Edited Sep 10, 2019 at 10:48
I highly doubt a trade is going to happen this summer. Closer to the end of his next contract (like with Trouba)? Getting warmer. I reckon, in fact I’m almost certain, that Laine will be locked up on a 2y or 3y bridge deal with an AAV in the 5.5M to 7.0M range (higher for the extra year). After last season there’s a lot of questions and likely some variance between how much money he wants and how much he will be able to get.
What do you think about adavanced stats 5v5:
With Laine the team is: -13% ( i think he had only 1 good month last year(november), then 9 goals in the 57 games from December to April.)
Without Laine the team is: -2%
Difference: -11% offense = really bad compared to league average and other teammates
Explanation on offense:
+ number = good
- number = bad
With Laine the team is: +14%
Without Laine the team is: -1%
Difference: +15% defense = crazy super bad compared to league average and other teammates
Explanation on defense:
+ number = bad
- number = good
Another type of adv stat(under 50 it's bad):
CF% = 46.2
The eyetest also doesn't lie, together with the -24 on the plus-minus chart, and the lack of defensive effort on his side. These stats are close to Ristolainen level of stats...
I just think he would fit for the East a lot much better(maybe with some other finnish teammates as well), then on the west, where things are much more physical and defensive oriented.
Yes, the 40-40-30 goals 3 seasons are really amazing, but are goals enough in today's NHL? I mean i heard he was semi-injured in the last season, and maybe that's why he couldn't bring his game to the next level. So i would not be surprised on a bridge deal, but last time i heard:
want long term(6+years)-small money and Laine doesn't want long-term contract nor small money = He wants short term + big money together, which is impossible imo in the current cap situation for Winnipeg to offer...
So Winnipeg willing to risk a short-term-big money contract?
8 million $ @ 3 years and banking on the fact that next 3 years he will at least once put up some positive signs( = big improvements, which will be minus numbers on the pictures i linked)) on the defensive side on the ice.
We know he will get his goals in next 3 years, thats not the problem. But in playoffs, scoring goals value is decreasing(less powerplays, more video analysis on his shot by goalies, better defense on other teams+ goalies etc...)
I think his trade value is still insanely high and i can see some teams, which will overpay to get him and risk the long contract.
That would be super benefecial for winnipeg = more chance to win the stanley cup in the long run...
Also will Laine ever agree on a 6 million $ @ 3 years contract, because i highly doubt he will. 5.5 mill $? No way
, even though i think that would be a fair price based on his performance.
Stralman got 5.5 mill $ contract @ 3 years.
Is Laine really saying to himself: "I worth as much as Stralman, an aging old defender, who most of the time injured...
...So i just take this 5.5 mill $ contract and prove it in next 3 years that i worth 10mill - 11 mill+ $."
I just don't see this happening. I know Stralman got overpaid, but why Laine shouldn't think he should get overpaid as well? He is young, scoring a lot of goals etc...
I think his agent looking at the Skinner contract to be honest... Not in the 5.5 mill - 6 mill $ range at all. You get what i'm saying?
Skinner got with his 2nd contract = 5.7 million $ @ 6 years, almost 10% of the 2012 caphit!
That's a lot closer to 8 million $, and currently it looks like trends also shifted because players want to get paid even at their 2nd contract! Their stats looked extremely smilair in points per game 2 years for skinner and 3 years for laine 0.8 ppg... So how is he accepting around 6 million $.... no way...
Probably the biggest difference on remaining RFA's demand and offer: Laine and Winnipeg.
Do you remember what Aho did?
lowballed him for lots of months with like a long-term 6 million $ offer and they never increased it... he decided to sign the offersheet the first minute possible... for only 8.5 mill $...
Why? Becasue he saw if they're offering 6 million $ to him, he will never even get 8 million $, so 8.5 mill $ is a dream scenario for him(compared to 6), and he also knew with his agent 100% that Carolina will match it in 10 minutes...
He also knew Carolina would never even think about offering him 10 million $, so 8.5 million $ actually a good deal for him...
Maybe 6.5 million $ @ 1 year, hmm , but then next year his price could be even more insane, if he puts up his best season ever... So that's not good for Winnipeg again...
If i'm Winnipeg GM, im also going for 6+ years & small money route or another option is trade. With a small bridge deal, only Laine will win, and the Jets might not even make the playoff next year...
6.5 - 7 million $ @ 2 years would make a lot of sense. But then again, that's a win for Laine... But maybe last minute winnipeg GM says "YES" to that type of deal... maybe... or holdout until december 1.(it worked out for Nylander hahaaa
So yeah i can see right now 7 million $ contract @ 1-3 years or trade... so trade seems still a viable option... but maybe thats just me... and winnipeg will pay him the big bucks at the end...
For fun, EW Contract Projections: 2019 - Laine:
7.1 million $ @ 7 years with a 27% chance... hahahaa
7.5 million $ @ 6 years with a 24% chance : better but still no way Laine says yes to this...
5 million $ @ 2 years with a 10% chance : uhummm
Connor: Based on Ehlers, and he is better than Ehlers, can't see him signing for less than 7.5-8 mill+ $ if its @ 6 years = long term...
Laine: Based on all above, my prediction for Laine, if not traded: 7.66 million $ @ 3 years
Imo Laine is more interesting right now, than the Marner "case"