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Nashville Predators signed Roman Josi (8 Years / $9,059,000 AAV)

Was this a good signing?
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Oct 29, 2019 at 4:29
#76
The evil stats guy
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Quoting: Capitalfail67
who are you? is this randoms burner account? bc outside that why do you care about my conversation with him? hes also liking all your comments? next time just use one account. its embarrassing you need 2 accounts to bail yourself out of a terrible take on a player


ill make a graph for you next time. to show why hes not in decline haha


People laugh at you for being an idiot so they must all be a burner account. I am glad you think I have that much sway though!
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Oct 29, 2019 at 4:32
#77
BuFfaLoFan
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Quoting: Random2152
Do you have any evidence to back that up? You'd be a hero in the stats community.
Playing style certainly does affect it, but age is the primary factor.


Obviously age is a huge part in it, it's also a part in every persons life. I am just saying look at the players 38+ who's still play there is not a lot but the ones who do play similar style to Josi.

My argument if you want to call it that is Josi had the Characteristics of a elite player who will drag his career on because of his playing style.

But don't tell me that Doughty or Karlsson will make it as far as Josi because Doughty plays 2 hard and is decreasing and Karlsson has had major injuries in the past that have affected him.
Oct 29, 2019 at 4:33
#78
Caps fan idk why
Joined: Dec 2016
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Quoting: Random2152
People laugh at you for being an idiot so they must all be a burner account. I am glad you think I have that much sway though!


im the idiot? you made a claim that nhl players peak at 26-27......yeah solid point. haha

not a hard claim ...you guys use the same wording and he literally commented on a conversation to help bail you out when you ran into a wall. but hey whatever helps you feel like you made a good point. ha its sad
Oct 29, 2019 at 4:35
#79
The evil stats guy
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Quoting: Capitalfail67
im the idiot? you made a claim that nhl players peak at 26-27......yeah solid point. haha


I made a claim and backed it up with mountains of data. The researchers of which are now either working in the NHL for teams or are top public stats guys.
You have the profound argument of "lol no"
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Oct 29, 2019 at 4:36
#80
best poster
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i am his burner account by the way
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Oct 29, 2019 at 4:37
#81
The evil stats guy
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Quoting: BuFfaLOFaN
Obviously age is a huge part in it, it's also a part in every persons life. I am just saying look at the players 38+ who's still play there is not a lot but the ones who do play similar style to Josi.

My argument if you want to call it that is Josi had the Characteristics of a elite player who will drag his career on because of his playing style.

But don't tell me that Doughty or Karlsson will make it as far as Josi because Doughty plays 2 hard and is decreasing and Karlsson has had major injuries in the past that have affected him.


As I said it is certainly a factor, but it isn't the primary one. The mistake you are making when you make your claim is called survivor bias. It is where you only look at those still playing and not those of the same play style who aren't and make your conclusions from that biased sample.
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Oct 29, 2019 at 4:37
#82
Caps fan idk why
Joined: Dec 2016
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Quoting: Random2152
I made a claim and backed it up with mountains of data. The researchers of which are now either working in the NHL for teams or are top public stats guys.
You have the profound argument of "lol no"


you copied and pasted a graph of averages..... it compares players like Bartkowski to players like gio and finds a numbers in-between .....mountains of data haha. get over yourself
Oct 29, 2019 at 4:41
#83
BuFfaLoFan
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Quoting: Random2152
As I said it is certainly a factor, but it isn't the primary one. The mistake you are making when you make your claim is called survivor bias. It is where you only look at those still playing and not those of the same play style who aren't and make your conclusions from that biased sample.


Yea, for sure ... I think that the last 2 years if his contract won't be worth 9m, but hear me out on this Would it be worth it if he was getting paid 6m? Cap* In years 2 come I expect the Cap to go up a decent amount, so would the amount of 9m be not really "9m" in perspective to the Cap it is now vs later ...? Just a thought. I agree mostly with you except when you say it will be a bad contract most of the time.
Oct 29, 2019 at 4:42
#84
The evil stats guy
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Quoting: Capitalfail67
you copied and pasted a graph of averages..... it compares players like Bartkowski to players like gio and finds a numbers in-between .....mountains of data haha. get over yourself


You clearly do not understand that the numbers are all relative. It doesn't matter how good a player is, the study tracks their play in relation to their best selves. The averages apply equally to star talent as it does to depth.

Get over yourself.
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Oct 29, 2019 at 4:46
#85
The evil stats guy
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Quoting: BuFfaLOFaN
Yea, for sure ... I think that the last 2 years if his contract won't be worth 9m, but hear me out on this Would it be worth it if he was getting paid 6m? Cap* In years 2 come I expect the Cap to go up a decent amount, so would the amount of 9m be not really "9m" in perspective to the Cap it is now vs later ...? Just a thought. I agree mostly with you except when you say it will be a bad contract most of the time.


The way I look at it is like so:
Is he a 9 million dollar player?
Is he tomorrow?
How about the day after that?

If he is an 8 million dollar player in 2 years, he is not worth his contract as he is being overpaid relative to his worth. When I say he won't be worth his contract for the majority of it, I don't mean he will be bad, just that he will be an 8 mil player for some of it. The reason it is a bad contract is because for the majority of it, you are paying a player 9 mil when they are worth less than that (significantly less as he gets older).

Just as an aside, I am being generous calling Josi a 9 mil player right now. The stats nerds actually say he is WAY overpaid right now. That certainly doesn't help in my evaluation of his future worth.


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Oct 29, 2019 at 4:50
#86
Joined: Mar 2017
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Sets the market for Pietrangelo.
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Oct 29, 2019 at 4:52
#87
Vrana cookie?
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The amount of average or below average players far exceeds that of the elite player. The ratio is greatly skewed. So a graph showing the average of ALL players isn't as useful as you think when you're discussing ELITE talent like Carlson or Josi. Will Carlson keep up a point per game pace for the entire rest of his contract? Probably not, but that doesn't make his 8x8 contract bad.

Hell you could even have said Ovechkin's contract was bad at 13x9.5 back when he signed it in 2008, as that was going to keep him signed through his 35th year. The thing is, is that Ovechkin isn't average, and averages don't apply to him. He's actually an alien sent here to entertain us hockey nerds and show how goal scoring should really be done. Just check Ovechkin's goal average per season. It doesn't move. wink

The only regret the Caps owner has with that contract is that he didn't make it 15 years. That's remarkable. But see, Ovi isn't a typical player that can be measured and compared to with average graphs. I would like to see graphs of declines of ELITE talent, however.
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Oct 29, 2019 at 4:53
#88
The evil stats guy
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Quoting: CD282
Sets the market for Pietrangelo.


People around the league seem to think that Piet is actually going to come cheaper than Josi so we will see. Things could get very interesting if he hits UFA.
https://theathletic.com/1320818/2019/10/25/lebrun-whats-a-fair-deal-for-roman-josi-and-alex-pietrangelo-executives-and-agents-share-their-thoughts/
Oct 29, 2019 at 4:57
#89
The evil stats guy
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Quoting: Kylonetic8
The amount of average or below average players far exceeds that of the elite player. The ratio is greatly skewed. So a graph showing the average of ALL players isn't as useful as you think when you're discussing ELITE talent like Carlson or Josi. Will Carlson keep up a point per game pace for the entire rest of his contract? Probably not, but that doesn't make his 8x8 contract bad.

Hell you could even have said Ovechkin's contract was bad at 13x9.5 back when he signed it in 2008, as that was going to keep him signed through his 35th year. The thing is, is that Ovechkin isn't average, and averages don't apply to him. He's actually an alien sent here to entertain us hockey nerds and show how goal scoring should really be done. Just check Ovechkin's goal average per season. It doesn't move. wink

The only regret the Caps owner has with that contract is that he didn't make it 15 years. That's remarkable. But see, Ovi isn't a typical player that can be measured and compared to with average graphs. I would like to see graphs of declines of ELITE talent, however.


The way the numbers are compiled ensure that the actual talent level of the player doesn't factor into it as much as you seem to think. Each player is compared to themselves and how they do in relation to their best self. That difference is what is used to make up the average. What that means is that the numbers are self adjusting to account for things like skill level, so the averages are applicable to them. If you are interested you can read more in depth on how they calculated it here:
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Oct 29, 2019 at 4:59
#90
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Quoting: Random2152
The way the numbers are compiled ensure that the actual talent level of the player doesn't factor into it as much as you seem to think. Each player is compared to themselves and how they do in relation to their best self. That difference is what is used to make up the average. What that means is that the numbers are self adjusting to account for things like skill level, so the averages are applicable to them. If you are interested you can read more in depth on how they calculated it here:


If that's accurate to this graph, then it's more useful than I thought. When I'm feeling nerdy I'll read more.
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Oct 29, 2019 at 5:00
#91
The evil stats guy
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Quoting: Kylonetic8
If that's accurate to this graph, then it's more useful than I thought. When I'm feeling nerdy I'll read more.


Always appreciate an open mind!
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Oct 29, 2019 at 5:31
#92
Joined: Mar 2019
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Quoting: Random2152
I'm sure there is, but generally it is not something that gets done due to sample size issues. I'm not home right now but I'll try and find something for you. If I had to guess a superstar can usually keep up their peak play until ~30 ish and stave off a drop off until 32 ish


I think there's more cases of above average players being still worth their cap hit until the mid-30s. Suter, Weber, Burns, Wheeler, Giordano, Byfuglien (current situation overlooked of course..), and Keith are all guys who immediately come to mind as being above average to elite players who were or still are worth their cap hit well into their 30s. That's overlooking guys like Crosby or Ovechkin who are in a class all their own. The Preds lock up a big part of their team at a cap hit that should allow them to remain a threat for the next 4-5 years and honestly that's all that matters. I'd be far more worried about Rinne falling off before Saros is ready to be a full-time starter or Turris being a $6m 3rd liner before I'd worry about Josi in 6 years.
Oct 29, 2019 at 5:38
#93
The evil stats guy
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Quoting: JayTea
I think there's more cases of above average players being still worth their cap hit until the mid-30s. Suter, Weber, Burns, Wheeler, Giordano, Byfuglien (current situation overlooked of course..), and Keith are all guys who immediately come to mind as being above average to elite players who were or still are worth their cap hit well into their 30s. That's overlooking guys like Crosby or Ovechkin who are in a class all their own. The Preds lock up a big part of their team at a cap hit that should allow them to remain a threat for the next 4-5 years and honestly that's all that matters. I'd be far more worried about Rinne falling off before Saros is ready to be a full-time starter or Turris being a $6m 3rd liner before I'd worry about Josi in 6 years.


Did you notice how many players you just listed are either on illegal contracts or simply have reasonable cap hits?
Also, Keith has been bad for a few years now.
And again, the exception does not invalidate the rule.
Over 1000 players played in the NHL last year, 699 of them played over 20 games and you are only able to list me a handful of them that may break the mould (but really don't). See line 3
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Oct 29, 2019 at 5:43
#94
Joined: Dec 2017
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EK or Josi straight up? I'll take Josi all day every day. Now factor in the $2.5M discount for Josi. WOW!!! Not even close.

BTW...EK is on pace for 60 points and a plus/minus of -82 this season, lol. Josi is on pace for 97 points and a plus/minus of +60!!!

I realize these numbers will not project over a full season, but I think they help illustrate an obvious gap between the two star D-men.
Oct 29, 2019 at 5:48
#95
Joined: Mar 2019
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Quoting: Random2152
Did you notice how many players you just listed are either on illegal contracts or simply have reasonable cap hits?
Also, Keith has been bad for a few years now.
And again, the exception does not invalidate the rule.
Over 1000 players played in the NHL last year, 699 of them played over 20 games and you are only able to list me a handful of them that may break the mould (but really don't). See line 3


The structure of the contract is irrelevant. The age of the player and their peak level of play is the topic. There haven't been 1000 top level players, so anything else you said after that isn't relevant. I don't care to compare how Brooks Orpik was a healthy scratch who got bought out before his deal ended, because he's not in the same league as the guys I mentioned. Most top level guys are good until around 35, with some exceptions.
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Oct 29, 2019 at 5:51
#96
Joined: Dec 2017
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Quoting: Random2152
Did you notice how many players you just listed are either on illegal contracts or simply have reasonable cap hits?
Also, Keith has been bad for a few years now.
And again, the exception does not invalidate the rule.
Over 1000 players played in the NHL last year, 699 of them played over 20 games and you are only able to list me a handful of them that may break the mould (but really don't). See line 3


I've found that star players rarely turn out to be buyout candidates. It's usually the 30 y.o. $5M-$6M players that decline rapidly and require trades or buyouts. Guys who rely too much on skating are usually the players who decline the most.
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Oct 29, 2019 at 6:04
#97
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Quoting: Random2152
A players peak years END at 26-27 y/o.
A player goes into serious decline around 30.
Josi will be 30 when this 8 year 9.059 contract STARTS.
He is a fantastic dman, of that there is no doubt but expecting him to be worth it past the first couple years is ludicrous. This is a bad deal through and through.


This is a lot of truth to this, but it is also looking at players as a whole. You can slot some players in there and say, the model does not fit. You can look at a player like Bergeron or Crosby or OV and say none of them "fit" the model. But that doesn't mean their production doesn't decline, it's that they are so talented they are still better than everyone else. Even at 32 Crosby is a top 5 center in the NHL. I don't think anyone would argue that.

Having said that, there is a lot of truth to this. If you are not an elite player, you tend to find your way out of the NHL by age 30.
As for elite level players they tend to play well into their mid 30s. and by mid 30s I mean 33-34-35 age range. After that the wheels fall off like on everyone else at some point, the only question is when and if they can extend their career playing easier minutes still being better than a 24 year old bottom 6 guy.

I too don't think this was a good contract. I don't think he's elite like those guys. Signing this guy to 37 is not a solid move. Smart teams are starting to cut contracts off at the 32-33 year range.
Only bad GM who haven't figured it out are extending beyond that for any significant length.
Hockey has a window problem for sure. It's not like the NBA or NFL. It takes time to learn how to play hockey, learn to skate.
It's hard for a player to come in at 18 or 20. Most need to develop by the time they reach the NHL they are 22 or older. Which is why teams aren't waiting as long to develop players anymore.
You either have it or you don't. If you are a winger and not on the ice in the NHL by 22 now your odds of getting there is remarkably lower today than it was just 10 years ago.
A huge part of that is they know you are developing in your peak years instead of playing. If you are just good enough to break into the league at 25 you are pretty much done before you even started.
Who want's to waste time with that.
Oct 29, 2019 at 6:08
#98
The evil stats guy
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Quoting: JayTea
The structure of the contract is irrelevant. The age of the player and their peak level of play is the topic. There haven't been 1000 top level players, so anything else you said after that isn't relevant. I don't care to compare how Brooks Orpik was a healthy scratch who got bought out before his deal ended, because he's not in the same league as the guys I mentioned. Most top level guys are good until around 35, with some exceptions.


No. You have it Back Asswards. Most top level guys are 'good' until ~32 with some exceptions. You are deliberately ignoring huge sections of what used to be very good players to make your argument.

And the structure of the contract does matter as we are talking about whether or not a player is worth their cap hit. When you have GM's skirting around the rules to get lower AAV's, ofc the player is going to be worth their deal longer, because the aav is artificially lower. You want to know how to tell if those contracts are good or not though? Ask who will take the contracts. Try and move them. Even though their aav is fine, the deals are bad because of the (say it with me as it has been the whole argument of this thread) TERM
Oct 29, 2019 at 6:09
#99
The evil stats guy
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Quoting: Brian2016
I've found that star players rarely turn out to be buyout candidates. It's usually the 30 y.o. $5M-$6M players that decline rapidly and require trades or buyouts. Guys who rely too much on skating are usually the players who decline the most.


Vlasic, Karlsson, Orpik (% of cap and remember what he was at the time of signing), etc
Oct 29, 2019 at 6:14
#100
The evil stats guy
Joined: Jun 2018
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Edited Oct 29, 2019 at 6:22
Very rarely do we mostly agree. I could nit pick but quite frankly I'm just gonna go with it.... Well I might just drop this nuke lol.

Quoting: pharrow
Even at 32 Crosby is a top 5 center in the NHL. I don't think anyone would argue that.


Ummmm.... Actually the stats nerds are starting to argue with that too. Crosby has been declining you know. He is obviously still hella good though.




Quoting: pharrow
This is a lot of truth to this, but it is also looking at players as a whole. You can slot some players in there and say, the model does not fit. You can look at a player like Bergeron or Crosby or OV and say none of them "fit" the model. But that doesn't mean their production doesn't decline, it's that they are so talented they are still better than everyone else. Even at 32 Crosby is a top 5 center in the NHL. I don't think anyone would argue that.

Having said that, there is a lot of truth to this. If you are not an elite player, you tend to find your way out of the NHL by age 30.
As for elite level players they tend to play well into their mid 30s. and by mid 30s I mean 33-34-35 age range. After that the wheels fall off like on everyone else at some point, the only question is when and if they can extend their career playing easier minutes still being better than a 24 year old bottom 6 guy.

I too don't think this was a good contract. I don't think he's elite like those guys. Signing this guy to 37 is not a solid move. Smart teams are starting to cut contracts off at the 32-33 year range.
Only bad GM who haven't figured it out are extending beyond that for any significant length.
Hockey has a window problem for sure. It's not like the NBA or NFL. It takes time to learn how to play hockey, learn to skate.
It's hard for a player to come in at 18 or 20. Most need to develop by the time they reach the NHL they are 22 or older. Which is why teams aren't waiting as long to develop players anymore.
You either have it or you don't. If you are a winger and not on the ice in the NHL by 22 now your odds of getting there is remarkably lower today than it was just 10 years ago.
A huge part of that is they know you are developing in your peak years instead of playing. If you are just good enough to break into the league at 25 you are pretty much done before you even started.
Who want's to waste time with that.
 
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