Possible Solution Marner Trade

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Created by: JuicesLeafs

Team: 2019-20 Toronto Maple Leafs

Initial Creation Date: Sep. 12, 2019

Published: Sep. 12, 2019

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Free Agent Signings

RFA		YEARS	CAP HIT
Marner, Mitchell		5	$11,000,000

Trades

TOR

NSH

Buyouts

Mikhail Grabovski: $0

Retained Salary Transactions

Phil Kessel: $1,200,000 (15%)

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2020
2021
2022

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

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TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
24	$81,500,000	$80,808,866	$0	$0	$691,134

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Johnsson, Andreas $3,400,000$3,400,000 LW, RW UFA - 4	Matthews, Auston $11,634,000$11,634,000 C UFA - 5	Nylander, William $6,962,366$6,962,366 RW UFA - 5
Arvidsson, Viktor $4,250,000$4,250,000 RW, LW UFA - 5	Tavares, John $11,000,000$11,000,000 C, LW NMC UFA - 6	Kapanen, Kasperi $3,200,000$3,200,000 RW UFA - 3
	Kerfoot, Alexander $3,500,000$3,500,000 LW, C, RW UFA - 4	Moore, Trevor $775,000$775,000 LW, RW UFA - 2
Mikheyev, Ilya $925,000$925,000 LW, RW UFA - 1	Spezza, Jason $700,000$700,000 C, RW NTC UFA - 1	Åberg, Pontus $700,000$700,000 RW, LW UFA - 1
Petan, Nicolas $775,000$775,000 C, LW, RW UFA - 2

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Rielly, Morgan $5,000,000$5,000,000 LD UFA - 3	Ellis, Ryan $6,250,000$6,250,000 RD UFA - 8	Andersen, Frederik $5,000,000$5,000,000 G M-NTC UFA - 2
Muzzin, Jake $4,000,000$4,000,000 LD UFA - 1	Barrie, Tyson $2,750,000$2,750,000 RD UFA - 1	Hutchinson, Michael $700,000$700,000 G UFA - 1
Harpur, Ben $725,000$725,000 LD UFA - 1	Ceci, Cody $4,500,000$4,500,000 RD UFA - 1

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
Agostino, Kenny $737,500$737,500 LW UFA - 2		Clarkson, David $5,250,000$5,250,000 RW M-NTC, NMC UFA - 1
Schmaltz, Jordan $700,000$700,000 RD UFA - 1		Horton, Nathan $5,300,000$5,300,000 RW M-NTC, NMC UFA - 1
Shore, Nick $750,000$750,000 C UFA - 1		Hyman, Zach $2,250,000$2,250,000 RW, LW M-NTC UFA - 2
Gauthier, Frédérik $675,000$675,000 C UFA - 1

Sep. 12, 2019 at 5:15 p.m.

RangerWall92

Joined: Nov. 2018

Posts: 3,393

Likes: 989

Seeing Dermott being traded just makes all leaf fans sad. He's a top 4 D and a key piece to our future. Replace him with Bracco and maybe a 3rd

GenXHockey, Trickster, oneX and 2 others liked this.

Sep. 12, 2019 at 5:23 p.m.

JuicesLeafs

Thread Starter

Joined: Sep. 2019

Posts: 2

Likes: 0

I dont think the Preds would see the value for them in Bracco. If anything they would want a young d coming back so the options would be Sandin, Liljegran or Dermott. I would think Leafs value Sandin over Dermott while the Preds would value Dermott over Liljegran.

Sep. 12, 2019 at 5:24 p.m.

Cujo_31

Loyal Cujo fan

Joined: Jun. 2019

Posts: 87

Likes: 22

That's a great deal and if im leafs would jump all over it.

Sep. 12, 2019 at 5:41 p.m.

villenash

Joined: May 2019

Posts: 10,247

Likes: 7,114

Ellis signed a pretty team-friendly deal for 8 years, so I don't see the Preds trading him the season that it kicks in -- that would be a very bad PR look for them and for anyone looking to sign with the Preds, internally or through free agency. Marner would be a great addition, but I don't see it happening with that combination of players. Maybe something around Josi, if it looks like the Preds can't sign him long-term.

Sep. 12, 2019 at 6:03 p.m.

I_Know_Nothing_About_Hockey_Or_Any_Sport2

Joined: May 2017

Posts: 517

Likes: 214

Doesn't it sort of hurt Marner's trade value - especially if you're trading him to a team without much cap space - that he wants such a high AAV?

Sep. 12, 2019 at 6:14 p.m.

oneX

Joined: Mar. 2019

Posts: 2,770

Likes: 2,619

Quoting: I_Know_Nothing_About_Hockey_Or_Any_Sport2

Doesn't it sort of hurt Marner's trade value - especially if you're trading him to a team without much cap space - that he wants such a high AAV?

Marner doesn't get a say in where he gets traded. And the thing about being traded means...he loses the team comparables argument in contract negotiations with any new team.

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Sep. 12, 2019 at 6:26 p.m.

Isles777

Isles7

Joined: Jun. 2019

Posts: 12,222

Likes: 5,299

I'd rather have Arvidson at 4.25 AAV + for the next 5 years than Marner at 11 mill. Arvidsson was at a 47 goal pace last season. Arvidsson's contract gives him a lot of value in the trade market. If he was a UFA he would get twice his current cap hit.

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Sep. 12, 2019 at 6:37 p.m.

blowing_the_zone

Joined: May 2018

Posts: 2,132

Likes: 1,540

Quoting: oneX

Marner doesn't get a say in where he gets traded. And the thing about being traded means...he loses the team comparables argument in contract negotiations with any new team.

Mitch, Paul, Dreger, and Ferris are probably the only hockey people out there that actually think Marner = AM. No one really buys that bs.

You are right, though, onex. He doesn't get a say in where he gets traded to. But I can't see another team trading for an unsigned Marner and dealing with the leafs problem child. He would need to be signed, and apparently Mitchy Rich only wants the AM deal.

So, the question for me becomes what would a team trade for the privilege of an overpaid Marner? Not near as much as we're being lead to believe, is my guess. I mean, what happened to all those OSs Dreger promised us? The Marner's camp narrative is mostly manufactured nonsense, imo.

I could actually see Mitch's ego pricing him out of the NHL this year. I really don't think anyones thinks he's worth what he's demanding. And it might take Mitch, Paul and co. a year playing in Europe to come to terms with reality. And for what??

Im starting to find the delusions from Marner's camp actually funny to watch, as the narrative and the public begin to turn against him.. and they did this all to themselves. Smh.

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Sep. 12, 2019 at 6:48 p.m.

herzausstein

Joined: Jun. 2016

Posts: 3,304

Likes: 1,834

On a personal note:

As a Nashville fan, marner and his agent can stay in Toronto.

Value wise:

Idk. Marner is coming off a huge year and is young. How his group has approached the contract negotiations makes me want no part of him since he seems to be requesting the stars and the moon. I don’t know how to value dermott since I haven’t really paid much attention to him.

Arvidsson has seemed to be the engine that really pushed the team forward during large periods of the season. He really does it all and unless he request a trade I doubt he goes anywhere since his contract is a steal.

Ellis just signed a contract that is slightly discounted and trading him prior to a Josi extension will not happen as it would reflect poorly.

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Sep. 12, 2019 at 7:14 p.m.

#10

Trickster

hey look a squirrel

Joined: May 2018

Posts: 6,047

Likes: 3,752

I like Ellis but moving Dermott is non starter.
I am fed up with Paul Marner and his goons.

At what point does Marner decide the PR nightmare needs to end?
@onex @jamiepo @palhal @blowing_the_zone @swinny @OldNYIfan @Sign_em_up000000 @Random2152 @Jangle29

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Sep. 12, 2019 at 7:41 p.m.

#11

OldNYIfan

Once a Kings Fan Too

Joined: Jun. 2018

Posts: 40,106

Likes: 25,023

This Marner problem is primarily his and his entourage's to own, but Dubas has a small part of the responsibility for the way he handled Nylander last year. We can put that down to experience, or his lack thereof. I have been involved in all kinds of negotiations, from SAG/AFTRA and Writers Guild talks to much less weighty occasions, and one of the lessons I've learned is that the side that goes to the last instant and then signs on its terms is the winner. Letting Nylander go to the last possible moment had predictably foreseeable results: namely, he was utterly unprepared for the regular season, and no one was discouraged from future imitation. If Dubas now allows Marner to go past November 1, then he will never ever get a good outcome in contract negotiations in the future. To put it another way, Dubas has to set the deadline, not the NHL.

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Sep. 12, 2019 at 7:47 p.m.

#12

palhal

LongtimeLeafsufferer

Joined: Jul. 2015

Posts: 59,429

Likes: 22,636

Quoting: Trickster

Think he has gone to far now to back down. So he signs very soon....and not misses any games or we are looking at December 1. Nothing in between. IMO he signs a one year deal. Though I don't think Marner will be traded this season, it sure looks he isn't long for the Leafs. He's traded next summer.

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Sep. 12, 2019 at 7:54 p.m.

#13

Sign_em_up000000

Joined: Jun. 2019

Posts: 4,002

Likes: 2,584

Quoting: Trickster

Maybe I'm in the minority here... But I honestly don't care if Mitch plays in Europe for the year. This ain't our year and we haven't been able to advance past the first round with him anyways so... Meh if he wants to leave millions on the table and lose his endorsement deals that's up to him, maybe it will help him gain some perspective.

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Sep. 12, 2019 at 8:05 p.m.

#14

palhal

LongtimeLeafsufferer

Joined: Jul. 2015

Posts: 59,429

Likes: 22,636

Quoting: Sign_em_up000000

I said one year, because the Leafs have to offer him that in order to keep his NHL rights. Maybe the Leafs negotiation after October 1st .... take all offers off the table except for. the one year. Marner can make offers and the Leafs can accept one if they want. And if no offers are accepted, you're right, Europe looms unless suddenly there is an offer sheet or "perspective" is suddenly found.

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Sep. 12, 2019 at 8:33 p.m.

#15

GenXHockey

Formerly Jamiepo

Joined: Jul. 2018

Posts: 21,156

Likes: 10,700

Quoting: palhal

Unless Mitch feels like playing for under 1m... so long as they keep sending him QO’s they own his rights till 27.

I wonder if the nhlpa opt’s out of the cba next year if Mitch is still waiting to sit out...

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Sep. 12, 2019 at 8:41 p.m.

#16

palhal

LongtimeLeafsufferer

Joined: Jul. 2015

Posts: 59,429

Likes: 22,636

Quoting: Jamiepo

He's under Leafs control for four more years so he already played three years under ELC. Trouba took short team deals in order to get get to free agency ASAP. Then he pulled offer a long term....the fifth highest paid Dman in the league in last year as RFA. It might be the Marner plan to reach UFA in four years. But apparently he won't be satisfied even until he second highest paid player in the league. Don't see that coming from the Leafs or any team.

The NHLPA sits out because of Marner? Most of the NHLPA members are mid to lower paid players. I betcha the reality is that most of those players feel "cheated" that these RFAs with leverage are getting paid so much, and squeezing them financially.

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Sep. 12, 2019 at 9:35 p.m.

#17

GenXHockey

Formerly Jamiepo

Joined: Jul. 2018

Posts: 21,156

Likes: 10,700

Quoting: palhal

That is my point, if they decide to opt out and marner fails to sign a deal all the leafs have to do is send him a QO next year. So no money in 19/20 and 900k in 20/21. Don’t think marner risks that.

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Sep. 12, 2019 at 9:48 p.m.

#18

palhal

LongtimeLeafsufferer

Joined: Jul. 2015

Posts: 59,429

Likes: 22,636

Quoting: Jamiepo

If Marner thinks there could be strike in 2020/21, maybe a front loaded two year deal looks very appealing to him.. Heck the AAV could be 7.5m. It only money to MLSE, but a nice AAV for two years.

Trickster liked this.

Sep. 12, 2019 at 10:42 p.m.

#19

blowing_the_zone

Joined: May 2018

Posts: 2,132

Likes: 1,540

Quoting: palhal

If Marner thinks there could be strike in 2020/21, maybe a front loaded two year deal looks very appealing to him.. Heck the AAV could be 7.5m. It only money to MLSE, but a nice AAV for two years.

One of the things that's been interesting to me re this Marner debate is that a bunch of smart hockey people have been debating what the contract should/could be based on logic and reason.

And here's the thing.. it doesn't appear that any of this is based on logic or reason. Apparently the kid has turned down an 80-88M deal!? Logic and reason appear to be out the window.. its anyone's best guess as to what's motivating Marner and co. at this point.

My guess is that all of this is being motivated by a need to appease some kinda bruised ego. And if that's true, its probably not good news for where this all ends up.. for either side of the negotiating table.

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Sep. 13, 2019 at 3:28 a.m.

#20

oneX

Joined: Mar. 2019

Posts: 2,770

Likes: 2,619

Quoting: Trickster

So some excellent points being made here. Let me bring another perspective: will Marner say to dad and agent "look, I want to get paid but I want to play for the Leafs first and foremost so let's just end this and accept something reasonable" ??

Well...people need to look at their own lives and ask "when was I able to stand up to my dad and say something similar"
Truth is he's a 20-something year old kid. Can he ask dad to step aside? It doesn't look like he is able to ask that. I don't know know the kid well enough to know if he has something like that in him to pull off.

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Sep. 13, 2019 at 7:19 a.m.

#21

blowing_the_zone

Joined: May 2018

Posts: 2,132

Likes: 1,540

Quoting: oneX

I suppose this is kinda fair. But to flip the coin and look at the othe side,, Mitch is 22 and not 16.

Its impossible to know the dynamics behind what's driving this dysfunction, but if I was to hazard a guess, I'd agree with you and say it's mostly coming from Paul (given the snippets we've heard from him in the press), Ferris (given that he's an agent and the history we know of his tactics) and Dreger (given his obvious hubris that we see day in and day out).

Whatever is driving this it's a game that they've been playing that theyre losing (insofar as the pr battle) and one that could have serious negative consequences for Mitch and his career.

They've literally said no to a contract offer that would have made Mitch one of the highest paid players in the game and a guarantee of over $100M Cdn. And they're still playing the victim card??

Hopefully Marner and his camp gain some perspective soon, but if they don't they are quite literally p*sting away a very charmed life. Not just for Mitch, but the next couple of generations of Marners... and for what?

I dunno. But watching this car wreck in real time is both fascinating and a little sad.

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Sep. 13, 2019 at 7:56 a.m.

#22

Trickster

hey look a squirrel

Joined: May 2018

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Great read, thank you all for your thoughts.
Excellent points by everyone.

I am okay with Marner being in Eurpoe for this entire season.

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Sep. 13, 2019 at 8:17 a.m.

#23

palhal

LongtimeLeafsufferer

Joined: Jul. 2015

Posts: 59,429

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Quoting: blowing_the_zone

I suppose this is kinda fair. But to flip the coin and look at the othe side,, Mitch is 22 and not 16.

Just to add to your story.

Let's just say, the Leafs and Marner relationship is fractured and at some point in his career he plays for other teams. Just another player chasing the last dollar.

Seventy years from now, when Marner sitting in his nursing home (it's a nice one). He has made so much money couldn't spend it all when he played in the league and in 2090 he can't spend it either. I wonder he will look back wondering " I could've been a Leaf for life and made 20m less." Does that 20m really matter?
We've seen how long term Leafs are held in esteem.....Baun, Sittler, Salming, Clarke, Sundin. And most of those guys never won a Cup.

Not that I'm saying that Marner should take a hometown discount, but the Leafs are under no obligation to pay him a hometown premium (in their eyes).

PS. Apparently Sid Crosby net worth is about 160m, and that comes from making a paltry 8.7m contract. Not saying Marner can capitalize as much on Crosby on "his name" but maybe he could. Just saying whether a player makes 11.634m or 10.5m a year, it really shouldn't affect his overall lifetime wealth.

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Sep. 13, 2019 at 8:50 a.m.

#24

Jangle29

Joined: Apr. 2016

Posts: 3,019

Likes: 830

This all would be just easily settled with Arbitration which is what should have been included after the ELC, but never was

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Sep. 13, 2019 at 9:04 a.m.

#25

oneX

Joined: Mar. 2019

Posts: 2,770

Likes: 2,619

I tried to quote @palhal but not sure why wasn't working. That last paragraph you wrote....it's baffling to think Marner, or his dad...agent...whoever could be so petty.
Sorry...I say petty because in my life there's no difference between 8 million and 11 million....these are numbers in dollars I doubt I will ever see. That last line tho...such truth.

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