Training camp + Nylander pressure?
From 10 million $ @ 6 years offer leaked in last months ---> 10.9 million $ @ 6 years = Big loss For Dubas, and i expected it... that's the worst part...
Here is my own comment on August 3rd in a random topic: It's long, so sorry for anyone, who doesn't like to read long messages... but i think it's worth the read, if u followed this "saga" for a while...
I got it right exactly haha, except 1-2 weeks earlier it happend, because pressure from media+fans+ newest leak few days ago about 7-8 years contract.
Alright folks, i have avoided for a couple of weeks the lots of news about Marner's contract, but now i dived deep into it.
So his agent turned down so far:
10-11 mill $$$ @ 8 years
10 mill $$$ @ 3 years (it turned out later -> Shannahan was who didn't accept this)
From the newest article it seems, they are(Marner's agent) not accepting anything over 5 years. However the problem is that Toronto doesn't want to give Marner 5 years, because of the Matthews contract.
So 5,(6),7,8 years are basically done at this point, unless Toronto willing to give ~ 11 mill+, which seems like not the case for now from these around ~ 10 mill offers at various years, they just want to avoid anything over 11mill, and its understandable.
11 mill @ 6 years = overpayment, and what if Marner's agent says no to that as well. So in the end they should offer 11.6 mill @ 6 years? Hell no, thats almost Matthews contract, so for Marners agent = Colossal win.
So lets examine 4 years = UFA = BIG NO from toronto
So all that's left is 1,2,3 years:
1 year seems silly , so next year they start this again, jeez, hell no.
2 years = little better but i think its still not that much, and Marner's agent for 2 years would need to accept even less money, since more years = more money in general. So i think 2 years seems unlikely at this point, but not impossible.
Which brings us to the most likely scenario:
3 years Bridge deal & RFA status after the contracts is expired = negotiations starting again.
So now about the $$$, they don't want to give 11 million, so 10.3-10.8 millions between.
Next offer from Toronto: 10.2-10.4 mill @ 3 years in August. But i think Marner's agent says, no thanks.
Next offer after that 10.4-10.6 mill @ 3 years after September. Probably still no from Marner's agent. Because they really like the 5 years term. So they say no to 3 years unless its really close to Matthews's money.
But here comes the problem, Toronto would need to make moves, to offer more since they have roughly that cap space if i have correct informations from these LTIR cap space. But a little help from additional injuries: +Dermott+Hyman, also LTIR.
So maybe they can offer one last try before season starts(or soon after season starts): ALL-IN from Toronto, take it or leave it deal type:
~ 10.75 million $$$ @ 3 years
That's my current guess, and it would be not good for Toronto, and a huge-huge win for Marner's agent, since Kucherov couple years ago after 60-70 points season signed a " 4.8 mill @ 3 years" bridge deal.
Let's add inflation, more points and RFA market tendency changes(players want more money, than 3 years ago at young age RFA status), and taxes in toronto. That would be a fair deal: 9 mill @ 3 years.
So from 4.8 million $$$ ---> 10.75million $$$, do u guys see how crazy is this number? It was only 3 years ago!!! And it looks like its not far from reality at this point.
So one last possiblity, around october maybe Dubas says yes to 5-6 years, to save trouble with the 3 years contract in 2022 to renegotiate again: Then they offer a respectable 10.9 million offer. And agent also says yes to 6 years instead of 5.
10.9 mililon $$$ @ 6 years- so they get 1 more year after Matthews's contract expire. But Marner at the end still doesn't get Matthew's money, which is 11.63.
So it's a small mini-win for Dubas: More years & less money & Marner doesnt sit out except meaningless idk 5-10 games or less. It will hurt only for 3 years, after that it will be an alright contract.
Same with Vasilevsky in Tampa 9.5 million will be bad for next 3 seasons, after that max cap will rise(new tv deal, etc...) so what is now 10 million $$$ will look so much better, when the guys like Hayes getting 10mill+ as well. Yes i know thats UFA but still...
So far it looks like Marner's camp winning and 10.75 mill @ 3 years around type of deal has the highest chance of being reality.
I would say:
3 years - 50%
5 years - 10%
6 years - 30%
Rest 10% or less( like 9.5 mill @ 1 year)
Even though EW Contract Projections: 2019 spreadsheet says:
3 years chance = 2.2%
5 years chance = 20.8% - i would be schocked if its 5 years
6 years chance = 24.4%
8 years chance = 42.6% - this seems like currently under 1%
From these offers and projections you can clearly see, close to 0% chance of any amount of years contract under 10.2 million $$$.
Seems like Dubas is really giving him respectable offers...(not lowballing like Carolina did with Aho like around 6 million $ = offer sheet accepted)
So i'm truly surprised that Marner's agent rejected the 10 mill @ 3 years, so its must be over 10.5 mill what his agent willing to accept at 3-6 years. Can't wait to see the next rejected offer...
If Dubas pulls off anything under 10 million $$$ = Miracle
Good luck!
andddd sooooo the 1st domino falls...
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