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Post Marner RFA Forward Contracts

Highest Paid RFA (besides Marner?
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Sep. 13, 2019 at 10:05 p.m.
#1
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Wow! Smart agents who held out! RFA's just hit the jackpot when Marner signed for about $11M AAV. Who comes close? Point is a Center, but I don't think he cracks $10M. Tkachuk is a well-rounded complete player. I think he'll be well over $8M. But, when the dust settles, I think Marner's deal will still look like an overpay. Can the Leafs ever win the Cup w/ $40+M tied up on just 4 players? All of whom are Forwards, too. Also, did Dubas diminish an otherwise good summer by overpaying Marner (If you believe Marner was actually overpaid, some people don't)?

Any insights would be appreciated. Thanks!
Sep. 13, 2019 at 10:34 p.m.
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I was hoping for low 9's AAV for Rantanen on a 7 or 8 year deal but Marner blew that out of the water. I hope we can get Rantanen for low 10's now long term.

I think Point would be the highest paid, but will take a discount since he's in Tampa. If I had to pick the next highest AAV its Rantanen
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Sep. 13, 2019 at 11:32 p.m.
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LongtimeLeafsufferer
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Quoting: Brian2016
Wow! Smart agents who held out! RFA's just hit the jackpot when Marner signed for about $11M AAV. Who comes close? Point is a Center, but I don't think he cracks $10M. Tkachuk is a well-rounded complete player. I think he'll be well over $8M. But, when the dust settles, I think Marner's deal will still look like an overpay. Can the Leafs ever win the Cup w/ $40+M tied up on just 4 players? All of whom are Forwards, too. Also, did Dubas diminish an otherwise good summer by overpaying Marner (If you believe Marner was actually overpaid, some people don't)?

Any insights would be appreciated. Thanks!


While I do think the Leafs overpaid for their RFAs, the high price of premium RFAs and UFA might be the new norm. 40.5 for three young players and on mid age player, might be really bargain compared other teams were at 35m with a some aging players on long term contracts.
Hawks have 27.8 in Kane, Toews, Seabrook and Debricnat contact come next summer.....what that 35m. Kings have 34m in Kopitar, Doughty, Kovi and Brown. Sharks 26.5 in three aging Men. Just saying the Leafs and their top heavy cap just might not be that usual soon. Of course the secret to a successful team is being able to fill bottom half line-up with good value at low cap. Can the Leaf do that? They'll have to, but they won't be he only team that has to do it.
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Sep. 13, 2019 at 11:44 p.m.
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Quoting: moli92
I was hoping for low 9's AAV for Rantanen on a 7 or 8 year deal but Marner blew that out of the water. I hope we can get Rantanen for low 10's now long term.

I think Point would be the highest paid, but will take a discount since he's in Tampa. If I had to pick the next highest AAV its Rantanen


Agreed on Point. I'm thinking $9.5M for the full 8 years or maybe $8M for six years. Rantanen won't go for over $10M in my opinion. I just feel like there's a widely held opinion w/ fans and possibly within the Avs organization that Rantanen is only as good as MacKinnon makes him. Marner, on the other hand, is the top dog on Tavares' line and on the PP.
Sep. 13, 2019 at 11:52 p.m.
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Quoting: palhal
While I do think the Leafs overpaid for their RFAs, the high price of premium RFAs and UFA might be the new norm. 40.5 for three young players and on mid age player, might be really bargain compared other teams were at 35m with a some aging players on long term contracts.
Hawks have 27.8 in Kane, Toews, Seabrook and Debricnat contact come next summer.....what that 35m. Kings have 34m in Kopitar, Doughty, Kovi and Brown. Sharks 26.5 in three aging Men. Just saying the Leafs and their top heavy cap just might not be that usual soon. Of course the secret to a successful team is being able to fill bottom half line-up with good value at low cap. Can the Leaf do that? They'll have to, but they won't be he only team that has to do it.


I've been an ardent defender of Marner all summer. I like their team, but you're right about finding the right role players. I think WASH and STL won b/c their depth guys came up huge in the playoffs. I think they need one or two clutch, low cost vets and some added physicality on D and on their bottom six. Yes, they'll need to make a trade to become an elite team.
Sep. 14, 2019 at 12:09 a.m.
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Quoting: Brian2016
I've been an ardent defender of Marner all summer. I like their team, but you're right about finding the right role players. I think WASH and STL won b/c their depth guys came up huge in the playoffs. I think they need one or two clutch, low cost vets and some added physicality on D and on their bottom six. Yes, they'll need to make a trade to become an elite team.


Some fans criticized the Tavares UFA signing because it put the Leafs "over the cap". Let's say the Leafs are over the cap because of 2.5m because of Tavares. Remember Leafs signed Tavares for no assets exchanged So to be cap compliant and to make a better team. So the Leafs could trade 3.2m Kapanen an 3.4m Johnson...that gets rid of 6.6m minus 2.5, over the cap...Leafs have 4.1m in cap space. 1m to replace on eof the two traded and 3.1 for another player. The Leafs "traded". Kapanen and Johnson for a 1m player, a 3.1m player and Tavares. Leafs will take that.
The Leaf might feel they have 1m player with the Marlies and the 3.1m player is a dman. I'm agreeing with you the Leafs will have to make a trade. But if you have good assets on fair contracts then a deal can be done.
I mentioned Johnsson and Kapanen because they are very tradable due to their contracts and play. If Nylander plays well, his 7m front loaded contract could be traded for a really good Dman.
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Sep. 14, 2019 at 2:29 a.m.
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Quoting: palhal
Some fans criticized the Tavares UFA signing because it put the Leafs "over the cap". Let's say the Leafs are over the cap because of 2.5m because of Tavares. Remember Leafs signed Tavares for no assets exchanged So to be cap compliant and to make a better team. So the Leafs could trade 3.2m Kapanen an 3.4m Johnson...that gets rid of 6.6m minus 2.5, over the cap...Leafs have 4.1m in cap space. 1m to replace on eof the two traded and 3.1 for another player. The Leafs "traded". Kapanen and Johnson for a 1m player, a 3.1m player and Tavares. Leafs will take that.
The Leaf might feel they have 1m player with the Marlies and the 3.1m player is a dman. I'm agreeing with you the Leafs will have to make a trade. But if you have good assets on fair contracts then a deal can be done.
I mentioned Johnsson and Kapanen because they are very tradable due to their contracts and play. If Nylander plays well, his 7m front loaded contract could be traded for a really good Dman.


"Good assets on fair contracts." That's exactly how Tampa has been able to keep all of their superstars including Vas, Kucherov, Stamkos, Hedman, and eventually Point. They were able to trade Miller and actually get a good return on him. One difference is that Tampa's stars took team friendly deals, probably due at least in part b/c of the state tax exemption. TOR doesn't have that luxury, but they do have a plethora of young talent from which to wheel and deal. Kap and Johnsson in particular, as you said, are very attractive trade chips. If Nylander bounces back early on this season I'll include him in that category.
All that being said, the Leafs, as presently constituted, probably can't endure the physicality of a deep playoff run. I think the prospect of beating both TBL and BOS or FLA in the first two rounds is gonna prove exceptionally tough. But, I've been wrong before. I never thought WASH would get past PIT 2 years ago.
Sep. 14, 2019 at 8:46 a.m.
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Quoting: Brian2016
"Good assets on fair contracts."

From what I have investigated, this tax difference is kinda meangingless. If players were paying personal taxes on their income, I would agree but it's not at least not in Canada
I know folks harp on the physicality on why the Leafs lost the last two game 7s. IMO it was the usual poor game management of Babcock that cost the Leafs. And last year Gardiner and Dermot were rushed back from injuries and weren't as effective as they should have been.

Tampa although they team friendly contracts, I think we are going to see those NTC contracts are going to very detrimental starting next year. Valislesky has 6m raise next year and other RFAs need raises. and there isn't one player with a big contract that can't realistically block a trade.
Tampa has this reputation as a "great team". I don't see it. Since they drafted Hedman. 9 NHL seasons. 7 playoffs appearances, 9 playoff round wins. So even with all these stars, averaging one playoff round victory a season. Fair to good but hardly this NHL juggernaut.
You're right it's exceptionally tough for most teams to get past even the first round. You've mentioned the Metro division and the Atlantic. And Centra the ...Jets, Nashville, Blues, Avs. Making the playoffs...tough enough, then to win one round and a second...just to get to the semis...it's like it's a mathematical improbability.
Sep. 14, 2019 at 11:25 a.m.
#9
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LMAO THE LEAFS CAP IS SCREWED I LIVE FOR THIS SH*T.

Sorry I just had to laugh out loud a bit sorry for the overreaction smile.
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Sep. 14, 2019 at 12:34 p.m.
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Marner just destroyed the RFA market.
Sep. 14, 2019 at 4:42 p.m.
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Quoting: rangersandislesfan
Marner just destroyed the RFA market.


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Sep. 14, 2019 at 5:13 p.m.
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Isn't the Marner contract better than the Panarin contract? He's much younger and arguably almost as good already. And Panarin could've gotten more $$ w/ CBJ or NYI apparently.
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Sep. 14, 2019 at 8:29 p.m.
#13
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Edited Sep. 14, 2019 at 10:00 p.m.
Quoting: Brian2016
Isn't the Marner contract better than the Panarin contract? He's much younger and arguably almost as good already. And Panarin could've gotten more $$ w/ CBJ or NYI apparently.


I think it's just people are having trouble adjusting that RFAs are getting UFA money. Sure wish Marner and the other RFAs were getting less money but maybe that's not the way it is anymore. You made a great comparisons to Panarin, Another one might be Stone who signed as an upcoming UFA at 9.5m X 8 for that 27 year old. Marner might blow by him in value in Stone's final years of that deal.
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Sep. 15, 2019 at 12:01 a.m.
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Quoting: Brian2016
Isn't the Marner contract better than the Panarin contract? He's much younger and arguably almost as good already. And Panarin could've gotten more $$ w/ CBJ or NYI apparently.


marner was a RFA, Panarin was a UFA, so no the contract is not better when you are supposed to make much less as an RFA.
Sep. 15, 2019 at 4:54 a.m.
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Quoting: awesome
marner was a RFA, Panarin was a UFA, so no the contract is not better when you are supposed to make much less as an RFA.


Yeah, but why should a UFA make more money than an RFA? It should be the exact opposite since Marner is much younger and projects to be much, much better in 4 years than Panarin will be in 4 years.
Sep. 15, 2019 at 4:58 a.m.
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Quoting: palhal
I think it's just people are having trouble adjusting that RFAs are getting UFA money. Sure wish Marner and the other RFAs were getting less money but maybe that's not the way it is anymore. You made a great comparisons to Panarin, Another one might be Stone who signed as an upcoming UFA at 9.5m X 8 for that 27 year old. Marner might blow by him in value in Stone's final years of that deal.


After talking this whole thing out, I think I'm getting more and more comfortable w/ the Marner contract. He's a rising superstar in the league. He should be better 4-5 years from now than he is now. UFA's like Spurgeon and Panarin will almost certainly be worse.
Sep. 15, 2019 at 4:37 p.m.
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Quoting: Brian2016
Yeah, but why should a UFA make more money than an RFA? It should be the exact opposite since Marner is much younger and projects to be much, much better in 4 years than Panarin will be in 4 years.


because of what a rfa is, not about how they play. a restricted free agent is designed to have a lot less leverage than a ufa. rfa years always are supposed to be diminished in value compared to an equal player who would be a ufa
Sep. 15, 2019 at 6:24 p.m.
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Quoting: Brian2016
Isn't the Marner contract better than the Panarin contract? He's much younger and arguably almost as good already. And Panarin could've gotten more $$ w/ CBJ or NYI apparently.


The Panarin contract isn't great, but we didn't have to give up anything else for him. Marner took forever to sign just so he could get more money and he has destroyed the Leafs' cap and he made them trade more players. Same with Panarin, but not as much as Marner if you ask me.
Sep. 15, 2019 at 9:32 p.m.
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Quoting: rangersandislesfan
The Panarin contract isn't great, but we didn't have to give up anything else for him. Marner took forever to sign just so he could get more money and he has destroyed the Leafs' cap and he made them trade more players. Same with Panarin, but not as much as Marner if you ask me.


I liked the Panarin contract. He apparently took a discount to play for the Rangers. No way they were gonna pass on him. What I don't understand is that BOS key players, including McAvoy, all seem to balance out their financial goals with the team's goals. Clearly McAvoy is worth more than $5M, even on a bridge deal, but Bergeron, Pasta, and Marchand have all taken less money to play in a great market and compete for the Cup every year. None of TOR's star players have embraced that concept.
Sep. 15, 2019 at 11:48 p.m.
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Quoting: rangersandislesfan
The Panarin contract isn't great, but we didn't have to give up anything else for him. Marner took forever to sign just so he could get more money and he has destroyed the Leafs' cap and he made them trade more players. Same with Panarin, but not as much as Marner if you ask me.


Marner hasn't destroyed the Leafs cap. . It appears that many long term RFA contracts seem to be similar to UFAs, that the difference, But regardless of RFA or UFA, over the course the next six years you could certainly project Marner and Panarin are going to equal value on the ice. So why shouldn't Marner get nearly as much as Panarin? Leafs may be ahead of the curve . Soon we are going many team with top heavy salaries going to players whether UFAs or RFAs. The Ranger paid Trouba 8m a year as RFA making him at the 5th highest Dman in the league. Really think Trouba is the fifth best Dman?
You're right about the Bruins. But certainly players don't care about a teams structure or cap. Panarin, Trouba, Staal , Lundquvit. and the departed Shattenkirk will make 40m of Rangers cap next year. Leaf looks like scrooge in handing out cap compared to the Rangers,
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