Lean Draisaitl: the most underrated player in the league.

If the Oilers were to vote for their MVP today, Draisaitl would win.

Draisaitl certainly is dominant with McDavid but so far this season, Edmonton is seeing 40% of the expected goals for when McDavid isn't on the ice. It's a small sample size for Draisaitl since he is always with McDavid but the point is when McDavid isn't on the ice the Oilers are getting heavily outplayed. Luck and goaltending that is unsustainable is why they have won so much so far.

Different situation entirely. I am not at all happy with the Leafs so far. My biggest issue is coaching. I don't get how a team as talented and fast can always be out of position. That is coaching. Babs sucks.

Do you recall that is said it wasn't a trade people were going to like? I said that cause Bear is definitely not someone the Oilers would want to move. I'm certainly not that high on bear. He needs a lot more time to determine how good he is. But he's playing pretty good and Bracco is in the AHL so there is no discussion on the trade. It's stupid.

Only fans think that. McDavid is the best player in hockey and Draisaitl with him is a dominant player as well. End of story and that isn't at all a bad thing.

James Neal>Auston Matthews
Draisaitl>Auston Matthews + Tavares (and much lower cap hit).
Nugent-Hopkins=Auston Matthews (with 50% of cap hit).

Cool story

Fun fact: Toronto has been in the playoffs for the past 3 years, Oilers only 1 of the past 3 . . . and Leon Draisaitl still has more playoff points than Auston Matthews. Oh yeah, and he's $3m cheaper per season and signed for longer.

Also, true story: Leon Draisaitl has more second round playoff goals than the Toronto Maple Leafs in the post-salary cap era. So do James Neal and RNH.

https://gyazo.com/c8454e9436414771f842e99a86d9f0c4

Matthews and Drai really aren't incomparable at all. Similar tier of player. Drai's boxcars get bumped because of McD, but McD gets a fair bit of help from Drai too. IIRC McD's had better underlyings with Drai than he had with RNH, by a decent margin.

None of Neal's goals came with EDM, also he isn't shooting 31% forever. At his career average of 11.8% he'd be on pace for approx. 1 goal every 3 games, or about 27 goals. That's really good, and with the hot start he probably makes 30 this year, but Matthews drives play better and hasn't failed to reach a 40-goal pace over 82 games in his career.

https://gyazo.com/045967d3f774d0f3e4493830d5e9b249?token=2ed0ab250f4b25fe894d6ea6a9b3ddf4

JT's probably better than Drai for the defence if nothing else. (The GF isn't as regression prone because of Drai's shot being one of the League's best).

RAPM hates RNH for as-yet not fully understood reasons, but he's still mostly the Oil's 2-way C due to lack of options and doesn't really do anything better than Matthews.

Bracco hasn't done a ton at 5v5 with the Marlies, and trading Bear for a PP specialist doesn't really make sense for the Oil. Bear also probably wouldn't be Toronto's 3rd best RD in this scenario (behind Barrie, Marincin, Holl, feasibly Lilly as well, definitely Dermott if Babs plays him at RD). Both teams lose this deal and it makes no sense.

And what? Is that going to make you feel better when Edmonton misses the playoffs again? Look man, I don't think Draisaitl sucks, he's terrific. All I am saying is Edmonton is the best team in hockey when McDavid is on the ice and when he isn't they've at best been equal (RNH's line) and for the rest of the time they are getting caved in. It's just the reality of the situation. I would love it if they were actually good but they aren't. Half their forwards aren't making a lot of teams in the league. That's going to catch up, like it's already showing signs of cracking.

*checks standings* Hmmmmm . . . .

EDM's 26th in the league in 5v5 and all-situations Score and Venue-adjusted CF% (Corsi > xG this year, as the shot locations early on were broken) but 8th in 5v5 PDO, and 7th in all-situations PDO. PDO regresses, if not in-season then certainly eventually. Mike Smith and Mikko Koskinen are not likely to continue to provide the 6th-best team sv% in the NHL. Banking the points is great and Neal for Lucic was a steal and a half, but this team's closer to 26 than to 8 in terms of talent, even with that dominant top-line of Drai-McD-literally anyone who can skate.

Do you think McDavid and Draisaitl are going to score 3 points a night all season? Cause checking your record, that's essentially the only chance you have to win. That is exactly why I have no faith in the team. These guys aren't going to end up with 160 points each. And when the rest of the league tightens up and your top line slows down a bit, Edmonton is going to lose a lot. They have no depth and it'll catch up.

Yeah, but McDavid has scored 2 or more points in 6 of 11 games so far. The Oilers lead the league with an 8-2-1 record.

In the 2018-19 season McDavid had 36 multi-point games, 30 single point games and just 12 games with no points.

Oilers record when McDavid scores 2 or more: 22-10-4
Oilers record when McDavid gets just 1 point: 10-17-3
Oilers record when McDavid does not score: 2-10-0

This year, it looks like this so far:

Oilers record when McDavid scores 2 or more: 6-0-0
Oilers record when McDavid gets just 1 point: 1-0-0
Oilers record when McDavid does not score: 1-2-1

The major difference this year is team defense and goaltending. McDavid's scoring pace is only 22% higher than last season.

If anyone in the league can do it, it's these two. But it's somewhat hyperbolic on your part - they're on pace to score 149 and 142 and the team has an 8-2-1 record. I don't think anyone is expecting them to maintain that pace all season, but nobody would be surprised to see McDavid finish with 125 points. As long as the goaltending tandem remains hot, this team will continue to have a chance every night.

It's going to slow down and with it the fortunes of the club. The complete lack of scoring beyond the top two lines and I'd even say the 2nd line shouldn't be counted on for a tonne of extra scoring is going to undue this club.

Does anyone really expect Mike Smith at his age to remain hot all season? Or Koskinen? This whole conversation is just a symptom of the age we live in. Everything is extreme, a little bit of success and the team is the best in the league, when the little bit of adversity comes, and it will, everyone will turn on them. It's all stupid.

So you're saying that McDavid and Draisaitl will "regress to the mean", but that the bottom-6 won't? That doesn't make sense.

Yup. I don't think they are the best team in the league, but I'm enjoying this top-of-the-league run immensely. And who knows about the goalies - they're voodoo - but Smith isn't the goalie that we saw last year, so regression should be minor. His 3 seasons prior to last year were .915, .914 and .915, so his current .925 is a little hot but not incredibly so.

Koskinen's .927 is in line with the .927 he posted in 9 starts in November last year, so par for the course. The issue was that his play declined through the season - part of this was due to overuse and this won't happen this year as he and Smith are platooning - but it remains to be seen if he can maintain this level of play. Here are his splits from last year

October: .889 (1 start)
November: .927 (9)
December: .907 (9)
January: .891 (6)
February: .904 (10)
March: .901 (13)
April: .900 (3)

Personally, I do not think that anyone would be all that surprised if either of them scored that many in a year someday. They are both heading into their career prime and improving by leaps and bounds. Draisaitl is the most dominant player in the league right now (but only because McDavid is sick). My hope is that they split those two up and get better wingers for each of them (*ahem Taylor Hall.) I would predict that one of them hits 160 before Auston Matthews hits 100.

Koski/Smith are doing better than expected and it is probably not sustainable . . . but no reason to say for sure that it isn't sustainable either, IMO. Koskinen got tired last year and played bad (as did the defence in front of him), but I think he's a decent goaltender and maybe a good one. Smith's save percentage is a bit high this year, but even if that drops off I do not mind. He moves the puck well and makes the team play faster, which I like. His save percentage is not the whole story with him.

Judging by how the bottom 6 has played the past 2 years, they are already at the mean, or are above it since they haven't allowed as many goals as expected. Edmonton could absolutely make the playoffs but not because they are the best team in the NHL, they clearly aren't and they'll have troubles for long stretches this season. Knock on wood that McDavid doesn't get hurt cause if he does, and its for a long stretch of time, this squad would be in massive trouble.

So essentially what you are saying is, if everything possible goes perfect, Edmonton is going to continue winning a tonne. And if the goaltending falls back to what it has been for all but 1 month last season, things are going to get dicey. These are the reasons why I have no faith in Edmonton. They are on a hot streak and when it levels out, things are going to turn south in a hurry.

Its why I am harping so much that they need to continue their rebuild. Move out anyone that isn't going to be a long term piece, keep making smart draft picks and hope that the development of younger, faster, skilled players, will help them be an up an coming powerhouse in 3 seasons. The alternative will be short term solutions to extend this heater that will utlimately cost good long term pieces that will cause this club to once again falter. If that happens, how long before your best players say enough is enough and want out.

As for the argument that McDavid isn't the type of leader to bail on a team, I just don't buy it. If management wastes 10 years of his career, I think he's going to want out and he'll have a NMC at that time which will massively lower his return and it will destroy the hearts of the fan base. I don't want to see that. Believe it or not, I'm on your side, I just keep my head and can see the forest through the trees. The team has major problems and this hot start is masking them all.

To be fair, the same things you are saying we’re said about the islanders last season.

Regarding McDavid, if they miss the playoffs every year for the next 4-5 years, then we can start talking about him asking for a trade. It’s amazing what good coaching and a solid defense can do for a team. Klefbom, bear, Bouchard, and nurse will be a pretty solid D core, and if they keep Playing McDavid and Draisaitl as much as they have and EDM role players chip in here and there, they can easily make the playoffs in the near future.

They also have Benson and Yamamoto , two good F prospects who should make the team next season

And Toronto's poor start is exposing all of its problems. Poor coaching. AHL-calibre defence . Grossly overpaid, streaky, injury-prone forwards. Mediocre goaltending.

Well in fairness to the Islanders, they had a hell of a lot more depth than Edmonton has. I'm also not at all sold on Edmonton's defence. Klefbom is great, Nurse is getting better, Bouchard isn't in the NHL yet but I think he'll also be really good. Bear we'll still have to see, he's been pretty good but its a tad early to anoint him a game changer. What I am thinking you may be trying to say is we should have patience with the Oilers, which is my entire point. They are not a good team yet and what worries me is that Holland is going to jump the gun and start trying to supplement McDavid by buying older players in FA or trading young assets for rentals at the deadline. That will only damage this franchise.

They have some pieces, they just need more of them and if we can learn anything from history, high priced FA's almost never are the answer.