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Philadelphia Flyers signed Ivan Provorov (6 Years / $6,750,000 AAV)

Was this a good signing?
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Sep 12 at 8:27
#1
Ivan Provorov has signed a new contract with the Philadelphia Flyers.
STANDARD CONTRACT
COMPARE THIS CONTRACT
LENGTH: 6 YEARS
EXPIRY STATUS: UFA
SIGNING TEAM: Philadelphia FlyersPhiladelphia Flyers
VALUE: $40,500,000
C.H.% : 8.28
SIGNING DATE: September 12, 2019
SEASONCLAUSECAP HIT AAV P. BONUSES S. BONUSES BASE SALARY TOTAL SALARY MINORS SALARY
2019-20$6,750,000$6,750,000$0$0$6,750,000$6,750,000$6,750,000
2020-21$6,750,000$6,750,000$0$2,000,000$2,750,000$4,750,000$4,750,000
2021-22$6,750,000$6,750,000$0$3,000,000$4,125,000$7,125,000$7,125,000
2022-23$6,750,000$6,750,000$0$2,000,000$2,750,000$4,750,000$4,750,000
2023-24$6,750,000$6,750,000$0$3,000,000$5,500,000$8,500,000$8,500,000
2024-25$6,750,000$6,750,000$0$2,000,000$6,625,000$8,625,000$8,625,000
TOTAL$40,500,000$40,500,000$0$12,000,000$28,500,000$40,500,000$40,500,000
Sep 12 at 8:28
#2
Joined: Feb 2019
Posts: 42
Likes: 32
Hoping for a little less because of his down year, but should be a steal later on.
Sep 12 at 8:30
#3
Quebec GM v4
Joined: Mar 2017
Posts: 9,279
Likes: 2,205
Deal makes sense for both sides. A bridge would have walked him back to RFA again with Zach Werenski and based on how the RFA market landscape is changing, not really sure if someone of Provorov's caliber and potential is worth having a hold out over. A longer term deal would have been disastrous for the team if he has a setback like last year, or doesn't firmly become Philadelphia's best defensemen. Good AAV and good term.
BuFfaLOFaN liked this.
Sep 12 at 8:36
#4
Marner Kermit Fetish
Joined: Sep 2018
Posts: 1,105
Likes: 392
proverov put up 26 points. marner put up 96. according to paul marner, this means he should get around 23 mil aav for 20 years
Sep 12 at 8:44
#5
BOLT LOVER
Joined: Dec 2018
Posts: 1,625
Likes: 280
Good for both sidses
Sep 12 at 8:45
#6
Formerly klondikebar
Joined: Mar 2019
Posts: 3,017
Likes: 1,487
Imagine a world where Kevin Hayes makes more than Ivan Provorov
habs_fan123, BlueSeeker, rollie1967 and 13 others liked this.
Sep 12 at 8:46
#7
AwesomeMatthews
Joined: May 2018
Posts: 694
Likes: 529
Surprised Fletcher got him to sign for less then 7 mill
SpaghettiPasta, AndrewLadd, hawksfan881965 and 2 others liked this.
Sep 12 at 8:47
#8
I just need sauce
Joined: Oct 2017
Posts: 2,044
Likes: 819
Quoting: Hurricanes73
proverov put up 26 points. marner put up 96. according to paul marner, this means he should get around 23 mil aav for 20 years


*4
BuFfaLOFaN and RawDeal liked this.
Sep 12 at 8:56
#9
The evil stats guy
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 4,256
Likes: 1,791
He needs to substantially improve to earn this deal but I like the upside for it. For now it is a no (would have gone with a bridge although it seems like that would be high AAV as well) but I think there is a good chance this ends well.
rebecca, The_Madhawk, Sportnilsson and 3 others liked this.
Sep 12 at 9:04
#10
Joined: May 2018
Posts: 3,123
Likes: 559
I remember when people would make fun of me and say he'd get 7.5-8 when id make flyers posts
Sep 12 at 9:16
#11
habs_fan
Joined: Jan 2018
Posts: 2,455
Likes: 488
this is good idc what anyone says this is goodddd
Sep 12 at 9:53
#12
Joined: Apr 2017
Posts: 266
Likes: 168
Edited Sep 12 at 10:01
A bit of an overpay. Not that it couldn’t be a contract with value one day - but if Proverov doesn’t continue to improve (and markedly so compared to last season) - then it could be an anchor for an above-average 2nd pairing or below-average 1st pairing D-Man.

Regarding McAvoy. Because he is technically not a RFA (due to insufficient NHL time), his leverage is much less. While a better player, I don’t see him getting quite this much money from Boston - partly because of his situation and partly due to Boston’s cap crunch. If he wants 6y it won’t be above $6.5M - because of this I think a 2y deal (for about $4-4.5M) is most likely with a similar length for fellow blueliner Carlo.
Chopper02 liked this.
Sep 12 at 9:54
#13
Discord COL's GM
Joined: Mar 2018
Posts: 6,649
Likes: 1,768
It's a good contract. I'm just hoping this "down year" isn't a sign of him falling off the earth. I don't think it will be a fall off the earth, but it definitely isn't what I was expecting. I had him getting a straight 6M for 4-5 Years instead, but it's still a great contract nonetheless.
Sep 12 at 9:55
#14
Discord COL's GM
Joined: Mar 2018
Posts: 6,649
Likes: 1,768
Quoting: rebecca
A bit of an overpay. Not that it couldn’t be a contract with value one day - but if Proverov doesn’t continue to improve (and markedly so compared to last season) - then it could be an anchor for an above-average 2nd pairing or below-average 1st pairing D-Man.


Could, but he is only 22. He definitely still has a lot of room to grow and needs the room to grow. I think you are right tad overpaid, but it's still looking into the future for the deal.
rebecca and oneX liked this.
Sep 12 at 10:04
#15
Joined: Dec 2017
Posts: 1,735
Likes: 716
Quoting: Couturier
Hoping for a little less because of his down year, but should be a steal later on.


He would've been $8M+ if he did last season what he did in 2017-18. I like this deal better than the Morrissey deal. Provorov is already a true #1 D. He's way too talented not to bounce back in a huge way, especially w/ an improved Flyers team around him. This is easily one of my favorite RFA signings this summer. And I despise PHI.
Sep 12 at 10:09
#16
Joined: Dec 2017
Posts: 1,735
Likes: 716
Quoting: rebecca
A bit of an overpay. Not that it couldn’t be a contract with value one day - but if Proverov doesn’t continue to improve (and markedly so compared to last season) - then it could be an anchor for an above-average 2nd pairing or below-average 1st pairing D-Man.

Regarding McAvoy. Because he is technically not a RFA (due to insufficient NHL time), his leverage is much less. While a better player, I don’t see him getting quite this much money from Boston - partly because of his situation and partly due to Boston’s cap crunch. If he wants 6y it won’t be above $6.5M - because of this I think a 2y deal (for about $4-4.5M) is most likely with a similar length for fellow blueliner Carlo.


Provorov's deal seems to have higher upside than Morrissey's, but w/ a little more risk. I think I'd take Provorov straight up over Morrissey any day though. He's also 2 years younger.
Sep 12 at 10:36
#17
Joined: Apr 2017
Posts: 266
Likes: 168
Edited Sep 12 at 10:46
Quoting: Brian2016
Provorov's deal seems to have higher upside than Morrissey's, but w/ a little more risk. I think I'd take Provorov straight up over Morrissey any day though. He's also 2 years younger.


Technically speaking, when comparing these contracts, Morrissey is actually 3y older (as this contract doesn’t kick in until 2020/21). For $500,000 *more* the Flyers are getting 2 *fewer* years although you could argue that the last 2 years of Morrissey’s contract could be the least valuable as he could start declining by then (age 31/32).

I’d agree in general with your assessment - that the Morrissey contract is safer but has less potential maximum upside. That said I think the likelihood of there being a net positive from the contract is much greater with Morrissey. He’s already worth that much - arguably more - so that makes its value more solid.

Provorov is unequivocally not worth that much now and thus has to continue to improve to even have the contract break even. That said, he has a high pedigree and is still considered on track to be a decent - but no longer elite - top pairing defender. His ceiling is still a titch above Morrissey’s but Morrissey is much closer to his ceiling than Provorov (thus more likely to reach it). If Provorov meets these lofty expectations then it’s a win. *If*.

If I had to put numbers on it, would look something like this:

Provorov contract massive bargain - 12%
Morrissey contract massive bargain - 4%

Provorov contract significant bargain - 22%
Morrissey contract significant bargain - 52%

Provorov contract fair value - 28%
Morrissey contract fair value - 32%

Provorov contract significant anchor - 28%
Morrissey contract significant anchor - 10%

Provorov contract massive anchor - 10%
Morrissey contract massive anchor - 2%

Likelihood of contract being an anchor?
Morrissey 12%
Provorov 38% (> 3x)

I think that’s why Provorov’s contract has about 3x the “No’s” as Morrissey. That said the potential for Provorov’s contract to be a massive bargain is greater (also by 3x). However the likelihood of such a good outcome happening occurs only 8% of the time vs 25% of the time for either contract being a bust. So pick which is more important? The Provorov deal is just too risky for my tastes in a cap world.
Brian2016, oneX, toque and 1 other person liked this.
Sep 12 at 10:51
#18
Joined: Dec 2017
Posts: 1,735
Likes: 716
Quoting: rebecca
Technically speaking, when comparing these contracts, Morrissey is actually 3y older (as this contract doesn’t kick in until 2020/21). For $500,000 *more* the Flyers are getting 2 *fewer* years although you could argue that the last 2 years of Morrissey’s contract could be the least valuable as he could start declining by then (age 31/32).

I’d agree in general with your assessment - that the Morrissey contract is safer but has less potential maximum upside. That said I think the likelihood of there being a net positive from the contract is much greater with Morrissey. He’s already worth that much - arguably more - so that makes its value more solid.

Provorov is unequivocally not worth that much now and thus has to continue to improve to even have the contract break even. That said, he has a high pedigree and is still considered on track to be a decent - but no longer elite - top pairing defender. His ceiling is still a titch above Morrissey’s but Morrissey is much closer to his ceiling than Provorov (thus more likely to reach it). If Provorov meets these lofty expectations then it’s a win. *If*.

If I had to put numbers on it, would look something like this:

Provorov contract massive bargain - 12%
Morrissey contract massive bargain - 4%

Provorov contract significant bargain - 22%
Morrissey contract significant bargain - 52%

Provorov contract fair value - 28%
Morrissey contract fair value - 32%

Provorov contract significant anchor - 28%
Morrissey contract significant anchor - 10%

Provorov contract massive anchor - 10%
Morrissey contract massive anchor - 2%

Likelihood of contract being an anchor?
Morrissey 12%
Provorov 38% (> 3x)

I think that’s why Provorov’s contract has about 3x the “No’s” as Morrissey. That said the potential for Provorov’s contract to be a massive bargain is greater (also by 3x). However the likelihood of such a good outcome happening occurs only 8% of the time vs 25% of the time for either contract being a bust. So pick which is more important? The Provorov deal is just too risky for my tastes in a cap world.


Also gotta take into account the fact that Morrissey should see substantial exposure to WPG's elite forwards both at 5on5 and on the PP. His offensive numbers should probably be higher than Provorov's assuming Ghostesbehere retains the #1 PP role. Maybe it's just b/c I've seen Provorov a lit more on tv and in person b/c the Flyers play the Devils 4 times a year and PHI gets more national TV exposure, but I just think he's the total package of 2-way skill, physicality, and high hockey IQ. Before his regression last season I thought he was a future Norris contender...He still might be, but who knows.
Sep 12 at 10:52
#19
Joined: Dec 2017
Posts: 1,735
Likes: 716
Quoting: rebecca
Technically speaking, when comparing these contracts, Morrissey is actually 3y older (as this contract doesn’t kick in until 2020/21). For $500,000 *more* the Flyers are getting 2 *fewer* years although you could argue that the last 2 years of Morrissey’s contract could be the least valuable as he could start declining by then (age 31/32).

I’d agree in general with your assessment - that the Morrissey contract is safer but has less potential maximum upside. That said I think the likelihood of there being a net positive from the contract is much greater with Morrissey. He’s already worth that much - arguably more - so that makes its value more solid.

Provorov is unequivocally not worth that much now and thus has to continue to improve to even have the contract break even. That said, he has a high pedigree and is still considered on track to be a decent - but no longer elite - top pairing defender. His ceiling is still a titch above Morrissey’s but Morrissey is much closer to his ceiling than Provorov (thus more likely to reach it). If Provorov meets these lofty expectations then it’s a win. *If*.

If I had to put numbers on it, would look something like this:

Provorov contract massive bargain - 12%
Morrissey contract massive bargain - 4%

Provorov contract significant bargain - 22%
Morrissey contract significant bargain - 52%

Provorov contract fair value - 28%
Morrissey contract fair value - 32%

Provorov contract significant anchor - 28%
Morrissey contract significant anchor - 10%

Provorov contract massive anchor - 10%
Morrissey contract massive anchor - 2%

Likelihood of contract being an anchor?
Morrissey 12%
Provorov 38% (> 3x)

I think that’s why Provorov’s contract has about 3x the “No’s” as Morrissey. That said the potential for Provorov’s contract to be a massive bargain is greater (also by 3x). However the likelihood of such a good outcome happening occurs only 8% of the time vs 25% of the time for either contract being a bust. So pick which is more important? The Provorov deal is just too risky for my tastes in a cap world.


Nice analysis btw.
Sep 12 at 11:03
#20
Joined: Apr 2017
Posts: 266
Likes: 168
Quoting: Brian2016
Also gotta take into account the fact that Morrissey should see substantial exposure to WPG's elite forwards both at 5on5 and on the PP. His offensive numbers should probably be higher than Provorov's assuming Ghostesbehere retains the #1 PP role. Maybe it's just b/c I've seen Provorov a lit more on tv and in person b/c the Flyers play the Devils 4 times a year and PHI gets more national TV exposure, but I just think he's the total package of 2-way skill, physicality, and high hockey IQ. Before his regression last season I thought he was a future Norris contender...He still might be, but who knows.


And perhaps I’m bias being in Toronto and watching the Jets (tho not as often as I like as late game is usually the Canucks 🙄 on CBC) on Saturday nights (Hockey Night in Canada).

There is merit in choosing the Provorov deal over the Morrissey deal, don’t get me wrong. Both are being paid at what will be “bargains” for a top pair D-Man in a few years time. And they could be more even. So there is value to be had.

Provorov could still be a Top-30 defender one day in the NHL but he’s got a ways to go. Morrissey is already there, IMHO, as a top pair LD and in the “Top-30” conversation.

Morrissey actually doesn’t see a tonne of PP time - significantly less than Provorov in fact. Last season Morrissey had 103m and in 17/18 just 26m. Provorov has averaged almost 140m per season on the PP thru his first 3 seasons. Just for comparison.

And thank you. 🤓🤷🏼‍♀️
toque liked this.
Sep 12 at 11:13
#21
Joined: Apr 2017
Posts: 266
Likes: 168
Quoting: Brian2016
Also gotta take into account the fact that Morrissey should see substantial exposure to WPG's elite forwards both at 5on5 and on the PP. His offensive numbers should probably be higher than Provorov's assuming Ghostesbehere retains the #1 PP role. Maybe it's just b/c I've seen Provorov a lit more on tv and in person b/c the Flyers play the Devils 4 times a year and PHI gets more national TV exposure, but I just think he's the total package of 2-way skill, physicality, and high hockey IQ. Before his regression last season I thought he was a future Norris contender...He still might be, but who knows.


Also, Dom Luszczyszyn at The Athletic in his annual team previews/rankings grades Provorov out as a 0.9 on his Game Score whereas Morrissey is a 1.6. It’s behind a paywall, but it’s a very rigorous analysis (accounts for scoring contributions and expected goals for/against primarily as well as other things and corrected for age curves). It’s weighted with the most recent season in account, so that doesn’t help Provorov, but it shows that Morrissey is a top pair (but not elite) option whereas Provorov is a solid 2nd Pair guy (over the past 3y).
Bill_Karsen and Brian2016 liked this.
Sep 13 at 1:33
#22
Joined: Dec 2017
Posts: 1,735
Likes: 716
Quoting: rebecca
Also, Dom Luszczyszyn at The Athletic in his annual team previews/rankings grades Provorov out as a 0.9 on his Game Score whereas Morrissey is a 1.6. It’s behind a paywall, but it’s a very rigorous analysis (accounts for scoring contributions and expected goals for/against primarily as well as other things and corrected for age curves). It’s weighted with the most recent season in account, so that doesn’t help Provorov, but it shows that Morrissey is a top pair (but not elite) option whereas Provorov is a solid 2nd Pair guy (over the past 3y).


Interesting. I like analytics, but the eye test tells me a lot too. This coming season will also reveal a lot, especially if Provorov bounces back.
DDoverChucky liked this.
Sep 13 at 2:20
#23
GM67
Joined: Jul 2015
Posts: 255
Likes: 86
Quoting: AndrewLadd
Imagine a world where Kevin Hayes makes more than Ivan Provorov


Exactly!!! Hilarious
Sep 13 at 2:22
#24
GM67
Joined: Jul 2015
Posts: 255
Likes: 86
It's a good contract if he produces like he is expected to produce. Smooth skating scoring defensemen are always overpaid in today's market so looking him up long term is a team smart deal and he should be MORE than elated with this contract. He is overpaid so he should be smiling like a Butchers' Dog.
Sep 13 at 7:02
#25
Joined: Apr 2018
Posts: 178
Likes: 102
Quoting: AndrewLadd
Imagine a world where Kevin Hayes makes more than Ivan Provorov


looool
AndrewLadd liked this.
 
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