Odd Leafs Question

Forums/Armchair-GM

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Created by: exo2769

Team: 2019-20 Chicago Blackhawks

Initial Creation Date: Dec. 4, 2019

Published: Dec. 4, 2019

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

Let's just assume that the CAR trade is accepted. The point of this post isn't the valuing the CAR trade whether or not it's too much or not enough...blah blah blah

What would would it take in a trade for the MAIN piece to simply be dropping the top 10 protection? It's obviously a no brainer if you think TOR is 100% playoff bound because that means either of these trades are essentially free. BUT there's a very small chance (16% as of today) that you're giving up a HUGE piece.

How much do you believe in your own team...just to MAKE the playoffs?

Trades

CHI

2020 1st round pick (TOR)

CAR

Lehner, Robin

CHI

Holl, Justin

Additional Details:

Removing the top 10 protection. It's a gamble, but statistically speaking might be the best trade you can get...no?

Even now, there's only a 16% chance at a top 3 pick.

TOR

Gustafsson, Erik ($600,000 retained)

CHI

Ceci, Cody

Additional Details:

Removal of top 10 protection.

It's an either or trade. Just curious.

TOR

Crawford, Corey ($3,000,000 retained)

Retained Salary Transactions

Erik Gustafsson: $600,000 (50%)
Corey Crawford: $3,000,000 (50%)

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2020
2021
2022

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
23	$81,500,000	$69,151,686	$0	$6,920,000	$12,348,314

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Saad, Brandon $5,000,000$5,000,000 LW, RW UFA - 2	Toews, Jonathan $10,500,000$10,500,000 C NMC UFA - 4	Kubalik, Dominik $925,000$925,000 ($850,000$850K) LW, RW UFA - 1
DeBrincat, Alex $778,333$778,333 ($32,500$32K) LW, RW UFA - 1	Strome, Dylan $863,333$863,333 ($2,475,000$2M) C UFA - 1	Kane, Patrick $2,625,000$2,625,000 RW NMC UFA - 4
Shaw, Andrew $3,900,000$3,900,000 C, RW UFA - 3	Kämpf, David $1,000,000$1,000,000 C UFA - 2	Caggiula, Drake $1,500,000$1,500,000 LW, RW UFA - 1
Nylander, Alexander $863,333$863,333 ($850,000$850K) RW, LW RFA - 2	Carpenter, Ryan $1,000,000$1,000,000 RW, C UFA - 3	Dach, Kirby $925,000$925,000 ($2,500,000$2M) C, RW RFA - 3
Smith, Zack $3,250,000$3,250,000 LW, C M-NTC UFA - 2

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Keith, Duncan $5,538,462$5,538,462 LD NMC UFA - 4	Seabrook, Brent $6,875,000$6,875,000 RD NMC UFA - 5	Lankinen, Kevin $925,000$925,000 ($212,500$212K) G UFA - 1
De Haan, Calvin $4,550,000$4,550,000 LD/RD UFA - 3	Murphy, Connor $3,850,000$3,850,000 RD UFA - 3	Delia, Collin $1,000,000$1,000,000 G UFA - 3
Määttä, Olli $3,333,225$3,333,225 LD UFA - 3	Ceci, Cody $4,500,000$4,500,000 RD UFA - 1
Koekkoek, Slater $925,000$925,000 LD/RD UFA - 1	Gilbert, Dennis $925,000$925,000 LD UFA - 2

Dec. 4, 2019 at 3:05 p.m.

Leafs_fan13

Joined: May 2019

Posts: 1,784

Likes: 344

I’ll take Crawford for ceci rn. We could call lilgren up. Holl for gus ah I wouldn’t mind it

Dec. 4, 2019 at 3:06 p.m.

exo2769

Thread Starter

exo2769

Joined: Jul. 2015

Posts: 15,595

Likes: 9,676

Quoting: Leafs_fan13

I’ll take Crawford for ceci rn. We could call lilgren up. Holl for gus ah I wouldn’t mind it

So you'd drop the top 10 protection of your 2020 1st round pick for BOTH of these trades?

Dec. 4, 2019 at 3:09 p.m.

Leafs_fan13

Joined: May 2019

Posts: 1,784

Likes: 344

Quoting: exo2769

So you'd drop the top 10 protection of your 2020 1st round pick for BOTH of these trades?

I would

exo2769 and GenXHockey liked this.

Dec. 4, 2019 at 3:20 p.m.

GenXHockey

Formerly Jamiepo

Joined: Jul. 2018

Posts: 21,156

Likes: 10,700

Quoting: Leafs_fan13

I would

Yup, I think that may work, provided sandin is called up.

exo2769 liked this.

Dec. 4, 2019 at 3:45 p.m.

Petrock83

Joined: Jun. 2017

Posts: 1,519

Likes: 656

I really like the concept of this deal, but I'd only make it at the deadline if Toronto is hovering around 10th place. Obviously if they are in the playoffs by then we shouldn't do it, or even if they're right on the bubble since it isn't worth giving up valuable assets just for 3% lottery odds. But if we do get their pick and they're close, I think this could be a good gamble to make.

exo2769 liked this.

Dec. 4, 2019 at 5:43 p.m.

Kyle_Davidson

Kyle from Chicago

Joined: Feb. 2018

Posts: 9,831

Likes: 5,799

Leafs 2021 first round pick
(Also means condition on Carolina first is reverted because we have both)
Cody Ceci

Toronto Maple Leafs

Erik Gus
Corey Crawford 50% retained

Otherwise it’s just poor asset management... you are giving up Gus for holl and for a 1/1000000 chance the leafs miss the playoffs, and their pick is top 3 (10)…

Unless I have misunderstood this.

Dec. 5, 2019 at 8:48 a.m.

exo2769

Thread Starter

exo2769

Joined: Jul. 2015

Posts: 15,595

Likes: 9,676

@Stan_Bowman
All I was really trying to do was really ask the question...what would it take to removed the Top 10 Protection on their 2020 1st rounder? It's an extremely subjective and vague question (I understand) considering we're not near the TDL AND it's a complete gamble. It's worth more than future considerations...because why include it at all if it weren't. It's worth Less than...well a lot of things.

The more important part is getting the 1st, but once you have it. (Assumption in this post) I think Stan would have to weigh his options. If for whatever reason he can't get a good return for Gus...This option to me is better than just a 3rd rounder. I'd roll the dice because it's more arrows in the quiver for game changing players.

Dec. 5, 2019 at 11:04 p.m.

Aussie_Blackhawk

Joined: Oct. 2019

Posts: 4,986

Likes: 2,356

Certainly a big risk to take with the Attacking Lineup the leafs can put out. Im not so sure I would do it though like you say, as we get closer to the TDL that could change.

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