I think Winnipeg is the most screwed if their rfas hold out for awhile. But who's second. Does Boston hurt with Carlo and McAvoy out? Tampa and Toronto probably has the depth to at least snag a wildcard spot. Have the Flyers got the depth to stay alive?

Also after Nylander's holdout, which RFA has the worst season as a result?

Tampa can probably survive the best w/o Point. Their offensive depth is simply unmatched. TOR is not as deep and Marner is more integral to the Leafs success than Point is to TBL. They probably need Marner all season to be a top 3 team in the Atlantic. Winnipeg might not be a playoff team even w/ Connor and Laine in the ultra competitive Central.

Bottom line: No team other that Tampa can make the playoffs w/o their star RFA's. We all know the cliche that if you're on the outside looking in on Thanksgivivng (US) the odds of making the playoffs are drastically lower. Perhaps TOR, COL, and BOS could stage a 2nd half rally and sneak in, but it'd be tough. WPG, PHI, and CGY probably couldn't recover.

I think Laine would suffer the most on an individual basis. He needs to start strong and stay strong. At the end of the day I think Point will sign first among the forwards, probably before camp starts. Marner is the most likely hold out, in my opinion.

Is the Backes injury report true? If so, it depends how long he's out. Maybe he could be placed on LTIR?

After Winnipeg, I think Colorado could be in the most trouble if they don't sign their RFA early.

Boston (McAvoy, Carlo): They probably have the depth to stay afloat and in the playoffs without the RFAs.
Calgary (Tkachuk, Mangiapane): Tkachuk is the big piece, but they're chances are largely based on the play they get in net.
Carolina (Maenalanen, McKeown): Minimal impact.
Chicago (Perlini): He's not going to make or break their season.
Colorado (Rantanen): They don't have a lot of depth behind their top forward line. Losing Mikko for a significant span of the season would be devastating.
Columbus (Werenski): I don't expect them to contend this year regardless.
Dallas (Honka): Maybe no impact. He may be in the AHL this year.
Los Angeles (Kempe): Not expected to contend regardless.
Minnesota (Fiala): They're ability to contend is questionable anyways.
New Jersey (Zacha): Minimal impact.
NY Rangers (DeAngelo, Lemieux): Minimal impact.
Philadelphia (Provorov, Konecny): They're ability to contend is questionable, but they have depth that can slot in.
Pittsburgh (Pettersson): Minimal impact.
Tampa Bay (Point): Major player, but they have the depth to make up for his absense. They didn't miss Stamkos too much in 2016-17.
Toronto (Marner): Major player, but they have the depth to make up for his absense. They didn't miss Nylander too much in 2018-19.
Vancouver (Boeser, Goldobin): Not expected to contend anyways.
Vegas (Schuldt): Minimal impact.
Winnipeg (Connor, Laine, Comrie): The goalie is a promising prospect, but minimal impact this year. If they can't get the forwards signed it significantly eats into their depth. And they are squarely in their window of Stanley Cup contention right now.

Tampa missed the playoffs in 2016-17 b/c Stamkos missed most of the season. The value of key players cannot be overstated.

true, but I think, with what they have in top-end talent, they should be alright. They have Gourde, Stamkos, Kucherov, Pálat, Johnson can play center, and I think Cirelli could step up as well. I'm not as concerned about the Lightning.

I do think the Avs would be more boned if Rantanen missed significant time.

The players mentioned are not "hold outs". They are unsigned players, free to sign with any team. Their NHL teams are under no obligation to offer them any more than a one year qualifying offer to retain their rights.

I expect the Bruins to sign at least one of McAvoy or Carlo soon. Missing two important Dmen would really hurt the Bruins. (or any team).

But the Leafs without Marner could lose the most. Not only because Marner is may be missing time, but the Leafs defence is really shaky this year with two UFA defections, a trade Zaitsev and Dermot injured. Only two NHL quality Dmen have been added Barrie and Ceci.

Nylander was dreadful last year after missing training camp and two months of the regular season. You can never tell how these "late signees" will react to missing their regular routine.

pretty good chance a bunch of them sign right before training camp.

massive lol if most gms are waiting on mitch marner to sign.

Tampa is probably the only team that can survive the absence of one of their top players. The league is just too tight right now for teams to compensate. For example, WPG had 99 points last season and have already lost 3 of their top 6 D. If they are forced to play w/o even one of Laine or Connor for a significant number of games they will be playing catch-up for the rest of the season. The competitive balance is just that strong.

Huh; no kidding. That had completely vacated my memory somehow.

They just missed on the last day of the season if I remember correctly.

I think it's time to re-evaluate the RFA's still unsigned considering Keller's massive deal. These amounts are based on what I think they'll sign for, not what I think they're necessarily worth.

All of the following AAV's are based on max term unless otherwise noted:

1. Marner $11.5M
2. Point $9M
3. Rantanen $9.5M
4. Boeser $8.5M
5. Tkachuck $9.5M
6. McAvoy $8M
7. Provorov $7M
8. Laine $9.5M
9. Connor $8.5M
10. Werenski $7.5M
11. Zacha $3M (2-3 years)
12. Carlo $3M (2-3 years)
13. Konecny $4.5M
14. DeAngelo $3M (2-3 years)

Just for fun, here's a couple for next summer:

1. Barzal $8.5M
2. Nico $8M
3. Dubois $8M
4. Strome $6M
5. Debrincat $7.5M

Carlo will make more than 3M

Idk if it was the last day but yeah, pretty close. They were really bad at one point and then started to play much better but just missed.

When you league wide comparables are made....you have to assume Point is the # 1 RFA. So, I don't see how Marner can justify getting paid more than him (regardless off Matthews salary)

A big day is coming soon, or whether the NHLPA wants to open up contract negotiations and be in a strike position next September. If they decide to open negotiations it might hurry up signees, especially those that might receive front loaded deals.

I could see some players willing to take a two year front loaded deal....Marner Tzachuk, McAvoy would be my too favourites to take the two year bridges.

Marner shouldn't get paid more than Point, but there are other factors to consider. Point is much more likely to take a team friendly deal given what Kucherov, Stamkos, and Vas are signed for. Also, the whole no state tax thing probably helps. And I don't think any of the big names are even considering bridge deals unless, like you said, the money is huge. If Dubas ever thought he was gonna sign Marner long term for under $10M he was not thinking rationally.

Bostons blue line sucks w out those 2. Krug is like not even a defender and Chara is very old.

I thought Krug was much better defensively during the post season. Maybe he's turned a corner?

Maybe, Bruins fans better hope so if McAvoy and Carlo hold out

problem is krug is left shot not right. both mcavoy and carlo are right shot. as is right now, you would be elevating miller or clifton into that 1st pair rd role and theres really nothing behind either of those guys ready in the organization that i know of, that are right shot. grz can play off-d but he is better at LD as a left shot guy.

They have RHD Petrovic on PTO.

sooo petrovic is going to be playing 1st or 2nd line RD? yuck.

I would assume Clifton (maybe Miller) would be on the 1st and 2nd pair and Petrovic fills in on the bottom pair. Still yuck, but I was just responding to "...theres really nothing behind either of those guys ready in the organization that i know of, that are right shot..."

right, but miller might not play to start the year because of his broken knee cap. john moore isnt starting the year because of his shoulder. IF Carlo and Mcavoy hold out and dont sign. Broons are going to end up rolling clifton/petro/??? or they are going to rush miller back or play someone off hand. after the werenski deal though, im pretty confident in both carlo and mcavoy getting deals.