Right before July 1, 2018, the Capitals resigned John Carlson to an 8 year, $64M contract. Let's just pretend that he had hit the open market, and the Leafs could've opted to sign Carlson instead of Tavares. Because it's the open market, Carlson would get considerably more than he did in DC, so let's just say he signs for a $9.5M AAV over 7 years. If you're Kyle Dubas, which do you sign? Also, don't account for Carlson's incredible start to the season. Think back to the reputation Carlson had back in 2018, which was a legit #1 defenseman that would probably be hovering around 5th-7th place in the Norris voting. I'm curious as to what the responses are.

I'd think most of the Leaf haters will go with Carlson and most of the crazy biased Leaf fans will choose Tavares, but I'm curious as to what the reasonable Toronto fans and non Toronto haters would choose. It would certainly change the team outlook, with the Kadri trade most likely never happening and needing to find a 3C solution.

I'm a Sabres fan, so I certainly can't be accused of having a pro-Leafs bias, but I chose Tavares. His leadership is going to be a huge asset as he ages.
Part of that assessment probably has to do with his uncle John Tavares' domination of the NLL with the Bandits for 23 years.

Considering the Leafs had Matthews and Kadri (who was coming off back to back 30 goal seasons, 61 and 55 points, while being on a good contract) as a solid 1-2 up the middle, were top 5 in goals for in the previous 2 seasons, and were lacking a top end RHD, I think if Carlson had been available he would have been the logical target even at 9.5 per.

Trying to be as unbiased here as I can. That’s an interesting question. Tavares at $11 million was a discount at the time, and Carlson at $9.5 would be slightly overpaying. So you could overpay for a guy or get him cheap. That said, the overpayment would be in the team’s biggest area of need, whereas the discount is in their biggest position of strength. The one guy is a home town guy that really wants to play and win in Toronto, and is a great leader. This is a tough decision, but putting my biases against the Leafs and towards the Caps aside, I think that at the moment, if I were Dubas I would sign Tavares and figure the D out after.

You might want to consider at what position the Leafs would rather have...a RHD or centre but really Carlsson was virtually unsignable to the Leafs and most teams except Washington

Let's look Tavares. Apparently he was offered 13m by the Sharks. Isles were the only only team that could have offered an eight year contact. So Tavares took less overall NHL money to sign with team he actually wanted to play for, the Leafs.

Carlson. Only the Caps could offer him an eight year contract. So his overall NHL money probably was greatest in Washington. Even if the Leafs or any team had offered Carlson move in yearly salary, we have seen that isn't the only factor in a players destiny of choice. In Carlson's case, an American, his only pro teams the Caps, good to very good team. Looks like only a severe overpay would have persuaded him to leave the Caps.

I'll take Tavares as my player of choice as a UFA signing. Last season Marner played the RHD on PP, which is where is accumulated lots of assists/point .much like Carlson. So the Leafs have (though they never knew at the time) their RHD on the PP. Unfortunately the Leafs aren't using Marner at the right point as much this season (poor coaching choice) I'll never buy the argument that Kadri is a "2C". Almost half of his goals were scored on the PP as left winger with linemates Matthews and Nylander, so Tavares was needed to solidify the centre position
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Maybe the best choice the Leafs could have as UFA, would have been Barry Trotz. Having Babcock retired in Arizona would be the best way to improve the Leafs.

In a nutshell, just picking between tavares and carlson no other factors involved JUST the players. I think leafs would have been better suited to go after carlson.

oh man babcock is really killing their chances of winning a cup lol.

Tavares all day every day. Who'd you rather have on your team: Tavares and Rielly or Carlson and Rielly? I realize hindsight is 20/20, but I think it was a relatively easy decision.

Just think about how much less valuable Morgan Rielly would be as the Leafs #2 D. He certainly wouldn't have been a Norris contender last season and he's under contract at an incredible value of $5M. Carlson would relegate Rielly to a much less integral role.

As we've seen with the acquisition of Tyson Barrie, when you add a top PP defenseman to your team and don't play him on the top PP, he struggles offensively. Carlson would take over the top PP slot and Rielly would suffer offensively. Just look at how little of an impact Tyson Barrie has had offensively. I think he has 4 points! He needs to be top PP fixture to be successful. There's only so much ice time to go around. Dubas needs to compliment Rielly w/ defensively responsible defensemen. Having multiple #1 PP Defensemen often proves redundant and ineffective.

My point is: Had TOR acquired Carlson, Barrie would've never reached his potential. Now, they have an awesome #1 D for $5M AAV instead of, as you suggest, $9.5M AAV. Had Dubas built his D responsibly around Rielly, the Leafs would be much better off with Rielly and Tavares instead of Rielly and Carlson.

I agree that Babcock is not managing this team properly. Barrie has not been put in a position to succeed in Toronto. I never liked that trade. Can't really blame Babcock alone for Barrie's offensive decline. On paper it looked great, but Barrie is never gonna explode offensively playing on the 2nd PP. And the Leafs are never gonna advance far in the playoffs, if they even get there, with there current D.

Barrie came after they signed carlsson. reverse that barrie trade and keep kadri... so then you end up with matthews kadri as your centers and reilly carlsson muzzin dermott as your dmen. Im not a leafs fan at all, but their defense is terrible. they could roll muzzin/carlsson and reilly and a 4th stay at home dman (much more cost friendly) with dermott and a filler as their bottom pairing. Tavares is great but is he putting you over the proverbial hump? i dont think so. also that 1.5m in cap savings allows you to go get that 4th cheaper dman or keep connor brown. Honestly they could have put reilly with carlson, kept zaitsev with muzzin and let him play his offensive game that babcock wouldnt let him play and go from there.

I wonder how much input and influence Babcock has/had on the formation of this roster. You’d think he’s had quite a bit, but I don’t really know. I just find it hard to believe that a supposed defensively minded coach would be onboard with Barrie. Especially considering the low percentage of O-zone starts that he gets compared to Rielly. Barrie seems to be set up to fail in Toronto. And Babcock is clearly coaching for his job this season.