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What was Lou thinking

Team: 2019-20 New York Islanders
Initial Creation Date: Dec. 11, 2019
Published: Dec. 11, 2019
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Dec. 11, 2019 at 1:55 p.m.
#1
LGI
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hickey was on the team before lou
Dec. 11, 2019 at 1:58 p.m.
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Quoting: niko
hickey was on the team before lou


he re-signed him. especially to that contract.
Dec. 11, 2019 at 2:11 p.m.
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Patrick Marleau and Nikita Zaitsev can also be added to the list of questionable ideas made by Lou. The only good thing he's done in New York is getting Trotz.
Dec. 11, 2019 at 2:14 p.m.
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Hickey: I wouldn't say he sucks, I just don't think Lou counted on a faster, better and younger LHD in Devon Toews would come along to completely unseat Hickey. It also had a lot to do with the fact that the Isles lost Calvin de Haan, another one of the team's LHDs, to free agency that same offseason and allowing a mass exodus of defensemen on the eve of Tavares leaving would've made matters even worse than they were.

Komarov: My guess is he didn't think last year would go as well as it did. He probably thought we'd be rebuilding for awhile so he got a guy he knew could generate a veteran presence in a locker room while embodying the defense-first. PK specialist philosophy of his new coach, Barry Trotz. He probably though Komarov could help teach to Trotz system while the kids developed and, by year 3 of that contract, the NTC would only have a 8 team no-trade list and he could trade him away if he really needed to.

I'm mostly playing devil's advocate on the Komarov reasoning.
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Dec. 11, 2019 at 2:15 p.m.
#5
v5 CBJ GM
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Bobo.
Dec. 11, 2019 at 2:16 p.m.
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Quoting: PleaseBanMeForMyOwnGood
Patrick Marleau and Nikita Zaitsev can also be added to the list of questionable ideas made by Lou. The only good thing he's done in New York is getting Trotz.


He also got Mitch Korn/Pierre Greco, had the good sense to keep the draft picks that got Wahlstrom and Dobson rather than trading them both for Pacioretty (would've done no good with Tavares leaving literally days later), and he also signed Robin Lehner and Semyon Varlamov. Sure it's a shame that Lehner's gone, but it's not like Varlamov hasn't been a success here.

I expected more from Lou by now, don't get me wrong, but I wouldn't say the only thing he's done is get Trotz.
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Dec. 11, 2019 at 2:17 p.m.
#7
torontos finest
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Quoting: PleaseBanMeForMyOwnGood
Patrick Marleau and Nikita Zaitsev can also be added to the list of questionable ideas made by Lou. The only good thing he's done in New York is getting Trotz.


Marleau was great for our core when he was around. I don't think he's a Leaf without that third year though.
Dec. 11, 2019 at 2:18 p.m.
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Quoting: mondo
Marleau was great for our core when he was around. I don't think he's a Leaf without that third year though.


Someone else could have done the same for much less. Spezza is doing the same thing and cost the league min.
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Dec. 11, 2019 at 2:49 p.m.
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Quoting: Hawkisles
Hickey: I wouldn't say he sucks, I just don't think Lou counted on a faster, better and younger LHD in Devon Toews would come along to completely unseat Hickey. It also had a lot to do with the fact that the Isles lost Calvin de Haan, another one of the team's LHDs, to free agency that same offseason and allowing a mass exodus of defensemen on the eve of Tavares leaving would've made matters even worse than they were.

Komarov: My guess is he didn't think last year would go as well as it did. He probably thought we'd be rebuilding for awhile so he got a guy he knew could generate a veteran presence in a locker room while embodying the defense-first. PK specialist philosophy of his new coach, Barry Trotz. He probably though Komarov could help teach to Trotz system while the kids developed and, by year 3 of that contract, the NTC would only have a 8 team no-trade list and he could trade him away if he really needed to.

I'm mostly playing devil's advocate on the Komarov reasoning.


I think you have a good take on both players. Hickey can still be a quality NHL player, he was just outplayed by Toews and Mayfield and lost the 7th spot to Dobson. I think he can be moved this summer fairly easily, or if Leddy or Boychucks move out next year he becomes the 7th d-man.

Uncle Leo is best as a 12/13 forward, but Lou knew what he was doing when he brought him in for leadership. Leo is very close to Beau and you can see the impact on his game and the improvements being made. Next year with Martin as a UFA you could plug Leo in on the line with Casey and Clutter.
Dec. 11, 2019 at 7:19 p.m.
#10
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Quoting: PleaseBanMeForMyOwnGood
Patrick Marleau and Nikita Zaitsev can also be added to the list of questionable ideas made by Lou. The only good thing he's done in New York is getting Trotz.


That is false. Adding to @Hawkisles , he brought Jim hiller in this past summer, brassard and filpulla both great signings, signed a few of our core players to great deals, is in the process of bringing over our future franchise goaltender from the KHL.
Dec. 11, 2019 at 7:50 p.m.
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Quoting: Isles777
That is false. Adding to @Hawkisles , he brought Jim hiller in this past summer, brassard and filpulla both great signings, signed a few of our core players to great deals, is in the process of bringing over our future franchise goaltender from the KHL.


Good luck with those signings, it's never a wise plan to actively try to make your team one of the oldest in the NHL. But hey Lou likes his vets.
Dec. 11, 2019 at 8:00 p.m.
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Isles7
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Quoting: PleaseBanMeForMyOwnGood
Good luck with those signings, it's never a wise plan to actively try to make your team one of the oldest in the NHL. But hey Lou likes his vets.


Brassard is on a 1 year deal , signed for 1.25 mill and he's on pace for 50 pts. I think Lou's doing a pretty good job considering his team has the 3rd best record in the league.
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Dec. 11, 2019 at 8:51 p.m.
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Quoting: PleaseBanMeForMyOwnGood
Good luck with those signings, it's never a wise plan to actively try to make your team one of the oldest in the NHL. But hey Lou likes his vets.


I don’t think anyone would call the Isles an old team just because they signed Brassard and Filpulla non-simultaneously. Besides, their core is as follows: Pulock, Barzal, Lee, Eberle, Bailey, Nelson, Leddy, Boychuk. Only one of those are above 30.
Dec. 11, 2019 at 11:19 p.m.
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Quoting: Hawkisles
I don’t think anyone would call the Isles an old team just because they signed Brassard and Filpulla non-simultaneously. Besides, their core is as follows: Pulock, Barzal, Lee, Eberle, Bailey, Nelson, Leddy, Boychuk. Only one of those are above 30.


Well, not correct, 2 are 30 and all but 2 are at least 28. Not to mention the other 30+ year olds still with term. They have some prospects sure but more than one of those deals are going to look bad in the not too distant future and they are going to sting. Lee getting his term at his age was risky.
Dec. 12, 2019 at 2:02 p.m.
#15
Isles7
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Edited Dec. 12, 2019 at 2:08 p.m.
Quoting: PleaseBanMeForMyOwnGood
Well, not correct, 2 are 30 and all but 2 are at least 28. Not to mention the other 30+ year olds still with term. They have some prospects sure but more than one of those deals are going to look bad in the not too distant future and they are going to sting. Lee getting his term at his age was risky.


In two years , four players in the top 6 will be 25 and under. Their best defenseman are all 25 or under right now and have one of the best d prospects in the NHL being integrated into the lineup. Every team has bad contracts, none of the contracts on the islanders will cripple the team. They will be contenders for years, especially with Barry Trotz as the head coach.

Josh Bailey is 30 and on pace for 60 pts and 20+ goals at 5 mill cap hit (nylander is on pace for 58). Lee's contract will look bad in 4 years but if the islanders win a cup it does not matter considering his contract is front loaded and buyout friendly towards the end of the contract.
Dec. 12, 2019 at 2:09 p.m.
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Quoting: Isles777
In two years , four players in the top 6 will be 25 and under. Their best defenseman are all 25 or under right now and have one of the best d prospects in the NHL being integrated into the lineup. Every team has bad contracts, none of the contracts on the islanders will cripple the team. They will be contenders for years, especially with Barry Trotz as the head coach.

Josh Bailey is 30 and on pace for 60 pts and 20+ goals at 5 mill cap hit (nylander is on pace for 58). Lee's contract will look bad in 4 years but if the islanders win a cup it does not matter considering his contract is front loaded and is buyout friendly towards the end of the contract.


Well if everything goes perfect we'd all be very happy. Unfortunately things don't always go as planned and certain things about your lineup are far more risky than others. You'll have a bunch of 30+ years olds with fairly big hits and term. The chances of them being game changers for their whole contracts is entirely unlikely. Its just the trend of the NHL, younger players are faster and you lose a step in your 30's and that could result in millions of cap space being used up by the next wave of Andrew Laad's on your team.
Dec. 12, 2019 at 2:22 p.m.
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Isles7
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Quoting: PleaseBanMeForMyOwnGood
Well if everything goes perfect we'd all be very happy. Unfortunately things don't always go as planned and certain things about your lineup are far more risky than others. You'll have a bunch of 30+ years olds with fairly big hits and term. The chances of them being game changers for their whole contracts is entirely unlikely. Its just the trend of the NHL, younger players are faster and you lose a step in your 30's and that could result in millions of cap space being used up by the next wave of Andrew Laad's on your team.


You're right , things don't always go as planned. Just like the leafs were supposed to be Stanley cup contenders and now there's a decent chance they don't even make the playoffs.

The blues had a ton of players 30+ on their roster. Perron, maroon, steen, bozak. Boston has backes and krejci. The islanders will have players on ELC in the top 6 and by the time their ELC are up, most of those contracts will be off the books. That's what you fail to recognize. Did backes and his 6 mill cap hit (at times a healthy scratch) prevent them from making it to the SCF?
Dec. 12, 2019 at 2:46 p.m.
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Quoting: Isles777
You're right , things don't always go as planned. Just like the leafs were supposed to be Stanley cup contenders and now there's a decent chance they don't even make the playoffs.

The blues had a ton of players 30+ on their roster. Perron, maroon, steen, bozak. Boston has backes and krejci. The islanders will have players on ELC in the top 6 and by the time their ELC are up, most of those contracts will be off the books. That's what you fail to recognize. Did backes and his 6 mill cap hit (at times a healthy scratch) prevent them from making it to the SCF?


Here is the thing though, the Islanders are counting on 2 things to remain competitive. You are counting on your young players all taking small short term deals or hope they give you discounts. And you are hoping none of these 30+ year olds decline at all.

What happens if Barzal wants a long term deal? Whats that going to look like? He's your best offensive player and looks like he's going to be one of the better top line centres in the league. That isn't going to cheap. Sure you can hope for one of those new bridge deals but the are entirely full of risk and will result in even more cap dollars spent in 2-3 years after that. What is the plan with the goaltending? Varlamov has never been as good as he is right now and is also 31, what if he starts trailing off? Comparing yourself to St Louis who was a top team in the West for years before finally getting over the top last year is a awfully bold comparison. Same with Boston, who have the most flexible payroll in the league. In Boston's case, they got lucky getting Marchand and Pastrnak under contract before they broke out. Both of those guys should be making over 10.

So like I said, you need a tonne of things to go right for there to be zero problems ahead. But the chances are, guys like Lee, Bailey, Nelson, Eberle, and Varlamov will start taking steps backwards because it almost always happens. Look at guys like James Neal, he was a lock for 25+ goals and 50 points and now he's a shell of his former self. Andrew Laad was the same, as was Backes. And you have 4 guys like that at the top of your payroll right now. If just 1 of them falls off a cliff in the next couple of years, that is a major problem for you. What happens if all 4 decline rapidly. Its far more likely to see that for all of them to stave off any sort of decline.
Dec. 12, 2019 at 7:03 p.m.
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Isles7
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Quoting: PleaseBanMeForMyOwnGood
Here is the thing though, the Islanders are counting on 2 things to remain competitive. You are counting on your young players all taking small short term deals or hope they give you discounts. And you are hoping none of these 30+ year olds decline at all.

What happens if Barzal wants a long term deal? Whats that going to look like? He's your best offensive player and looks like he's going to be one of the better top line centres in the league. That isn't going to cheap. Sure you can hope for one of those new bridge deals but the are entirely full of risk and will result in even more cap dollars spent in 2-3 years after that. What is the plan with the goaltending? Varlamov has never been as good as he is right now and is also 31, what if he starts trailing off? Comparing yourself to St Louis who was a top team in the West for years before finally getting over the top last year is a awfully bold comparison. Same with Boston, who have the most flexible payroll in the league. In Boston's case, they got lucky getting Marchand and Pastrnak under contract before they broke out. Both of those guys should be making over 10.

So like I said, you need a tonne of things to go right for there to be zero problems ahead. But the chances are, guys like Lee, Bailey, Nelson, Eberle, and Varlamov will start taking steps backwards because it almost always happens. Look at guys like James Neal, he was a lock for 25+ goals and 50 points and now he's a shell of his former self. Andrew Laad was the same, as was Backes. And you have 4 guys like that at the top of your payroll right now. If just 1 of them falls off a cliff in the next couple of years, that is a major problem for you. What happens if all 4 decline rapidly. Its far more likely to see that for all of them to stave off any sort of decline.


The islanders have three RFA this summer. Barzal (likely 10x6 or 10.5 x7) and two of their top 4 Dmen: Devon Toews (4.5-5 AAV x 6-7 years) and pulock (6.5 AAV x 5). I've made numerous ACGM on this, even with barzal getting 11 mill AAV at worst and they'll still be fine. Nick Leddy is getting traded (5.5 mill) and Matt Martin (2.5) + greiss (3.3) come off the books as well. Leo Komarov will likely be bough out. Ladd has never went more than a few months without suffering a serious injury in his 3 years with the islanders and they have buried him in the AHL (with no plans of bringing him up, likely waiting for him to get injured again so he can go on LTIR) so that will be another 5.5 mill that won't affect the cap .

Oliver Wahlstrom played 9 games this season and the islanders took the same approach with him like the leafs did with Sandin. He is NHL ready (led the islanders in xGF%) but they want his ELC to slide and he will be on barzals wing next season. I don't know how you're commenting about the islanders and their contracts and don't know what's going on with the goaltending. The islanders drafted Ilya Sorokin, arguably the best goaltending prospect in the NHL. He plays for CSKA Moscow and did not want to come to the islanders because of our previous GM. Once Lou Lamoriello became Gm, he was open to coming here, so the islanders signed Varlamov (sorokin +varlamov share the same agent) to make it an easier transition for him next season. Many around the league + scouts view him as a franchise goaltender and he has put up ridiculous numbers in the KHL. Before you comment about the ice surface and bigger rink and acclimating to NA, capitals G samsonov and rangers G shestyerkin are both playing for their respective organizations and have done very well so far. Sorokin is expected to be better than both and he has to sign a 1 yr ELC @ 925k (he's 25). After his ELC is up, varlamov will have 2 years left @ 5 mill per. If he keeps up this level of play or close to it, he will have trade value.

Nelson just turned 28 years old last month and is signed till his age 33 season. You act like he's signed till he's 37. When the islanders signed him to 6x6 this summer after posting 56 pts last season, leafs twitter was trolling isles fans and comparing nylander to him. Currently Nelson is on pace for 65 pts, has the best defensive impact on the team which is impressive considering he is tasked with shutting down opposing teams top lines, and he leads ALL centers in all-situation high-danger attempts. He also plays a similar game to Tavares (Tavares is much better offensively, nelson is better defensively) and I've seen you post multiple times on here how Tavares game will age well, so not sure why you're dying on this hill that nelson will decline.

Eberle signed for 5.5 x 5 this past summer and is signed to his age 33 season. @ineffectivemath (Micah) on twitter called it a bargain deal and that Eberle is an extremely powerful driver of offense. Will Eberle decline? Maybe. Will he turn out to be like Andrew Ladd? Highly unlikely. Eberle plays a similar game to hornqvist + tj oshie and they both produced in their age 32 seasons, but Eberle is going to take a step backwards "because it almost always happens". The players I just mentioned are also locked up into their late 30's. Also, are the islanders not able to move players? Lou has done it in the past and dubas just traded a defenseman with 5 years left @4.5 mill and gave up a 1st to move marleau contract. If I had to guess, the emergence of wahlstrom will result in the islanders leaving Eberle exposed in the expansion draft and Seattle will take Eberle with 3 years left @ 5.5 AAV. Either way, this is not a contract that will cripple the islanders, even if his play declines. The islanders signed him because he can help them win a cup in the next 2 years, but he likely will not be here for the remainder of his contract

By the way, James Neal is 32 and is on pace for 34 goals this season. I wouldn't want that contract because it takes him to his age 35 season, but to say that he's a shell of his former self is wrong. He was not used properly in Calgary.

Bailey is on pace for 60 points this season as a 30 year old. He's in a rare category of players that started to produce at a high level starting in their late 20's. Is it possible that he declines? sure. Will it be hurt the islanders if he does? No. I expect Bailey to be on the 3rd line putting up 35-45 pts in 2 years. Better players will be in the top 6 and by then, and 5 mill AAV won't be that much with the cap going up.

Lee scores 90% of his goals 2 ft in front of the net, either by deflecting pucks or cleaning up rebounds. No one can move him and his hand eye coordination is elite, which is why he's one of the best net front presence in the league. I don't like his contract and it will be a problem down the line, but not anytime soon. He's signed till he's 36 but his contract is buyout friendly with no signing bonuses, so they can always buy him out . He significantly increases the islanders chances of winning a Stanley cup right now and he's a great captain, they would not be where they are in the standings without him.

I don't think you understand the direction of the islanders or what they see their lineup being in the next few years. The islanders can afford to have one of lee, Bailey , or Eberle to take a step backwards in the next couple of years. It won't have a big affect on the team. The islanders went on a 15-0-2 streak this season and Eberle was injured for 10 of those games. Varlamov is a stop gap for sorokin. The only player the islanders can't afford to take a step back is Brock Nelson. Like I said, he just turned 28 last month and he's playing like a 1C (albeit a low end one) so to think he's just going to fall off a cliff is unrealistic and wishful thinking.

The islanders top 9 next season will likely be : lee(30) - barzal(23) - wahlstrom(20),

beauvillier (23)- nelson(29)- eberle (30),

dal Colle (24) - koivula (22) - bailey (31).



2021-22 season. beauvillier (24) - barzal (24) - wahlstrom (21)

lee (31). - Nelson (30) - holmstrom (20)

bellows (23) - koivula (23) - bailey (32)
 
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