
Published: Aug 21, 2019 at 2:38 am
Team: 2019-20 Edmonton Oilers
Free Agent Signings
RESERVE LISTYEARSCAP HIT
Lavoie, Raphael3$925,000
Hawkey, Hayden1$925,000
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
Puljujärvi, Jesse1$1,000,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
Brassard, Derick1$1,000,000
Trades
EDM
  1. Faulk, Justin ($600,000 retained)
CAR
  1. Bear, Ethan
  2. Hawkey, Hayden
  3. 2021 2nd round pick (EDM)
EDM
    OTT Claims on waivers
    OTT
    1. Brodziak, Kyle
    EDM
      TOR Claims on waivers
      TOR
      1. Persson, Joel
      EDM
      1. 2022 4th round pick (LAK)
      LAK
      1. Puljujärvi, Jesse
      Buyouts
      • Andrej Sekera: $2,500,000
      • Benoit Pouliot: $1,333,333
      • Eric Gryba: $300,000
      Retained Salary Transactions
      • Milan Lucic: $750,000 (13%)
      Buried
      • Brandon Manning: $1,175,000 ($2,250,000)
      DRAFT YEARROUND 1ROUND 2ROUND 3ROUND 4ROUND 5ROUND 6ROUND 7
      2020
      EDM
      EDM
      EDM
      EDM
      EDM
      EDM
      2021
      EDM
      EDM
      EDM
      EDM
      EDM
      PIT
      EDM
      2022
      EDM
      EDM
      EDM
      EDM
      LAK
      EDM
      EDM
      EDM
      ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES BONUSESCAP SPACE
      21$81,500,000$79,716,999$0$1,750,000$1,783,001
      Left WingCenterRight Wing
      EDM
      Draisaitl, Leon
      $8,500,000
      C, LW, RW
      UFA - 6
      EDM
      McDavid, Connor
      $12,500,000
      C
      UFA - 7
      EDM
      Chiasson, Alex
      $2,150,000
      RW
      UFA - 2
      EDM
      Neal, James
      $5,750,000
      RW, LW
      UFA - 4
      EDM
      Nugent-Hopkins, Ryan
      $6,000,000
      C, LW
      UFA - 2
      EDM
      Kassian, Zack
      $1,950,000
      RW
      UFA - 1
      EDM
      Granlund, Markus
      $1,300,000
      RW, LW, C
      UFA - 1
      Brassard, Derick
      $1,000,000
      C
      UFA - 1
      EDM
      Archibald, Josh
      $1,000,000
      RW
      UFA - 1
      EDM
      Nygård, Joakim
      $925,000
      LW
      UFA - 1
      EDM
      Gagner, Sam
      $3,150,000
      C, RW
      UFA - 1
      EDM
      Khaira, Jujhar
      $1,200,000
      C, LW
      RFA - 2
      Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
      EDM
      Klefbom, Oscar
      $4,167,000
      LD
      UFA - 4
      CAR
      Faulk, Justin
      $3,550,000
      RD
      NTC
      UFA - 1
      EDM
      Koskinen, Mikko
      $4,500,000
      G
      NTC
      UFA - 3
      EDM
      Nurse, Darnell
      $3,200,000
      LD
      RFA - 1
      EDM
      Larsson, Adam
      $4,166,666
      RD
      UFA - 2
      EDM
      Smith, Mike
      $2,000,000
      G
      NTC
      UFA - 1
      EDM
      Russell, Kris
      $4,000,000
      RD
      NMC NTC
      UFA - 2
      EDM
      Benning, Matthew
      $1,900,000
      RD
      RFA - 1
      ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
      EDM
      Jurco, Tomas
      $750,000
      RW, LW
      UFA - 1

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      Aug 21, 2019 at 5:10
      #1
      MK458
      Joined: Dec 2017
      Posts: 1,303
      Likes: 453
      Would much rather keep Persson than Benning. Persson deserves a chance, he could be good. We already know how bad Matt Benning is...
      Aug 21, 2019 at 5:28
      #2
      Thread Starter
      Gusev's Pornhub
      Joined: Jan 2019
      Posts: 256
      Likes: 32
      Quoting: mk458
      Would much rather keep Persson than Benning. Persson deserves a chance, he could be good. We already know how bad Matt Benning is...


      yea, he could be good. I tried to keep it as realistic as possible with the trades and signings. IMO Benning isnt as bad as you guys think he is, i mean somehow he lead the Oilers in +/-.
      Aug 21, 2019 at 6:58
      #3
      KOG
      Joined: Apr 2018
      Posts: 684
      Likes: 147
      r/brandnewsentence
      Couture39 liked this.
      Aug 21, 2019 at 7:01
      #4
      oilsince95
      Joined: Jun 2016
      Posts: 648
      Likes: 128
      According to Capfriendly at least, Persson is actually on an ELC so he is waivers exempt.
      CD282 liked this.
      Aug 21, 2019 at 8:45
      #5
      Melnyk_0ut
      Joined: Jul 2019
      Posts: 257
      Likes: 66
      why in the world would Ottawa claim Kyle Brodziak on waivers (or anyone for that matter)
      Aug 21, 2019 at 11:42
      #6
      Joined: Mar 2017
      Posts: 6,730
      Likes: 1,508
      Quoting: mk458
      Would much rather keep Persson than Benning. Persson deserves a chance, he could be good. We already know how bad Matt Benning is...


      I don't really know where to start on this, but I'll just share a few facts and leave opinions out of it.

      Over the past 3 seasons combined, 5v5 stats:

      Goals/60: 0.22 (2nd among Oilers defensemen / 61st in the league)
      Assists/60: 0.59 (2nd / 105th)
      Points/60: 0.81 (2nd / 90th)
      CF%: 50.59 (2nd, +1.50 relative to teammates)
      FF%: 50.37 (2nd, +0.76)
      SF%: 50.46 (2nd, +1.58)
      GF%: 54.44 (1st, +6.78)
      xGF%: 50.96 (2nd, +1.90)
      SCF%: 50.46 (1st, +1.65)
      HDCF%: 49.58 (3rd, +1.75)
      EV_GAR: 16.3 (1st)
      GAR: 22.0 (1st)
      WAR: 4.0 (1st)

      Most people look at these numbers and proclaim it's because Benning gets easier minutes in the 3rd pairing, and he certainly does play on the 3rd pairing much of the time - but not always. In the past 3 years he has played 1250 minutes in the top-4 and his numbers shine. Here's how I separated his top-4 results from his bottom pairing results.

      To start with I used a proxy for “top-4” each year going back to 2016-17, based on TOI v Elites taken from puckiq.com, as follows:

      2016-17: Sekera (35.5%), Klefbom (34.6)
      2017-18: Nurse (34.9), Klefbom (32.3)
      2018-19: Klefbom (35.1), Nurse (33.8)

      Next I went to naturalstattrick.com and, using their “Teammates” tool, filtered all the stats for each year for the TOI Benning spent with each player listed above. I realize there were times when Russell-Benning were the 2nd pairing, but there may have been games that they were 3rd pairing too and I didn’t want to confuse the numbers with 3rd pairing data. Then too, who you play with is as important as who you play against, so showing those games where Russell-Benning played 2nd pairing probably doesn’t give us much information about potential combos this coming season, unless the injury bug strikes down 2-3 of the top-5 guys. For reference though, Russell-Benning were together just 21:04 in 2018-19 and outscored the competition 2-1. Negligible.

      So I built an excel spreadsheet combining all the figures for Benning’s ice-time with the top two LHD for each season and the results were interesting to say the least. For the 3 years combined, 5v5 minutes in the top-4 only:

      TOI: 1250:19
      CF%: 52.79
      FF%: 53.00
      SF%: 53.17
      GF%: 55.65

      xGF%: 53.71
      SCF%: 52.75
      SCGF%: 56.99
      HDCF%: 52.69
      HDGF%: 56.72

      Sh%: 9.51
      Sv%: 91.75
      PDO: 1.013

      Again, this is just the time he spent in the top-4, these numbers don’t include any bottom-pairing play at all. This looks like a decent top-4 blueliner from here. Is it the McDavid push? Let’s look at the numbers with and without McDavid, filtered by the aforementioned top two LHD:

      With McDavid

      TOI: 420:30
      CF%: 55.19
      FF%: 56.65
      SF%: 56.14
      GF%: 62.96

      xGF%: 56.10
      SCF%: 55.27
      HDCF%: 55.10
      HDGF%: 59.38

      Sh%: 14.05
      Sv%: 90.73
      PDO: 1.048

      Without McDavid:

      TOI: 829:47
      CF%: 51.39
      FF%: 50.88
      SF%: 51.49
      GF%: 49.18

      xGF%: 52.06
      SCF%: 50.97
      HDCF%: 50.80
      HDGF%: 54.29

      Sh%: 8.20
      Sv%: 94.67
      PDO: 1.029

      The truth is that Benning, even when playing top-4 minutes, isn’t getting a ton of “McDavid time”, just 33.6% of his TOI was spent with the world’s best center. Of course his numbers in those minutes are better, but he performed quite well even without the CMD push.

      And then there’s this: Benning personally posted amazing boxcars during these minutes. His .912 points/60 puts him tied for 58th best defenseman in the NHL over the past 3 years, while his .29 goals/60 puts him in a 5 way tie for 24th, with Jones, Ekblad, Markov and our own Darnell Nurse. (I can’t believe so many Oilers fans are calling for these two to be traded). These are phenomenal numbers.

      The list of marquee players that couldn’t match Benning’s .912 p/60 over the past 3 years is long, including Slavin, Petry, Morrissey, Ekholm, Heiskanen, Gostisbehere, Miller, Pesce, Ekman-Larsson, Parayko, Ekblad, Brodin, Doughty, Lindholm, Fowler, Ristolainen, Klefbom, Hamonic and Vatanen.

      Now, I’m not suggesting that Matt Benning is a top-pairing guy or even a sure-fire top 4. I do know for sure that he’s played a reasonable amount of top-4 minutes over the past 3 years and has won those minutes even playing behind a piss-poor forward group. NONE of the other top blueliners can touch Benning’s GF% without McDavid, and it isn’t close:

      Benning: 49.18 (while in the top-4 only)
      Nurse: 44.51
      Russell: 43.87
      Larsson: 43.68
      Klefbom: 40.27
      Sekera: 40.00 (includes bottom-pairing time)

      For reference, Benning’s overall GF% without McDavid (just so we’re comparing apples-to-apples) is 51.45%.
      Aug 21, 2019 at 2:34
      #7
      MK458
      Joined: Dec 2017
      Posts: 1,303
      Likes: 453
      Quoting: CD282
      I don't really know where to start on this, but I'll just share a few facts and leave opinions out of it.

      Over the past 3 seasons combined, 5v5 stats:

      Goals/60: 0.22 (2nd among Oilers defensemen / 61st in the league)
      Assists/60: 0.59 (2nd / 105th)
      Points/60: 0.81 (2nd / 90th)
      CF%: 50.59 (2nd, +1.50 relative to teammates)
      FF%: 50.37 (2nd, +0.76)
      SF%: 50.46 (2nd, +1.58)
      GF%: 54.44 (1st, +6.78)
      xGF%: 50.96 (2nd, +1.90)
      SCF%: 50.46 (1st, +1.65)
      HDCF%: 49.58 (3rd, +1.75)
      EV_GAR: 16.3 (1st)
      GAR: 22.0 (1st)
      WAR: 4.0 (1st)

      Most people look at these numbers and proclaim it's because Benning gets easier minutes in the 3rd pairing, and he certainly does play on the 3rd pairing much of the time - but not always. In the past 3 years he has played 1250 minutes in the top-4 and his numbers shine. Here's how I separated his top-4 results from his bottom pairing results.

      To start with I used a proxy for “top-4” each year going back to 2016-17, based on TOI v Elites taken from puckiq.com, as follows:

      2016-17: Sekera (35.5%), Klefbom (34.6)
      2017-18: Nurse (34.9), Klefbom (32.3)
      2018-19: Klefbom (35.1), Nurse (33.8)

      Next I went to naturalstattrick.com and, using their “Teammates” tool, filtered all the stats for each year for the TOI Benning spent with each player listed above. I realize there were times when Russell-Benning were the 2nd pairing, but there may have been games that they were 3rd pairing too and I didn’t want to confuse the numbers with 3rd pairing data. Then too, who you play with is as important as who you play against, so showing those games where Russell-Benning played 2nd pairing probably doesn’t give us much information about potential combos this coming season, unless the injury bug strikes down 2-3 of the top-5 guys. For reference though, Russell-Benning were together just 21:04 in 2018-19 and outscored the competition 2-1. Negligible.

      So I built an excel spreadsheet combining all the figures for Benning’s ice-time with the top two LHD for each season and the results were interesting to say the least. For the 3 years combined, 5v5 minutes in the top-4 only:

      TOI: 1250:19
      CF%: 52.79
      FF%: 53.00
      SF%: 53.17
      GF%: 55.65

      xGF%: 53.71
      SCF%: 52.75
      SCGF%: 56.99
      HDCF%: 52.69
      HDGF%: 56.72

      Sh%: 9.51
      Sv%: 91.75
      PDO: 1.013

      Again, this is just the time he spent in the top-4, these numbers don’t include any bottom-pairing play at all. This looks like a decent top-4 blueliner from here. Is it the McDavid push? Let’s look at the numbers with and without McDavid, filtered by the aforementioned top two LHD:

      With McDavid

      TOI: 420:30
      CF%: 55.19
      FF%: 56.65
      SF%: 56.14
      GF%: 62.96

      xGF%: 56.10
      SCF%: 55.27
      HDCF%: 55.10
      HDGF%: 59.38

      Sh%: 14.05
      Sv%: 90.73
      PDO: 1.048

      Without McDavid:

      TOI: 829:47
      CF%: 51.39
      FF%: 50.88
      SF%: 51.49
      GF%: 49.18

      xGF%: 52.06
      SCF%: 50.97
      HDCF%: 50.80
      HDGF%: 54.29

      Sh%: 8.20
      Sv%: 94.67
      PDO: 1.029

      The truth is that Benning, even when playing top-4 minutes, isn’t getting a ton of “McDavid time”, just 33.6% of his TOI was spent with the world’s best center. Of course his numbers in those minutes are better, but he performed quite well even without the CMD push.

      And then there’s this: Benning personally posted amazing boxcars during these minutes. His .912 points/60 puts him tied for 58th best defenseman in the NHL over the past 3 years, while his .29 goals/60 puts him in a 5 way tie for 24th, with Jones, Ekblad, Markov and our own Darnell Nurse. (I can’t believe so many Oilers fans are calling for these two to be traded). These are phenomenal numbers.

      The list of marquee players that couldn’t match Benning’s .912 p/60 over the past 3 years is long, including Slavin, Petry, Morrissey, Ekholm, Heiskanen, Gostisbehere, Miller, Pesce, Ekman-Larsson, Parayko, Ekblad, Brodin, Doughty, Lindholm, Fowler, Ristolainen, Klefbom, Hamonic and Vatanen.

      Now, I’m not suggesting that Matt Benning is a top-pairing guy or even a sure-fire top 4. I do know for sure that he’s played a reasonable amount of top-4 minutes over the past 3 years and has won those minutes even playing behind a piss-poor forward group. NONE of the other top blueliners can touch Benning’s GF% without McDavid, and it isn’t close:

      Benning: 49.18 (while in the top-4 only)
      Nurse: 44.51
      Russell: 43.87
      Larsson: 43.68
      Klefbom: 40.27
      Sekera: 40.00 (includes bottom-pairing time)

      For reference, Benning’s overall GF% without McDavid (just so we’re comparing apples-to-apples) is 51.45%.


      I know you're probably right, and I know the stats tell the truth. But mannnnnnnn, I went to 25 Oilers games last season and I watched almost all the rest of them on TV. He just makes bad mistakes when he makes them. He looks like he doesn't belong. Is there a stat that shows how many times a player has dropped his stick? And how many times a goal is scored when he drops his stick? I swear Matt Benning must lead the NHL in dropped sticks. I know the stats say otherwise, and I don't expect to convince you that he's as bad as many fans say he is. But just from watching him so often I don't think I'd miss him if he got traded
       
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