SalarySwishSalarySwish
Forums/Armchair-GM

Bergevins playbook on crack

Created by: Fleurdelille
Team: 2020-21 Edmonton Oilers
Initial Creation Date: Aug. 21, 2019
Published: Aug. 22, 2019
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
Chicago has Debrincat, Strome, Gustafsson and Lehner (or equivilent) to resign. Even with Crawford off the books they seem vulnerable to an offer sheet. Obviously they would be forced to match this but lets say they dont.
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
5$8,454,871
1$1,200,000
1$900,000
2$2,100,000
6$6,000,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
1$1,000,000
Offer Sheets
Offer sheet annual average (AAV) is calculated by dividing the contract value by the lower of: 1. The contract length, or 2. Five years
PLAYERAAVCOMPENSATION
DeBrincat, Alex$8,454,871
2020 1st round pick
2020 2nd round pick
2020 3rd round pick
Trades
1.
2.
3.
PHI
  1. Nugent-Hopkins, Ryan
Additional Details:
PHI MTL trade Drouin, Juulsen for RNH
Buyouts
Retained Salary Transactions
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2020
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
2021
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the PIT
Logo of the EDM
2022
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
21$83,500,000$82,764,737$341,534$657,500$735,263
Left WingCentreRight Wing
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$808,333$808,333
LW, RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$12,500,000$12,500,000
C
UFA - 6
$8,454,871$8,454,871
LW, RW
UFA - 3
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$6,000,000$6,000,000
RW, LW
UFA - 5
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$8,500,000$8,500,000
C, LW
UFA - 5
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$5,750,000$5,750,000
RW, LW
UFA - 3
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$1,200,000$1,200,000
LW, C
UFA - 1
Logo of the Minnesota Wild
$1,487,500$1,487,500
C
UFA - 1
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$75,000$75K)
C, RW
UFA - 1
$1,000,000$1,000,000
LW, C
UFA
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$834,167$834,167 (Performance Bonus$82,500$82K)
C
RFA - 2
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$2,150,000$2,150,000
RW
UFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$6,000,000$6,000,000
LD
UFA - 2
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$863,333$863,333 (Performance Bonus$500,000$500K)
RD
RFA - 3
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$4,500,000$4,500,000
G
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Philadelphia Flyers
$4,500,000$4,500,000
LD/RD
UFA - 3
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$4,166,666$4,166,666
RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$1,200,000$1,200,000
LD/RD
UFA - 2
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$2,100,000$2,100,000
RD
UFA - 2
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$900,000$900,000
G
UFA
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$4,000,000$4,000,000
LD/RD
M-NTC, NMC
UFA - 1

Embed Code

  • To display this team on another website or blog, add this iFrame to the appropriate page
  • Customize the height attribute in the iFrame code below to fit your website appropriately. Minimum recommended: 400px.

Text-Embed

Click to Highlight
Aug. 22, 2019 at 3:23 p.m.
#1
Avatar of the user
Joined: Jun. 2015
Posts: 1,759
Likes: 801
"LOL" - Stan
newmy liked this.
Aug. 22, 2019 at 3:36 p.m.
#2
Formerly Jamiepo
Avatar of the user
Joined: Jul. 2018
Posts: 21,155
Likes: 10,700
Din’t Think Chicago matches because debrincat never signs it.
newmy liked this.
Aug. 22, 2019 at 3:56 p.m.
#3
Avatar of the user
Joined: Apr. 2018
Posts: 1,616
Likes: 748
Quoting: Jamiepo
Din’t Think Chicago matches because debrincat never signs it.


He was McDavids team mate in junior where he had huge success so if there is one team he might entertain an offer sheet from it may be the Oilers
CD282 liked this.
Aug. 22, 2019 at 4:40 p.m.
#4
Gusev's Pornhub
Avatar of the user
Joined: Jan. 2019
Posts: 256
Likes: 32
welp
Aug. 22, 2019 at 4:58 p.m.
#5
Avatar of the user
Joined: Mar. 2017
Posts: 23,753
Likes: 7,634
You're trades aren't great from an Oilers standpoint:

- Klefbom is at least as valuable as Ehlers, if anything it's WPG that adds slightly
- RNH is worth more that Gostisbehere, PHI would need to add

The end result is a worse team: RNH > Ehlers, Klefbom >> Gostisbehere.
Aug. 22, 2019 at 5:06 p.m.
#6
Formerly Jamiepo
Avatar of the user
Joined: Jul. 2018
Posts: 21,155
Likes: 10,700
Quoting: Smokingun71
He was McDavids team mate in junior where he had huge success so if there is one team he might entertain an offer sheet from it may be the Oilers


The contract you’re offering is too low. After inflation and this year’s group of RFA’s your deal is fair, not an overpay.
Aug. 22, 2019 at 5:29 p.m.
#7
Thread Starter
Fleurdelille
Avatar of the user
Joined: Jun. 2016
Posts: 292
Likes: 54
Edited Aug. 22, 2019 at 5:40 p.m.
Quoting: CD282
You're trades aren't great from an Oilers standpoint:

- Klefbom is at least as valuable as Ehlers, if anything it's WPG that adds slightly
- RNH is worth more that Gostisbehere, PHI would need to add

The end result is a worse team: RNH > Ehlers, Klefbom >> Gostisbehere.


RNH has 1 year left on contract at the time, Ghost has 3. What you are saying is true this season but only because RNH had a career year and Ghost had an off year. Ghost had 65 points the year before that. RNH does not have more value, certainly not on an expiring contract anyway.

Ehlers has more term, Klefbom is injury prone. Pretty sure WPG declines 1for1 straight up
jpsnow13 liked this.
Aug. 22, 2019 at 5:32 p.m.
#8
Thread Starter
Fleurdelille
Avatar of the user
Joined: Jun. 2016
Posts: 292
Likes: 54
Quoting: Jamiepo
The contract you’re offering is too low. After inflation and this year’s group of RFA’s your deal is fair, not an overpay.


For Hawks to keep all players needing contract they are gonna have to find moves though. Not enough cap to cover all at this point.

I do agree its not high enough, Hawks would match, but I could see Oilers being willing to pay another 1st and make the offer more uncomfortable.
Aug. 22, 2019 at 5:42 p.m.
#9
Avatar of the user
Joined: Mar. 2017
Posts: 23,753
Likes: 7,634
Quoting: Fleurdelille
RNH has 1 year left on contract at the time, Ghost has 3. What you are saying is true this season but only because RNH had a career year and Ghost had an off year.

Ehlers has more term, Klefbom is injury prone. Pretty sure WPG declines 1for1 straight up


Ghost cannot defend and will always be worth less than a complete player. He can get points but mostly on the power play. He plays 3rd pair in PHI and scores at a similar rate to Matthew Benning.

MEH.
Aug. 22, 2019 at 5:54 p.m.
#10
Thread Starter
Fleurdelille
Avatar of the user
Joined: Jun. 2016
Posts: 292
Likes: 54
Edited Aug. 22, 2019 at 6:02 p.m.
Quoting: CD282
Ghost cannot defend and will always be worth less than a complete player. He can get points but mostly on the power play. He plays 3rd pair in PHI and scores at a similar rate to Matthew Benning.

MEH.

That one dimension is really great though, when it's clicking.

5V5P/60. Who do you think is Klefbom and who do you think is Ghost below?
0.85 1.2
0.85 0.49
0.59 1.06
0.64 0.91

To say he can only produce at PP is incorrect.

This was Ghost for RNH though. Is this year an Outlier for RNH? He has 1 60 point season in 9 years, despite playing with the likes of Hall and Eberle. The narrative is that he's good defensively but if you look at Oilers PK this year he has terrible numbers (suggesting he is actually making the PK worse). He's not spectacular at the dot.

I love RNH but I think you are being biased.

*edit* to add to that, the suggestion is mostly about not having to commit to RNH's salary raise while Oilers don't have the depth to be truly competitive. By the time Oilers can truly be in discussion playoff success, RNH's best years will be gone

I think Oilers will need to commit to Draisaitl as 2C. RNH may not be a good enough 2C to win the cup in the latter half of his contract.
Aug. 22, 2019 at 10:52 p.m.
#11
You know nothing JS
Avatar of the user
Joined: Jan. 2017
Posts: 6,997
Likes: 4,395
Quoting: CD282
You're trades aren't great from an Oilers standpoint:

- Klefbom is at least as valuable as Ehlers, if anything it's WPG that adds slightly
- RNH is worth more that Gostisbehere, PHI would need to add

The end result is a worse team: RNH > Ehlers, Klefbom >> Gostisbehere.


This is delusional.
Aug. 23, 2019 at 6:21 a.m.
#12
Avatar of the user
Joined: Mar. 2017
Posts: 23,753
Likes: 7,634
Quoting: jpsnow13
This is delusional.


Prove it.
Aug. 23, 2019 at 6:49 a.m.
#13
Avatar of the user
Joined: Mar. 2017
Posts: 23,753
Likes: 7,634
Quoting: Fleurdelille
That one dimension is really great though, when it's clicking.

5V5P/60. Who do you think is Klefbom and who do you think is Ghost below?
0.85 1.2
0.85 0.49
0.59 1.06
0.64 0.91

To say he can only produce at PP is incorrect.

This was Ghost for RNH though. Is this year an Outlier for RNH? He has 1 60 point season in 9 years, despite playing with the likes of Hall and Eberle. The narrative is that he's good defensively but if you look at Oilers PK this year he has terrible numbers (suggesting he is actually making the PK worse). He's not spectacular at the dot.

I love RNH but I think you are being biased.

*edit* to add to that, the suggestion is mostly about not having to commit to RNH's salary raise while Oilers don't have the depth to be truly competitive. By the time Oilers can truly be in discussion playoff success, RNH's best years will be gone

I think Oilers will need to commit to Draisaitl as 2C. RNH may not be a good enough 2C to win the cup in the latter half of his contract.


Comparing Gostisbehere to Klefbom without taking into account the fact that Klefbom plays 1st pair competition while Ghost plays 3rd pair is always going to give you a false impression, which is why I compared his scoring to that of Matt Benning.

Is this an outlier year for RNH? He has averaged 58 points per 82 games throughout his career. If you look at his "5v5 P/60" scoring rates you'll see that 2018-19 was his 4th best year out of 8. So essentially, career average scoring. His TOI was up by almost 2 minutes per game and he played all 82 - that's where the increase came from.

EW's valuation chart shows RNH to be worth $7,916,808 on an 8 year deal. Gostisbehere is worth $6,128,899 at 8 years, although EW projects that he's unlikely to receive an 8-year deal, showing him at $5,718,637 x 6 instead. That's nearly a $2M loss in value.

Ehlers and Klefbom have very close actual value, with Klefbom holding the edge in 7 of the 8 years. For instance, Ehlers' current value is listed as $5,766,240 x 4, whereas Klefbom is listed as having $5,821,558 over the same term.

So you can see how you've traded away value here.

- You've essentially traded a very good 2C and replaced him with a very good 2LW which is a positional loss in value - RNH can play 2LW just as well as Ehlers can but he can also play C, something that Ehlers cannot do. Also, you're losing something on the defensive side of the puck at 5v5.
- You also moved the team's 1LD and replaced him with a 3LD / PP specialist - right at the time that Bouchard is coming in to run the PP. Gostisbehere makes more money than Klefbom and isn't nearly as good, and his PP acumen won't be put to full use on this team anyhow. That's a SERIOUS downgrade defensively.
Aug. 23, 2019 at 11:40 a.m.
#14
You know nothing JS
Avatar of the user
Joined: Jan. 2017
Posts: 6,997
Likes: 4,395
Quoting: CD282
Prove it.


I don't want to waste time on this.

Let just say that even if NH and Klefbom were as good as you think, wich they obviously the are not, young players with long term contrats are way more valuable than older guys soon to be UFA, all talent beeing equal.
Aug. 23, 2019 at 12:02 p.m.
#15
Avatar of the user
Joined: Mar. 2017
Posts: 23,753
Likes: 7,634
Quoting: jpsnow13
I don't want to waste time on this.

Let just say that even if NH and Klefbom were as good as you think, wich they obviously the are not, young players with long term contrats are way more valuable than older guys soon to be UFA, all talent beeing equal.


Klefbom is younger than Gostisbehere.
Aug. 24, 2019 at 1:35 a.m.
#16
Thread Starter
Fleurdelille
Avatar of the user
Joined: Jun. 2016
Posts: 292
Likes: 54
Edited Aug. 24, 2019 at 1:47 a.m.
Quoting: CD282
Comparing Gostisbehere to Klefbom without taking into account the fact that Klefbom plays 1st pair competition while Ghost plays 3rd pair is always going to give you a false impression, which is why I compared his scoring to that of Matt Benning.

Is this an outlier year for RNH? He has averaged 58 points per 82 games throughout his career. If you look at his "5v5 P/60" scoring rates you'll see that 2018-19 was his 4th best year out of 8. So essentially, career average scoring. His TOI was up by almost 2 minutes per game and he played all 82 - that's where the increase came from.

EW's valuation chart shows RNH to be worth $7,916,808 on an 8 year deal. Gostisbehere is worth $6,128,899 at 8 years, although EW projects that he's unlikely to receive an 8-year deal, showing him at $5,718,637 x 6 instead. That's nearly a $2M loss in value.

Ehlers and Klefbom have very close actual value, with Klefbom holding the edge in 7 of the 8 years. For instance, Ehlers' current value is listed as $5,766,240 x 4, whereas Klefbom is listed as having $5,821,558 over the same term.

So you can see how you've traded away value here.

- You've essentially traded a very good 2C and replaced him with a very good 2LW which is a positional loss in value - RNH can play 2LW just as well as Ehlers can but he can also play C, something that Ehlers cannot do. Also, you're losing something on the defensive side of the puck at 5v5.
- You also moved the team's 1LD and replaced him with a 3LD / PP specialist - right at the time that Bouchard is coming in to run the PP. Gostisbehere makes more money than Klefbom and isn't nearly as good, and his PP acumen won't be put to full use on this team anyhow. That's a SERIOUS downgrade defensively.


You gotta ask yourself if RNH really is the guy we want to be overplaying? I'd much rather see Draisaitl and McDavid be our Crosby and Malkin.

If you are asking rookies to come in and be the #1 PP guy off the bat I think you are asking too much. Isn't this a problem Oilers has had historically for how many years? Look to TBL's usage of Sergachev instead. Thats what believe serves Bouchard best.

You are the one wanting to talk about 5v5 production, you're the one talking smack about how Ghost can get points but mostly on the powerplay, and that he produces at the same rate as Benning(not true). Don't dodge, why does your "1st pair" defenseman have egregious 5v5 production in comparison? The guy had worse production then Larsson. If you want an argument about it then give me some answers (don't actually).

The truth is we look to advanced stats for mathematical certainty, but really, advanced stats are only a part of the picture. NHL isn't MLB where it's batter against pitcher, although we tend to use advanced stats as if it was. Specific advanced stats says even less about a player, clearly, because Klefbom a better defender then that.

I think committing 8M for 8 years to RNH would be a massive error, which is the whole point of the trades. If anything, your obscure evaluation charts only helped put a number on it. I think if we can convert 1 RNH year to 4 cost controlled Ehlers years, we're in a much better position.
Aug. 26, 2019 at 10:06 a.m.
#17
Avatar of the user
Joined: Mar. 2017
Posts: 23,753
Likes: 7,634
Quoting: Fleurdelille
If you are asking rookies to come in and be the #1 PP guy off the bat I think you are asking too much. Isn't this a problem Oilers has had historically for how many years? Look to TBL's usage of Sergachev instead. Thats what believe serves Bouchard best.


Sergachev played a LOT of PP minutes in his rookie year, yet was the most sheltered defenseman in the league at 5v5. This is exactly the way I see Bouchard being handled. And the only reason Sergachev didn't play on the 1st PP unit much was because he's blocked by Hedman. Playing with your team's top skill and with a man advantage is the very easiest minutes you can give a young player.

Quoting: Fleurdelille
You are the one wanting to talk about 5v5 production, you're the one talking smack about how Ghost can get points but mostly on the powerplay, and that he produces at the same rate as Benning (not true). Don't dodge, why does your "1st pair" defenseman have egregious 5v5 production in comparison? The guy had worse production then Larsson. If you want an argument about it then give me some answers (don't actually).


I was comparing Gostisbehere to Benning rather than Klefbom because Klefbom plays the hardest competition, Ghost and Benning do not. Apples-to-oranges, get it? Gostisbehere's scoring rate for the past 3 seasons is 0.84 P/60 at 5v5. Matt Benning's scoring rate while playing similar comp is 0.91 P/60. Benning also won his minutes with a 55.65 GF%, while Gostisbehere lost his at 46.55%.

https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/233122

http://naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20162017&thruseason=20182019&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&stdoi=std&rate=y&team=PHI&pos=D&loc=B&toi=0&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410&lines=single&draftteam=ALL


Quoting: Fleurdelille
I think committing 8M for 8 years to RNH would be a massive error, which is the whole point of the trades. If anything, your obscure evaluation charts only helped put a number on it. I think if we can convert 1 RNH year to 4 cost controlled Ehlers years, we're in a much better position.


But you're not doing that - you're trading cost-controlled Klefbom + a good prospect for Ehlers. I don't have a problem targeting Ehlers, but (a) Klefbom+ is too much to pay, and (b) Ehlers isn't a replacement for RNH since he can't play center.
Aug. 26, 2019 at 3:54 p.m.
#18
Thread Starter
Fleurdelille
Avatar of the user
Joined: Jun. 2016
Posts: 292
Likes: 54
Quoting: CD282
Sergachev played a LOT of PP minutes in his rookie year, yet was the most sheltered defenseman in the league at 5v5. This is exactly the way I see Bouchard being handled. And the only reason Sergachev didn't play on the 1st PP unit much was because he's blocked by Hedman. Playing with your team's top skill and with a man advantage is the very easiest minutes you can give a young player.


I still dont think it's apples and apples when one guy plays 20% more than the other. How is he going to be as fresh every shift? We're talking average 4 more minutes per night.

And yes, over 3 years his stats looks worse, but it doesn't factor in that all of Philly has been statistically worse in those 2 years. The year prior to this comparison Ghost had 60% GF%. If you look at Philly over the time period you mention, every single D-man had better GF% with than without Ghost 5v5. For scoring rate his average drops because of a bad year at 0.49, but he has better scoring in 2/3, with a 1.2 in the year prior.

I will continue to claim that advanced stats does not show context. Pretty much every player had a 10% GF% increase playing with McDavid, and that's 30% of Bennings total icetime. Are those numbers Bennings?

I was comparing Gostisbehere to Benning rather than Klefbom because Klefbom plays the hardest competition, Ghost and Benning do not. Apples-to-oranges, get it? Gostisbehere's scoring rate for the past 3 seasons is 0.84 P/60 at 5v5. Matt Benning's scoring rate while playing similar comp is 0.91 P/60. Benning also won his minutes with a 55.65 GF%, while Gostisbehere lost his at 46.55%.

https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/233122

http://naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20162017&thruseason=20182019&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&stdoi=std&rate=y&team=PHI&pos=D&loc=B&toi=0&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410&lines=single&draftteam=ALL




But you're not doing that - you're trading cost-controlled Klefbom + a good prospect for Ehlers. I don't have a problem targeting Ehlers, but (a) Klefbom+ is too much to pay, and (b) Ehlers isn't a replacement for RNH since he can't play center.



I still dont think it's apples and apples when one guy plays 20% more than the other. How is he going to be as fresh every shift? We're talking average 4 more minutes per night.

And yes, over 3 years his stats looks worse, but it doesn't factor in that all of Philly has been statistically worse in those 2 years. The year prior to this comparison Ghost had 60% GF%. If you look at Philly over the time period you mention, every single D-man had better GF% with than without Ghost 5v5. For scoring rate his average drops because of a bad year at 0.49, but he has better scoring in 2/3, with a 1.2 in the year prior.

I will continue to claim that advanced stats does not show context. Pretty much every player had a 10% GF% increase playing with McDavid, and that's 30% of Bennings total icetime. Are those numbers Bennings?
Aug. 26, 2019 at 4:29 p.m.
#19
Avatar of the user
Joined: Mar. 2017
Posts: 23,753
Likes: 7,634
Quoting: Fleurdelille
I still dont think it's apples and apples when one guy plays 20% more than the other. How is he going to be as fresh every shift? We're talking average 4 more minutes per night.

And yes, over 3 years his stats looks worse, but it doesn't factor in that all of Philly has been statistically worse in those 2 years. The year prior to this comparison Ghost had 60% GF%. If you look at Philly over the time period you mention, every single D-man had better GF% with than without Ghost 5v5. For scoring rate his average drops because of a bad year at 0.49, but he has better scoring in 2/3, with a 1.2 in the year prior.

I will continue to claim that advanced stats does not show context. Pretty much every player had a 10% GF% increase playing with McDavid, and that's 30% of Bennings total icetime. Are those numbers Bennings?


Benning posted a 49.18 GF% without McDavid while playing in the top-4 over the past 3 years. Not bad considering how terrible the Oilers are behind McDavid.
Aug. 27, 2019 at 7:07 a.m.
#20
Thread Starter
Fleurdelille
Avatar of the user
Joined: Jun. 2016
Posts: 292
Likes: 54
Quoting: CD282
Benning posted a 49.18 GF% without McDavid while playing in the top-4 over the past 3 years. Not bad considering how terrible the Oilers are behind McDavid.


Yes. And he is re-signed on this team for 2 years for a reason.
 
Reply
To create a post please Login or Register
Question:
Options:
Add Option
Submit Poll