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Babcock Out Realistic Trades and Line Changes

Created by: KoneDome
Team: 2019-20 Toronto Maple Leafs
Initial Creation Date: Oct. 23, 2019
Published: Oct. 23, 2019
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Trades
1.
2.
TOR
  1. Stecher, Troy ($1,000,000 retained)
VAN
Retained Salary Transactions
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2020
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Logo of the TOR
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Logo of the SJS
Logo of the STL
Logo of the WPG
2021
Logo of the TOR
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Logo of the TOR
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Logo of the TOR
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2022
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ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
22$81,500,000$81,414,643$0$202,500$85,357
Left WingCentreRight Wing
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$925,000$925,000
LW, RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$11,634,000$11,634,000
C
UFA - 5
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$6,962,366$6,962,366
RW
UFA - 5
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$2,250,000$2,250,000
RW, LW
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$11,000,000$11,000,000
C, LW
NMC
UFA - 6
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$10,893,000$10,893,000
RW
UFA - 6
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$3,400,000$3,400,000
LW, RW
UFA - 4
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$3,500,000$3,500,000
LW, C, RW
UFA - 4
Logo of the New York Rangers
$1,850,000$1,850,000
RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$694,444$694,444 (Performance Bonus$70,000$70K)
LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$775,000$775,000
LW, RW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$675,000$675,000
C
UFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$5,000,000$5,000,000
LD
UFA - 3
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$4,500,000$4,500,000
RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$5,000,000$5,000,000
G
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$4,000,000$4,000,000
LD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$2,750,000$2,750,000
RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$863,333$863,333
LD/RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
$1,325,000$1,325,000
RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the New York Rangers
$792,500$792,500 (Performance Bonus$132,500$132K)
G
UFA - 1
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$675,000$675,000
RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$5,250,000$5,250,000
RW
M-NTC, NMC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$750,000$750,000
C
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$5,300,000$5,300,000
RW
M-NTC, NMC
UFA - 1

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Oct. 23, 2019 at 11:58 p.m.
#51
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Quoting: Sign_em_up000000
I hope so, but I can't see him stepping in and being that guy right away. I think he will need some sheltered minutes to start his NHL career off then possibly. If we can get someone who can step into that role right away I think it will make a huge difference for Rielly as well as the rest of the team... Once Babcock gets fired of course, plus it would strengthen our d that much more kinda like when we traded for Muzzin.


You see I don't think that is true because Rielly does make others better. And I think Liljegren is going to be better than Holl or Ceci really fast so I think he'll press the subject. There is a good chance that he still makes his debut this season at some point. He's been really good with the Marlies
Oct. 23, 2019 at 11:59 p.m.
#52
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Quoting: Goulet
Cashing those $15M bonus cheques can have a blinding effect. Let's hope it's temporary.


But they aren't playing lazy. If anything Marner is trying to do to much. I think a bit of success and things could change real quick.
Oct. 24, 2019 at 8:34 a.m.
#53
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Quoting: LoganOllivier
But they aren't playing lazy. If anything Marner is trying to do to much. I think a bit of success and things could change real quick.


I wouldn't go as far as to say they're looking lazy out there, just different, not themselves. Marner seems a little too relaxed and that playful side we're used to seeing is being contained... most of the time.

To me they just look like a team that expects to have an easy year and isn't putting in the work to make it happen.
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Oct. 24, 2019 at 9:19 a.m.
#54
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Quoting: Goulet
I wouldn't go as far as to say they're looking lazy out there, just different, not themselves. Marner seems a little too relaxed and that playful side we're used to seeing is being contained... most of the time.

To me they just look like a team that expects to have an easy year and isn't putting in the work to make it happen.


I completely disagree, they look like a team that knows there is a world of pressure on them and they are stiff. They need to losen up, relax and play their game. Kind of like how Nylander is playing. He's been deadly pretty much every shift.
Oct. 24, 2019 at 1:36 p.m.
#55
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Quoting: blowing_the_zone
I was just about to write something similar. I agree, and I hope Babcock's time is just about up. I liked him alot during his first two seasons but increasingly I'm seeing that when the leafs do have success it's not because of Babcock, it's in spite of him.

Other than that, don't trade Kap - he's looking good as a 3rw at 3M and change. Really like the lineup though, and not trading Kap means a third line of AJ - Ketfoot -Kap given this agm. That would be fast, and fun to watch.


Someone has to go, along with Hyman.
Kapanen looks the guy to me.

If you want a better D, gonna have to give to get.
Oct. 24, 2019 at 1:55 p.m.
#56
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Quoting: Trickster
Someone has to go, along with Hyman.
Kapanen looks the guy to me.

If you want a better D, gonna have to give to get.


That's fair. I'm just saying I hope they don't get reactive about a trade to improve the situation until they fully assess and understand if the problem is personnel or coaching. Cause once a player is traded you don't get them back.

I think its pretty much set in stone that as long as Dubas is around then Keefe will get a crack at coaching the leafs at some point. That opportunity might come sooner than expected. Or Dubas might be the guy who gets sacked at some point and Keefe never gets his shot. But I think that's the more unlikely scenario.
Oct. 24, 2019 at 2:01 p.m.
#57
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Edited Oct. 24, 2019 at 2:09 p.m.
Quoting: The_Ultimate_Pielord
Sorry. The fans might get him fired if the noise gets loud enough, Toronto's historically been pretty receptive to the fanbase.


No need to be sorry. Your takes were some of the best thought out, least bias comments I've read on the leafs in awhile. It makes sense what you posted.

The problem is.. is that I am biased. I'm just not a fan of Babcock. The dude grates on me and I find myself spontaneously swearing at my TV. This is not a healthy thing for a grown man to do.

But you're right, the leafs have generally been responsive to fan noise coming outta leafland. I now know what I must do to resolve this conundrum...
Oct. 24, 2019 at 2:02 p.m.
#58
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Quoting: Goulet
I wouldn't go as far as to say they're looking lazy out there, just different, not themselves. Marner seems a little too relaxed and that playful side we're used to seeing is being contained... most of the time.

To me they just look like a team that expects to have an easy year and isn't putting in the work to make it happen.


I am still agreeing with everything that you post in this thread.
Oct. 24, 2019 at 2:06 p.m.
#59
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Quoting: Captain_Koivu_
How about putting the blame where the blame belongs the G.M. The team was going in the right direction and then they replaced LOU!


It's easy to get the team in the right direction when you are literally last place when you take over...
Oct. 24, 2019 at 2:18 p.m.
#60
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Quoting: blowing_the_zone
That's fair. I'm just saying I hope they don't get reactive about a trade to improve the situation until they fully assess and understand if the problem is personnel or coaching. Cause once a player is traded you don't get them back.
Quoting: LoganOllivier
You see I don't think that is true because Rielly does make others better. And I think Liljegren is going to be better than Holl or Ceci really fast so I think he'll press the subject. There is a good chance that he still makes his debut this season at some point. He's been really good with the Marlies



I think its pretty much set in stone that as long as Dubas is around then Keefe will get a crack at coaching the leafs at some point. That opportunity might come sooner than expected. Or Dubas might be the guy who gets sacked at some point and Keefe never gets his shot. But I think that's the more unlikely scenario.



At some point you need to ask "What has Babcock actually done each year with the leafs?"
Yr 1: He took a team of misfits and had them playing very respectable hockey, competed every night, rarely got blown out, and still finished last place. However, easy to say that had little to do with him because literally half the roster was competing to stay in the NHL.
Yr 2: Possibly Babcock's biggest achievement in TO. Taking a team of 6 (maybe more?) rookies and blowing the doors of teams with their speed and skill, but were very shaky defensively. However, you have to ask how much of this was Babcock, and how much of it was eager rookies trying to make a name for themselves and trying to hit bonuses.
Yr 3 & 4: We know how they ended, and if anything there has been a gradual decline in level of play since Yr 2. They have the same defensive deficiencies and propensity to let the other team get the first goal as they had two seasons ago. One compliment to Babcock is that he has done a great job developing Marner into a 200 ft player, but you can't necessarily say the same thing about Matthews or Nylander. How much of this is on the coach and how much is on player I am not sure.

Moving Forward: We are 5-4-2 which isn't acceptable. Only teams we have beat are OTT, CBJ, DET, MIN, & BOS. Those were four teams are likely bottom 10 teams in the league.
Next 5 games are SJS (H), MTL (A), WSH (H), PHI (A), LAK (H). In my opinion, if they don't get at least 7 points from those games, Babcock should be gone. Say they 2-2-1 in those games and their record now is 7-6-3, then we could already be 8-10 points out of division lead.

Rant over.
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Oct. 24, 2019 at 2:26 p.m.
#61
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Quoting: KoneDome
At some point you need to ask "What has Babcock actually done each year with the leafs?"
Yr 1: He took a team of misfits and had them playing very respectable hockey, competed every night, rarely got blown out, and still finished last place. However, easy to say that had little to do with him because literally half the roster was competing to stay in the NHL.
Yr 2: Possibly Babcock's biggest achievement in TO. Taking a team of 6 (maybe more?) rookies and blowing the doors of teams with their speed and skill, but were very shaky defensively. However, you have to ask how much of this was Babcock, and how much of it was eager rookies trying to make a name for themselves and trying to hit bonuses.
Yr 3 & 4: We know how they ended, and if anything there has been a gradual decline in level of play since Yr 2. They have the same defensive deficiencies and propensity to let the other team get the first goal as they had two seasons ago. One compliment to Babcock is that he has done a great job developing Marner into a 200 ft player, but you can't necessarily say the same thing about Matthews or Nylander. How much of this is on the coach and how much is on player I am not sure.

Moving Forward: We are 5-4-2 which isn't acceptable. Only teams we have beat are OTT, CBJ, DET, MIN, & BOS. Those were four teams are likely bottom 10 teams in the league.
Next 5 games are SJS (H), MTL (A), WSH (H), PHI (A), LAK (H). In my opinion, if they don't get at least 7 points from those games, Babcock should be gone. Say they 2-2-1 in those games and their record now is 7-6-3, then we could already be 8-10 points out of division lead.

Rant over.


Excellent rant! I couldn't agree more
Oct. 24, 2019 at 2:38 p.m.
#62
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Quoting: KoneDome
At some point you need to ask "What has Babcock actually done each year with the leafs?"
Yr 1: He took a team of misfits and had them playing very respectable hockey, competed every night, rarely got blown out, and still finished last place. However, easy to say that had little to do with him because literally half the roster was competing to stay in the NHL.
Yr 2: Possibly Babcock's biggest achievement in TO. Taking a team of 6 (maybe more?) rookies and blowing the doors of teams with their speed and skill, but were very shaky defensively. However, you have to ask how much of this was Babcock, and how much of it was eager rookies trying to make a name for themselves and trying to hit bonuses.
Yr 3 & 4: We know how they ended, and if anything there has been a gradual decline in level of play since Yr 2. They have the same defensive deficiencies and propensity to let the other team get the first goal as they had two seasons ago. One compliment to Babcock is that he has done a great job developing Marner into a 200 ft player, but you can't necessarily say the same thing about Matthews or Nylander. How much of this is on the coach and how much is on player I am not sure.

Moving Forward: We are 5-4-2 which isn't acceptable. Only teams we have beat are OTT, CBJ, DET, MIN, & BOS. Those were four teams are likely bottom 10 teams in the league.
Next 5 games are SJS (H), MTL (A), WSH (H), PHI (A), LAK (H). In my opinion, if they don't get at least 7 points from those games, Babcock should be gone. Say they 2-2-1 in those games and their record now is 7-6-3, then we could already be 8-10 points out of division lead.

Rant over.


As much as I don't like Babs, a buddy of mine today made a good point that I feel means Babs is here for the regular season, period. If Babs gets canned, there is one option to replace him in my opinion and that is Sheldon Keefe. I don't think the Leafs would want to screw up the Marlies if the Leafs falter this season. So firing Babs and replacing him with an interim could be a possibility but I doubt it comes to that. The team is going to be better, in my opinion its going to come down to the playoffs.
Oct. 24, 2019 at 5:15 p.m.
#63
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Quoting: KoneDome
At some point you need to ask "What has Babcock actually done each year with the leafs?"
Yr 1: He took a team of misfits and had them playing very respectable hockey, competed every night, rarely got blown out, and still finished last place. However, easy to say that had little to do with him because literally half the roster was competing to stay in the NHL.
Yr 2: Possibly Babcock's biggest achievement in TO. Taking a team of 6 (maybe more?) rookies and blowing the doors of teams with their speed and skill, but were very shaky defensively. However, you have to ask how much of this was Babcock, and how much of it was eager rookies trying to make a name for themselves and trying to hit bonuses.
Yr 3 & 4: We know how they ended, and if anything there has been a gradual decline in level of play since Yr 2. They have the same defensive deficiencies and propensity to let the other team get the first goal as they had two seasons ago. One compliment to Babcock is that he has done a great job developing Marner into a 200 ft player, but you can't necessarily say the same thing about Matthews or Nylander. How much of this is on the coach and how much is on player I am not sure.

Moving Forward: We are 5-4-2 which isn't acceptable. Only teams we have beat are OTT, CBJ, DET, MIN, & BOS. Those were four teams are likely bottom 10 teams in the league.
Next 5 games are SJS (H), MTL (A), WSH (H), PHI (A), LAK (H). In my opinion, if they don't get at least 7 points from those games, Babcock should be gone. Say they 2-2-1 in those games and their record now is 7-6-3, then we could already be 8-10 points out of division lead.

Rant over.


The Leafs definitely haven't declined since year two, a pair of tight 7-game losses against Boston are a lot more impressive than a 6-game loss against Washington, and there's a been a massive difference recordwise between the wildcard and 3rd in the Atlantic with how topheavy that division is.

The losses to Boston are mostly down to the Bruins just having a better roster. The issue is that roster difference is down to Boston's top guys being better overall (Offence+Defence) than their Toronto counterparts. It's not really clear how to fix that: the only realistic Bergeron-level players to change teams recently are Tavares, EK, Stone and Hamilton. The Leafs had legitimate chances of landing exactly 2 of those players (OTT refuses to trade within the Atlantic because reasons) and got one of them. They just haven't had opportunities to add the top-end talent they need to beat teams with those guys consistently. This is feasibly a top-5 roster, but Boston and Tampa are top-3 rosters.
.500 record isn't acceptable but the Leafs are a top-5 team in CF% (Corsi > xG for this season due to the location bug) and realistically this roster isn't going to consistently underperform its playdriving, even if you're bearish on Freddie. The defensive deficiencies are a function of the roster: Guy Boucher won coach of the year and wasn't able to make Ceci not apocalyptic on D, Rielly's been bad defensively his whole career, JT was bad defensively on the Island, Nylander's D was decent last year : https://gyazo.com/a58939894bd1bf4ceb5418c2b24dc2f1, so that basically means Matthews among the core guys could feasibly have been better defensively under a different coach. This team's also had a LOT of back-to-backs, and given how young the season is, that has a big impact on their record. It's been a lot better than it looks.

The fundamental truth is Toronto's roster is worse than Boston's and has no realistic way to become better than Boston's unless someone wants to take a machinegun to their foot. Best thing they can do is stick to the plan and hope they get lucky in the spring.
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Oct. 24, 2019 at 6:13 p.m.
#64
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Edited Oct. 24, 2019 at 6:21 p.m.
Quoting: The_Ultimate_Pielord
The Leafs definitely haven't declined since year two, a pair of tight 7-game losses against Boston are a lot more impressive than a 6-game loss against Washington, and there's a been a massive difference recordwise between the wildcard and 3rd in the Atlantic with how topheavy that division is.

The losses to Boston are mostly down to the Bruins just having a better roster. The issue is that roster difference is down to Boston's top guys being better overall (Offence+Defence) than their Toronto counterparts. It's not really clear how to fix that: the only realistic Bergeron-level players to change teams recently are Tavares, EK, Stone and Hamilton. The Leafs had legitimate chances of landing exactly 2 of those players (OTT refuses to trade within the Atlantic because reasons) and got one of them. They just haven't had opportunities to add the top-end talent they need to beat teams with those guys consistently. This is feasibly a top-5 roster, but Boston and Tampa are top-3 rosters.
.500 record isn't acceptable but the Leafs are a top-5 team in CF% (Corsi > xG for this season due to the location bug) and realistically this roster isn't going to consistently underperform its playdriving, even if you're bearish on Freddie. The defensive deficiencies are a function of the roster: Guy Boucher won coach of the year and wasn't able to make Ceci not apocalyptic on D, Rielly's been bad defensively his whole career, JT was bad defensively on the Island, Nylander's D was decent last year : https://gyazo.com/a58939894bd1bf4ceb5418c2b24dc2f1, so that basically means Matthews among the core guys could feasibly have been better defensively under a different coach. This team's also had a LOT of back-to-backs, and given how young the season is, that has a big impact on their record. It's been a lot better than it looks.

The fundamental truth is Toronto's roster is worse than Boston's and has no realistic way to become better than Boston's unless someone wants to take a machinegun to their foot. Best thing they can do is stick to the plan and hope they get lucky in the spring.


Huh. You're a tough guy to argue with..

After reading your post, I think I'm landing on the current situation being a combination of what you stated, plus an overenthusiastic fan base that has been long starved for some success, plus some misplaced expectations, plus a lack of patience, plus general frustration with Babcock and the overall sh*tshow that is the 24/7 media in Toronto.

So, what are you telling me this equation equals? Please don't say another 50 year plus drought...cause I don't have time for that.

Honestly though, that's a super solid and rational assessment of the current state of affairs. And when you put it like that, things really aren't that bad. Especially with how the Marlies are shaping up with the likes of Sandin, Lily, Korshkov, Bracco and with Robertson on deck.

All that said, you kinda take some of the fun out of this stuff with your reasonable, well-thought out takes. I was half way done finishing my manifesto on how the leafs fan base can get Babcock sacked. That's time in my life I'll never get back... thanks for that... frown
Oct. 24, 2019 at 7:42 p.m.
#65
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Quoting: blowing_the_zone
Huh. You're a tough guy to argue with..

After reading your post, I think I'm landing on the current situation being a combination of what you stated, plus an overenthusiastic fan base that has been long starved for some success, plus some misplaced expectations, plus a lack of patience, plus general frustration with Babcock and the overall sh*tshow that is the 24/7 media in Toronto.

So, what are you telling me this equation equals? Please don't say another 50 year plus drought...cause I don't have time for that.

Honestly though, that's a super solid and rational assessment of the current state of affairs. And when you put it like that, things really aren't that bad. Especially with how the Marlies are shaping up with the likes of Sandin, Lily, Korshkov, Bracco and with Robertson on deck.

All that said, you kinda take some of the fun out of this stuff with your reasonable, well-thought out takes. I was half way done finishing my manifesto on how the leafs fan base can get Babcock sacked. That's time in my life I'll never get back... thanks for that... frown


Sorry about that. To make up for it, here's a nice spate of reasons for optimism.

Columbus needed to get lucky against Tampa. St. Louis realistically needed to get lucky against San Jose and maybe Boston. Teams get lucky in the playoffs all the time. The Leafs are the third best team in their division, but not by a ton, and they're good enough that they aren't massive underdogs against anyone. The core's mostly fairly young and doesn't have anyone in major decline yet. This state of affairs should last for at least another 5 years. There's probably only 1 team in the West and 1 in the Metro they need luck against. If they win the division (unlikely but definitely possible, especially if Tampa loses some pieces to the cap), they're a mortal lock to not need luck in R1, they'll probably but not certainly need it in R2, and then they're probably the better team on through because of how random the NHL playoffs are.

The Leafs probably have a 5-year window at about 1/10 chance to win the cup at season start (approx. 80% to make the playoffs and 1/8 to win the cup once in, both of which are probably a little low). That's a 1-(9/10)^5 or about a 41% chance to win a cup in the next 5 years. They'll get probably another 5-year window at like 5-ish% on average (approx. 23% chance of winning a cup). That's a total chance of 1-(1-41)(1-23) or about 55% chance of winning a cup with this core in the next 10 years. And that 2nd window can definitely be extended, therefore, the Leafs are likely to break that cup drought with the Matthews-Marner-Nylander-Rielly core (Freddy and JT might well move on before the cup win).

If Washington's cup is evidence of anything, it's that if you extend the window long enough, you'll break through eventually.

So yeah, probably not another 50-year drought smile
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Oct. 24, 2019 at 7:52 p.m.
#66
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Quoting: The_Ultimate_Pielord
Sorry about that. To make up for it, here's a nice spate of reasons for optimism.

Columbus needed to get lucky against Tampa. St. Louis realistically needed to get lucky against San Jose and maybe Boston. Teams get lucky in the playoffs all the time. The Leafs are the third best team in their division, but not by a ton, and they're good enough that they aren't massive underdogs against anyone. The core's mostly fairly young and doesn't have anyone in major decline yet. This state of affairs should last for at least another 5 years. There's probably only 1 team in the West and 1 in the Metro they need luck against. If they win the division (unlikely but definitely possible, especially if Tampa loses some pieces to the cap), they're a mortal lock to not need luck in R1, they'll probably but not certainly need it in R2, and then they're probably the better team on through because of how random the NHL playoffs are.

The Leafs probably have a 5-year window at about 1/10 chance to win the cup at season start (approx. 80% to make the playoffs and 1/8 to win the cup once in, both of which are probably a little low). That's a 1-(9/10)^5 or about a 41% chance to win a cup in the next 5 years. They'll get probably another 5-year window at like 5-ish% on average (approx. 23% chance of winning a cup). That's a total chance of 1-(1-41)(1-23) or about 55% chance of winning a cup with this core in the next 10 years. And that 2nd window can definitely be extended, therefore, the Leafs are likely to break that cup drought with the Matthews-Marner-Nylander-Rielly core (Freddy and JT might well move on before the cup win).

If Washington's cup is evidence of anything, it's that if you extend the window long enough, you'll break through eventually.

So yeah, probably not another 50-year drought smile


Ok. So, if I'm reading this right then we have 55% chance in the next decade and you're pretty much guaranteeing me that it won't be another 50 years. Alright. I'll take those odds. But tell me this.. what are the odds Babcock is still around when it happens?

Listen, just for conversation sake.. you're not a bookie by chance, are you? It seems like you've more than thought this stuff through..
Oct. 24, 2019 at 7:57 p.m.
#67
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Quoting: blowing_the_zone
Ok. So, if I'm reading this right then we have 55% chance in the next decade and you're pretty much guaranteeing me that it won't be another 50 years. Alright. I'll take those odds. But tell me this.. what are the odds Babcock is still around when it happens?

Listen, just for conversation sake.. you're not a bookie by chance, are you? It seems like you've more than thought this stuff through..


I am not a bookie, I'm just a nerd with Evolving-hockey bookmarked and a decent memory.

Babcock odds comes down to how he's viewed internally, which I know very little about. He survived this long, so they probably like him, but I don't have enough inside information to make a firm judgement.

Give the Younggrens your money.
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Oct. 24, 2019 at 8:03 p.m.
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Quoting: The_Ultimate_Pielord
I am not a bookie, I'm just a nerd with Evolving-hockey bookmarked and a decent memory.

Babcock odds comes down to how he's viewed internally, which I know very little about. He survived this long, so they probably like him, but I don't have enough inside information to make a firm judgement.

Give the Younggrens your money.


Lol smile

Alright, I'll bet you $5 bucks Babcock doesn't make it to the summer. If you agree to take that bet we can figure out the logistics later on about how you'll get me that money by July... wink
 
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