That OS makes me uncomfortable.

Marner isn't looking for what's fair he's looking for what's best for him. I heard he wants the biggest bridge deal ever 10x3. I agree what you posted is fair and reasonable. Unless it is too late I don't think Marner will go for that. Dubas kind of made himself vulnerable when he gave Nylander PRETTY MUCH what he wanted then gave Matthews 11.6M x 5 years. I think one of these two things will happen: Marner will get the contract he wants or he his rights will be traded.

Nylander wanted 8.5m and got 6.9m. Marner had 3 years to prove he could be the best 5v5 scoring centre in the league but he didn’t.

Marner has 2 options:

sign a fair deal, 9m x 3 years is stupid. Aho signed 8.5m x 5yrs. Why would he get double the last highest bridge deal ever?

Play overseas for peanuts

Dubas has two options:

Sign marner

Trade marner

I pretty much just said that.

Well from what I read it sounded like you were blaming dubas for overpaying nylander and Matthews. I think they are on the best deals we could get. He held firm on nylander and Matthews... well Dubas certainly has no leverage there. He would have got an offersheet for sure.

Marner will get the contract he wants? Nope, he will get what’s negotiated. Much like when nylander held out the leafs have plenty of talent up front. Marner has very little (NO) leverage. Dubas will probably wait for other RFA’s to sign deals then let marner fall into place.

If I'm in Marner's shoes, I'm going for a 4 or 5 year deal to get to UFA status and that should be around $9.5M to $10M per year fair value.

What is frustrating in these AGM's is saying points dictates contracts and therefore the logic is easy. The most recent comparison is Aho. Aho is not Marner and please let's all stop with all that matters is points or whether the player is a center or wing while saying "fair" is purely on logic. The reality is, "fair" in any support isn't purely logic it's highly subjective. Furthermore, scoring points on one team is a controlled comparison to scoring on another team. You have different players around you, are in a different system, play different teams, age, miles on the skates, individual player development, etc.

The logic for points equates to a "fair" contract can support some of the evaluation of a fair contract and should but that doesn't mean it's black and white. Marner is one of the smartest hockey players in the NHL and sees the ice better then 99% of players. How do you measure that against Aho's contract? How important is Marner to Toronto as a cash rich team versus Aho to Carolina as a cash poor team? Historically what kind of deals has Toronto dished out recently? All this comes into play. Points and age while concrete, are only part of the equation, so anyone saying he should be paid just like Aho simply doesn't get the overall picture of negotiations.

Take Mathews...did he earn that contract when he signed it a year ago based on points and age and comparables? Just compare McDavid to Matthews dollar for dollar. I'd argue Matthews was definitely overpaid so damn right Marner is going for big dollars. The intangibles mean something.

Dubas should wait for other FA's deals to fall in place, but Marner does have options. His agent can pick up the phone and start calling teams and say Marner will sign a $10.5M or even $9.5M offer sheet on a 5 year deal, that's how they force the Leafs hands to match it because I don't see $9M getting a deal done.

I was kinda with ya til the part where Feris phones other teams and tells them Marner would sign a 9.5 or 10.5M/5yr OS. You're right, it would force the leafs to match, and they would.

Every team surely knows this after the Clarkson trade and the cap space the leafs have allocated with their LTIR allowance. So, why would a team even bother to issue an OS that's doomed to be matched? To help Marner?? To pester the leafs?? There seems to be little to no benefit for the phantom OS team in this scenario.

If Marner actually had that kind of leverage I'm sure it woulda happened already. I agree with Po in that Marner has very little leverage. Its bully tactics at this point. The leafs can wait for the other rfas to set the market. Or Marner can play in Europe for less than his last contract. That'll teach the leafs to disrespect the Richy Mitch.

If it gets to the point of the Leafs only offering say a $7.5M for 3 years or $9.5M for 7 or 8 like Po says, I'm willing to bet they reach out to other teams and get a offer sheet. Let's say MTL...do you think they care if they piss off the Leafs or furthermore if they force the Leafs into a max deal to strap their cap?

I don't really disagree with you. I just don't see what benefit the phantom OS team gets out of it. Maybe it would make them smile to see the leafs squirm when they need to match . But I imagine they'd have more pressing business to take care of related to their own in-house needs.