Forums/NHL Signings

Philadelphia Flyers signed Ivan Provorov (6 Years / $6,750,000 AAV)

Was this a good signing?
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Sep 13 at 8:48
#26
Joined: Jul 2016
Posts: 10,940
Likes: 2,068
Quoting: rebecca
Technically speaking, when comparing these contracts, Morrissey is actually 3y older (as this contract doesn’t kick in until 2020/21). For $500,000 *more* the Flyers are getting 2 *fewer* years although you could argue that the last 2 years of Morrissey’s contract could be the least valuable as he could start declining by then (age 31/32).

I’d agree in general with your assessment - that the Morrissey contract is safer but has less potential maximum upside. That said I think the likelihood of there being a net positive from the contract is much greater with Morrissey. He’s already worth that much - arguably more - so that makes its value more solid.

Provorov is unequivocally not worth that much now and thus has to continue to improve to even have the contract break even. That said, he has a high pedigree and is still considered on track to be a decent - but no longer elite - top pairing defender. His ceiling is still a titch above Morrissey’s but Morrissey is much closer to his ceiling than Provorov (thus more likely to reach it). If Provorov meets these lofty expectations then it’s a win. *If*.

If I had to put numbers on it, would look something like this:

Provorov contract massive bargain - 12%
Morrissey contract massive bargain - 4%

Provorov contract significant bargain - 22%
Morrissey contract significant bargain - 52%

Provorov contract fair value - 28%
Morrissey contract fair value - 32%

Provorov contract significant anchor - 28%
Morrissey contract significant anchor - 10%

Provorov contract massive anchor - 10%
Morrissey contract massive anchor - 2%

Likelihood of contract being an anchor?
Morrissey 12%
Provorov 38% (> 3x)

I think that’s why Provorov’s contract has about 3x the “No’s” as Morrissey. That said the potential for Provorov’s contract to be a massive bargain is greater (also by 3x). However the likelihood of such a good outcome happening occurs only 8% of the time vs 25% of the time for either contract being a bust. So pick which is more important? The Provorov deal is just too risky for my tastes in a cap world.


So Provy has one down year and all of a sudden he doesn't have elite potential? Can you elaborate as to how that is the case?
Sep 13 at 11:26
#27
Joined: May 2015
Posts: 15,807
Likes: 3,839
Good contract! It seems the RFA dmen are more ready to take contracts similar to the previous era than the RFA forwards are.

I wonder if a 7 or 8 year deal was even on the table and what the AAV Provy would have wanted to take it? If we're talking 7.5M, I would have given it to him now.
Sep 13 at 11:28
#28
Joined: May 2019
Posts: 399
Likes: 175
I think its a fair deal for both sides. He might be a little overpaid in the first couple years as a fringe top pairing defender while he works on the defensive side of the game, but over the last four he should be an amazing bargain as his offensive upside is this quite high. Comparing Morrissey's deal to his, it shows that the league still pays more for offense (Morrissey v. Provorov (3 year)).
Sep 13 at 11:52
#29
Joined: Apr 2017
Posts: 266
Likes: 168
Quoting: DirtyDangles
So Provy has one down year and all of a sudden he doesn't have elite potential? Can you elaborate as to how that is the case?


That’s the take by Corey Pronman, who travels the world and ranks prospects and young players. Over the past few years his impression of Provorov has gone down a notch. He may not be elite (Top-10 D in the NHL) but he can still be a very serviceable top pairing defender and, should he get there, then this is a great contract. It’s just that he has a ways to go. As per my later post, looking at his overall game, scoring, play driving, and ability to suppress scoring chances, he’s at the level of an average 2nd pairing defenseman as it stands right now.
toque liked this.
Sep 13 at 2:43
#30
Jets
Joined: Apr 2018
Posts: 613
Likes: 480
Quoting: rebecca
Technically speaking, when comparing these contracts, Morrissey is actually 3y older (as this contract doesn’t kick in until 2020/21). For $500,000 *more* the Flyers are getting 2 *fewer* years although you could argue that the last 2 years of Morrissey’s contract could be the least valuable as he could start declining by then (age 31/32).

I’d agree in general with your assessment - that the Morrissey contract is safer but has less potential maximum upside. That said I think the likelihood of there being a net positive from the contract is much greater with Morrissey. He’s already worth that much - arguably more - so that makes its value more solid.

Provorov is unequivocally not worth that much now and thus has to continue to improve to even have the contract break even. That said, he has a high pedigree and is still considered on track to be a decent - but no longer elite - top pairing defender. His ceiling is still a titch above Morrissey’s but Morrissey is much closer to his ceiling than Provorov (thus more likely to reach it). If Provorov meets these lofty expectations then it’s a win. *If*.

If I had to put numbers on it, would look something like this:

Provorov contract massive bargain - 12%
Morrissey contract massive bargain - 4%

Provorov contract significant bargain - 22%
Morrissey contract significant bargain - 52%

Provorov contract fair value - 28%
Morrissey contract fair value - 32%

Provorov contract significant anchor - 28%
Morrissey contract significant anchor - 10%

Provorov contract massive anchor - 10%
Morrissey contract massive anchor - 2%

Likelihood of contract being an anchor?
Morrissey 12%
Provorov 38% (> 3x)

I think that’s why Provorov’s contract has about 3x the “No’s” as Morrissey. That said the potential for Provorov’s contract to be a massive bargain is greater (also by 3x). However the likelihood of such a good outcome happening occurs only 8% of the time vs 25% of the time for either contract being a bust. So pick which is more important? The Provorov deal is just too risky for my tastes in a cap world.


Awesome analysis. If I could like your post twice I would. The hockey nerd in me thanks you 🤓
rebecca liked this.
Sep 13 at 4:52
#31
BtZ's buttercup
Joined: May 2018
Posts: 2,610
Likes: 1,407
Knew hed get more than Werenski.
Surprised the term is 6 years.
Sep 13 at 6:45
#32
Joined: Jan 2019
Posts: 2,224
Likes: 844
I feel like Philadelphia is going to end up regretting this one. If he can return to what he was in year 2, it's worth it. but 6.75 Million for 26 Points and a -16? damn
Sep 13 at 7:37
#33
Joined: Jul 2016
Posts: 10,940
Likes: 2,068
Quoting: rebecca
That’s the take by Corey Pronman, who travels the world and ranks prospects and young players. Over the past few years his impression of Provorov has gone down a notch. He may not be elite (Top-10 D in the NHL) but he can still be a very serviceable top pairing defender and, should he get there, then this is a great contract. It’s just that he has a ways to go. As per my later post, looking at his overall game, scoring, play driving, and ability to suppress scoring chances, he’s at the level of an average 2nd pairing defenseman as it stands right now.


And how were his numbers the previous year? The guy has proven he can be elite so for anyone to claim he won’t be is asinine.
Sep 13 at 8:23
#34
Joined: Jan 2019
Posts: 2,224
Likes: 844
Quoting: DirtyDangles
And how were his numbers the previous year? The guy has proven he can be elite so for anyone to claim he won’t be is asinine.


Just because he put up 45 points doesn't mean he can do that again. The likeliness is high, but he was pretty bad last year.
Sep 13 at 11:10
#35
Joined: Jul 2016
Posts: 10,940
Likes: 2,068
Quoting: HabsForEver
Just because he put up 45 points doesn't mean he can do that again. The likeliness is high, but he was pretty bad last year.


So was the whole team...
Sep 14 at 3:20
#36
Go Boltz! & Go Avs!
Joined: Nov 2018
Posts: 189
Likes: 46
Edited Sep 14 at 3:28
Quoting: DirtyDangles
And how were his numbers the previous year? The guy has proven he can be elite so for anyone to claim he won’t be is asinine.


Hi mate, don't be mad at others, because they have different opinions, than you. Just chill. cheers
Believe it or not, some Tampa fans thinking on this site:
Stamkos = worst player on the rooster, they want to trade him asap and i can't convince them otherwise ever...
Even though i've just seen coupkle hours ago an "All-Star team" of the decade list on a popular hockey site: Stamkos was in "Top 5 Centers of 2010-2020 era" there... with Crosby,McDavid and others... So what can you do about these forum posters...

So anyways, believe me, i analyzed this guy and watched him a couple of times and for me this was the hardest offseason signing to evaluate by far. I still can't really decide, but i tried my best.
I tried to check every advanced stat on countless of sites, and basically all of them showed the same results: Provorov = not an elite player.
In fact the results showed in last 2 years = really far from elite player. I would say mediocre, if i don't see his name, i would think i'm just checking some random 2-3 mill $ D stats from the NHL...

However, after thinking a lot about this player in general and looked up other players with similar age and results, also some russian defenders.
I arrived at the conclusion as rebecca did with his analysis = not elite yet, and have huge risk in this signing.

However for some reason, i feel like a twist is coming in this case in the next 3 years and he will put up a lot of points and learns to defend well. So even though at this point it looks like it's not worth the money:
I would say it's worth it in the long run.nod

I based my prediction on this season:
Brandon Wheat Kings-WHL: 62gm---21goals---52assists---73 points
And the best thing: +64 on the plus-minus chart! Also in the playoffs that year he played pretty good as well.

However, if he didn't improved drastically in the first 3 years of this contract, i wouldn't say anymore any positive things about him and this contract, and just consider him an alright defender.
And a bad contract then...
I wouldn't bet too much money for improvements on year 4-6 of this contract, if the first 3 years shows no huge improvements. But that's probably not happening, so drop this narrative.


So i'm not saying he will become the next Hedman, or come close to winning the Norris... but i think he would be one day a top20-25 D in the NHL.
So not the best of the elites, but still pretty damn good = really good value for Philadelphia Flyers with this signing overall.

And the question will be: How much will he get with his next contract on UFA market after the 6 years expired?
And teams will probably overpay a lot of money for him... (10 mill $ +).
So i voted yes on this poll afterall... We'll see soon, who were right...

Also i have a question for you, do you think your team makes the playoffs in the 2019/2020 season or not?
In my preseason predictions: i put philly into top5 in metro = playoffs--->i have them go to round2 of the playoffs---> then lose there.
I wonder what's your expectations for the upcoming season? I expect your last RFA signed before season starts ofc...

One of my favourite matchups of the last season was:
Tampa Bay Lightning vs Philadelphia Flyers

We had 2 crazy games vs philly, they were sooo much fun:
We are leading 5-1 in philly and only !!! 10 minutes left in the game, then you guys comeback to 5-5, then we win in overtime 6-5. We got lucky haha... applaud

Next game in tampa, like 1 month later:
We are leading 5-2 in this match, im telling myself: okay we learned from the mistakes last time, easy win... We are at home, what can go wrong...?
...Then you guys comeback again tears of joy tears of joy tears of joy to 5-5, then we win again 6-5 in overtime. cheers popcorn

In handsight those 2 matches were a sign for the postseason failure:
Leading vs Columbus Blue Jackets 3-0 1st period, then lose the game AT HOME... then lose the next 3 games as well... 0-4 RIP dreams, RIP historic seasoncry
Sep 14 at 8:04
#37
Joined: May 2019
Posts: 46
Likes: 10
That much for him?
Sep 15 at 12:26
#38
Joined: Sep 2019
Posts: 3
Likes: 0
Provorov has had bad possession stats all his career especially last year but considering how he can transition in and out of the zone plus limit some chances before getting into his own end (his problem is just puck possession is poor). I don’t like it but I wouldn’t e surprised if he got good before the end of this contract
 
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