Quoting: LoganOllivier
I am not as confident in that assessment as you are. Buy outs still affect the cap and once those first round of bad contracts expire, you're going to be a in a situation where Eberle, Lee, Bailey and Nelson are all making over 5 million and will all be around 33 and up. James Neal is who those guys will turn into. Its extremely risky giving term to guys entering their 30's, a decline is coming and when it does it hurts. Only a handful of players escape a decline in their early 30's and almost all of those guys were elite to begin with. With the aforementioned group of guys making a lot of money on the Islanders with several years of term remaining, its going to be hard to fit what comes after those ELC's.
I have already ran the numbers and potential buyouts, cap increases. Lee will be the only player that becomes a problem contract down the line, but he needed to be signed this season. The islanders are essentially paying him because they believe this team can win a cup within the next 3-4 years - and without him, they’re not in the position they’re in right now. I can see him being bought out in 5 years.
Nelson has become a bargain for the islanders. 55-65 point player that has the best defensive impact on the team and can shut down opposing teams top players. His 6 year deal takes up his 28,29,30,31,32,33 seasons. He seems to be getting better with age, so assuming he’s producing at a similar pace for his 28,29,30,31 seasons, and let’s say he falls off a bit at his age 32 season to a 40-45 pt pace. That’s one season left at 6 mill, you don’t know what’s going to happen that far down the line - does he have enough value to be traded? What’s the cap number? Maybe the islanders have to give a pick or a prospect in a trade. Who knows. That’s 5 years down the line. A lot can happen.
Eberles style of play will age well. His contract takes up his 29,30,31,32,33 at a pretty modest 5.5 AAV. He’s drives play at a very high level. Guys like Patrick hornqvist and TJ Oshie are producing at 20 G + pace and they are currently in their age 33 seasons. Parise is 35 (his contract is brutal, but you get the point) I’d be worried if eberle was signed to an 8 year deal, but he’s not , and his contract likely will not be a problem. I can see him being traded at some point during his deal, maybe 3 years from now.
Bailey makes 5 mill AAV and for what he brings in terms of on ice production and intangibles, he will never be traded. He’ll be like an Alex steen, hell produce at a high level for the next 3 years and then he’ll be in the bottom 6.
Like I said,Lee is the only one that poses a problem down the line because of his style of play and because his contract takes him to his age 35 season - but it had to be done and it’s a risk well worth taking.
Almost every contender has brutal contracts - Boston has David backes , they had to buyout Dennis seidenberg contract a few years back and are still paying him. St. Louis has Jake Allen and Alex steen. Nashville has Kyle turris.