Forums/Armchair-GM

Dissecting How Much JP is Really Worth in a Trade

Created by: wingss
Initial Creation Date: Nov 10, 2019
Published: Nov 10 at 11:19 pm
Team: 2019-20 Detroit Red Wings
Team Explanation
I see a lot of people here making this trade with the Wings, mostly from Oilers fans, but I think almost everyone is overvaluing him.

Let's take a look at just the numbers here. He's a 21 year old 6'4 201lb RW who has 37 points (17-20-37) in 139GP over the course of three seasons, all of which he bounced back and forth between Bakersfield and Edmonton. That is a current pace of .27 points per game. I hate to make this comparison, but at the time of his trade, Nail Yakupov was a 23 year old putting up .44 points per game over his 252 games with Edmonton (50-61-111). He was a -88 over this time period, while Jesse is only a -10. Yakupov averaged 14:42 TOI during his time in Edmonton, and Jesse averaged 12:28. Yakupov's defensive play was significantly worse than Jesse's just comparing the numbers, but Yakupov's PPG were almost double. And if anyone can remember, Yakupov got a nobody prospect and a 3rd round pick. Yakupov could never get his career going, and is now playing in the KHL. While I'm not saying this is by any means a direct comparison, it just goes to show that even a former 1st overall pick putting up decent numbers (not for a 1st overall pick but just in general) in the NHL still only warrants basically just a 3rd. On the same note, GM's are going to remember this. They are wary of trades like these. Especially the good teams. We can make another, more recent comparison in the Robby Fabbri trade. Robby Fabbri was another former first round pick who had a decent start, but unfortunately his career got derailed with two ACL tears and missed most of two seasons. In the time he did play, he put up .45 PPG (32-41-73) in 164 games for St. Louis, and 37 points in 72 games as a rookie 19 year old before his injuries. That's already higher than any season JP has had. Again, almost double the PPG for Fabbri, and we were able to get him for 4th liner Jacob de la Rose. That's it. The trade was a one for one. Just to note, we picked de la Rose up off of waivers.

Now let's try and figure out what Puljujarvi is probably worth. First of all, Edmonton has zero leverage in this scenario. He has publicly stated he is not going to play in Edmonton anymore, and just to prove it he actually left and signed in Finland. That erases any leverage Ken Holland has, and instantly brings his trade value down. Just comparing the Yakupov and Fabbri trades, we can probably fairly say that he is not worth more than either one of them in his current form. So a 2nd round pick (probably the most common trade I've seen on here) is out. I believe a 3rd/4th round pick is a fair trade for Puljujarvi. I think that is a fair price to pay for a 21 year old former 4th overall pick, who hasn't put up great numbers, but would really benefit from a fresh start. So please, enough with the top prospects and Athanasiou for JP and a mid-tier prospect, please. It's never going to happen. Don't get your hopes up Oilers fans, because whatever you end up getting for him, I promise you that you'll be disappointed.
Trades
DET
  1. Puljujärvi, Jesse [Reserve List]
EDM
  1. 2020 3rd round pick (DET)
Buyouts
  • Stephen Weiss: $1,666,667
  • Xavier Ouellet: $216,667
Buried
  • Jonathan Ericsson: $3,175,000 ($4,250,000)
DRAFT YEARROUND 1ROUND 2ROUND 3ROUND 4ROUND 5ROUND 6ROUND 7
2020
DET
DET
WSH
SJS
DET
DET
DET
2021
DET
DET
DET
VGK
DET
DET
DET
DET
2022
DET
DET
DET
DET
DET
DET
DET
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES BONUSESCAP SPACE
27$81,500,000$79,374,502$145,000$2,265,000$2,125,498
Left WingCenterRight Wing
DET
Abdelkader, Justin
$4,250,000
LW, RW
NTC
UFA - 4
DET
Larkin, Dylan
$6,100,000
C, LW
UFA - 4
DET
Franzen, Johan
$3,954,545
RW, LW
UFA - 1
DET
Bertuzzi, Tyler
$1,400,000
LW, RW
RFA - 1
DET
Zetterberg, Henrik
$6,083,333
C
UFA - 2
DET
Mantha, Anthony
$3,300,000
RW, LW
RFA - 1
DET
Erne, Adam
$1,050,000
LW, RW
RFA - 1
DET
Nielsen, Frans
$5,250,000
C
NTC
UFA - 3
DET
Perlini, Brendan
$874,125
RW, LW
RFA - 1
DET
Hirose, Taro
$925,000
LW
RFA - 1
DET
Helm, Darren
$3,850,000
C, LW, RW
NTC
UFA - 2
DET
Fabbri, Robby
$900,000
LW, C
RFA - 1
DET
Athanasiou, Andreas
$3,000,000
C, LW, RW
RFA - 1
DET
Filppula, Valtteri
$3,000,000
C, LW
NTC
UFA - 2
DET
Glendening, Luke
$1,800,000
C, RW, LW
UFA - 2
DET
Ehn, Christoffer
$759,167
C, LW
RFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
DET
DeKeyser, Danny
$5,000,000
LD
NTC
UFA - 3
DET
Green, Mike
$5,375,000
RD
NTC
UFA - 1
DET
Howard, Jimmy
$4,000,000
G
UFA - 1
DET
Nemeth, Patrik
$3,000,000
LD
UFA - 2
DET
Daley, Trevor
$3,166,666
RD
NTC
UFA - 1
DET
Bernier, Jonathan
$3,000,000
G
UFA - 2
DET
Cholowski, Dennis
$894,166
LD
RFA - 2
DET
Bowey, Madison
$1,000,000
RD
RFA - 1
DET
Biega, Alex
$825,000
RD
UFA - 1
DET
Hronek, Filip
$714,166
RD
RFA - 2
DET
McIlrath, Dylan
$700,000
RD
UFA - 2

Embed Code

  • To display this team on another website or blog, add this iFrame to the appropriate page
  • Customize the height attribute in the iFrame code below to fit your website appropriately. Minimum recommended: 400px.

Text-Embed

Click to Highlight
Nov 10 at 11:28
#1
Joined: Jan 2017
Posts: 7,638
Likes: 2,472
Oilers decline....easily.
CD282 liked this.
Nov 10 at 11:29
#2
Thread Starter
Matthew Bailey
Joined: Sep 2019
Posts: 128
Likes: 42
Quoting: Gofnut999
Oilers decline....easily.


Well that's the best you're getting because that is going to be the top 3rd round pick in the draft more than likely. Why, what do you think he's worth?
Nov 10 at 11:30
#3
Joined: Jan 2017
Posts: 7,638
Likes: 2,472
Quoting: wingss
Well that's the best you're getting because that is going to be the top 3rd round pick in the draft more than likely. Why, what do you think he's worth?


No it isn’t
CD282 liked this.
Nov 10 at 11:30
#4
Thread Starter
Matthew Bailey
Joined: Sep 2019
Posts: 128
Likes: 42
Quoting: Gofnut999
No it isn’t


Can you read
Paul13 and toddbertuzzi44 liked this.
Nov 10 at 11:32
#5
Joined: Jul 2019
Posts: 2,096
Likes: 541
Quoting: wingss
Can you read


2nd round pick +
CD282 liked this.
Nov 10 at 11:33
#6
Joined: May 2019
Posts: 1,470
Likes: 432
What do you mean Oilers have zero leverage, poolparty can stay in the finish league until he is 27 if oilers dont get what they want, like a 3rd round pick probably has less than 10% chance of making the NHL, he can rot there for all I care. Better than him coming hear and possibly tearing up the NHL. Oilers have all the leverage if as many teams want him as Dreger says.
palhal, Leafs_fan13, jpsnow13 and 1 other person liked this.
Nov 10 at 11:37
#7
Thread Starter
Matthew Bailey
Joined: Sep 2019
Posts: 128
Likes: 42
Quoting: GMs
2nd round pick +


To this I say, what team is going to give up a 2nd round pick for a project piece? Is he worth is, yea probably, but no team will trade it. You know why? Because no lottery division team is going to give up their second, because that for us will be like 32nd-34th overall more than likely, and he is not worth that. A late second, sure, but again, what contender/playoff bubble team is going to give up their 2nd on a project piece. They want to win now, and Jesse will not help them win now. They will spend their 2nd on assets that will help them immediately, not guys that will maybe help them later. So the only logical piece for him is a 3rd. Sorry
Nov 10 at 11:37
#8
Joined: Jan 2017
Posts: 7,638
Likes: 2,472
Quoting: wingss
Can you read


Just fine

Does not matter what i think he’s worth or what you think he’s worth. All that matters is what Holland will accept for him...that ain’t it.

They have had at least 9 teams inquire about him and they own his rights for 6 more years if they don’t move him this year. They will get something they can live with.

Canes talked about Gauthier and a pick. Rangers are talking Lias Andersson. Rumors are Rangers are in serious talks.
GMs and CD282 liked this.
Nov 10 at 11:39
#9
Joined: Jul 2019
Posts: 2,096
Likes: 541
Quoting: wingss
To this I say, what team is going to give up a 2nd round pick for a project piece? Is he worth is, yea probably, but no team will trade it. You know why? Because no lottery division team is going to give up their second, because that for us will be like 32nd-34th overall more than likely, and he is not worth that. A late second, sure, but again, what contender/playoff bubble team is going to give up their 2nd on a project piece. They want to win now, and Jesse will not help them win now. They will spend their 2nd on assets that will help them immediately, not guys that will maybe help them later. So the only logical piece for him is a 3rd. Sorry


MTL are in a rebuilt trying to make the playoffs at the same time, might be a good guess, for exemple, but for now, nobody is welling to pay the price the Oilers are asking
Nov 10 at 11:40
#10
Thread Starter
Matthew Bailey
Joined: Sep 2019
Posts: 128
Likes: 42
Quoting: Copenhagen
What do you mean Oilers have zero leverage, poolparty can stay in the finish league until he is 27 if oilers dont get what they want, like a 3rd round pick probably has less than 10% chance of making the NHL, he can rot there for all I care. Better than him coming hear and possibly tearing up the NHL. Oilers have all the leverage if as many teams want him as Dreger says.


They have zero leverage. You guys are having a good season this year, and have a real shot of making the playoffs. You are not going to just let a valuable trade asset rot in Finland. You guys are going to make a move before Dec. 1st, because if you don't, his trade value will be even worse come next year, and the year after, and the year after.
Nov 10 at 11:46
#11
Thread Starter
Matthew Bailey
Joined: Sep 2019
Posts: 128
Likes: 42
Edited Nov 10 at 11:55
Quoting: Gofnut999
Just fine

Does not matter what i think he’s worth or what you think he’s worth. All that matters is what Holland will accept for him...that ain’t it.

They have had at least 9 teams inquire about him and they own his rights for 6 more years if they don’t move him this year. They will get something they can live with.

Canes talked about Gauthier and a pick. Rangers are talking Lias Andersson. Rumors are Rangers are in serious talks.


Lian Andersson has done nothing at the pro level, JP has way more value than him. Chiarelli doesn't sit in the chair anymore, good luck convincing Holland that the two players are equal. Although I think some sort of trade like this, meaning former top prospect for former top prospect is you're best option. Maybe like Svechnikov on the Wings. That wouldn't be bad for either team. I haven't seen anything about the Gauthier rumor, and to be honest I don't really know much about him.
Nov 10 at 11:49
#12
Thread Starter
Matthew Bailey
Joined: Sep 2019
Posts: 128
Likes: 42
Quoting: GMs
MTL are in a rebuilt trying to make the playoffs at the same time, might be a good guess, for exemple, but for now, nobody is welling to pay the price the Oilers are asking


I'm sorry but I still can't see any team giving up more than a 3rd. I just cannot. And I think we can all admit that Montreal is probably the last place JP should go. He needs a place where he can get a lot of ice time and have no pressure on him, and Montreal is not that place ahah. He should stay away from Canada
Nov 10 at 11:54
#13
Joined: Jan 2017
Posts: 7,638
Likes: 2,472
Quoting: wingss
Lias Andersson himself is worth no more than a 3rd, he's basically another JP, except so far he's been even worse. I haven't seen anything about the Gauthier rumor, and to be honest I don't really know much about him.


Gauthier was pretty widely talked about. Other names mentioned at the time were Klim Kostin snd Alexander Volkov.

Gauthier was Canes 1st a couple years ago. Power forward RW. 27 goals in the AHL last year. Had a very good camp.

Hollands asking price has been a 1st and mid/low prospect or NHL ready young FW and mid pick. He hasn’t budged. He may come down a bit, maybe not. 3rd is not going to happen. They will let him rot in Europe for the year and do this all again next year before they do that.
jpsnow13 liked this.
Nov 10 at 11:55
#14
Joined: May 2019
Posts: 1,470
Likes: 432
Quoting: wingss
They have zero leverage. You guys are having a good season this year, and have a real shot of making the playoffs. You are not going to just let a valuable trade asset rot in Finland. You guys are going to make a move before Dec. 1st, because if you don't, his trade value will be even worse come next year, and the year after, and the year after.


Why would his trade value decrease if he is rolling in the finish league, there was a bidding war on Gusev and the same thing is currently happening on poolparty, Holland as you probably know is very very patient and will wait until he gets what he wants
jpsnow13 and CD282 liked this.
Nov 11 at 12:07
#15
Thread Starter
Matthew Bailey
Joined: Sep 2019
Posts: 128
Likes: 42
Let's just say this. The worst trades made for the team that is acquiring always comes at a deadline. That is always when you can get the most for a player. Always. I promise you, you will get more for JP Nov. 30th than you will in the middle of July or August. That's just how it works.
Nov 11 at 12:13
#16
Thread Starter
Matthew Bailey
Joined: Sep 2019
Posts: 128
Likes: 42
Hollands asking price has been a 1st and mid/low prospect or NHL ready young FW and mid pick. He hasn’t budged. He may come down a bit, maybe not. 3rd is not going to happen. They will let him rot in Europe for the year and do this all again next year before they do that.[/quote]

hahah a 1st for JP, you are the exact type of person I am talking about in this thread. That's just not feasible. Just look at the recent trades stevie made. former 12th overall pick for an ohl defensemen never slotted to make the lineup at any time, and former 21st overall fabbri for waiver pickup 4th liner de la Rose. Both of these guys have had more success in the NHL than JP. I get he was a highly touted 4th overall pick, but those days are gone. What makes him so much more special than these guys? I mean really
Nov 11 at 5:02
#17
Joined: Dec 2017
Posts: 4,307
Likes: 1,124
CD282 posted this the other day from the Athletic:

https://theathletic.com/1343870/2019/11/06/wheeler-analyzing-jesse-puljujarvis-play-in-finland-to-see-what-he-could-offer-as-an-nhler/

It's a very good article and has several videos to help illustrate points the author (Scott Wheeler) makes. After I read this I came to the conclusion that he is having trouble adjusting the speed of the game mentally. He a very good skater and he not in the NHL he does almost all the little things right offensively. Maybe he can adjust maybe he can't.
wingss liked this.
Nov 11 at 10:23
#18
Joined: Mar 2017
Posts: 5,926
Likes: 1,256
Quoting: wingss
They have zero leverage.


Wrong. The Oilers have all the leverage. If this wasn't the case Puljujarvi would have been moved 6 months ago.
oilnate liked this.
Nov 11 at 10:26
#19
Joined: Jan 2017
Posts: 7,638
Likes: 2,472
Quoting: wingss
Let's just say this. The worst trades made for the team that is acquiring always comes at a deadline. That is always when you can get the most for a player. Always. I promise you, you will get more for JP Nov. 30th than you will in the middle of July or August. That's just how it works.


Puju can’t play in the league this year if he is not signed by the end of this month so his value will not increase at deadline. On top of which those days may be coming to an end as GMs are putting more of a premium on early picks than ever before. Last years deadline saw more restraint and reasonable deals than ever before.
Nov 11 at 4:29
#20
Thread Starter
Matthew Bailey
Joined: Sep 2019
Posts: 128
Likes: 42
Quoting: CD282
Wrong. The Oilers have all the leverage. If this wasn't the case Puljujarvi would have been moved 6 months ago.


dude he doesn't want to play on your team and has done nothing at the pro level. you have no leverage
Nov 11 at 5:58
#21
Joined: Mar 2017
Posts: 5,926
Likes: 1,256
Quoting: wingss
dude he doesn't want to play on your team and has done nothing at the pro level. you have no leverage


"I" am not involved in any way. The Oilers own JP's rights exclusively until his 27th birthday, he has ZERO I repeat ZERO leverage. Holland will trade him if and when Holland decides to trade him, and not before. Puljujarvi's fate as regards the NHL rests solely in Ken Hollands hands. Nobody outside the Oilers organization has any say at all, irrespective of how much they kick and scream and fuss.
 
Reply
To create a post please Login or Register
Question:
Options:
Add Option
Remove Option
Submit Poll