Forums/Armchair-GM

Whats The Hype With This Team For

Created by: ForsbergForVezina
Initial Creation Date: Sep 28, 2019
Published: Sep 28 at 4:32 pm
Team: 2019-20 Colorado Avalanche
Team Explanation
Been waiting awhile to say this...

This team is really solid, but all offseason I've heard people hype them up like they're actually Cup contenders.

I'm not totally impressed with Makar, Burakovsky has never taken the next step in his development and Grubauer had a subpar season in 18-19 outside of the March and the playoffs. Kadri, Donskoi and Rosen are good additions, but don't make up for the losses of Soderberg, Kerfoot and especially Barrie. If Mikko Rantanen misses any significant period of time, that top line is no longer so intimidating, hurting the depth that this team has worked so hard to create. Furthermore, the goaltending depth beyond Grubauer is unimpressive; Francouz might end up being a good backup, but if Grubauer is injured or can't hold down the fort, I have no idea who they're going to turn to.

Realistically, I think Grubauer is good enough, Rantanen signs well before December 1st and Colorado sneaks into a wild card spot. But a full-on contender? I really just don't see it. Any thoughts? I want to hear some other opinions or flesh out mine a bit more.
Buyouts
  • Brooks Orpik: $1,500,000
Retained Salary Transactions
  • Tyson Barrie: $2,750,000 (50%)
DRAFT YEARROUND 1ROUND 2ROUND 3ROUND 4ROUND 5ROUND 6ROUND 7
2020
COL
TOR
COL
COL
FLA
COL
2021
COL
COL
COL
COL
COL
COL
COL
2022
COL
COL
COL
COL
COL
COL
COL
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES BONUSESCAP SPACE
23$81,500,000$65,884,761$0$3,532,500$15,615,239
Left WingCenterRight Wing
COL
Landeskog, Gabriel
$5,571,429
LW
NTC
UFA - 2
COL
MacKinnon, Nathan
$6,300,000
C, RW
UFA - 4
COL
Donskoi, Joonas
$3,900,000
RW
UFA - 4
COL
Burakovsky, André
$3,250,000
LW, RW
RFA - 1
COL
Kadri, Nazem
$4,500,000
C
NTC
UFA - 3
COL
Compher, J.T.
$3,500,000
RW, C
UFA - 4
COL
Calvert, Matt
$2,850,000
LW, RW
UFA - 2
COL
Wilson, Colin
$2,600,000
C, LW
UFA - 1
COL
Nieto, Matt
$1,975,000
LW, RW
UFA - 1
COL
Jost, Tyson
$885,833
C, LW, RW
RFA - 1
COL
Bellemare, Pierre-Édouard
$1,800,000
LW, C
UFA - 2
COL
Kamenev, Vladislav
$750,000
C
RFA - 1
COL
Nichushkin, Valeri
$850,000
LW, RW
RFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
COL
Cole, Ian
$4,250,000
LD
UFA - 2
COL
Johnson, Erik
$6,000,000
RD
NMC NTC
UFA - 4
COL
Grubauer, Philipp
$3,333,333
G
UFA - 2
COL
Zadorov, Nikita
$3,200,000
LD
RFA - 1
COL
Makar, Cale
$880,833
RD
RFA - 2
COL
Francouz, Pavel
$950,000
G
UFA - 1
COL
Barberio, Mark
$1,450,000
LD
UFA - 1
COL
Connauton, Kevin
$1,375,000
LD
UFA - 1
COL
Graves, Ryan
$735,000
LD
RFA - 1
COL
Girard, Samuel
$728,333
LD
UFA - 1

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Sep 28 at 5:24
#26
Joined: Jun 2015
Posts: 6,404
Likes: 1,597
Quoting: ForsbergForVezina
First off, that wasn't the only point I made....

Second off, I'm serious lol, you can't tell me that that run he was on last spring couldn't have affected his play. Maybe that's not the right way to phrase it, but I imagine he came into the playoffs a little more fresh, considering he played half as many games as his teammates and opponents.


It didn't bc everyone talked about how he is an unphased living in the moment guy, playing in the playoffs was business as usually for him, he said so himself and so did all of the other avs players who commented on how he was a pro pro coming into that situation.

So yeah its a pretty silly comment, you want to try to use some non quantifying statement and treat it like its a fact.
Sep 28 at 5:25
#27
Joined: Jul 2019
Posts: 252
Likes: 157
Quoting: coga16
My point is you are trying to throw a blanket statement on Makars ability bc you remember a shift or 2 that you thought Meier got the better of him....that doesn't mean a thing in determining how good a player can be defensively.


It shows that he isn't at that top pair level just yet (although he can/probably will be, since his potential is so great), so there is some cause for concern if he's already expected to play top 2 minutes for the whole year.
Sep 28 at 5:25
#28
Joined: Jun 2015
Posts: 6,404
Likes: 1,597
Quoting: MJC13
It shows that he isn't at that top pair level just yet (although he can/probably will be, since his potential is so great), so there is some cause for concern if he's already expected to play top 2 minutes for the whole year.


then Vlasic, Karlsson, Burns aren't top pairing level bc they were swimming multiple times that series bc of the Avs top line. Cant believe you have so many low level Dman bc they don't play perfect defence every shift and were getting beat sometimes
Sep 28 at 5:27
#29
Joined: Jul 2019
Posts: 252
Likes: 157
Quoting: coga16
then Vlasic, Karlsson, Burns aren't top pairing level bc they were swimming multiple times that series bc of the Avs top line. Cant believe you have so many low level Dman bc they don't play perfect defence every shift and were getting beat sometimes


This goes back to the whole "10 games" thing compared to how long those 3 have been at top level
Sep 28 at 5:29
#30
Sam
Joined: Jan 2018
Posts: 3,261
Likes: 1,178
Quoting: coga16
and what did the Avs do this offseason getting Kadri, Bura, Donskoi etc? guys that are solid possession player. Soderberg, Andrighetto, and Gabe Bourque are no longer there who are all black holes. I think I would take those 3 upgrades while still having top end offensive talent.


Soderberg drove offense and defense last year while also scoring like a low-end first liner. Kadri is certainly an upgrade, but I think losing Soderberg and Kerfoot will hurt more than you think. I’m okay with your defense and Makar should be excellent, but I think they’re a little too high-event for my liking. The point is, the Avs have the potential to be great, but have questions at pretty much every position which is why they’ll likely still be behind the Blues and Preds in the standings.
Sep 28 at 5:30
#31
Joined: Jun 2015
Posts: 6,404
Likes: 1,597
Quoting: MJC13
This goes back to the whole "10 games" thing compared to how long those 3 have been at top level


Didn't look top level at times despite playing 100s of games more.....were making the same if not more mistakes (Karlsson and Burns) than Makar. Oh thats why you don't rate players ability in a vacuum shift by shift thats why
Sep 28 at 5:32
#32
Joined: Jun 2015
Posts: 6,404
Likes: 1,597
Quoting: STLBlues17
Soderberg drove offense and defense last year while also scoring like a low-end first liner. Kadri is certainly an upgrade, but I think losing Soderberg and Kerfoot will hurt more than you think. I’m okay with your defense and Makar should be excellent, but I think they’re a little too high-event for my liking. The point is, the Avs have the potential to be great, but have questions at pretty much every position which is why they’ll likely still be behind the Blues and Preds in the standings.


Soderberg did nothing like that, sorry but he isn't great defensively, asked to do it and scraped by.

Kerfoots fancy stats and what he does on the ice do not align, he isn't some defensive wizard, I have no idea how his stats show that but he's the rarest thing away from selke level defensive despite what evolving wilds models show. He's a mystery....and leaf fans are already seeing thaw not, good twitter search him, him as a 3C, there is already the why does Kerfoot over pass and force plays giving up chances talk

Don't get me wrong they are both decent players but Kadri Donskoi are clear defensive upgrades over them while not really sacrificing offence to do so
Sep 28 at 5:40
#33
Sam
Joined: Jan 2018
Posts: 3,261
Likes: 1,178
Quoting: coga16
Soderberg did nothing like that, sorry but he isn't great defensively, asked to do it and scraped by.

Kerfoots fancy stats and what he does on the ice do not align, he isn't some defensive wizard, I have no idea how his stats show that but he's the rarest thing away from selke level defensive despite what evolving wilds models show. He's a mystery....and leaf fans are already seeing thaw not, good twitter search him, him as a 3C, there is already the why does Kerfoot over pass and force plays giving up chances talk

Don't get me wrong they are both decent players but Kadri Donskoi are clear defensive upgrades over them while not really sacrificing offence to do so


We’ll see, I’m expecting you guys to be good, but I’m not expecting them to go from 17th in the standings to a top-5 team like everyone else is.
Sep 28 at 5:43
#34
Joined: Jun 2015
Posts: 6,404
Likes: 1,597
Quoting: STLBlues17
We’ll see, I’m expecting you guys to be good, but I’m not expecting them to go from 17th in the standings to a top-5 team like everyone else is.


I don't think anyone actually things that, I haven't come across MSM guys saying they were be a top 5 team int he league. I think the over rated thing is just an echo chamber on this site....guys are over exaggerating the over ratedness and its snowballing.

They should be a top 3 team in the central based on goaltending. I can see them win the division or be a wild card team....all comes to Grubi bc there roster is good enough to be a pain in the ass to play against if they have at a minimum league average goaltending
STLBlues17 liked this.
Sep 28 at 5:54
#35
Sam
Joined: Jan 2018
Posts: 3,261
Likes: 1,178
Quoting: coga16
I don't think anyone actually things that, I haven't come across MSM guys saying they were be a top 5 team int he league. I think the over rated thing is just an echo chamber on this site....guys are over exaggerating the over ratedness and its snowballing.

They should be a top 3 team in the central based on goaltending. I can see them win the division or be a wild card team....all comes to Grubi bc there roster is good enough to be a pain in the ass to play against if they have at a minimum league average goaltending


I honestly think the more overrated team is the Stars. They needed .930 goaltending to make the playoffs in a weak west by 3 points. Everyone talks about how the Stars made it to Game 7 ot against the Blues, but they beat a Nashville team that played .500 hockey since thanksgiving and then couldn’t even touch the puck when it mattered against the Blues. Pavelski in for Zuccarello and then adding Corey Perry who was below replacement level last year doesn’t really move the needle either. I wouldn’t be totally shocked if the Stars miss.
Sep 28 at 5:57
#36
Joined: Jun 2015
Posts: 6,404
Likes: 1,597
Quoting: STLBlues17
I honestly think the more overrated team is the Stars. They needed .930 goaltending to make the playoffs in a weak west by 3 points. Everyone talks about how the Stars made it to Game 7 ot against the Blues, but they beat a Nashville team that played .500 hockey since thanksgiving and then couldn’t even touch the puck when it mattered against the Blues. Pavelski in for Zuccarello and then adding Corey Perry who was below replacement level last year doesn’t really move the needle either. I wouldn’t be totally shocked if the Stars miss.


yeah I don't like the stars much either. I don't think their D core is really that deep and like you said relieved heavy on Bishop. Perry and Pavelski doesn't really solve their issues so its a big confusing of their offseason.

I think Blues, Avs, Preds should be the top of the division, with Jets (don't like how their D core has been depleted) and Hawks (their roster is interesting now) sniffing around for that 4th spot. Preds getting Duchene, they are going to be a buzz saw
STLBlues17 liked this.
Sep 28 at 6:02
#37
Sam
Joined: Jan 2018
Posts: 3,261
Likes: 1,178
Quoting: coga16
yeah I don't like the stars much either. I don't think their D core is really that deep and like you said relieved heavy on Bishop. Perry and Pavelski doesn't really solve their issues so its a big confusing of their offseason.

I think Blues, Avs, Preds should be the top of the division, with Jets (don't like how their D core has been depleted) and Hawks (their roster is interesting now) sniffing around for that 4th spot. Preds getting Duchene, they are going to be a buzz saw


I also think the Preds will get a big wake up call with just how embarrassing they were for the back half of the season. I mean, the Blues smoked them 3 times and then it’s like they weren’t even there in the playoffs. My tentative rankings are
1. Preds
2. Blues
3. Avs
4. Stars
5. Hawks
6. Jets
7. Wild

Oh yeah, I kind of think the Wild will be better than everyone thinks as well, but they’re still kind of weak looking.
Sep 28 at 6:04
#38
Joined: Jun 2015
Posts: 6,404
Likes: 1,597
Quoting: STLBlues17
I also think the Preds will get a big wake up call with just how embarrassing they were for the back half of the season. I mean, the Blues smoked them 3 times and then it’s like they weren’t even there in the playoffs. My tentative rankings are
1. Preds
2. Blues
3. Avs
4. Stars
5. Hawks
6. Jets
7. Wild

Oh yeah, I kind of think the Wild will be better than everyone thinks as well, but they’re still kind of weak looking.


I am sad they canned Fenton, seeing what he would have done to the wild for another season would have been so fun.
STLBlues17 liked this.
Sep 28 at 6:07
#39
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 1,712
Likes: 490
Quoting: ForsbergForVezina
Byram will be a stud I think, I've heard nothing but good things for months. Really wanted the Hawks to take him. That said, he won't be in the NHL this year so his development is gonna take a little longer now that he's been sent down...


He'll be really good, I just wasn't surprised that he wasn't ready
Sep 28 at 8:18
#40
GoJetsGo
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 500
Likes: 127
Quoting: STLBlues17
Them and the Stars don’t scare me at all. I’d honestly be relatively surprised if the Preds or Blues don’t win the central.


Same here.
Sep 28 at 8:32
#41
Joined: May 2017
Posts: 1,699
Likes: 369
Quoting: ForsbergForVezina
I just don't know how you trade your all-star caliber top defenseman and not have one chomping at the bit to take his place (and it isn't Makar yet). A real 2C was a need, but then they also move other good depth players in Kerfoot and Soderberg? Some of the things they did this offseason were honestly mind-boggling.


To answer you original question, it's because this team walked through Calgary and lost to San Jose in 7 games in round 2, some say because of a questionable call... this team lost players like Barrie, kerfoot, and soderberg. Soderberg has been upgraded by kadri, kerfoot by donskoi and burakovsky, Barrie has been swapped out with makar... Barrie will be missed, but with girard getting better and makar playing upto what he did in the playoffs hes in conversation for the Calder, gabriel bourque has been upgraded with bellemare.... so everyone that made the run last year is still there, plus they upgraded their top lines, logic dictates that they will at least be where they were last year with a better team.... true that francouz isnt as proven as varly was but varly kinda sucked last year and francouz has been good everywhere upto now, so hopefully that applies to the nhl level... grubauer played so well last year they expect him to continue at that level, however the same can be said about any team, leafs Andersen goes down and they will suck, binnington in st Louis, holtby in Washington, fluery in vegas
 
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