I think we are close to thinking the same thing. Matthews will absolutely get a monster contract next but I don't think it'll have an 8 year term then either. I should have mentioned that I think a lot of fans think Matthews wanting 5 years was so he can walk as an FA or test the market. I would be willing to bet he never tests the market or even comes close to testing the market. My guess is the season before he hits FA, he signs another 5 year deal and it will be huge, the highest average ever handed to a player large. McDavid won't get money like that on his next deal unless its 4 years or less and even then it may be a hard sell he'll be turning 30 at that time.

I think the reason these guys want the shorter term is so they can keep close to the market value as the cap increases. McKinnon and Schiefele should have signed short term deals so they could be getting big contracts now not when they turn 28. So much money was lost out by those star players for going longer term on a bridge deal.

Yeah I think we're just saying two different things that lead to the same result - shorter contracts.

The whole "Dubas caves" mentality is hilariously incorrect. He won with Nylander, Matthews will be fine no matter what and he isn't caving with Marner. Ferris over reached and has lost pretty much all his leverage. Marner I predict will sign for around 10 million for 6 years. He wants 5 but TO won't allow him that contract because having Marner, Nylander and Matthews needing new contracts at the same time is insanity. If he wants less than 5 the only option is 2 or 3 years where TO won't give him close to what he wants. A shorter contract does come with risk, what if Nylander outscores him this year? What if Matthews has a massive year and Marner is the 3rd or 4th top scorer on the team?

Ferris has worked this wrong just like he did with AA in Detroit and Anderson in Columbus and as soon as the other guys start signing Marner will have to be reasonable or he's going to be moved, if he keeps asking for the moon when no one wants to pay him that much, he's going to end up losing out on a lot of money.

Yup exactly, I am fine with that too, it actually does help keep value in the contracts. You are paying guys for what they can do now not what they did years ago. That Doughty contract is going to open a lot of eyes.

Marner is an elite play maker, and JT hasnt hit 40 before in his career. why do you think he would hit it with aho?

Nothing wrong with trying at all. In fact, I'd say it's a good thing. It's how his camp is going about that people take issue with.

There was no reason to make anything related to these negotiations public. That was Marner's choice. And in doing so he should expect to hear the public response.

Shorter contracts come at the cost of certainty though. That's a sticking point for players so they expect to make a little more as a result. The benefit for the teams will be getting players paid out accordingly and not paying for a players past prime years in order to get a player during their final couple years of prime years. This sudden change in the philosophy of contracts will effect the newest players signing them hardest. Once everyone is doing it, its not a big deal anymore.

The thing that sucks for Toronto for example here is that normally players like Matthews and Marner would have signed their second contracts at 6-8 million dollar for 8 years and then hit it big in free agency. With the way the players and agents are changing it, teams now are forced to payout huge contracts to players in their second contracts because that is when they generally produce the most. Then every year after free agency years they may start to see players having to accept shorter and less payout contracts as they age into their less productive years. As opposed to paying a 30 year old into his late 30's because he scored 30 goals at age 29 and is looking for his big payout.

As much as this sucks for the teams being effected by it now, it will effect everyone eventually. In the long run, this will be better IMO. Teams will be paying most of their high costs on players during their peak years as opposed to every team having a couple major albatross contracts on their roster that they need "sweeten" just to get rid of. Basically the entire 2016 free agent class being the prime example of why RFA's are getting paid more now then they used to.

Players will be signing their Cap friendly (roll credits) contracts when they're older as opposed to the Karlsson's and Pacioretty's signing those long contracts that paid them way less than they deserved during their prime years and then when they're cleary lost a step making double what they made previously because they need to get paid now.

Aho is better playmaker than Marner and he is arguably more valuable player. JT hit 47 with Marner and Aho is better so I think JT would hit 50 with Aho.

We shall agree to disagree because I believe youre way off

You make alot of sense. But I highly doubt the leafs ever table a 5yr deal. Your 6yr offer? I could certainly see that happening.. although it wouldnt make me happy..

My point is their circumstances are WAY too different to compare them to one another. Imo his perfect comparable is someone like Rantanen, who plays with a better player beside him and has a larger scale market. Aho just isn't the right idea.

people want marner to get as much as matthews because they hate the leafs

JT is 2nd overall in goals over the 5 seasons, 4 without Marner.

Saying Marner is better than Ladd/Okposo/Lee/other decent players is not a good argument for him making 11 million

Im not saying that should be his argument, im just stating I think Marner is more dynamic than aho

I agree with a lot of what you're saying regarding Ferris, but he's far from alone there. It's a business and business is risky. Shanahan really did put it best. You're not going to remember whether you made $9M or $10M in any specific year. What you're going to remember is either winning or quite possibly regretting not having quality teammates. With that said, you're living in a dream world if you think for 1 single second that $7M a year is worth .67 ppg for a playmaking winger...the single easiest position to come by in the NHL. COULD he bounce back...absolutely, but he's done LITERALLY nothing, zilch, nada, zippo, zero in the NHL to deserve that contract to date. It's hopes and dreams that maybe will come true and maybe won't.

marner will sign for 2 million

what do people mean by dynamic? production is what matters (box score and advance statistics) play style (such as being "dynamic") is just how they do it. (ex: JVR scores differently than Pasta but as far as goal scoring they are both very good)

Aho is amazing at driving play, scored more goals although had less assists and is a center.

yeah I believe Marner drives play more than aho

Lol. In the Khl!

This is probably the most accurate post in this thread

Way off? So a pure winger with 90+ point season playing with one of the best centermen in the league is better than versatille centerman/winger playing with much lower level of quality and puts only 10 points less? Okey well..

not way off..

but off

Rantanen is pretty much the perfect comparable, although I do think McKinnon is much better than Tavares so Marner I think is better than Rantanen but its close enough to say they should have similar contracts.

You said way off. We might disagree about that "off" part but I respect your opinion.

Lets circle back to this after this season. I'd be willing to wager a lot that a lot of people are going to be eating their words and will call Nylander's contract a steal.

based on what metric?