Quoting: leafs101
no, I wouldn't do Nylander for Thomas myself. And you're right, Thomas won't get 7M because he's not as good as Nylander. 20 year old Nylander was better than 20 year old Thomas, as is 23 year old Nylander. I agree that points aren't everything, but they do matter a significant amount. Thomas is on pace for 35 as a 20 y/o, Nylander scored 60+
Thomas won't get $7M because the Blues brass is smarter than the Leafs brass. And when counting points, you fail to factor in that Thomas has to date played significantly fewer minutes per game, has largely played out of position, starts less frequently in the O zone by a considerable margin, has had a small fraction of PP time when compared to Nylander, has had far more defensive duties (or at least has been far more capable of carrying them out) and has for the most part played with less offensively inclined linemates. And yet, since the start of last season:
Points per 60 all situations
Thomas: 2.1
Nylander: 2.1
Points per 60 at even strength
Thomas: 1.4
Nylander: 1.6
Relative goals on ice for/against
Thomas: 0.3
Nylander: 0.4
And this is with Thomas a) not yet to his full potential, b) not yet regularly used on top lines, c) not yet regularly used at his proper position & d) at 1/8 the cap hit.
By the way, you mentioned their 20yo seasons. Here's the like comparison...
Even strength points per 60
Thomas: 1.9
Nylander: 1.9
Relative goals on ice for/against
Thomas: 0
Nylander: -0.1
Nylander is currently the better player, but not by so much as you seem to think. But when it comes to total value? Uhh, it ain't Nylander.