You know you can create a 2020-21 or 2021-22 roster, right?

There are things here I don't immediately agree with, and a couple things you seem to be mistaken about. I'll assume that you literally mean what the state of the Oilers is likely to be in 2 seasons' time:

Maksimov is likely still going to be breaking through the AHL by the conclusion of the 2022 season. Based strictly off the Bakersfield depth chart - and knowing that there are AHL-only contracts that need to be honoured - he will see at most 4th-line icetime at 5v5 and MIGHT see some PP2 time. Next year will hopefully feature Maksimov in a larger role in the AHL, but the extent to how he climbs in the minors will solely depend on whether or not his footspeed and sense grows with his progression through professional hockey. Worst-case scenario he becomes a top-9 forward in the AHL with powerplay specialization. Best case scenario he finds himself on the top line having learned to keep his pace up and use his size and shot to their full potential. Tracking that development before he's played any professional games removes the science and statistics from the equation. It's wild speculation at that point. Could he succeed alongside McDavid and Draisaitl? It's a possibility, but making a call on where players picked from Canadian major junior outside of the top-100 in any draft this early is borderline impossible. We wait.

Minor detail here, but Lavoie is not going to be an NHL center; his power-forward playstyle and lack of quick boots will push him into developing as a winger. This isn't necessarily a problem, but to me it's suggesting that you have an unfamiliarity with the Oilers' system. A few other things go on to suggest this too, but I do agree that in two years' time, Lavoie could be playing as the #3RW and possibly pushing himself into the top-6. Penciling Yamamoto in as a top-6 winger however, especially when he hasn't shown incredibly well at the AHL-level and is coming off of what sounds like a significant wrist injury is naive at best. This year will make or break Yamamoto as a prospect in my eyes. If he finds that extra gear and regains the offensive flair he had in the WHL, then sky's the limit. If not, his injury history and lesser AHL production suggests that a trade that maximizes his remaining value should take place.

Neither Khaira or Bear should be full-time NHL players: Bear lacks a strong enough game away from the puck and has had his development shunted by injuries, leaving him much more suited to a #7 PP specialist role. Khiara has shown to be little more than an average 4th-line forward but doesn't have the underlying numbers to suggest that he's genuinely beneficial to have in a team's bottom-6. Just because the Oilers use him as a center or on their penalty kill (which was bad) does not mean he's actually a quality NHLer. He's mildly overpaid, which probably doesn't matter for the duration of his contract, but would otherwise affect a cap-stressed team. I'm also in the camp that's not super high on Marody (I swear I'm not a pessimist, I've just been burned by this team a lot in the past), and figure his ceiling is probably a skilled #4RW that can step into a special teams role (due to injuries) without sinking the performance of the special teams unit he's on. Again, it's a footspeed issue, but also factors his age a bit: he's an older prospect and has probably peaked in terms of what we're going to see from him, which leads to NHL translation issues.

I don't think Koskinen will be with the team after this season: I have zero faith in his abilities and would not be shocked to see Holland move to buy him out in favour of a replacement. The UFA market is incredibly shallow so I would expect a trade to address issues between the pipes. I haven't seen enough of Starrett to be convinced in his abilities either, but he has the benefit of having time to prove himself. I firmly believe that Nugent-Hopkins and Nurse will be traded between the deadline and draft: if Holland's committed to rebuilding this team right, they're 2 of 3 valuable, movable, and expendable assets this team currently has (Larsson is the 3rd). Getting any substantial picks or prospects to build a new core around begets those two being traded. I think Klefbom's contract and the need to have at least one NHL defender on next years' roster keeps him around long term.

Don't take what I've dumped here too hard. Projecting any roster in 2 years is insanely difficult and development is never a linear process. Half the names I've mentioned here could quickly turn around and prove me wrong, or we could all be wrong about names that we thought were sure-fire bets. Just me applying what I've seen both from the player in question and historically and what I've contextualized from data and my observations. A high 1st- and 2nd Round Pick in this upcoming draft does a projection like this wonders.

klefbom will be gone, broberg-nurse as LD

this is more like a 22-23 roster and i know i can create that it is just easier cause i dont have to go and resign every single player.

Klefbom has 4 more years on his contract, why would he be gone?

I don't hardly know where to start, but it galls me that you're writing guys off because they missed some time due to injury last year - Yamamoto and Bear specifically. I don't see you calling out Benson and he's missed significant time in 3 of the past 4 seasons, but last year wasn't one of them so now all is golden? Yamamoto and Bear are clearly not finished developing, they played well in the AHL last year when healthy and the book isn't written yet. Calm your tits.

You are all wrong on Maksimov too if you think it's "likely" to take 3 years for him to break through in the AHL. He's not a sure thing but 3 years is a looong time just to get top-6 minutes in the AHL. And basing your speculation on draft position is silly, as we have 2 years of stats and a whole lot of tape to look at since then. He has improved. Here's dobber's most recent note:

March 2019 – It has been another solid and productive season for Maximov. Last season he recorded 80 points in 62 games and this year he has 79 points (17th in the league) in 62 games. He has season his goal total go up from 34 to 40 as well as his penalty increase from 72 to 118. His 40 goals places him 11th in the league. We know he can score goals but his overall game and compete level has improved this season. He has been more physical and more willing to help out defensively than in the past. The Oilers lack true goal-scorers, and with Maximov turning pro next season, hopefully he can bring his finishing ability to the AHL. Jameson Ewasiuk

Re: trading Nuge, Nurse and Larsson: Holland made it clear that he isn't doing a "tear-down" rebuild here. Trading a player like Nurse isn't something you do in a rebuild anyhow, as he's the right age to fit into the current core already. He's 24, Draisaitl is 23 and McDavid is 22. Since defensemen peak later than forwards, trading him isn't logical at all. Even Klefbom and Larsson are just 26 - and every winning team has proven that you need a range of players to win, going with all youth has never worked. How much better would this team be today if they hadn't traded Petry, Schultz etc for magic beans?

A lot of it has to do with production post-injury: Benson put up a point-per-game pace in the AHL over the course of a whole season after managing his injuries and taking a fourth year to play in the WHL. Benson's injuries (spine cyst, groin, shoulder, and hernia I believe) aren't as damning for a guy who was never labelled as a speedster or top-tier sniper. I would still be advocating for Benson to play another year in the AHL if there was any other top-6 option for this team. Unfortunately, there isn't, and he will be (in my eyes) rushed.

In the case of Yamamoto, there's been a decline in his numbers since getting hurt at the 2018 WJC's. Ultimately, he got shut down during the WHL playoffs that year, and then wound up with a pretty significant wrist injury that benched him for the back-half of this season. Yamamoto's calling card was supposed to be his ability to put pucks in the net. Having a wrist injury is incredibly detrimental to that - this is something that even Lowetide has gone on about on his show - and Kailer's ability to strengthen his wrist and rise above it is basically going to make or break whether or not he lands a prominent role in the NHL. It's not a bias, but simply logic. How is an NHL player expected to produce if they can't shoot properly?

Bear's path to the NHL was always uphill: he was never a prominent defender until his +2 year in the WHL. His offensive game was always his upside, which was already limiting his ceiling. Concussions are scary business, and taking away that icetime required to learn a more "responsible" professional game isn't helping him. Bouchard has passed him, and Berglund is poised to come over with Broberg next fall. Bear hasn't shown the skills over the course of 4 seasons to suggest that he's going to develop into anything more into a specialist.

I'm not damning these players and praising others for my own amusement or to establish my own agenda: Bear is going into his draft +4 season with very little to show for it, where as other defenders have at least had a damn good year in the AHL by now and are either the top-pairing option in the minors or are playing bottom-pair minutes in the NHL (I just described Jones' projection if you want a quick comparable). Yamamoto was not handled properly by the Oilers from the start (imagine that) and now has the disadvantage of having his moneymaker hurt. I never wrote him off as a prospect, I merely stated that this is the year he needs to show it. His production last season was acceptable: professional hockey is an adjustment, but he needs to hit point-per-game numbers next year to prove himself to the franchise. Take the data, the information, and run them against the situation these three men have. Don't quote me as irrational or insist I calm down when I'm merely observing. I've been burned by this organization before, and I don't maintain the optimism you do. If I assume worst case scenario, everything that turns out better than that is a bonus.

Maksimov will take 2 years minimum at the AHL level and if you bothered to read what I said, you'd understand why and I wouldn't be explaining it to you again. He won't garner enough icetime this upcoming season - strictly due to players in front of him - to warrant enough growth to jump immediately into a top-line NHL role. A second year where he can move up the organizational depth and play in more situations with a greater TOI will better prepare him for whatever his NHL role may be. There's the matter of Lavoie, possibly Yamamoto, and possibly a lottery pick this year impeding Maksimov's path to the NHL, which could push the 3rd year of AHL playingtime. I'll admit that 2022 was a typo, it should be 2021, but the addition of my last statement holds true. It's not a clear and dry path for Kirill. Nothing about him being more of a project is a bad thing, and if the extra year takes him from one-dimensional scorer to a more responsible scoring threat, everyone wins.

I'll include the trading away players part in a second post due to how unrelated the topic is to these four prospects.

Nurse is exactly the kind of player that should be traded away in a rebuild: he's a mediocre talent that's going to demand a star payday and maintains more value outside the organization than he would internally. His RFA status means we can keep him for the season and still get a good return on him at the draft: he doesn't have to be traded away today.

I like Nurse as a player, and he was the guy I wanted in the 2013 draft, but he didn't pan out as the top-pairing, smooth skating reliable defender he was billed as. The Edmonton Oilers are eventually going to have huge cap issues again in a couple years with their expiring RFAs demanding more than sub-$1M contracts. Not having arbitration rights doesn't seem to matter anymore when players are willing to hold out over contracts: Ivan Barbashev is currently holding out over a $700k gap in his deal and does not have the credibility a Marner or Rantanen has, what does this suggest for the future of smaller bridge deals for middle-six or bottom-six RFAs? If Nurse's ask is anything north of $5.4M depending on the term, I send him packing immediately. He's not worth the same kind of cash that Ekblad or Ellis make annually, and everyone acknowledges that the Lindell contract was an overpayment. Because teams will value what he brings - despite not being the top pairing guy he needed to be - you sell as high as reasonably possible as you can on him. Jones is likely going to get a full year of NHL experience this season, and Lagesson is arguably just as ready. Samorukov is progressing incredibly well and could be a year or two out. A name like Ian Cole could be had for a year to bridge the gap in how ready Jones could be for a top-4 role next season and you end up running 2A and 2B pairings behind Klefbom and whoever his partner is.

I don't understand how Holland would expect to make this roster competitive in three years when RNH and Larsson wouldn't have contracts that extend into that window. If either resigns, it's for a raise. If the Oilers - again - are bound to be in another cap crunch, where does that money come from? Larsson is a horribly average defenceman at best and is incapable of transitioning the puck. This isn't one of those moves I expect to happen right now - I'd wager the 2021 deadline - but ensuring an asset in return as opposed to nothing is just good business.

The 2020 draft is one of the deepest on record since 2015, and there are legitimate answers to Edmonton's scoring and goaltending woes (I'm not sold on all 4 of our signed prospects and Konovalov is a huge wildcard) in the first round this year. A score like Holtz and Askarov - who are more in line with the ages of Broberg, Bouchard, Lavoie, and McDavid than either RNH or Larsson - requires selling assets today to build for tomorrow. Nugent-Hopkins and Nurse will price themselves out of Edmonton, and Larsson never came as advertised and won't warrant his next raise. Holland never identified any of these three players in discussions regarding Edmonton's core, and I imagine that prospects instead of picks, will be the main ask such that there are skilled bodies coming onto the roster over the next two seasons.

To answer your question, revisionist history is irrelevant. Schultz was not the player he became in Pittsburgh while he was here. Dubnyk wasn't the goaltender we saw in Minnesota either, and three other teams passed on him before he clicked. Petry was but nobody besides a small group of fans saw it. The biggest problem with those trades is that the asset was sold at its lowest value. The second biggest problem was how bad the Oilers were at scouting up until two calendar years ago.

When Broberg comes in

Why can't we have both? Having a good player coming up doesn't mean you get rid of your incumbent good player. A smart team replaces a mediocre player and then has 2 good players.

I don't have a problem with Maksimov spending 2 years in the AHL, but 3 years to "break through" isn't likely. And I disagree about spending the 1st year on the 4th line with limited minutes - Woodcroft has been very good about placing prospects in positions to succeed. As far as I can see, Yamamoto and Maksimov are the most skilled RW prospects in Bakersfield this year and they'll certainly get top-9 placement, possibly both in the top-6 even. Yamamoto was dominant in last year when healthy so I think he'll start at 1RW, leaving ample ice-time for Maksimov.

Ok so where would Nurse play then

I have Curie and Russell ahead of him for a few reasons: they aren't dead weight and aren't 4th line forwards, Russell is really strong defensively and should make McLeod's transition to pro a lot easier, and tie to the veteran. I was surprised when Russell was resigned and all the more surprised that Curie wasn't flipped for another minor leaguer after it happened, as I wanted to see Maksimov in a top-9 role in the minors. There's also the matter of Bakersfield signing its own set of contracts and seemingly not being 100% under Oilers control. Sheltered minutes and powerplay time - where he can work on his minor details, possibly be a standout on his line, and not have to worry about making too many mistakes is a compromise I've had to come to terms with him. The other option is Woodcroft runs a blender for the bottom-6 or bottom-9, but I think for chemistry's sake and the goal of making the Calder Cup final, this might be off the table.

I've said this before: we're on the same page with a lot of this stuff, we just interpret it differently. And you've seen my AHL lines, you're aware of the temporary logjam Edmonton has in the minors right now.

Depends what year you're talking about. Broberg won't make the NHL until 2020-21 at the very earliest and then he'll likely spend at least a year on the 3rd pair. Kind of like how Sergachev is the 3LD in Tampa, 4 years after being drafted. Klefbom and Nurse are likely to be the Oilers' 1LD and 2LD for 3 more years.

I don't think Maksimov needs sheltered minutes in the AHL, he plays a pro-style game already. There appears to be a logjam because there is no limit to roster size in AHL; some of those guys (the AHL contract guys, mainly) will play in ECHL this year.

Thought you'd like this:

https://theoilknight.ca/2019/03/13/kirill-maksimov-prospect-review/

Just counting the forwards last year, six guys with an AHL-only deal played 199 games total. Average of 33 games per. The Condors currently have 5 players on an AHL-only deal, of which I only see Beau Starrett and maybe Jakob Stukel automatically being assigned to the ECHL. Peluso has never played a game in the ECHL, Esposito had a full season with the Condors last year, and Iacobellis is likely to split the season between the two leagues. It's likely they take up about 100+ games next season. Are they going to bench the veterans during a potential race to the playoffs? I'm pretty sure rookies tend to be the ones that get the nights off during back-to-backs due to not being fully accustomed to a pro league and being more useful when they're fresh.

I'm really not trying to be a pain in the ass here, but I don't see how Maksimov finds himself anywhere else on the roster for this season. It's not ideal, but it's not terrible.

Looking at Woodcroft's usage of rookies last year there's really nothing to support your fears.

If anything, it strongly suggests that the lines I had won't change much. The first glance at the GP totals for the Condors suggests that Woodcroft ran his top two lines and top pairing consistently, then load managed everything else, but once you factor for injuries and call-ups to the NHL, his lines don't change at all, or at most shuffle between the same set of names. His top-3 RW last year all played a similar number of games, and all were called up at some point last year at differing times. To me, that suggests that given his tools, Woodcroft keeps stable lines and manages smaller promotions when players are called up or hurt.

I don't think I'm out to lunch by suggesting Jurco was not brought in to be a consistent NHL option, but to be another weapon in the Bakersfield murder machine. I've established that Yamamoto needs a strong year in the AHL to regain his traction, thus a call-up isn't likely unless he burns the roof off of his own ceiling. Currie and Russell are not going to be playing 4th-line minutes at the AHL level and given how the Oilers have called them up prior, make up a group of 4 names among the forwards that are most likely to see some NHL time this season (Gambardella, Malone, Currie, Russell).

Will there be instances where Maksimov sees top-9 icetime? Absolutely. Between injuries and call-ups, it's inevitable, but until either of those things happen, he's going to start the year where I have him. Please note that it's not an indictment on his ability, the Condors just have a really deep roster right now.

Here's the thing though: there's absolutely no reason that Currie / Russell can't / won't play on the 4th line in Bakersfield. Woodcroft's job is to develop prospects - winning is secondary - and Currie and Russell aren't prospects anymore as both are 26 years old. I don't think he'll prioritize Russell over Maksimov.

I have a feeling that by the time the deadline passes there will be plenty of TOI to go around.

BTW, I'm working on a 2021-22 mock that has Maksimov on the 4th line.