These trades are horrible, the team is still in playoff contention and are only a couple points back from where they were last year at this time. It was a bad road trip where the other goalies stood on their heads and carried. Flames are also going through a lot of injuries atm

I think something needs to change but not this. Bennett, Hamonic, Tkachuk, Gio, Rittich, Andersson and Valimaki (because they are winners IMO) are non-negotiable I think and everybody else is fair game in a trade for valuable pieces back or wait out the rest of the season, trade them at the draft and sign a big FA

Your second sentence conflicts with your first, and your conclusion conflicts with the premise (which I share) that Hamonic is probably on his way elsewhere, This is a team which did not improve over the summer and could benefit from the two second-round values acquired in the proposed Toronto trade in particular. If something isn't done now, this team is going to free-fall like the Kings in 2020-2021.

This is, as usual, a thoughtful and intelligent analysis. I hope everyone else notes the "I'm probably way out to lunch on some of these" trades and looks at the gist of the ideas and not the nuts-and-bolts. My only critique is (a) I think Brodie will bring more, and (b) please edit the Edmonton trade or otherwise explain the (current) blank there.

Let's take stock then:

Historically, American Thanksgiving is about the cutoff for teams that do and don't make the playoffs. "Real" point percentage is the best tell-tale for this as seen by last season's standings come November 22nd, 2018. The only Western Conference team with a RPt% at or below .500 were the Avalanche (.463). The next lowest total for a playoff-bound team was the .518 Golden Knights. The Eastern Conference only supplants this observation: all eight playoff-bound teams in the east were the top eight teams by RPt%, and in almost the exact same order as the final standings reflected (TBL/BOS/NYI/TOR/CBJ/WAS/CAR/PIT vs what ended up being TBL/BOS/WAS/NYI/TOR/PIT/CAR/CBJ).

Currently, the Flames have a RPt% of 0.391. The only team worse than them in this regard throughout the Western Conference is the Minnesota Wild, a team everyone and their dog saw missing the playoffs this season. Dom Luszczyszyn's projections for the Athletic (while not gospel, are still really good for this kind of analysis) sees the Arizona Coyotes as the final west wildcard with approximately 91 points. While he does have the Flames projected for 92ish points, getting to that point from a .500 record in the course of 59 games is not exactly simple. This is exaggerated by the fact that the Flames go to overtime a LOT (7/23, 30.4% of their games, or realistically, every third game) and that extra point has gone to Western Conference opponents six of those 7 times. Three-point games are fine out east, but they can start to hurt you when you're in your own conference and more so in your own division (twice).

Consider the following:
- The Flames cannot close games out beyond 60 minutes and give away Bettman points like it was Halloween
- Gaudreau is under-performing and it's obviously affecting the Flames' ability to win
- The roster is beat to sh*t
- Talbot might be the least reliable backup in the Western Conference
- Peters can't quit playing Lucic on special teams and in the top 9
- The Flames don't exactly have the assets to burn to plug all of the holes in their roster

If my back of the napkin math is correct, given the Flames' current RPt%, the Coyotes being at the cutoff at just below 91 points, and the Flames looking to match - at minimum - the RPt% of last season's Avalanche, they need a minimum of 27 non-shootout wins in the last 59 games of the season. They would need to find - on top of those 27 non-shootout wins - an additional 14 points in the standings to hit that 91 point mark. They need to be a .576 team for the rest of the season. The question is, given the above list, can they do it?

Injuries happen, and the only solution to them is to wait. Fine. If the Flames - for the time being - cannot rely on Gaudreau to produce at his 99-point pace, then they need to supplement their scoring. How do you upgrade? Toffoli is a risk, and Namestnikov cannot be expected to pass the puck into the net. Do you upgrade on Talbot? How many more wins does a Howard get you? In theory it could work, but do the Flames have the time to take these hail-Mary attempts? The option of "damn making moves for the future, we want to win now" is acceptable sure, but the window is phenomenally short given how much longer Backlund should be expected to perform as a top-6 center or for how long Giordano and the blueline can keep up with other contending teams.

At the end of the day, the main constant that sticks is that Peters should be on his way out: the Flames' current deployment is projecting to finish with a bottom-10 finish, and any hope of picking up the slack will involve changing that deployment at minimum. Given the track record of the amateur and professional scouting since the Flames' run in 2004, cleaning house from top to bottom would be a genuine start to really turning the Flames around. I'm not proposing a 5-year rebuild, but just realizing that this year might end up being a wash. Is it better to maximize how much the team improves at the draft and over the summer or is it more important to generate 2 or 3 games of playoff revenue at the cost of a lesser pick?



That pick is conditional based on how many goals Neal scores, and he's well on track to meet the condition, so I'm assuming Calgary will get Edmonton's Third Round Selection in 2020.

I think Brodie taking his time getting back from his seizure and his preference to play his off-side might de-value him a bit, but I've been wrong on these things before. I'd bet that by the deadline there will be a team willing to pay a 2nd and 3rd Round Pick for him.

Wow that was a waste of a read, Flames arent selling their assets cheap. Flames are also 4th last in the league in S% which is horrid and should fix itself

Shooting percentage - and moreover PDO benders and slumps - have been known to take entire years to sort themselves out. Look at the Islanders last season, their comeuppance still hasn't arrived, and we're a quarter of the way through the season.

Your criticism is weak and apparently so is your knowledge surrounding the Flames' and the reality of their situation.

No im just not going to take the time to argue with you on horrible trades. Regardless of of they turn it around or miss the playoffs they arent goi g to sell their assets for fractions of what they are worth

Which trades and which players then? These aren't absolute values, just in-the-ballpark ideas for what they could get before the deadline. Or did I miss the memo where every player I traded is worth a first round pick plus? You keep mentioning that the trades are horrible but are yet to identify a single one or why it's bad.

You aren't taking the time to argue that point because you yourself don't have an argument regarding their value.

Flames will never trade Bennett for a 3rd and AHLer regardless of what other teams see he is worth. End of the day hes a middle 6 player with a physical style. Most late 1st end up where he is so trading him for someone who probably wont make the NHL is idiotic.

Frolik trade isnt bad but take out retention and make it a 3rd

Hamonic regardless of his performance this year is still leagues better than Ceci and has the track record to prove it. The 2nd is nice but the 2 prospects dont really help, Flames dont need more left wings when they have Dube and Pelletier in the pool as well.

Brodie is actually having a pretty solid year and is worth a solid prospect and maybe 2 2nds, especially at 50%

Do you not recognize that Mascherin is a prospect or no?

This is much better feedback, now we can actually argue about values and such. Frolik, considering last year's tantrum and his lack of production, wouldn't warrant a 3rd Round Pick without a 50% retention. Ho-Sang and a 4th Round Pick is equivalent to a 3rd Round Pick, and in this case, you get a maybe roster player out of it too.

Ceci isn't really the main attraction to that trade, but more of a cap casualty. Hamonic might net a 2nd Round Pick and an A-prospect at the deadline (which that's what he's doing here so idk what else to help you with). Abramov is penance for taking Ceci back to make the money work. You could maybe justify adding a 2021 midround pick to this deal, but I don't know if you can juice Toronto for more than that. Sure, I undervalued Brodie, and he probably nets more at the deadline. Point still stands however, that moving him in this scenario is something that needs to happen, especially if the Flames are going to miss a playoff berth.

Wow! That's two stupid errors I've made today. With both of my local teams being embarrassed, I should just go to bed.