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St. Louis Blues signed Brayden Schenn (8 Years / $6,500,000 AAV)

Was this a good signing?
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Oct 4 at 10:58
#26
Joined: Apr 2018
Posts: 178
Likes: 101
It's fair value and has no trade protection
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Oct 4 at 11:09
#27
Hockey/Caps fan
Joined: Sep 2018
Posts: 18
Likes: 36
"ah, since we just won the cup, we'll through in a couple of extra years, cheers!"
Oct 4 at 11:19
#28
Joined: May 2019
Posts: 397
Likes: 175
Edited Oct 4 at 12:05. Reason: Average cost of buyout fixed.
Term is the price they paid to keep the cap hit down. My guess is a 6 year term would have costed $1M AAV more. Without a NTC/NMC, if his play does fall off a cliff they can move him to a cap floor team towards the end of the deal as he makes $4M the last couple years. A buyout of the last two years is also only an average of $2.6M AAV on the cap over those four years. There will likely be a cap spike after the new TV deal and Seattle, so even the back side of the contract won't cripple them if he can maintain at least middle six caliber play for the last half of the contract. Overall, I'd say it's a fair deal.
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Oct 4 at 11:45
#29
Joined: Jul 2018
Posts: 110
Likes: 77
Quoting: Icegirl
The $$ is actually a steal. The length, not so much.


Personally I don't think the money is much of a steal either. Not that it's bad, on a 3 or 4 year deal I would say they managed to retain a UFA without overpaying, which is hard to do, but I still wouldn't be calling a steal, just good work getting a UFA for roughly fair value.

I know people will hate this comparison, but Brayden Schenn isn't signficantly better than Kevin Hayes. He's better, but they are both above average middle 6 wingers, neither is elite. Getting a slightly better above average middle six winger doesn't make your team significantly better, and the difference between them isn't worth a lot of cap space.

Kevin Hayes deal is bad, Schenn's deal is considerably worse. Hayes deal is 7 years, and buys the years between 27-34. Schenn's deal is 8 years and buys the years between 29-37. That is not a good look. Most would argue Kevin Hayes AAV was too high for any term, so I don't think there is enough difference between the AAV or their talent to go from overpaid on any term to steal. Maybe on a 1 or 2 year deal this is undervalued, but anything over that and it's likely just fair, and as soon as you pass 5 years the AAV should be falling considerably per year.
Oct 4 at 11:49
#30
Joined: Jul 2018
Posts: 110
Likes: 77
Quoting: Jetman
Schenn is only 28....yes 8 years is a long term but thats the only way to keep the AAV down...IMO, he is worth more than 6.5 but the Blues dont have the space....


He will be 29 before he plays a game on this deal though. I really don't see how his AAV would be enough higher to make it reasonable to sign all of these extra years.
Oct 4 at 11:59
#31
Joined: Jul 2018
Posts: 110
Likes: 77
Quoting: CN10
Term is the price they paid to keep the cap hit down. My guess is a 6 year term would have costed $1M AAV more. Without a NTC/NMC, if his play does fall off a cliff they can move him to a cap floor team towards the end of the deal as he makes $4M the last couple years. A buyout of the last two years is also only about $2M AAV on the cap. There will likely be a cap spike after the new TV deal and Seattle, so even the back side of the contract won't cripple them if he can maintain at least middle six caliber play for the last half of the contract. Overall, I'd say it's a fair deal.


The buyout would cost just over $3.5M in year one, $3.8M in year two then just under $1.4M a year for two years. His salary dips, but it will cost assets to move if his play falls off completely. More and more teams are pressing toward the ceiling each year, with fewer teams having big amounts of cap space, assuming it will be easy to offload him later shouldn't be something that makes the deal seem reasonable.

Also, I am not sure why so many people feel this AAV is such a steal. What would be his fair market value on a reasonable term? $7M x 4 years? I am not saying there wouldn't be a GM that lost his mind and did more than that, but it doesn't make the player worth it. If this is the cost for this player, the Blues should have let him walk.
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Oct 4 at 12:01
#32
Joined: Jul 2018
Posts: 110
Likes: 77
Quoting: BCAPP
Term is a little long, but man does this make the Hayes deal look terrible.


I think the Hayes deal makes this one look terrible. They aren't separated by all that much in terms of ability, and Hayes deal buys the seasons where he is 27-33, while this deal buys the seasons where Schenn is 29-36. Year 1 this deal is better, but after that all bets are off, and it won't take long before Hayes deal is better.

And Hayes deal is awful.
Oct 4 at 12:12
#33
Joined: May 2019
Posts: 397
Likes: 175
Quoting: Danny12357
The buyout would cost just over $3.5M in year one, $3.8M in year two then just under $1.4M a year for two years. His salary dips, but it will cost assets to move if his play falls off completely. More and more teams are pressing toward the ceiling each year, with fewer teams having big amounts of cap space, assuming it will be easy to offload him later shouldn't be something that makes the deal seem reasonable.

Also, I am not sure why so many people feel this AAV is such a steal. What would be his fair market value on a reasonable term? $7M x 4 years? I am not saying there wouldn't be a GM that lost his mind and did more than that, but it doesn't make the player worth it. If this is the cost for this player, the Blues should have let him walk.


That's true this season, but my reasoning is that the new TV deal and expansion will boost the cap a fair bit, leading to more of the budget teams being near the floor. I'm not saying it's a great deal as I don't like the term, but I think that was the compromise for the team to get the AAV down a bit while they are a contending team.

I already thought the AAV for 6 would be closer to $7.5M (about 9% of cap). For a four year deal my guess is that the ask is close to $8M AAV (about 10% of cap).
Oct 4 at 12:14
#34
I just need sauce
Joined: Oct 2017
Posts: 2,005
Likes: 803
This will be a bad contract at the end
Trickster liked this.
Oct 4 at 12:34
#35
Joined: May 2015
Posts: 2,523
Likes: 727
Quoting: Danny12357
I think the Hayes deal makes this one look terrible. They aren't separated by all that much in terms of ability, and Hayes deal buys the seasons where he is 27-33, while this deal buys the seasons where Schenn is 29-36. Year 1 this deal is better, but after that all bets are off, and it won't take long before Hayes deal is better.

And Hayes deal is awful.


Hayes has broken 50 points once. Schenn has broken 50 points for 4 straight years and 70 points once

Over the last 4 years Hayes has had 14, 17, 25, and 19 goals
Schenn has had 26, 25, 28, and 17 goals.

I was shocked when I realized the following, but Schenn has actually been a borderline 1C over the last 4 years, at least offensively.

He's 21st in goals by a C over the last 4 seasons with 96 (http://hkref.com/tiny/uqbJb). Thats a head of Kopitar (94), Ryan O'Reilly (93), Giroux (92) etc. With 31 teams, 21st makes him a lower end 1C in goal scoring

Similarly hes 23rd in points by a C 238 (http://hkref.com/tiny/Pa6ka), ahead of Duchene (229), Couturier (225), and Couture (219). Again with 31 teams it makes him a lower end 1C in points.

Schenn is a significantly better player. Schenn should make more than Hayes. But yes the term is late and long.

If anything the guy he should be compared to is Duchene. Schenn is arguably better, certainly plays a tougher game, and just signed for one more year, but 1.5 million less per year. He makes 4 million less on the total contract. But yes it starts 1 year later.
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Oct 4 at 1:10
#36
Joined: Jan 2019
Posts: 1,587
Likes: 725
I think the AAV is very good but the length brings it done slightly. Could of seen him getting 8 Million if it was 6ish years. I think this works well for both sides.
Oct 4 at 1:33
#37
Joined: Jun 2015
Posts: 537
Likes: 83
Pretty dependable 55-65 point guy, so 6.5 AAV is certainly good for that, a lot of players are getting 7+ for the point range. However, signing him until he is 36 is never a good idea. This will be a fairly good contract for 3-4 years, and a very bad contract for 4-5 years. Not great overall. I think 5 years at 7.0m AAV would be fair all around.
Oct 4 at 1:34
#38
Joined: Jun 2015
Posts: 537
Likes: 83
Quoting: BCAPP
Hayes has broken 50 points once. Schenn has broken 50 points for 4 straight years and 70 points once

Over the last 4 years Hayes has had 14, 17, 25, and 19 goals
Schenn has had 26, 25, 28, and 17 goals.

I was shocked when I realized the following, but Schenn has actually been a borderline 1C over the last 4 years, at least offensively.

He's 21st in goals by a C over the last 4 seasons with 96 (http://hkref.com/tiny/uqbJb). Thats a head of Kopitar (94), Ryan O'Reilly (93), Giroux (92) etc. With 31 teams, 21st makes him a lower end 1C in goal scoring

Similarly hes 23rd in points by a C 238 (http://hkref.com/tiny/Pa6ka), ahead of Duchene (229), Couturier (225), and Couture (219). Again with 31 teams it makes him a lower end 1C in points.

Schenn is a significantly better player. Schenn should make more than Hayes. But yes the term is late and long.

If anything the guy he should be compared to is Duchene. Schenn is arguably better, certainly plays a tougher game, and just signed for one more year, but 1.5 million less per year. He makes 4 million less on the total contract. But yes it starts 1 year later.


Agree with a lot of this that he is underpaid for the next few years based on AAV, but that term is dreadful.
Oct 4 at 1:37
#39
Joined: Mar 2019
Posts: 157
Likes: 32
Quoting: KoneDome
Agree with a lot of this that he is underpaid for the next few years based on AAV, but that term is dreadful.


Here's the thing, though. Once the cup window closes, they can use Schenn's contract to keep themselves above the cap floor.
Oct 4 at 1:39
#40
Joined: Jun 2015
Posts: 537
Likes: 83
Quoting: Hockyluv21
Here's the thing, though. Once the cup window closes, they can use Schenn's contract to keep themselves above the cap floor.

I thought that was what the Faulk contract was for, that one is just as bad.
Oct 4 at 1:41
#41
Joined: Jun 2015
Posts: 537
Likes: 83
Also, leafs are not going to go anywhere near Pietrangelo. He is going to demand Doughty money, and will probably get pretty close to it. Wouldn't be surprised to see someone give him 7 years, 9.5-10m AAV, but it wont be Toronto. What team has recently given long term deals to aging players like Faulk and Schenn, oh ya St. Louis. I bet Pietrangelo resigns for 7 years 10m AAV.
Oct 4 at 2:02
#42
Joined: Sep 2015
Posts: 48
Likes: 15
Was this a good signing? "Well where is the maybe option"
Oct 4 at 3:21
#43
Joined: Nov 2016
Posts: 269
Likes: 25
In my mind, the options were 6.5 x8 or 8.5 x4-5
Oct 4 at 3:25
#44
The evil stats guy
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 3,999
Likes: 1,659
Quoting: KoneDome
Also, leafs are not going to go anywhere near Pietrangelo. He is going to demand Doughty money, and will probably get pretty close to it. Wouldn't be surprised to see someone give him 7 years, 9.5-10m AAV, but it wont be Toronto. What team has recently given long term deals to aging players like Faulk and Schenn, oh ya St. Louis. I bet Pietrangelo resigns for 7 years 10m AAV.


Nah. Piet isn't worth doughty money, he is more in line for oel-Subban money. He should come in under 10
Oct 4 at 3:37
#45
best poster
Joined: Jul 2019
Posts: 1,084
Likes: 665
Quoting: Random2152
Nah. Piet isn't worth doughty money, he is more in line for oel-Subban money. He should come in under 10


I don't think Doughty is worth Doughty money. He was horrendous and what would've been a contract year.
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Oct 4 at 3:57
#46
LongtimeLeafsufferer
Joined: Jul 2015
Posts: 28,122
Likes: 6,326
Ok Schenn as got 6.5 X 8. As a UFA max term 7 years. Would any other team offer Schenn 7m X 7 ? Maybe, but would Schenn being happy with that new team? I figure, Schenn got about a max contract from the Blues, that he would have got if he had gone to UFA..
Oct 4 at 4:08
#47
Joined: May 2016
Posts: 1,906
Likes: 741
Quoting: Random2152
A players prime is now accepted to be 23-26 with decline beginning at 28-30. He is very much exiting his prime. And no, you cannot give 8 years to a guy who will be 37 when his deal expires when he will fall off badly before that. Especially with his style of play he is just going to stop being good one day. This is a bad deal man.


Players deserve to make money while they're good. Unfortunately the current CBA prevents them from doing so due to RFA restrictions. Unless they let players become UFAs in their early 20s and/or change the max contract length under the CBA, players are going to continue to get 8-year deals at age 28/29.

My solution? Let players become UFA at age 23, but allow their drafting clubs to offer them max 7-year deals, while other clubs can offer them max 4-year deals. After age 30, players can sign 7-year deals with whatever team/term they choose.
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Oct 4 at 4:47
#48
GoJetsGo
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 500
Likes: 127
As others have said, eight years is to long. He'll be 36 at the end of this.
AAV is good, but 5x7 would have been a lot better.
Oct 4 at 5:06
#49
Joined: Jun 2016
Posts: 168
Likes: 10
It's a good deal. Schenn can play up and down the lineup at any of the forward positions. Most importantly, he doesn't have any trade restrictions on this contract that would prevent the Blues from trading him down the line if they choose to entertain that idea. No need to worry about the later years of this contract, the idea is that they have kept the core of this team together for the next 4-5 years for continued success while other aging players contracts fall off the books. Solid.
Rom liked this.
Oct 4 at 5:15
#50
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 6,990
Likes: 1,416
Quoting: Random2152
I like Schenn and his AAV, but YOU CANNOT GIVE 8 YEARS TO A PLAYER EXITING THEIR PRIME - ESPECIALLY WHEN THEY AREN'T ELITE TOP LINE TALENT!


this model is bound to change. Eventually teams will realize how bad of a mistake it is.
Either the contracts won't be guaranteed in the future, or shorter deals are coming.
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