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Created by: oilnate
Team: 2019-20 Edmonton Oilers
Initial Creation Date: Dec. 13, 2019
Published: Dec. 13, 2019
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So where do the Oilers go from here. 2-5-1 in their last 8 and having lost three in a row for the first time this season this is their first real test of adversity. Team needs remain: Another top 6 forward, and a 3c. Is goaltending a need too? I'm willing to give Mikko the benefit of the doubt for now but Mike needs to prove that he can be the backup. So where/what are the Oilers now, are they still a playoff team. My answer: No, but they're right on the cusp and can fight for a wildcard spot and maybe sneak in. But that means that some serious improvements need to be made in their on-ice performance. Thoughts? Solutions? Discuss.
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Dec. 13, 2019 at 7:34 a.m.
#1
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It's time for Starrett to get a chance. Trouble is, he's been injured most of the season - he played 2 games in October then didn't play until Nov 30th and hasn't played since. Bakersfield HC Jay Woodcroft doesn't give injury updates, so I have no idea what the prognosis is, but if he's ready soon I'd give him 1 start in the AHL as a warm up and then have him on the next plane to Edmonton. Smith has had just 2 quality starts in his last 9 dating back to his amazing 51 save performance vs Pittsburgh November 2nd. At that point, his stats were 2.12 GAA and .931 Sv%. Since then he's posted 4.13 GAA and .854 Sv%. He can't stop a beachball.
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Dec. 13, 2019 at 7:45 a.m.
#2
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Quoting: CD282
It's time for Starrett to get a chance. Trouble is, he's been injured most of the season - he played 2 games in October then didn't play until Nov 30th and hasn't played since. Bakersfield HC Jay Woodcroft doesn't give injury updates, so I have no idea what the prognosis is, but if he's ready soon I'd give him 1 start in the AHL as a warm up and then have him on the next plane to Edmonton. Smith has had just 2 quality starts in his last 9 dating back to his amazing 51 save performance vs Pittsburgh November 2nd. At that point, his stats were 2.12 GAA and .931 Sv%. Since then he's posted 4.13 GAA and .854 Sv%. He can't stop a beachball.


Koskinen's play has dropped off slightly in that timeframe too, but most of the drop has been in the month of December. Here are Koski's splits:

October: 5-1-0-0, 2.39 GAA, .922 Sv%
November: 4-1-0-2, 2.69 GAA, .918
December: 2-2-0-0, 3.40 GAA, .893

Smith's looks much worse:

October: 4-3-0-1, 2.29 GAA, .919 Sv%
November: 3-4-0-0, 3.47 GAA, .895
December: 0-1-0-1, 4.47 GAA, .820

What's January gonna be - 5.47 goals per game??
Dec. 13, 2019 at 8:02 a.m.
#3
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Edited Dec. 13, 2019 at 8:16 a.m.
I saw some good things out of the 1st line like always and I feel like Kassian really does complete them. His forecheck and intensity brings more space and a new dynamic to their skill, so nothing wrong there, he’s their winger. The 2nd line is where to look, Neal has kinda been hot and cold lately with exception to last night, with a couple points. I don’t mind him with Nuge, but I do feel like one of the last major pieces we need is a dynamic winger for him. We can go two directions and get say a gritty/skillful winger because none of Neal/Nuge do provide any type of grit or intensity or one with speed/skill, I think a playmaker is a lot more ideal than a sniper. Both Nuge and Neal have pretty good shots when given the opportunity. 3rd line: I don’t mind Haas as the third line C, but I feel like if you really want to make an impact all the way through to the playoffs, you need your 3 C’s to be structured well and all be defensively reliable in some way or at least provide the offense to look over it. That being said I don’t think Haas cuts it in that case. 3C is another major piece we need, If we get to the playoffs. I would pay the price for a Pageau if he’d resign, fast two way Center who can shoot and he’s been above 50% FO wins his whole career and that’s a major +, as well as him being right handed. Another option? maybe Erik Haula? I feel like the 4th line is fine. On defense, I don’t mind it sometimes, but I also feel like it needs to be changed up, given a whole new dynamic and I think it starts off with Larsson, I don’t see the smooth skating or crisp passing, I just see a 2nd pairing DFD and if we’re playing him like that, we’ll have no problems. But let’s say we switch him with a.. idk Josh Manson, a whole new dynamic to that backend right?? I also see some good, some bad from Jones so far, I think I wouldn’t care if Benning, Russell or Jones were moved. On to goalie: Koskinen, has been solid solid, his only game where I can say otherwise was against Carolina. I feel like if we’re going to truly win games, our backup needs to battle and win games. Smith had it coming into the season but he doesn’t have it anymore, I don’t think he’ll reclaim that battle back mentality and it’s time to move on. There’s a backup market out there, we just gotta explore it a little more. Or Starett?? Skinner??

So here’s what I think:
Primary need:
-cut Smith off
-find a solid 3C and pay the price
-dynamic gritty/skillful or speedy/skillful winger (ideally playmaker)
-explore backup G market or give Starett/Skinner the chance

Secondary need:
-A solid smooth skating two way Top 4 D
-unload Larsson
-unload Benning, Russell or Jones or 2/3 if it gets one of the primary needs done and move around and fill spots going from there
-maybe a solid 3rd line winger to bring offense
Dec. 13, 2019 at 9:01 a.m.
#4
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Quoting: FullSend
I saw some good things out of the 1st line like always and I feel like Kassian really does complete them. His forecheck and intensity brings more space and a new dynamic to their skill, so nothing wrong there, he’s their winger. The 2nd line is where to look, Neal has kinda been hot and cold lately with exception to last night, with a couple points. I don’t mind him with Nuge, but I do feel like one of the last major pieces we need is a dynamic winger for him. We can go two directions and get say a gritty/skillful winger because none of Neal/Nuge do provide any type of grit or intensity or one with speed/skill, I think a playmaker is a lot more ideal than a sniper. Both Nuge and Neal have pretty good shots when given the opportunity. 3rd line: I don’t mind Haas as the third line C, but I feel like if you really want to make an impact all the way through to the playoffs, you need your 3 C’s to be structured well and all be defensively reliable in some way or at least provide the offense to look over it. That being said I don’t think Haas cuts it in that case. 3C is another major piece we need, If we get to the playoffs. I would pay the price for a Pageau if he’d resign, fast two way Center who can shoot and he’s been above 50% FO wins his whole career and that’s a major +, as well as him being right handed. Another option? maybe Erik Haula? I feel like the 4th line is fine. On defense, I don’t mind it sometimes, but I also feel like it needs to be changed up, given a whole new dynamic and I think it starts off with Larsson, I don’t see the smooth skating or crisp passing, I just see a 2nd pairing DFD and if we’re playing him like that, we’ll have no problems. But let’s say we switch him with a.. idk Josh Manson, a whole new dynamic to that backend right?? I also see some good, some bad from Jones so far, I think I wouldn’t care if Benning, Russell or Jones were moved. On to goalie: Koskinen, has been solid solid, his only game where I can say otherwise was against Carolina. I feel like if we’re going to truly win games, our backup needs to battle and win games. Smith had it coming into the season but he doesn’t have it anymore, I don’t think he’ll reclaim that battle back mentality and it’s time to move on. There’s a backup market out there, we just gotta explore it a little more. Or Starett?? Skinner??

So here’s what I think:
Primary need:
-cut Smith off
-find a solid 3C and pay the price
-dynamic gritty/skillful or speedy/skillful winger (ideally playmaker)
-explore backup G market or give Starett/Skinner the chance

Secondary need:
-A solid smooth skating two way Top 4 D
-unload Larsson
-unload Benning, Russell or Jones or 2/3 if it gets one of the primary needs done and move around and fill spots going from there
-maybe a solid 3rd line winger to bring offense


Interesting take, I agree with most of it. Don't be too quick to dismiss Matt Benning though, he's performed well his entire career and it's obvious that he's missed right now. In the past 1.5 seasons he's had multiple partners - some who weren't even NHL quality - and he's posted at least 50% goal share with all of them. That's impressive. Here's a list with GF% and TOI:

Sekera: 50.00 (277:07)
Russell: 83.33 (182:37)
Nurse: 56.52 (166:31)
Gravel: 50.00 (166:18)
Manning: 66.67 (164:28)
Garrison: 55.56 (125:48)
Klefbom: 50.00 (80:22)
Jones: 50.00 (45:21)

Here are the same players and their GF% WITHOUT Benning:

Sekera: 50.00
Russell: 50.55
Nurse: 45.58
Gravel: 58.82
Manning: 20.00
Garrison: 50.00
Klefbom: 44.83
Jones: 36.84

With the exception of Gravel, every single player did better with Benning than without.

Anyhow, the real reason I replied to you was to comment on the "needs" you listed:

Primary need:
-cut Smith off - I have no problem with that, except there's no replacement. Koskinen's starts must be managed, we saw what happened last season when he was overworked.
-find a solid 3C and pay the price - No problem here, an extended Pageau would be my prime target depending on price. Puljujarvi + a 2nd?
-dynamic gritty/skillful or speedy/skillful winger (ideally playmaker) - I think Benson can fill this role. He's doing well in Bakersfield again this year, he's gritty, skillful and an excellent playmaker.
-explore backup G market or give Starett/Skinner the chance - The org seems to love Skinner but he can't even match Wells' numbers, not a chance they go with him. Starrett, on the other hand, is a real possibility. Starrett's AHL stats aren't far off Binnington's when the latter got the call. Of course, Starrett isn't healthy right now, but I think Holland should wait until he is and give him a chance, unless a screaming deal for a young guy like Georgiev comes along.

AHL stats for Binnington
Age | GAA | Sv%
24 | 2.08 | .926
25 | 2.08 | .927

AHL stats for Starrett
Age | GAA | Sv%
24 | 2.33 | .918
25 | 2.03 | .923

I'm not saying Starrett is as good as Binnington, just that he deserves a chance.
Dec. 13, 2019 at 9:22 a.m.
#5
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Quoting: FullSend
-maybe a solid 3rd line winger to bring offense


What do you think of targeting Galchenyuk for 2nd or 3rd line winger? Seems the Pens would let him go pretty cheap and he has decent upside.
Dec. 13, 2019 at 9:50 a.m.
#6
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Quoting: CD282
What do you think of targeting Galchenyuk for 2nd or 3rd line winger? Seems the Pens would let him go pretty cheap and he has decent upside.

If it’s cheap and salary is going back, he’d be a pretty good option, especially if someone goes down in the top 6 or he proves to be lethal if we give him a chance, which we will.. he’d pay out easily. We’d finally have some solid offense on the 2nd PP as well and I’d bet he’d resign for less than he’s making right now, if he underperforms the whole year.
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Dec. 13, 2019 at 4:20 p.m.
#7
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Likes: 208
Quoting: CD282
Koskinen's play has dropped off slightly in that timeframe too, but most of the drop has been in the month of December. Here are Koski's splits:

October: 5-1-0-0, 2.39 GAA, .922 Sv%
November: 4-1-0-2, 2.69 GAA, .918
December: 2-2-0-0, 3.40 GAA, .893

Smith's looks much worse:

October: 4-3-0-1, 2.29 GAA, .919 Sv%
November: 3-4-0-0, 3.47 GAA, .895
December: 0-1-0-1, 4.47 GAA, .820

What's January gonna be - 5.47 goals per game??


We knew they wouldn't stay spectacular and part of it has been the oilers play dropping off as a team but partly because fo his contract I still trust Mikko to bunce back to maybe November numbers maybe a little worse and thats ok. Smith.. gotta figure it out here
Dec. 13, 2019 at 4:25 p.m.
#8
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Quoting: FullSend
I saw some good things out of the 1st line like always and I feel like Kassian really does complete them. His forecheck and intensity brings more space and a new dynamic to their skill, so nothing wrong there, he’s their winger. The 2nd line is where to look, Neal has kinda been hot and cold lately with exception to last night, with a couple points. I don’t mind him with Nuge, but I do feel like one of the last major pieces we need is a dynamic winger for him. We can go two directions and get say a gritty/skillful winger because none of Neal/Nuge do provide any type of grit or intensity or one with speed/skill, I think a playmaker is a lot more ideal than a sniper. Both Nuge and Neal have pretty good shots when given the opportunity. 3rd line: I don’t mind Haas as the third line C, but I feel like if you really want to make an impact all the way through to the playoffs, you need your 3 C’s to be structured well and all be defensively reliable in some way or at least provide the offense to look over it. That being said I don’t think Haas cuts it in that case. 3C is another major piece we need, If we get to the playoffs. I would pay the price for a Pageau if he’d resign, fast two way Center who can shoot and he’s been above 50% FO wins his whole career and that’s a major +, as well as him being right handed. Another option? maybe Erik Haula? I feel like the 4th line is fine. On defense, I don’t mind it sometimes, but I also feel like it needs to be changed up, given a whole new dynamic and I think it starts off with Larsson, I don’t see the smooth skating or crisp passing, I just see a 2nd pairing DFD and if we’re playing him like that, we’ll have no problems. But let’s say we switch him with a.. idk Josh Manson, a whole new dynamic to that backend right?? I also see some good, some bad from Jones so far, I think I wouldn’t care if Benning, Russell or Jones were moved. On to goalie: Koskinen, has been solid solid, his only game where I can say otherwise was against Carolina. I feel like if we’re going to truly win games, our backup needs to battle and win games. Smith had it coming into the season but he doesn’t have it anymore, I don’t think he’ll reclaim that battle back mentality and it’s time to move on. There’s a backup market out there, we just gotta explore it a little more. Or Starett?? Skinner??

So here’s what I think:
Primary need:
-cut Smith off
-find a solid 3C and pay the price
-dynamic gritty/skillful or speedy/skillful winger (ideally playmaker)
-explore backup G market or give Starett/Skinner the chance

Secondary need:
-A solid smooth skating two way Top 4 D
-unload Larsson
-unload Benning, Russell or Jones or 2/3 if it gets one of the primary needs done and move around and fill spots going from there
-maybe a solid 3rd line winger to bring offense


Think Bouchard can be the guy to replace Larsson?
Dec. 13, 2019 at 4:28 p.m.
#9
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Quoting: CD282
Interesting take, I agree with most of it. Don't be too quick to dismiss Matt Benning though, he's performed well his entire career and it's obvious that he's missed right now. In the past 1.5 seasons he's had multiple partners - some who weren't even NHL quality - and he's posted at least 50% goal share with all of them. That's impressive. Here's a list with GF% and TOI:

Sekera: 50.00 (277:07)
Russell: 83.33 (182:37)
Nurse: 56.52 (166:31)
Gravel: 50.00 (166:18)
Manning: 66.67 (164:28)
Garrison: 55.56 (125:48)
Klefbom: 50.00 (80:22)
Jones: 50.00 (45:21)

Here are the same players and their GF% WITHOUT Benning:

Sekera: 50.00
Russell: 50.55
Nurse: 45.58
Gravel: 58.82
Manning: 20.00
Garrison: 50.00
Klefbom: 44.83
Jones: 36.84

With the exception of Gravel, every single player did better with Benning than without.

Anyhow, the real reason I replied to you was to comment on the "needs" you listed:

Primary need:
-cut Smith off - I have no problem with that, except there's no replacement. Koskinen's starts must be managed, we saw what happened last season when he was overworked.
-find a solid 3C and pay the price - No problem here, an extended Pageau would be my prime target depending on price. Puljujarvi + a 2nd?
-dynamic gritty/skillful or speedy/skillful winger (ideally playmaker) - I think Benson can fill this role. He's doing well in Bakersfield again this year, he's gritty, skillful and an excellent playmaker.
-explore backup G market or give Starett/Skinner the chance - The org seems to love Skinner but he can't even match Wells' numbers, not a chance they go with him. Starrett, on the other hand, is a real possibility. Starrett's AHL stats aren't far off Binnington's when the latter got the call. Of course, Starrett isn't healthy right now, but I think Holland should wait until he is and give him a chance, unless a screaming deal for a young guy like Georgiev comes along.

AHL stats for Binnington
Age | GAA | Sv%
24 | 2.08 | .926
25 | 2.08 | .927

AHL stats for Starrett
Age | GAA | Sv%
24 | 2.33 | .918
25 | 2.03 | .923

I'm not saying Starrett is as good as Binnington, just that he deserves a chance.


I'd wait and see how Starrett is coming back but yes I agree, also do you think Benson is a good enough skater?
Dec. 13, 2019 at 5:00 p.m.
#10
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Quoting: oilnate
Think Bouchard can be the guy to replace Larsson?


Not at the moment, no. He has elite offensive skills that will make him a defenseman that can purely rack up points. Think John Carlson with the exception of this phenomenal season. he just doesn’t have the fluidity in skating, the compete level or intensity to be at that level yet, he also needs to round up his defensive game and the toughest pill to swallow is he may never learn. I think he’s 2 years at least from top pair minutes, that’s if he even gets there.
 
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