If Hutchinson doesn't get a W on Saturday against the Wings then Toronto would probably pull the trigger on that

Would rather a 7th for Folin + Kinkaid than take Ceci and help out Toronto.

Ceci isn’t really an upgrade on Folin, and you’re taking on a lot of extra cap. I don’t feel it really makes sense, since there is basically no reward, and Toronto potentially gets a backup.

what about Ceci + Engvall vs Folin + Kinkaid ?

Ceci has played just fine this year. If leafs wanted to move him they could easily send him to the ducks for a pick.

Although I don’t hate this trade, leafs have no need to rid themselves of Ceci’s contract at the moment.

Look past the cap hit. Play Ceci and Folin each 15 mins a night, I guarantee Ceci is noticeably better than Folin at the end of it. Look at what it costs. A goalie we've banished to the AHL and a 7th dman whose not going to get into the lineup this year unless for injuries. Habs have oodles of cap space. This doesn't hurt them in any way shape or form.

Ceci isn't a guy that is hurting TOR. I'm not necessarily saying he's helping them, but he's not hurting them.
His 5v5 and even strength is about a 50% corsi. He splits his starts in zones almost evenly O45D55.
He's a +3 in 5v5 play.

It's not great, it's nothing bad. He'd be best used as a 3rd pairing guy. Doesn't really need to be sheltered there.
Are 3rd pairing players worth 4 million a year, hell no. But if that's the biggest complaint than we shouldn't act like his play is awful.
He's just over paid, that's all there is to it. His contract ends this year. I'm not sure TOR ends up a better team moving him.

I don't think any team takes on Ceci without any form of retention being applied. 4.5M cap is not nothing. Most teams in the League can't afford that right now. Yeah sure Ana will take Ceci possibly but it'll be with more than 1M retention.

So it comes down to what you prefer. A low draft pick like a 6th or 7th or added cap space? Cap space Toronto could use towards better players for the team this year. Like a true backup goalie and another RHD whose better than Ceci is.

There are guys who are paid 900K right now that can play bottom pairing minutes and not hurt you as much as Ceci isn't . The only goal here for Toronto would be if they plan an adding players at the TDL and using that extra cap space. If they don't plan on making any trades to get better then this trade doesn't help them.

I'm assuming they put that new found cap space to good use and add a capable backup and another RHD.

Kinkaid isn't a substantial upgrade over hutch. No sense losing a trade to acquire him.

There maybe, but the problem is that TOR doesn't have any of those. Which is why they are playing Ceci instead of seeing what someone else has to offer.
It's kind of like JJ in Pittsburgh. JJ doesn't hurt them. You could make the case he does help them a little. But he's still the best of the 7th+ defensemen on the current roster.
Same is true with Ceci.

Then there appears to be no chance for any movement then... Do the Leafs like there chances this year with this group? How else will they create cap space?

I don't have answers to these questions. But I know their only real option at RD is Liljegren. And he has played a grand total of 0 NHL games. So I don't think they are going that route without seeing what he can do. He looked ok in the AHL, but that's a huge jump in talent.

Ceci hasn't been the Leafs worse RHD this season, but it appears to be a CapFriendly fascination that removing him and replacing him with an inferior player makes the Leafs better.
It something like last year when fans didn't appreciate Hainsey, Zaitsev and Gardiner. The three replacements Ceci, Barrie and Holl aren't as good, but what could Leafs do when they overpaid their three big RFA signs about 4.5m too much. Leafs will get some needed cap space next with UFA departures and hoping (with cause) that Sandin and Liljegren are NHL good. I'm all in favour of trading a cap forward for cap space for a Dman but really don't see it happening this season....The summer yes.
Improvement...maybe it's already happened with the removal of Babcock. The three RHD Barrie, Ceci and Holl are playing competently. We'll see if their recent four game road trip....three wins and just eight goals against success can continue. Either way (as predicted in October), the Leafs are in battle just to make the playoffs.