Quoting: BeterChiarelli
A few things, but they aren't completely egregious to the point where it ruins this AGM (which I think you did a pretty good job of tbh)
First being, I agree with the deployment idea of the Larkin/Byfeild lines, but for posterity's sake the Byfield line MUST be the second line if Quinton is to ever truly develop and succeed at the NHL level. He has the obvious size and skill, but adjusting to a top-line pace at this level will take time. Larkin's unit needs to eat the heavy matchups, and it's likely that for the early part of the season that the Byfeild line is splitting time with the Rasmussen line until their feet are realy underneath them.
Carolina and Markstrom will want more (probably a 3rd Round Pick and $2M respectively), but those are clearly something the Red Wings can afford at this stage in the game. Carolina might not even have a lot of interest in moving Bean, but if they do, it would be best to capitalize on that by paying their price. I'd flip Nemeth and Seider too based on the game Bean plays and giving Seider sheltered minutes to adapt to NHL speeds before promoting him.
This summer - ESPECIALLY if Detroit lands Byfeild at the draft - is the year to buy Abdelkader out. Because Detroit still has some of their top rookies ELC's in effect (Seider's slides this season IIRC, so he'll have 3 years left next year), they should use those years of savings to absorb the maximum from a JA buyout. Such a buyout peaks in Byfeild/Seider's second and third year (just over $2.3M). Even though his deal does expire by the time those two need to be resigned, it opens up an additional $2M in those two years that could be used to help fuel a playoff push or cushion the contracts of Bean, Cholowski, Hronek, Rasmussen, and Zadina.
I would do more to keep Fabbri around the $2M mark, and potentially look at keeping Bertuzzi on a cheaper but shorter deal. There's a fair bit of talent due for a payday within the next two years in Detroit (Bean, Hronek, and Zadina are gonna be expensive, don't forget that Larkin is due in 3 years time) and being able to ride hikes in the cap to pay for these players makes the job all the easier down the road.
I think there's reason to be optimistic in Detroit.
When I made this I was thinking the same thing for the Larkin/Byfield deployment. Obviously Byfield isn't stepping into his first NHL game from the OHL to the top line center role. I was just putting him up there to show that hopefully by the end of the year he will have seen some time up there, have gotten a feel for it, and eventually it should be his spot. Same thing with Seider, I'm putting him there to show his potential, where his talent should be able to take him given enough time.
I personally have no problem paying more for Markstrom, but once we start to go that high, we then have to decide on some other free agent goalies that could also be brought in to do the same role (Greiss, Lehner, etc.) so it's just about finding the best fit for the right price and term. We have plenty of cap space so it's not a problem at this point, as long as we don't go over four years. I think that's probably the maximum we want to sign any goalie.
I really don't know what would be fair for Bean, I put this out as kind of a feeler, something I think would benefit all parties. Carolina is loaded on the backend and have no real need for Bean, and what better team to send Svechnikov off to to try and jumpstart his career than his brothers. Again personally I have no issue with moving the 3rd to get Bean, or even someone like Erne or Perlini just to get the deal done.
If you didn't notice, I did buy out Nielsen in this scenario. I think he is the worse of the two bad contracts, Abdelkader is actually having a pretty decent year for his standards, and he gets hurt a lot so there is still a roster spot like %50 of the time. I think it is unlikely we buy out both contracts, but I think it will be one or the other this year. I just think Nielsen would be the better choice, as he has a measly one point through 25 games, and he takes the third line center role that will go to Rasmussen next year.
It's hard to judge exactly what Fabbri's contract will look like, because he's only been here for like 10 games so it's hard to know if he will keep his production at the current pace, but if he does he is worth more than $2M. However, it's unlikely he does, in which case it will drop closer to $2M. He is a top six, first unit powerplay winger on this team, so I still think it will be higher than $2M. Hard to tell this early. Bertuzzi is almost at a point per game pace, if he keeps this all the way through the end of the season I think $5.5M is the floor. If he gets 70+ points, I don't think $6M is that far away. Bertuzzi is 24 about to enter his prime, I would rather sign him long-term now, than in three years when he is 27 or 28, and get stuck with a bad contract when Bertuzzi is into his 30's. He plays a tough, grind type game that I don't envision being as successful when he is in his 30's than it is right now. Sign him long term until then, than the shorter deals when he's older. That's my philosophy, anyway.
We've got a lot of decisions to make, but I've got full trust that the guy we've got will make it happen. The sun will shine on us again.