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Nashville Predators signed Roman Josi (8 Years / $9,059,000 AAV)

Was this a good signing?
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Oct 29 at 6:24
#101
Joined: Mar 2019
Posts: 918
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Quoting: Random2152
No. You have it Back Asswards. Most top level guys are 'good' until ~32 with some exceptions. You are deliberately ignoring huge sections of what used to be very good players to make your argument.

And the structure of the contract does matter as we are talking about whether or not a player is worth their cap hit. When you have GM's skirting around the rules to get lower AAV's, ofc the player is going to be worth their deal longer, because the aav is artificially lower. You want to know how to tell if those contracts are good or not though? Ask who will take the contracts. Try and move them. Even though their aav is fine, the deals are bad because of the (say it with me as it has been the whole argument of this thread) TERM


Oh I'm not arguing that Josi or the guys I mentioned won't be bad before they're done. In most cases, it's already started. My whole point was they were still very good players into their 30s and they didn't start to noticeably decline at 26-27 or whatever you were saying. My entire point was great players are more likely to sustain a high level of player longer than league average or below, that's all. That's why the whole structure of the contract isn't relevant to the conversation. Most of what you're saying in general I agree with, I just don't think the Preds will regret this signing overall.
Oct 29 at 6:27
#102
The evil stats guy
Joined: Jun 2018
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Quoting: JayTea
Oh I'm not arguing that Josi or the guys I mentioned won't be bad before they're done. In most cases, it's already started. My whole point was they were still very good players into their 30s and they didn't start to noticeably decline at 26-27 or whatever you were saying. My entire point was great players are more likely to sustain a high level of player longer than league average or below, that's all. That's why the whole structure of the contract isn't relevant to the conversation. Most of what you're saying in general I agree with, I just don't think the Preds will regret this signing overall.


You realise that a declining player, especially a super star is still very good right?
Shea Weber is a perfect example right now. He is not in his peak form but he has been and continues to decline with age. The research and what I have been saying is that their best years end ~27, and decline starts to really happen ~30. That doesn't mean they are bad, just not in peak form anymore.

What NSH have done is paid Josi as if he were still in his peak form, and as if he will be for the next 8 years. That is why this is a bad contract.
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Oct 29 at 6:29
#103
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 7,313
Likes: 1,475
Quoting: Random2152
Very rarely do we mostly agree. I could nit pick but quite frankly I'm just gonna go with it.... Well other than this nuke lol.



Ummmm.... Actually the stats nerds are starting to argue with that too. Crosby has been declining you know. He is obviously still hella good though.




2,3,4 are not centers, they are wingers.

And even Marchand there is 31.

Which kind of defeats what you want to prove there.

There is also more to playing than points. Bergeron is not a points guy. But he's a guy you still want on the dot when it counts and his line is highly successful because of him.

It's not a question of when a player peeks. Its a question of are they still better not at peek than everyone else around them.
Crosby is well past his peek, everyone knows that. But a past peek Crosby is still better than what 29 or 28 teams have at center.
Then you consider he's still playing the best competition. He'll easily be able to whip the snot out of a 3C at this point in his career. So you can say he can probably play till he's 35-36 all be it in smaller roles as a 3C at some point.

I think there are a few things that make a player last longer. Size, like thornton, Chara or Jagr. It's just a huge natural advantage with their athleticism. I would have loved a 34 year old Chara on a team, and so would you. At 40+ it's a bit different but that's unreal age for a hockey player. Hand eye co-ordination. That's how you end up with a Crosby or Bergeron. Lastly speed. Which applies to all players. This is the factor that usually drives great players out. They no longer have the legs. They slide down playing slower players till eventually they can't even keep up with them. Which is why a player like Chara is basically done. Thornton plays a 3C role now, and eventually Crosby and Bergeron will be doing the same.

But at their age that's all those players have to work on, every off season. They can get a little lighter, extend it out. You can hold your speed until your mid 30s. There is all kind of evidence to that. There is video of a 38 year old ochocinco running 4.4 40 yard dashes.

The last is of course luck, to avoid injury.

The point being if you are simply a superior athlete in those areas you are going to remain successful beyond a replacement. The problem is there are few players who really are. You have to be extremely gifted to be that way. Most simply are not. They have to work for it and eventually the work isn't enough.
Oct 29 at 6:34
#104
Joined: May 2019
Posts: 399
Likes: 175
Predators have off season concern #1 checked off their list early in the season which is good for the team (cost certainty and ability to plan) and the player (no worries about injuries affecting his pay day). I think the Preds will be happy with at least the first half of the deal (cheaper than Karlsson & Doughty), but they are also likely counting on him remaining a top defender into his mid 30's as I don't think cap inflation will allow teams to pay $9M to a mid pairing defender & PP QB, which he is bound to regress to at some point during this contract. I feel that Nashville's window is within the next few years, so I think keeping their top defender from going to UFA makes this a fair signing.
Oct 29 at 6:35
#105
Joined: Mar 2019
Posts: 918
Likes: 651
Quoting: Random2152
You realise that a declining player, especially a super star is still very good right?
Shea Weber is a perfect example right now. He is not in his peak form but he has been and continues to decline with age. The research and what I have been saying is that their best years end ~27, and decline starts to really happen ~30. That doesn't mean they are bad, just not in peak form anymore.


And that's what I was originally asking about. Are there any good charts that show how an exceptional players ages? Using the player I'm most familiar with since I'm geographically a Wild fan, Ryan Suter didn't seem to show any noticeable slowdown in his game until his ankle injury and that was about 2 years ago. Not sure where the chart you originally used came from, but again, I'd be interested to see if that data can be somehow filtered to only look at the top 10% of league. That's probably hard because it's easy to argue about who that is.
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Oct 29 at 6:37
#106
The evil stats guy
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 4,187
Likes: 1,751
Quoting: pharrow
2,3,4 are not centers, they are wingers.

And even Marchand there is 31.

Which kind of defeats what you want to prove there.

There is also more to playing than points. Bergeron is not a points guy. But he's a guy you still want on the dot when it counts and his line is highly successful because of him.

It's not a question of when a player peeks. Its a question of are they still better not at peek than everyone else around them.
Crosby is well past his peek, everyone knows that. But a past peek Crosby is still better than what 29 or 28 teams have at center.
Then you consider he's still playing the best competition. He'll easily be able to whip the snot out of a 3C at this point in his career. So you can say he can probably play till he's 35-36 all be it in smaller roles as a 3C at some point.

I think there are a few things that make a player last longer. Size, like thornton, Chara or Jagr. It's just a huge natural advantage with their athleticism. I would have loved a 34 year old Chara on a team, and so would you. At 40+ it's a bit different but that's unreal age for a hockey player. Hand eye co-ordination. That's how you end up with a Crosby or Bergeron. Lastly speed. Which applies to all players. This is the factor that usually drives great players out. They no longer have the legs. They slide down playing slower players till eventually they can't even keep up with them. Which is why a player like Chara is basically done. Thornton plays a 3C role now, and eventually Crosby and Bergeron will be doing the same.

But at their age that's all those players have to work on, every off season. They can get a little lighter, extend it out. You can hold your speed until your mid 30s. There is all kind of evidence to that. There is a 38 year old ochocinco running 4.4 40 yard dashes.

The last is of course luck, to avoid injury.

The point being if you are simply a superior athlete in those areas you are going to remain successful beyond a replacement. The problem is there are few players who really are. You have to be extremely gifted to be that way. Most simply are not. They have to work for it and eventually the work isn't enough.


I feel like you could have said this more succinctly but I'll have a go.
1) Didn't not realise you said centres, even so he is in decline and is no longer the best or 2nd best player (a lot of Pens fans got really mad at this tweet)
2) I know Crosby is still hella good (5th best player in the NHL), the argument on peak ages was about contracts and paying stars in relation to this Josi contract (which is a bad one)
3) As I have said many times in this thread, exceptions do not invalidate the rule - Marchand included.
4) I want to be clear. Just because a player is in decline doesn't mean they are bad. It just means that you shouldn't pay them as if they were at their peak, hence why this convo is in a contract thread.

In terms of what causes the regression, it is mostly just the players body breaking down. Play style can certainly accelerate or hold it off but plain old age is the main factor.
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Oct 29 at 6:39
#107
The evil stats guy
Joined: Jun 2018
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Likes: 1,751
Edited Oct 29 at 6:46
Quoting: JayTea
And that's what I was originally asking about. Are there any good charts that show how an exceptional players ages? Using the player I'm most familiar with since I'm geographically a Wild fan, Ryan Suter didn't seem to show any noticeable slowdown in his game until his ankle injury and that was about 2 years ago. Not sure where the chart you originally used came from, but again, I'd be interested to see if that data can be somehow filtered to only look at the top 10% of league. That's probably hard because it's easy to argue about who that is.


Oh Suter has been in decline from his peak play for years. Yes he is still very good but he is still in decline (just look at his metrics over that span, as well as the fact that his body has been giving out on him injury wise). I haven't been able to find specific charts detailing it, but the ones I posted are just delta WAR comparisons, so you can easily chart Suter out for yourself. You have to remember that the charts I posted are just the following put together for a ton of players, so it accounts for Stars mostly the same due to them being compared with themselves.
(look at his WAR, see how much it went up or down as a % year to year and chart that).

Edit: I am looking at year over year war for Suter and it looks like the last two years have been extreme anomalies for him. He WAS declining steadily but it seems to have not only reverted but gone WAY up. I would have to run his numbers through a regression model and isolate his impact to be sure but his raw adv numbers look good these last 2 years.
Oct 29 at 6:43
#108
Joined: Dec 2017
Posts: 1,700
Likes: 700
Quoting: Random2152
Vlasic, Karlsson, Orpik (% of cap and remember what he was at the time of signing), etc


Karlsson is in a unique situation. I believe his precipitous decline is due in large part to his injury troubles. He still has great instincts and playmaking ability, but his skating has really hindered his ability to defend. 3 years ago, he was better able to recover from neutral zone turnovers. His skating has really been exposed in SJ. He's a major liability defensively. Vlasic and Orpik were never elite players. They were great defensively at their peaks, but never great playmakers and skaters. The league is faster than ever before and I feel like the best D's are often the best skaters.
Oct 29 at 6:47
#109
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 7,313
Likes: 1,475
Quoting: Random2152
I feel like you could have said this more succinctly but I'll have a go.
1) Didn't not realise you said centres, even so he is in decline and is no longer the best or 2nd best player (a lot of Pens fans got really mad at this tweet)
2) I know Crosby is still hella good (5th best player in the NHL), the argument on peak ages was about contracts and paying stars in relation to this Josi contract (which is a bad one)
3) As I have said many times in this thread, exceptions do not invalidate the rule - Marchand included.
4) I want to be clear. Just because a player is in decline doesn't mean they are bad. It just means that you shouldn't pay them as if they were at their peak, hence why this convo is in a contract thread.

In terms of what causes the regression, it is mostly just the players body breaking down. Play style can certainly accelerate or hold it off but plain old age is the main factor.


I'm not going to nit pick because on the bottom line we agree. It's not a good contract.
My point being though, that he's not an elite player. Which is why it's not a good contract.
If I had faith he could play well till 34 like a Bergeron still a 1C, I might say ok, you have to swallow some cap later to get him now. I'd be ok with that. If you could predict that in the future. Yeah he might only be a 1C for 5 or 6 years but the last two years won't be horrible so it's ok.
But I do not see that for him.
I see the end of this contract being an anchor.
Which is more the point I was making.
I would have had no problem paying a 29 year old Bergeron a good 8 year deal. You get 5-6 great years out of it and it's worth it.
Nashville isn't going to get 5-6 great years out of this.
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Oct 29 at 6:50
#110
Joined: Dec 2017
Posts: 1,700
Likes: 700
Quoting: Random2152
You realise that a declining player, especially a super star is still very good right?
Shea Weber is a perfect example right now. He is not in his peak form but he has been and continues to decline with age. The research and what I have been saying is that their best years end ~27, and decline starts to really happen ~30. That doesn't mean they are bad, just not in peak form anymore.

What NSH have done is paid Josi as if he were still in his peak form, and as if he will be for the next 8 years. That is why this is a bad contract.


If what you say is true, from a NSH perspective, they think Josi will be with more than $9M for the first few years of the contract and worth less in the last few years. Essentially, it'll balance itself out over the 8 years. Would you rather them let Josi walk away as a UFA? He absolutely would get the full 7 years as a UFA. And if he has a big season, he'd probably get over $10M AAV too. Just b/c it's a long term mistake doesn't mean someone won't pay him!
Oct 29 at 6:51
#111
The evil stats guy
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 4,187
Likes: 1,751
Quoting: Brian2016
Karlsson is in a unique situation. I believe his precipitous decline is due in large part to his injury troubles. He still has great instincts and playmaking ability, but his skating has really hindered his ability to defend. 3 years ago, he was better able to recover from neutral zone turnovers. His skating has really been exposed in SJ. He's a major liability defensively. Vlasic and Orpik were never elite players. They were great defensively at their peaks, but never great playmakers and skaters. The league is faster than ever before and I feel like the best D's are often the best skaters.


You are literally just ignoring players that don't fit in with your world view. Vlasic was a premier DFD in his prime and he has been in precipitous decline for awhile now.
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Oct 29 at 6:51
#112
Joined: Apr 2017
Posts: 6,210
Likes: 1,297
Quoting: Random2152
Also, Keith has been bad for a few years now.


That is a huge stretch to not only call him "bad" but to call him "bad for a few years now". Give me a break...Toronto would have been a hell of a lot better the last few years with Keith on their team.
Oct 29 at 6:55
#113
The evil stats guy
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 4,187
Likes: 1,751
Quoting: Brian2016
If what you say is true, from a NSH perspective, they think Josi will be with more than $9M for the first few years of the contract and worth less in the last few years. Essentially, it'll balance itself out over the 8 years.


Why would NSH think that? There is little reason to.

Quoting: Brian2016
Would you rather them let Josi walk away as a UFA?


Yes, although they should have moved him for a dragon's haul to replace him. Could probs get Byram from COL (assuming trade was made with an extension).

Quoting: Brian2016
He absolutely would get the full 7 years as a UFA. And if he has a big season, he'd probably get over $10M AAV too. Just b/c it's a long term mistake doesn't mean someone won't pay him!


Just because other people are jumping off a bridge doesn't mean you should too.
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Oct 29 at 6:58
#114
The evil stats guy
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 4,187
Likes: 1,751
Quoting: ChiHawk
That is a huge stretch to not only call him "bad" but to call him "bad for a few years now". Give me a break...Toronto would have been a hell of a lot better the last few years with Keith on their team.


Huhhhhhhhhh. This is going to be Carlson 2.0 isn't it?
EIFMAr9XkAEGIyM?format=png&name=900x900
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Oct 29 at 7:02
#115
Joined: Apr 2017
Posts: 6,210
Likes: 1,297
Quoting: Random2152
Huhhhhhhhhh. This is going to be Carlson 2.0 isn't it?
EIFMAr9XkAEGIyM?format=png&name=900x900


You said Keith has been bad for a few years now....that is totally incorrect and you don't know what you're talking about if you try to convince people of that.
Oct 29 at 7:03
#116
The evil stats guy
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 4,187
Likes: 1,751
Quoting: ChiHawk
You said Keith has been bad for a few years now....that is totally incorrect and you don't know what you're talking about if you try to convince people of that.


Please continue to ignore the evidence presented, and while you are doing that why don't you just ignore me. It'll make both our nights better.
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Oct 29 at 7:26
#117
Earfgang
Joined: Oct 2019
Posts: 41
Likes: 13
Quoting: Random2152
People around the league seem to think that Piet is actually going to come cheaper than Josi so we will see. Things could get very interesting if he hits UFA.
https://theathletic.com/1320818/2019/10/25/lebrun-whats-a-fair-deal-for-roman-josi-and-alex-pietrangelo-executives-and-agents-share-their-thoughts/


I think he will come cheaper but will also push for the 8 years, which he has absolutely earned with that cup he was a big part in winning so 8.5 mil x 8 years i would be fine with
Oct 29 at 7:37
#118
Joined: Apr 2017
Posts: 6,210
Likes: 1,297
Quoting: Random2152
Please continue to ignore the evidence presented, and while you are doing that why don't you just ignore me. It'll make both our nights better.


Like usual, you're making lots of friends here because you say dump stuff like "Keith has been bad for several years now" and then attack someone when you get called on it. Oblivious...
Oct 29 at 7:45
#119
Joined: Aug 2017
Posts: 1,499
Likes: 473
Edited Oct 29 at 7:56
Quoting: Random2152
You need to keep up with the research bud
war-basic-chart.png?w=615
evo-war-graph.png?w=615


Quoting: JohnMeston
Some random graphs lmao that means literally nothing bud


Random graphs ... that displays how NHL players offensive output declines with age.

"The title literally states what it means bud"

You're acting as if the dude threw out some some wack AF opinion ... all he did was post a visual representation of verified data (with a massive sample size).

You just trolled yourself my man.
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Oct 29 at 7:54
#120
Joined: Aug 2017
Posts: 1,499
Likes: 473
Quoting: ChiHawk
...Toronto would have been a hell of a lot better the last few years with Keith on their team.


Nah bro we got Ceci ... we're good.
Oct 29 at 8:02
#121
Earfgang
Joined: Oct 2019
Posts: 41
Likes: 13
Quoting: Random2152
Please continue to ignore the evidence presented, and while you are doing that why don't you just ignore me. It'll make both our nights better.


Listen, y'all are arguing things that are projections and not fact, you can measure by a thousand different measuring sticks and get a thousand different answers to the question of how fast a player will decline. Does a players WAR decrease as he passes 26? Yes. Does his value to his team decrease? Probably not significantly until an older age. Just because a player isn't scoring as many goals does not mean the player is less valuable. Ovechkin scored 65 when his WAR was probably at its highest when he was young, but he added a more well rounded game through his late 20's early 30's. Hes not an objectionably less valuable player just valuable in different ways that aren't as easily track able. (That older Ovechkin was able to get the caps a cup, the most offensively efficient one was not) For defense, sure they might lose a half a step when they are 30, but they are smarter positionally and more experienced in their own end by that point. We all agree the fall off is significantly more definitive in the 32-35 age range, but the rate of decline is different for all players and by that point Nashville's window will be likely closed and it will be a mute point.

If they win a cup in the next 3-4 years it was worth it, if they don't it wasn't. Simple as that, most likely Josi will be good for the next 4 years, maybe not as prolific on offense, but in other ways that he is weaker in now, so the question is, is that worth it too you?
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Oct 29 at 9:39
#122
LongtimeLeafsufferer
Joined: Jul 2015
Posts: 28,384
Likes: 6,487
Quoting: MadLin27
Yeah the 8 years is tough, but your other options were:

A) Sign him to 6-7 years for an outrageous caphit. Likely 11+
or
B) Let him walk

Had to be done. First half of the deal will be fine, second half could be rough


Who else has the cap or is even willing to give him 11m x 6 or 7? Not that I mind Preds giving him that contract if they think he worth long term, but can't think any team that would offer more.
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Oct 29 at 9:42
#123
Joined: Apr 2017
Posts: 6,210
Likes: 1,297
Quoting: drewjenks
Nah bro we got Ceci ... we're good.


laugh EXACTLY!
Oct 29 at 11:45
#124
Joined: Dec 2017
Posts: 1,700
Likes: 700
Quoting: Random2152
Why would NSH think that? There is little reason to.



Yes, although they should have moved him for a dragon's haul to replace him. Could probs get Byram from COL (assuming trade was made with an extension).



Just because other people are jumping off a bridge doesn't mean you should too.


Trade Josi??? HAHA!!! Seriously!?

Their Cup window is wide open now! Josi is their best player hands down.
Oct 29 at 11:58
#125
Joined: Nov 2018
Posts: 45
Likes: 18
Quoting: Random2152
I mean, you say that...
overall-war-f_d.png?w=615


I say that knowing that Josi is an elite D man. The averages of an entire league dilute the impact of the truly exceptional players. We can chart each other to death in this case. Show me Giordano's chart, Lidstrom's, or Chelios's. Some payers age better and I believe Josi will be one of those players... That is all
 
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