A players peak years END at 26-27 y/o.
A player goes into serious decline around 30.
Josi will be 30 when this 8 year 9.059 contract STARTS.
He is a fantastic dman, of that there is no doubt but expecting him to be worth it past the first couple years is ludicrous. This is a bad deal through and through.
This is a lot of truth to this, but it is also looking at players as a whole. You can slot some players in there and say, the model does not fit. You can look at a player like Bergeron or Crosby or OV and say none of them "fit" the model. But that doesn't mean their production doesn't decline, it's that they are so talented they are still better than everyone else. Even at 32 Crosby is a top 5 center in the NHL. I don't think anyone would argue that.
Having said that, there is a lot of truth to this. If you are not an elite player, you tend to find your way out of the NHL by age 30.
As for elite level players they tend to play well into their mid 30s. and by mid 30s I mean 33-34-35 age range. After that the wheels fall off like on everyone else at some point, the only question is when and if they can extend their career playing easier minutes still being better than a 24 year old bottom 6 guy.
I too don't think this was a good contract. I don't think he's elite like those guys. Signing this guy to 37 is not a solid move. Smart teams are starting to cut contracts off at the 32-33 year range.
Only bad GM who haven't figured it out are extending beyond that for any significant length.
Hockey has a window problem for sure. It's not like the NBA or NFL. It takes time to learn how to play hockey, learn to skate.
It's hard for a player to come in at 18 or 20. Most need to develop by the time they reach the NHL they are 22 or older. Which is why teams aren't waiting as long to develop players anymore.
You either have it or you don't. If you are a winger and not on the ice in the NHL by 22 now your odds of getting there is remarkably lower today than it was just 10 years ago.
A huge part of that is they know you are developing in your peak years instead of playing. If you are just good enough to break into the league at 25 you are pretty much done before you even started.
Who want's to waste time with that.