Forums/Armchair-GM

A Risto trade that makes sense for all involved

Initial Creation Date: Nov 5, 2019
Published: Nov 5 at 8:05 pm
Team: 2019-20 Montreal Canadiens
Team Explanation
I am fully aware of all the things Risto does poorly. His 5v5 defence is horrific, his contract is bloated, he can't drive play. These are real flaws, however, he does have one specialty: his PP numbers are legitimately elite. Montreal's powerplay is dead last in the league in 5v4 xGF/60 since the start of last year, and one of the issues is the lack of a natural quarterback for it. Petry's been around average in terms of impact there for the last few years, while Weber's been about 1/2 a standard deviation below. Risto's results, meanwhile, range from 1-2 SDs above average.

There's also something to be said that Risto's 5v5 impact could be improved with sheltering, and I'm not just talking about making his numbers look nicer while he's still dragging play. His offensive impact and shot contribution numbers have historically been around league average for his career. His fatal flaws have been entry denial and zone exits (big flaws for a defenseman, but still). With a team that excels in pinning the opponent in their own end as well as Montreal and VERY sheltered usage (made possible by the strong RD tandem ahead of him), those weaknesses could be covered and Risto could probably make league-average third-pair impact. Granted, that's not much, but for the right price, a 3RD/PP1 guy might be exactly what Montreal needs right now.

Buffalo does this deal because Risto's spot on PP1 will probably be lost to Dahlin as the latter matures, and they get a couple picks and save a little money in the process.

Alzner's incentive is that the crappier Buffalo d corps might net him another shot in the NHL, and Risto wins here because the sheltering will make him look a lot better and set him up well for contract number 3.
Trades
MTL
  1. Ristolainen, Rasmus
BUF
  1. Alzner, Karl
  2. 2020 2nd round pick (CHI)
  3. 2020 4th round pick (WPG)
Buyouts
  • Steve Mason: $1,366,667
Buried
  • Ben Chiarot: $2,425,000 ($3,500,000)
  • Dale Weise: $1,275,000 ($2,350,000)
  • Matthew Peca: $225,000 ($1,300,000)
DRAFT YEARROUND 1ROUND 2ROUND 3ROUND 4ROUND 5ROUND 6ROUND 7
2020
MTL
MTL
MTL
MTL
ANA
SJS
MTL
FLA
MTL
CHI
2021
MTL
MTL
MTL
CHI
MTL
MTL
MTL
2022
MTL
MTL
MTL
MTL
MTL
MTL
MTL
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES BONUSESCAP SPACE
23$81,500,000$75,993,809$0$3,775,000$5,506,191

Roster

Left WingCenterRight Wing
MTL
Drouin, Jonathan
$5,500,000
LW, RW, C
UFA - 4
MTL
Domi, Max
$3,150,000
C, LW
RFA - 1
MTL
Gallagher, Brendan
$3,750,000
RW
UFA - 2
MTL
Tatar, Tomas
$4,800,000
LW, RW
UFA - 2
MTL
Danault, Phillip
$3,083,333
C
UFA - 2
MTL
Lehkonen, Artturi
$2,400,000
LW, RW
RFA - 2
MTL
Byron, Paul
$3,400,000
LW, RW
UFA - 4
MTL
Kotkaniemi, Jesperi
$925,000
C, LW
RFA - 2
MTL
Armia, Joel
$2,600,000
RW
UFA - 2
MTL
Cousins, Nick
$1,000,000
C, LW
RFA - 1
MTL
Poehling, Ryan
$925,000
C
RFA - 2
MTL
Suzuki, Nick
$863,333
C, RW
RFA - 3
MTL
Thompson, Nate
$1,000,000
C
UFA - 1
MTL
Weal, Jordan
$1,400,000
C, RW, LW
UFA - 2
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
MTL
Kulak, Brett
$1,850,000
LD
UFA - 3
MTL
Petry, Jeff
$5,500,000
RD
NMC NTC
UFA - 2
MTL
Price, Carey
$10,500,000
G
NMC
UFA - 7
MTL
Mete, Victor
$748,333
LD
RFA - 1
MTL
Weber, Shea
$7,857,143
RD
UFA - 7
MTL
Kinkaid, Keith
$1,750,000
G
UFA - 1
MTL
Reilly, Mike
$1,500,000
LD
UFA - 2
BUF
Ristolainen, Rasmus
$5,400,000
RD
UFA - 3
MTL
Folin, Christian
$800,000
RD
UFA - 1

Special Teams

Power Play 1
Drouin, J.
Danault, P.
Gallagher, B.
Tatar, T.
Ristolainen, R.
Power Play 2
Suzuki, N.
Domi, M.
Armia, J.
Byron, P.
Petry, J.
Penalty Kill 1
Danault, P.
Armia, J.
Kulak, B.
Weber, S.
Penalty Kill 2
Kotkaniemi, J.
Gallagher, B.
Reilly, M.
Petry, J.

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Nov 5 at 8:06
#1
Joined: Apr 2019
Posts: 449
Likes: 227
You are insanely high, no way in hell Buffalo is even on the phone for more than 2 seconds with that offer
SalamiCheese liked this.
Nov 5 at 8:08
#2
Wqrrior
Joined: Feb 2019
Posts: 2,164
Likes: 346
this summarizes MTL fan's sense of trade value in one post
SalamiCheese liked this.
Nov 5 at 8:09
#3
Burgers and Hockey
Joined: Oct 2017
Posts: 8,059
Likes: 3,399
BUF wouldn't in their right mind even consider moving Risto for a 2nd rounder, and then they'd have to take Alzner's horrific contract in the exchange as well?

Risto has his flaws, yes, but he's still a constant 40-point RHD in a weak team. In a good team he could be a 50, possibly even 60-point D. He has some good value and potential. He's not going to be moved for scraps.
SalamiCheese liked this.
Nov 5 at 8:10
#4
Joined: Feb 2019
Posts: 407
Likes: 185
I'm not sure Buffalo fans will share your opinion here.

My understanding is that he's played better this season. Also I doubt anyone picks up Alzner for a 2nd & 4th, let alone getting something back IMO.
SalamiCheese liked this.
Nov 5 at 8:12
#5
Thread Starter
I put math in hockey
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 580
Likes: 147
Quoting: CrossFireX33
You are insanely high, no way in hell Buffalo is even on the phone for more than 2 seconds with that offer


They get 2 picks to save $700,000 in cap space on their sub-replacement level dman at 5v5. Risto's only adding value with intense sheltering the Sabres can't provide, or on the powerplay, which is most likely going to be Dahlin's show in a year or two anyway.

For a team that probably isn't real this year, and is unlikely to win anything next year either, you probably take two picks for the guy with 5v5 underlyings worse than Nikita Zaitsev. ( https://gyazo.com/cd8a428684d25f057c32f70cf7e4ab12 )
AFOX10900 liked this.
Nov 5 at 8:13
#6
#DisruptTheNight
Joined: Mar 2017
Posts: 5,941
Likes: 2,561
I want whatever you're smoking
yikes, sabres89, SalamiCheese and 2 others liked this.
Nov 5 at 8:17
#7
Sabres are elite
Joined: Jun 2017
Posts: 2,590
Likes: 570
Quoting: The_Ultimate_Pielord
They get 2 picks to save $700,000 in cap space on their sub-replacement level dman at 5v5. Risto's only adding value with intense sheltering the Sabres can't provide, or on the powerplay, which is most likely going to be Dahlin's show in a year or two anyway.

For a team that probably isn't real this year, and is unlikely to win anything next year either, you probably take two picks for the guy with 5v5 underlyings worse than Nikita Zaitsev. ( https://gyazo.com/cd8a428684d25f057c32f70cf7e4ab12 )


DREAM ON PRETTY BOY
Nov 5 at 8:17
#8
y i k e s
Joined: Sep 2019
Posts: 745
Likes: 187
Quoting: Hedman77
I want whatever you're smoking


It technically could happen
Hedman77 liked this.
Nov 5 at 8:19
#9
Joined: Apr 2019
Posts: 449
Likes: 227
Quoting: The_Ultimate_Pielord
They get 2 picks to save $700,000 in cap space on their sub-replacement level dman at 5v5. Risto's only adding value with intense sheltering the Sabres can't provide, or on the powerplay, which is most likely going to be Dahlin's show in a year or two anyway.

For a team that probably isn't real this year, and is unlikely to win anything next year either, you probably take two picks for the guy with 5v5 underlyings worse than Nikita Zaitsev. ( https://gyazo.com/cd8a428684d25f057c32f70cf7e4ab12 )


yeah because risto isn't playing the most minutes on the sabres this year or anything like that. "Sub-replacement level" what a joke
Nov 5 at 8:29
#10
Joined: Jul 2018
Posts: 1,170
Likes: 632
This is just a ridiculous offer. He now plays in Buffalo for 25 minutes and does not look like our worst defender or even the second worst. In the new coach system, he improved a little, and yes, he does not play at PP1 in Buffalo, he is at PP2.
Nov 5 at 8:31
#11
Joined: Feb 2017
Posts: 1,834
Likes: 575
Theres so many reasons why this is wrong, i just wanna throw one more on the pile- alzner would have to beat out miller, montour, and jokijarju.
Nov 5 at 8:37
#12
Thread Starter
I put math in hockey
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 580
Likes: 147
Quoting: CrossFireX33
yeah because risto isn't playing the most minutes on the sabres this year or anything like that. "Sub-replacement level" what a joke


TOI isn't a stat for player evaluation. I could play the most minutes on the Sabres. Would it end well? No, but has it ever ended well for Risto? The Sabres have yet to make the playoffs in his career, his isolated impacts are in Nikita Zaitsev territory. All he's done is rack up PP points and fail on defense.

Quoting: LumberJacques
I'm not sure Buffalo fans will share your opinion here.

My understanding is that he's played better this season. Also I doubt anyone picks up Alzner for a 2nd & 4th, let alone getting something back IMO.


People have said Risto's improved, but his relative Corsi is in career-worst territory despite solid (for Buffalo) quality of teammates. The team's 10th-best PDO and 10th-best Points% on a 13th-best GF% have made them look better this year, and I think people are applying it to Risto. (The team's xGF% this year ranks 8th from the bottom, just above the Red Wings).

The premise was that Buffalo would not want to continue paying a guy 5.5 million dollars to be Nikita Zaitsev at 5v5 as they transition the powerplay to Dahlin, so they take the opportunity to save a little cash and grab a couple picks for the future. The main value they get is getting out of the Risto contract.

Yeah the Sabres fans don't seem to agree.
AFOX10900 liked this.
Nov 5 at 8:42
#13
Thread Starter
I put math in hockey
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 580
Likes: 147
Quoting: sabres89
Theres so many reasons why this is wrong, i just wanna throw one more on the pile- alzner would have to beat out miller, montour, and jokijarju.


Alzner's an LD. Those are all RDs. He's not competing with them, he's competing with Marco Scandella.

Quoting: Cheesesauce
This is just a ridiculous offer. He now plays in Buffalo for 25 minutes and does not look like our worst defender or even the second worst. In the new coach system, he improved a little, and yes, he does not play at PP1 in Buffalo, he is at PP2.


Not the worst in Buffalo isn't a high bar, but Risto still manages to bottom out among their D this year in 5v5 Score-and-Venue adjusted CF%. He's also 3rd-worst by xG, so your point narrowly stands by that metric.

Of course, this misses a lot of important information. Multiple years of data helps increase the certainty. Including quality of teammates and competition is important.

That's what the RAPMs do. They grade him as equivalent to Nikita Zaitsev.
AFOX10900 liked this.
Nov 5 at 8:49
#14
Joined: Apr 2019
Posts: 449
Likes: 227
Quoting: The_Ultimate_Pielord
TOI isn't a stat for player evaluation. I could play the most minutes on the Sabres. Would it end well? No, but has it ever ended well for Risto? The Sabres have yet to make the playoffs in his career, his isolated impacts are in Nikita Zaitsev territory. All he's done is rack up PP points and fail on defense.



People have said Risto's improved, but his relative Corsi is in career-worst territory despite solid (for Buffalo) quality of teammates. The team's 10th-best PDO and 10th-best Points% on a 13th-best GF% have made them look better this year, and I think people are applying it to Risto. (The team's xGF% this year ranks 8th from the bottom, just above the Red Wings).

The premise was that Buffalo would not want to continue paying a guy 5.5 million dollars to be Nikita Zaitsev at 5v5 as they transition the powerplay to Dahlin, so they take the opportunity to save a little cash and grab a couple picks for the future. The main value they get is getting out of the Risto contract.

Yeah the Sabres fans don't seem to agree.


Zaitsev is no where near a comparable, and you apparently havent actually watched him or youd know a lot more about his play than just his stats. Stats don't show everything. Zaitsev has only sniffed 40 points once, and has since not been able to break 20, you can't compare him accurately to a consistant 40 point defenseman who yes does lack some of the defensive skills, but plays with a defensively minded partner in McCabe so that he can play more on the offensive side. Zaitsev has been forced to play a more defensive role because his game lacks any offense at all and still has all around bad stats, where risto instead actually has offensive upside while showing progress in the defensive side of his game. Stats. dont. tell. the. whole. story.
SalamiCheese liked this.
Nov 5 at 8:51
#15
habs_fan
Joined: Jan 2018
Posts: 2,454
Likes: 488
im not even going to try omg
Nov 5 at 8:51
#16
Burgers and Hockey
Joined: Oct 2017
Posts: 8,059
Likes: 3,399
Quoting: The_Ultimate_Pielord
They grade him as equivalent to Nikita Zaitsev.


Most likely OTT wouldn't give up Zaitsev for Alzner and those picks... As sad as it may seem, he just might be their best RHD at the moment.
Nov 5 at 8:53
#17
Joined: Jul 2018
Posts: 1,170
Likes: 632
Quoting: The_Ultimate_Pielord
Alzner's an LD. Those are all RDs. He's not competing with them, he's competing with Marco Scandella.



Not the worst in Buffalo isn't a high bar, but Risto still manages to bottom out among their D this year in 5v5 Score-and-Venue adjusted CF%. He's also 3rd-worst by xG, so your point narrowly stands by that metric.

Of course, this misses a lot of important information. Multiple years of data helps increase the certainty. Including quality of teammates and competition is important.

That's what the RAPMs do. They grade him as equivalent to Nikita Zaitsev.


Dude, I don’t trust all these charts, I believe my eyes, I see how he plays and what his minuses and pluses are. He plays the physical game very well, he is not very good in defense and he has a rather low IQ, but if he is given the installation to play easier, then he looks good. This season, in general, I am pleased with the game of Risto, he began to play easier and make less mistakes. Obviously, he will not bargain for such a package. If our GM appreciated it like you, then Risto would no longer be on the team.
Nov 5 at 9:04
#18
Joined: Dec 2017
Posts: 4,345
Likes: 1,130
Now I'm not a Risto fan but Buffalo is much better off keeping Risto than trading him for a cap dump a 2nd and a 4th.
Nov 5 at 9:22
#19
Joined: Feb 2019
Posts: 407
Likes: 185
Quoting: The_Ultimate_Pielord
The premise was that Buffalo would not want to continue paying a guy 5.5 million dollars to be Nikita Zaitsev at 5v5 as they transition the powerplay to Dahlin, so they take the opportunity to save a little cash and grab a couple picks for the future. The main value they get is getting out of the Risto contract.

Yeah the Sabres fans don't seem to agree.


I just don't think they are saving nearly enough money to make it worthwhile for them. The age difference combined with adding another year from Alzner would also be a major disincentive for them.

My belief is that if they were trading Risto, they would prefer to get a forward in return. Also trading him puts someone else in his exact situation, which isn't ideal either.

I do agree with your description regarding the benefits of sheltering Risto though ( also wouldn't hurt Zaitsev).
Nov 5 at 9:22
#20
Thread Starter
I put math in hockey
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 580
Likes: 147
Quoting: CrossFireX33
Zaitsev is no where near a comparable, and you apparently havent actually watched him or youd know a lot more about his play than just his stats. Stats don't show everything. Zaitsev has only sniffed 40 points once, and has since not been able to break 20, you can't compare him accurately to a consistant 40 point defenseman who yes does lack some of the defensive skills, but plays with a defensively minded partner in McCabe so that he can play more on the offensive side. Zaitsev has been forced to play a more defensive role because his game lacks any offense at all, where risto instead actually has offensive upside while showing progress in the defensive side of his game. Stats. dont. tell. the. whole. story.


The crux of your argument are 2 stats (points and TOI). Points are a bad stat that exclude every aspect of defence, are largely driven by how a player is used, and include 0 contextual factors (not even something as basic as strength state). TOI doesn't measure player impact at all: it's purely a measure of how much a coach wants this player on the ice. This will usually favour good players, but coaches have plenty of blindspots, and Risto seems to be one. It's also heavily context-dependant: offensively skilled but defensively impaired players are more valuable when their team is trailing, which can drive up their TOI. Risto fits the bill there, and the Sabres have trailed a whole lot in his career.

A good eye test is super helpful! But it has to be detailed, have a firm basis, and not just be points + TOI + confirmation bias. In general, to make a firm argument against stats with the eye test, you should be able to specify:
1) what the stats are missing
2) why the stats miss it (not technically necessary, but usually if you can't answer 2), it's because your answer to 1) is actually something the stats capture), and
3) why this thing leads to a player driving wins better than the analytics say, even when the analytics consist of isolating that player's impact on goal differential.

Floor's open, if you want to answer those.
Nov 5 at 9:38
#21
Thread Starter
I put math in hockey
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 580
Likes: 147
Quoting: BurgerBoss
Most likely OTT wouldn't give up Zaitsev for Alzner and those picks... As sad as it may seem, he just might be their best RHD at the moment.


If anything, that's a better argument FOR making the deal. You're not winning anything with Zaitsev as your best RD, so may as well grab the picks and wait out the years of pain.

Quoting: Cheesesauce
Dude, I don’t trust all these charts, I believe my eyes, I see how he plays and what his minuses and pluses are. He plays the physical game very well, he is not very good in defense and he has a rather low IQ, but if he is given the installation to play easier, then he looks good. This season, in general, I am pleased with the game of Risto, he began to play easier and make less mistakes. Obviously, he will not bargain for such a package. If our GM appreciated it like you, then Risto would no longer be on the team.


I refuse to allow the foolishness of executives to ruin my ACGM experience. I am the GM here, dangit.

Physicality's an interesting one. Teams that outhit their opponents are actually more likely to lose than win, less because hitting is bad, but more because hitting a whole lot tends to mean a team is chasing play a whole lot, which is bad. Amusingly, this trend continues into the playoffs (@petbugs13 did a thread on twitter last year tracking the record of teams that outhit their opponents). In general, I'm inclined to say that physicality is just stylistic, a means to an end. Whether or not a guy is physical doesn't say anything about good/bad, it just indicates how he's getting there. Risto also isn't physical in one of the most important areas: the blueline. He gives up a higher percentage of possession entries than about 80% of the league's defensemen. That's a huge problem.

Don't trust your eyes. They're lying ****s (Kyle Dubas quote). In all seriousness, the numbers can parse data from literally every minute Risto played from the start of the 16-17 season to the end of last year (the RAPMs haven't been run yet this year IIRC). Your eyes cannot do that. You have not watched all of those games, and you do not remember all that you have watched. That 2nd part is huge, too, certain stuff tends to stick out in the mind (like big hits) even when its game impact isn't comparable.

If you have firm eye test points, rules above apply.

Quoting: LumberJacques
I just don't think they are saving nearly enough money to make it worthwhile for them. The age difference combined with adding another year from Alzner would also be a major disincentive for them.

My belief is that if they were trading Risto, they would prefer to get a forward in return. Also trading him puts someone else in his exact situation, which isn't ideal either.

I do agree with your description regarding the benefits of sheltering Risto though ( also wouldn't hurt Zaitsev).


Risto's 25, which doesn't sound super old, but aging research suggests players peak between 23 and 25, generally, and 5v5 play is what they lose the fastest. Given that, he's probably never gonna be a useful 5v5 player for them, so the bigger deal is just cutting the cash down a bit. Getting more minutes for the other RDs isn't necessarily a bad thing either, Miller put up fantastic numbers with the Golden Knights and Jokiharju's been pretty good for them this year, too. If neither of them can handle it, the team can always trade one of those picks for Hainsey just to eat the minutes and let the others develop. It'd probably work better than Rito, anyway.

I dunno what the Sabres would want for Risto. Picks make sense in general, when this team regresses (like last year) it'll be back to the ol' rebuilding grind, and you always need more picks in a rebuild.

Zaitsev isn't half the player Risto is on the powerplay, though.
LumberJacques liked this.
Nov 5 at 9:55
#22
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 2,046
Likes: 615
Quoting: CrossFireX33
Zaitsev is no where near a comparable, and you apparently havent actually watched him or youd know a lot more about his play than just his stats. Stats don't show everything. Zaitsev has only sniffed 40 points once, and has since not been able to break 20, you can't compare him accurately to a consistant 40 point defenseman who yes does lack some of the defensive skills, but plays with a defensively minded partner in McCabe so that he can play more on the offensive side. Zaitsev has been forced to play a more defensive role because his game lacks any offense at all and still has all around bad stats, where risto instead actually has offensive upside while showing progress in the defensive side of his game. Stats. dont. tell. the. whole. story.


Says stats don't tell the whole story, proceeds to use STATS that show nothing but the OFFENSIVE capability of a DEFENCEman, i just stopped reading there lmao
Nov 5 at 10:01
#23
Joined: Jul 2018
Posts: 1,170
Likes: 632
Quoting: The_Ultimate_Pielord
If anything, that's a better argument FOR making the deal. You're not winning anything with Zaitsev as your best RD, so may as well grab the picks and wait out the years of pain.



I refuse to allow the foolishness of executives to ruin my ACGM experience. I am the GM here, dangit.

Physicality's an interesting one. Teams that outhit their opponents are actually more likely to lose than win, less because hitting is bad, but more because hitting a whole lot tends to mean a team is chasing play a whole lot, which is bad. Amusingly, this trend continues into the playoffs (@petbugs13 did a thread on twitter last year tracking the record of teams that outhit their opponents). In general, I'm inclined to say that physicality is just stylistic, a means to an end. Whether or not a guy is physical doesn't say anything about good/bad, it just indicates how he's getting there. Risto also isn't physical in one of the most important areas: the blueline. He gives up a higher percentage of possession entries than about 80% of the league's defensemen. That's a huge problem.

Don't trust your eyes. They're lying ****s (Kyle Dubas quote). In all seriousness, the numbers can parse data from literally every minute Risto played from the start of the 16-17 season to the end of last year (the RAPMs haven't been run yet this year IIRC). Your eyes cannot do that. You have not watched all of those games, and you do not remember all that you have watched. That 2nd part is huge, too, certain stuff tends to stick out in the mind (like big hits) even when its game impact isn't comparable.

If you have firm eye test points, rules above apply.



Risto's 25, which doesn't sound super old, but aging research suggests players peak between 23 and 25, generally, and 5v5 play is what they lose the fastest. Given that, he's probably never gonna be a useful 5v5 player for them, so the bigger deal is just cutting the cash down a bit. Getting more minutes for the other RDs isn't necessarily a bad thing either, Miller put up fantastic numbers with the Golden Knights and Jokiharju's been pretty good for them this year, too. If neither of them can handle it, the team can always trade one of those picks for Hainsey just to eat the minutes and let the others develop. It'd probably work better than Rito, anyway.

I dunno what the Sabres would want for Risto. Picks make sense in general, when this team regresses (like last year) it'll be back to the ol' rebuilding grind, and you always need more picks in a rebuild.

Zaitsev isn't half the player Risto is on the powerplay, though.


I can argue with you that if Risto trades, he will get a better return than that.

And yes, I believe my eyes more, I’m not saying that analytics and stats are not needed, I sometimes look at some graphs myself, but not only the analyеtics and stats decides. For example, some teams will need a physical defender who plays on the PP, while others do not, this is all situational and subjective.
Nov 5 at 10:54
#24
Thread Starter
I put math in hockey
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 580
Likes: 147
Quoting: Cheesesauce
I can argue with you that if Risto trades, he will get a better return than that.

And yes, I believe my eyes more, I’m not saying that analytics and stats are not needed, I sometimes look at some graphs myself, but not only the analyеtics and stats decides. For example, some teams will need a physical defender who plays on the PP, while others do not, this is all situational and subjective.


I would like to point out that the premise of this deal is that Montreal needs a powerplay quarterback substantially more than Buffalo, and has more ability to hide Risto's flaws at 5v5. It is built off of things being situational.

Yeah, Risto probably pulls more than this. He shouldn't, he's a pretty clear negative-value player on his current deal, but he will. Too many NHL GMs that don't go deeper than height, weight, points and TOI. This is my ACGM, though, and the point was a Risto trade scenario that isn't a clear loss for whoever gets him, as well as a scenario where Risto can be a useful player for somebody.

Can't really argue against your eye test, you haven't realluy mentioned what you're seeing, beyond just generic physicality that can mean a million different things. Reminds me a bit of the "subtle nuances" argument Spector made in one of his defenses of the Hall-for-Larsson deal.

I will say, I feel like a lot of people use the eye test as a baseline and then find stats to back it up, which is pretty much the exact opposite of best practice IMO. Analytics are a great way to quickly get a view of how good a player is, no detailed viewings required, just one-stop shop a regression model or WAR model and you've got a sense. Microstats and the eye test are then useful for seeing if there's an evident way the stats could over/under-rate the player, looking at how the player could fit in different situations, areas the player could be coached to improve upon, and seeing if the fit might make it worthwhile do grab an overall questionable player. Microstats help a lot with this side of things too. Doing eyes first then stats usually just opens up a lot of room for confirmation bias if a guy has a few highlight-reel hits and gets some nice PP tallys.

I would like a more specific eye test argument, my general eye test on Risto (I'll admit, I haven't watched a ton of him, so this is backed by stats too) is that he does a good job clearing high-danger areas with his size and physicality, but he's so passive at the blueline and so incapable of getting out of his own zone that the other team can just set up and blast away, until the shots hit something in front and make dangerous deflection/rebound chances, or the goalie just lets in a shot from far out in the mass of shots Risto allows.
Nov 5 at 11:38
#25
Joined: Jul 2018
Posts: 1,170
Likes: 632
Quoting: The_Ultimate_Pielord
I would like to point out that the premise of this deal is that Montreal needs a powerplay quarterback substantially more than Buffalo, and has more ability to hide Risto's flaws at 5v5. It is built off of things being situational.

Yeah, Risto probably pulls more than this. He shouldn't, he's a pretty clear negative-value player on his current deal, but he will. Too many NHL GMs that don't go deeper than height, weight, points and TOI. This is my ACGM, though, and the point was a Risto trade scenario that isn't a clear loss for whoever gets him, as well as a scenario where Risto can be a useful player for somebody.

Can't really argue against your eye test, you haven't realluy mentioned what you're seeing, beyond just generic physicality that can mean a million different things. Reminds me a bit of the "subtle nuances" argument Spector made in one of his defenses of the Hall-for-Larsson deal.

I will say, I feel like a lot of people use the eye test as a baseline and then find stats to back it up, which is pretty much the exact opposite of best practice IMO. Analytics are a great way to quickly get a view of how good a player is, no detailed viewings required, just one-stop shop a regression model or WAR model and you've got a sense. Microstats and the eye test are then useful for seeing if there's an evident way the stats could over/under-rate the player, looking at how the player could fit in different situations, areas the player could be coached to improve upon, and seeing if the fit might make it worthwhile do grab an overall questionable player. Microstats help a lot with this side of things too. Doing eyes first then stats usually just opens up a lot of room for confirmation bias if a guy has a few highlight-reel hits and gets some nice PP tallys.

I would like a more specific eye test argument, my general eye test on Risto (I'll admit, I haven't watched a ton of him, so this is backed by stats too) is that he does a good job clearing high-danger areas with his size and physicality, but he's so passive at the blueline and so incapable of getting out of his own zone that the other team can just set up and blast away, until the shots hit something in front and make dangerous deflection/rebound chances, or the goalie just lets in a shot from far out in the mass of shots Risto allows.

You are partly right about the game of Risto. He is good at physical play, the simpler he plays and does not bother with the puck in his zone, the less mistakes he makes, he connects to the attack pretty well, but he has problems to move the puck, and it is strange that he plays in tandem with McCabe, as he also has problems with this component. Plus, he is good at PP, but since now he is playing at PP2, and Dahlin is playing at PP1 because he plays the puck better, but Risto has a better long-range shot. Therefore, I do not see how Montreal is trading for Risto, unless they have exchanged Petry or Weber in another deal, they also need LHD, not RHD.
 
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