So what you are saying is Trotz is the best coach in the NHL. That's pretty much all the credit you can give Lou. Trotz really is an exceptional coach.

nonfiction story*

lol

no chance in hell Trotz comes to a team run by snow

There are ALOT of factors. It's not all trotz. It's not all Pulock/Pelech/Mayfield. It's not all Lou. You do need to spread the credit around. They're a really good defensive team now with the new regime.

I mean its still bad but the leafs suck so bad at d that maybe this is worth a go

Lou didn't really ad anything to this regime though. He added trotz, Trotz changed how they play and its working for them. I give the team credit, I like them and wish them well. But this whole Dubas sucks and Lou is awesome is a joke. Lou gave Zaitsev 7 years, Marleau 3 and left TO with the cap issues they faced this off season. The only reason Carolina has 2 first this year is because of Lou, not Dubas. Leo Komarov got 4 years and Lou traded for Matt Martin and gave up an asset to do so. Take Trotz away from the Islanders and perhaps the Islanders would have been a lottery team. Looking at their long term contracts, they have some issues coming down the road. They are an older team and many of those guys have term that extends well into their 30's. Never a good thing when you are in a cap world.

I'm a devils fan and I love lou, bias aside though, it's well documented senior management, gm's, advisors point to toronto for screwing up the rfa market.

Theres a lot of different opinions on whether its better or worse, some being rfa's were criminally underrated and now they almost receive market value based on expectations

With all that said if you look at the other rfa deals, i'm actually okay with marner (but he shouldve been locked up at 8x8 imo when the offer was there) Nylander i think it is a good deal, but it shouldve been a better one AND the holdout was a pr nightmare. (closer to mackinnons in both term and $). My real issue with dubas (and again im a devils fan so by issue i basically mean opinion) is that the matthews contract is atrocious.

I get this is likely not popular opinion but he took toronto to the cleaners and only signed 5 years. the term is bad, the price tag is bad i just don't see how this is a win OTHER THAN if you feared he wouldnt sign at all.

Now he hits UFA at 26, you overpaid for expectation and clearly strained the dynamic for people like marner who wanted and i believe deserved to be comparably valued. McDavid took 12.5 x 8, under no circumstance should matthews get similar money for only 5 years to then walk straight to free agency

I think its great these kids got paid but imo like the guy above, I don't think negotiating is dubas's strong suit. However, he has done an excellent job navigating the cap through trades

and last thing, im not insinuating that since his contract is atrocious so is he, i think AM is great, just the contract is not for the team. i bet he loves it lol

Edit: i should add lou is great at resigning, more recently open market has not been his specialty lol

So Yes or No??? He Did do something...YES - OR - He didn't do anything...NO. I'll answer for you. It's YES. I don't care to debate the percentages of who gets what...You can hate him, that's fine. I understand how you feel. Lots of Hawks fans were upset with Dale Tallon's contracts when Bowman took over. Brian Campbell at $7.2M...back in 2008 wasn't the best signing, but a good GM goes out and still makes due. Bowman found a home for him in Florida. Dubas being a good GM is VERY much in doubt. I like how creative he got with Clarkson, but he's already got the Bowman home-team surplus going on...without anything to show for it. I'm just hoping Bowman's learned from his mistakes and plays hardball with Strome/Nylander. He took their careers out of the grave yard and should be making sure they know it.

Matthews is 6th in the league in scoring and is heating up. I am not sure how you can say its a terrible contract unless you think he's just a 2C which he clearly isn't. He's the best player in TO who also has Tavares, Marner, Rielly and Nylander and its not close. He's also what 22 only? There is not concern over the Matthews contract. Time and time again, stars getting star money is never a problem, depth guys getting too much is terrible and Dubas has not overpaid a depth guy once. He doesn't sign the Komarov's of the league to 4 year deals at way more than he deserves. TO is always under the microscope and everyone wants their say and unfortunately that results in way too much speculation and just talk from "Hockey Media Guys" to analyze everything and that all gets out of control.

This season its worse than ever. Take away the 2nd half of the back to backs, and TO is one of the top teams in the league in most statistical categories. The team hasn't been playing their best and the reports that follow this team are borderline bipolar. One thing goes right and people go crazy, but you still get all sorts of reports talking about all these perceived flaws that mean TO is crap. Most of these reports ignore advance stats, or results in general.

The reality of the situation is, TO is a very good team. They have been getting better and better each game, apart from the 2nd half of back to back, and at this point there are only a couple of issues that need to be sorted out.

1) The PK is really not good, I am wondering if they need to use their top guys more on the PK. Give Matthews and Tavares a chance, they can win puck battles and faceoffs.
2) Ceci almost needs to be traded, he is a very weak link on the blueline and gets scored on a lot.
3) The backup just hasn't been good enough (not entirely his fault but still no results)

If those are the only 3 things that are actually problematic, TO is in great shape.

Why I get so annoyed with the whole Dubas sucks mentality is because the only reason anyone believes that crap is because Marner, Matthews and Nylander got longer term contracts. Are star players ever the reason at team has cap issues? Is Edmonton's problem the money they pay McDavid and Draisaitl? Matthews makes the most on the team and is leading them in points and is 6th in the league? Is that a bad signing? Is Kane's contract the problem in Chicago? No it isn't.

What are problem contracts in this league? Its depth guys making big money. Yzerman gets nothing but praise but he has made a lot of bad signings and won precisely zero cups. Did Bowman not give the contracts to Crawford and Seabrook? Both of those are problem contracts. Trading Panarin for Saad?

Honestly what has Dubas done bad? He signed Marner, Matthews to big contracts. People also through Nylander's contract into that as well but really is that one bad? He's heating up and is on pace for a career year and makes less than 7 million a year. If anything that is his best piece of work. My point is, Dubas has assembled a terrific roster and his team isn't yet operating as good as they should. Whats going to be the case when they actually play up to their potential? Its just all too much and so stupid.

I don't like the trend these days (and it's everyone, not just Dubas) where contracts are given out before anything has been earned. Crawford isn't a bad contract. That's injuries. How do you predict that? Seabrook was bad. Bickell was bad. I'm not saying Bowman doesn't have his own faults...I actually think I said the opposite, hoping he learns from his mistakes...BUT these guys did something.

You say...what's a bad contract? I say let's name a few good ones...and that'll lead us to the bad ones. It's not always the dollars and cents it's the approach.
Charlie McAvoy - This is a contract that sets Charlie up for an ~$8M per year deal next contract. He understand his role with the B's both today and down the road.
Alex Debrincat - Come 2023 he'll get a $9M per year contract as an RFA...or he'll make a deal if he doesn't live up to it. BUT it's $6.4M for guy with 41 goals last year.
Brayden Point - Probably the best contract out of the three.

I'd say the error Dubas made was that all of his contracts are long term contract. There wasn't any diversity in his approach. 3 years down the road...these will look good, I'm sure. But did TOR really need to wait that long? Why are they in cap troubles now? How confident are we that other teams won't catch up talent wise to TOR??? Even #1 OA and #3 OA picks can take bridge deals...Kane/Toews...That's something Bowman did that was REALLY good. I 100% reject the notion that guys like Matthews/Marner/Nylander can't be bridged. Shanahan is 100% right...what you remember are the victories, success, and the teammates. You don't remember if you were an $11M Cap hit or $10M cap hit. We can point fingers and whatever we want to show why someone does or doesn't bridge, but you better believe having Kane's Toews @ $12.6M in cap combined helped in 2010 and 2013.

I don't think a team is cap trouble when they don't have any bad contracts. Matthews, Tavares, Nylander and Marner will all earn their money, because they are indeed star players. In TO's case, bridge deals would have been terrible. In 2 years, Adnersen needs a contract, in 3 years Rielly needs a contract. If TO would have given their guys short deals like most of the other RFA's got, would have made for massive issues later on. Plus what kind of long term money would have been thrown around if they had the money to throw around? Who is even available? When you judge Dubas's work form the perspective of comparing his deals to mainly Point's contract, its both short sighted and an incorrect way to look at it. So many GM's in this league operate for this season and that's all they really seem to care about. How do I make this season a success? That is where guys make all the wrong decisions. Overpay this FA because we need a 2nd Pair LHD and when that doesn't work. Dubas hasn't done that, he has the 4th youngest team in the NHL and zero bad contracts. His tenure is still in its infancy and should be looked at from both a short term and long term. Short term, he didn't want to go with short term bridge deals, because they will without a doubt end up causing bigger problems later on. Long term, they have no bad contracts and lots of flexibility. Could he have been better? Maybe, who knows, but to say he's been terrible is just ignorant. To suggest that Lou would have been better is an absolute joke, Shanahan axing him saved this core's chances of winning together. Imagine what he would have done with Nylander's contract? He would have traded him for some vet with sand paper and used the money he saved to resign Komarov.

You're going to say they're not in cap trouble when they have $0 in cap to work with? I'm not saying Lou would have been better. I'm saying Lou made the most of what he had and deserves part of their success in New York. Completely different questions. We'll see. I can tell you with 100% certainty that having Kane/Toews at a combined $12.6M helped win 2 cups. There's more than 1 way to do so and for your sake I hope TOR can change that approach.

To reiterate my point - I think Auston Matthews is great, he is a 1C. I don't think he's McDavid, the fact of the matter is McDavid's contract is so so sooooo much better than Matthews and thats the issue I have with it. And because everything is connected it drove up marners (which again is fine because they are worth it - but signing 8x8 wouldve been much better lol).

McDavid took a contract that is great for him and helps the team.
Matthews did not take a contract that helps the team but he took a phenomenal contract for himself. A good contract would have been a 3 year bridge at significantly lower AAV with a very high QO, or 8 years at his current $'s to 12MM.

Instead his contract directly contributes to cap concerns here and now, as well as going forward. He walks himself to free agency to collect an even bigger bag. That is the issue I have with his contract and therefore Dubas's negotiating

He is the cornerstone of the franchise as you mentioned, hes the top guy. Now with a new tv deal hes ready to cash in again and put you right back into cap problems

and still to dubas's credit, hes done a fantastic job navigating the cap to this point

I'd also say, when the rest of the Atlantic/Metro get to 19 games...TOR is probably OUTSIDE of the playoff picture. Injuries have definitely played a role in this and It's close. TOR is 110% a playoff caliber team, but with $0 in cap space...and no 1st rounder (not just a lou mistake. Lou didn't make the Marleau trade. Dubas did)...on the bubble (injuries or not, that's part of the game)...where do you go from here?

When Kane and Toews were coming off their ELC's was a very different time than today. Look at the bridge deals top guys signed for back then it was 6 year deals around 5 million. No chance anyone signs stuff like that anymore. The two options TO had was to go to a 2-3 year deal with the final year being close to or over 10 million or the money they ended up getting long term. I don't think anyone was going to get Matthews at his cap hit for 8 years. Marner wouldn't have signed for 8 years at 9 million if Lou was in charge. He probably would have been traded.

The point I am arguing here is that Lou is so much better than Dubas. Dubas is getting crapped on because he is A) young and B) doing things differently than old school guys. People don't like change and many fight their hardest to prevent change. Look at LA for crying outloud, they have been trying to make being a big, slow, old team work for the past 5 seasons since they won their cup (I ball parked it, not sure how long ago they won, but they haven't been good since). How many people on here still talk about the need to have a big shutdown defenceman and then point at guys who are not at all shutdown defenceman. Like is Adam Larsson really a shutdown defenceman? Or is Ducan Kieth? (More when he was in his prime) If I had a dollar for everytime someone has told me TO needs a quality right handed shutdown defenceman and then mention the likes of Larsson, or Mayfield or Martinez I wouldn't need a job. I know I am going off topic a bit but seriously people just say stuff because that's how it was and so its the same thing now and always will be. Meanwhile the game evolves, the market changes and most GM's are behind by about 2-3 years and fighting to keep everything the same. Dubas doesn't do that, and because he's both young and is evolving with the game, he's made out to be a huge failure when he's had all of 1 full season at the helm and had a lot of cleanup to do because of the poor choices Lou made.

I'm not comparing Lou to Dubas. Wasn't ever trying to do that. VERY Different questions that shouldn't be mixed. Give Lou some Credit for NYI...period...end of question.

Insert different line for different question entirely

Dubas with TOR has things he needs to work out. Saying...different time...I just hear excuses. I don't mean that as an attacking thing at all. The only thing that's changed in the cap ceiling (but we can compared %'s of total cap) and the idea the GMs these days want to pay players before they've actually done anything. I listed Three different examples of bridge deals this offseason. It's far from dead and IMO should be used more.

So tomorrow doesn't matter then. Lets make today work and any problems that arise from these decisions can just be someone else's problem. That is definitely how most people seem to think but its a stupid way to think. Why am I saying this? Because you said a 3 year bridge deal helps the team.

How? In what way does that help? Would it give them the ability to sign some aging vet to an overpriced contract that will hurt the team as he ages al a Backes? What about after those 3 years? Because looking at what Timo Mier got, (his QO is 10 million) you'd think Matthews would have a QO in the 13 million range. How does that help the team? What about the other contracts that would be up at the same time? Andersen after next season and Rielly the same time that Matthews and Marner (who I am assuming you would want to have a 3 year deal as well) and probably Nylander as well. So what would that look like? If people with your mentality had their way, you'd likely have valuable cap space taken up by some aging vets that can't carry their contracts and you'd need probably 40% more cap space than Marner, Nylander, and Matthews are currently taking up plus Andersen and Rielly needing new deals. Not to mention, what about the likes of Sandin and Liljegren that will be coming off ELC's around that time as well.

This is why anyone who calls Dubas a bad GM are wrong, they are in all cases thinking about right now, and not at all thinking about what the landscape is going to look like in 3 years. This is Benning sort of short sighted planning. Also I don't mean to sound like I am coming down hard on you personally, I think most fans lack the patience to look beyond this season or the next, its too far away. I have always been someone who tries to anticipate whats coming next as much as whats happening now. Dubas and Pridham clearly seem to think long term as much as they do short term.

The math behind that mentality just doesn't compute though. As I mentioned several times, lets look at what bridge deals would have looked like in TO.

Matthews 3 year deal would have been the richest of all the bridge deals handed out. His QO in 3 years would be close to 11 million. What would his long term deal be at that point? 14? That isn't at all a stretch.

What about Nylander? He signed a year before so lets say 3 years at 4.5 or 5 with the final year being worth 8, now he would need a new contract at the same time as Andersen and if he continues to play like he has been, I bet he'll have a 90 point season by the time this hypothetical deal needs to be made.

What about Marner? He would have gotten at least what Point got, so you are looking at him and Matthews needing new deals at the same time. As well as Rielly.

How much money would these 3 cost in 3 years? Especially if the new TV deal comes in high and Seattle creates extra revenue. What is all that going to look like? TO is knows what they will paying their young forwards in 2-3 years from now. They don't have any bad contracts that will gum up the works and they have a lot of flexibility since they don't have any bad contracts on the team. This is the sort of long term planning that makes Dubas smart and why all notions that he sucks at his job are just short sighted and wrong. I am not at all saying he is the end all and be all, but the point of this post was for the author to compare Dubas to Lou saying Lou would have done so much better. Lou did some good things in TO but he made a lot of mistakes that caused problems this off season and Dubas managed to not only get out from under those issues, but he improved the team as well.

I find it very funny that whenever I ask anyone "What would those bridge deals look like in 3 years" and mention Andersen and Rielly needing new contracts, the response is nothing.

@LoganOllivier

I think the issue @glc_0908 is making is a good one. The older Calgary failures at the beginning of the cap era...were that they didn't have any single bad contract. They just overpaid everyone about $500k. That adds up. Again, as I mentioned earlier. It's not that I can say Matthews/Marner contract are bad...but you just paid Marner higher than Kane on the expectation that someday he'll be better than Kane. OK, fine...I can see that and one day that will likely happen. Not today...not tomorrow...probably not for 3-4 years. So...is Marner's ~$11M contract today a bit of an overpayment. YES. It might be worth in in the long run, but I think we're in agreement that it's a projection into the future. maybe it has a 99.999% chance of being a good contract...maybe less? IDK you put your favorite percentage assign to it, but it isn't today.

You're argument is that there needs to be thought about the future. I agree, but my point on the mixture of contracts is that Dubas is planning for 3-4 years in the future. What about the now? Why didn't he try to bridge some of these guys? We may just have different philosophies...which is fine, but I think Matthews should have been bridged with his NEXT deal being $12.5 - $12.6M years from now. It was VERY hard for Dubas to get that done because he failed with Nylander...I'm NOT going down that road again.

I'm not taking it personally so don't worry, i'm actually pumped to have a real conversation instead of *insert team* laughs and hangs up or starts with *insert player who isnt being traded*

But my very point I think is proved exactly by what you said to me - which is that AM's contract is in the sweetspot of "screwing" toronto. Because he walked himself to UFA at the highest possible AAV post new CBA and tv deal. He's worth the money yey but the agent beat dubas in this negotiation. by your math hes the highest bridge and comes in with a QO of 11-12 sure and sets himself up for 13-14 MM absolutely. however, at this point he's still an RFA which means you still hold the cards. You sign him for 8 years at 13-14 under the new cap regime and its still a decent contract for a dude who will one be earning his 13-14 at that time and you lock him up for his full prime.

As of now, you're in cap hell (which again i never said dubas is a bad gm quite the opposite actually, but i do think he was outmatched on his negotiations and i guarantee it wont happen again to him) and AM is going to go to the free market where hes going to see max offers because he is that good. and to keep him Toronto will have to match but this time, if they cant, they aren't getting 4 1st's and they aren't getting a trade for his rights. This is the root of the issue.

So you really aren't even considering anything I am saying which is pretty much what everyone on here does. I am saying that Dubas is looking at now and balancing all the needs over a long time frame because he has to. He needs to be very mindful of the future. As I have mentioned, these bridge deals you keep mentioning would have made for a lot of problems down the road. I have asked, what kind of money would TO be spending in 3 years if they bridged these guys? Your answer has been Bridge deals are better. (In not so many words)

That has been everyones response to that question. Imagine if your job is to manage whatever organization, and you take a look at all the long term financial forecasts and then say, who cares, lets do everything we can to win this year because in 3 years I'll be fired and it doesn't matter. Because that is exactly the type of planning that one would have to do to give these bridge deals to guys in TO. There are a lot of contracts that will be signed by the time Matthews and Nylander need new deals. TO knows what they are going to be paying their stars. Does Tampa know how much Point is going to cost them in 3 seasons? Nope, and if he continues to improve, that number is going to be massive. How much money does Winnipeg need to sign Laine in 2 years? Or Calgary in 3 with Tkachuk? Judging by how salaries are already rising, do you think its reasonable to expect that these recent bridge deals are going to only be the tip of the iceberg?

So what are you arguing here?

That's your opinion. That's fine. I have a different opinion. You're suggesting Dubas is looking at the now...I'm not sure how that's possible because he's technically overpaying all 3 of the RFAs when looking at the season of 2019/2020 in a silo. So, he's looking into the future. OK, that's fine too! It's wait and see approach. I don't think many Leafs fans share that view point though. They're looking to win now and your suggesting that TOR isn't contenders now. I'm NOT saying all bridge deals are better. I'm saying contract diversity is better. Going back to my bridge deals example. I'm a fan of Bowman playing hardball with D Strome. Long term deal. NOT what he's looking for. He's proven to me that he hasn't been able to drive his own line...cough cough Nylander. So if Strome gets an 8 year $7M deal...I'm wouldn't be too happy. With that said, I'd be more acceptable because of Bowman's contract diversity. As contracts roll off the books each year...there is more cap room to work with each year.

No no no, what i'm saying and maybe im articulating poorly is AM's contract is more or less a really bad bridge deal. I hear what you're saying and I agree I hate bridge deals. I wanted zacha overpaid for an 8 year deal, i wanted nico 8 years, bratt 8 years I get it.

but theres a new tv deal coming, which means the cap is going up. torontos window is now, but since the team is so young and talented, it can stay open for the foreseeable future which is awesome. If matthews signs for 8 @12 that is better than 5 @11.5 Because he effectively closed your window at 5 years as it stands now. a 3 year bridge is better than the 5 because you will pay him earlier as an rfa and ideally lock him up at 8 following it. You lose the rfa status at 5 years, he didn't take a discount so it didn't help in the right now or the future planning. in 5 years hes getting even more than he would in 3 because hes unrestricted and by that time there will be new contracts in place under the new cap. so the 13-14 post bridge could be more like 15-17 at UFA.

There are two reasons bridge deals are good - one is current cap hit, the other is maintaining rfa stus
There are two reasons long term deals are good - lock up a piece and price certainty that in an ideal world will serve as a discount in the second half or even earlier of the contract

AM's deal has a very high cap hit and Toronto does not maintain rfa status
AM's deals is not truly long term and there isn't price certainty because hes getting open market value in year 5 which leaves you the option of rolling the dice and resigning at Free agent price, or dealing him year 5

@exo2769