Quoting: Bcarlo25
Okay, tell me, this fancy stat you posted.
1)How is it calculated.
2)Does it take into account on a 2 on 1 when the puck carrier shoots if the other guy was open, and the goalie had to play both the shot in the pass?
3)Or is it just, “player x scored from position y?”
4)Does it take into account the shooter?
5)Does it take into account the other guy?
6)The defender?
7)The screen, or lack of a screen?
8) How about something like zone exits?
9)Does it take into account if the pass is perfect, or if the guy receiving the pass has to slow down just ever so slightly because the pass was a little behind.
10)Does it take into account who the forecheckers are? The d partner? The three forwards moving up ice?
11) The time on the clock? The point in the shift?
12) Does it tell you if the d man moves some of the opposition in the neutral zone by looking them off?
13)Every play in hockey has thousands of variables.
14) Most advanced stats track two of them. Advanced stats are binary. Analog. It’s like if you need to know the temperature to within a thousandth of a degree, and you have a sensor that will tell you if it over or under 30 degrees.
15)Ya, I guess it will help you for some things, but it gives you such a small piece of the puzzle, that it’s kind of useless.
1) It takes the expected goals against and compares it to how many goals a goalie has actually let in
2) yes
3) no
4) no. You cannot account in any known way. The best you can do is figure out how dangerous the situations they shoot from are which is 90% of the way there since good skilled goalscorers tend to shoot from dangerous situations.
5) who is this other guy?
6)yes, it takes into account the situation the defender allowed to happen. A good defender will not allow a player into a dangerous situation more often than a bad defender.
7)yes
8)yes these are tracked, although not related to expected goals. You are asking about microstats. Here is an easy to use comparison
tool that tracks that stuff.
9)Not explicitly, but it is accounted for by other tracked factors
10)see the skill answer from above.
11)they even account for score effects and venue, the things you mentioned are accounted through other factors and tracked separately
12)accounted for by other factors
13)you should see the inner workings of this stuff. You think there are thousands of factors - they use tens of thousands. Anything you can think of they've thought of.
14)not particularly true. What I have posted accounts for thousands of things all wrapped up in a nice package
15) exactly the opposite. compiled stats run through a regression model or put in context using other stats gives you the bigger picture. The part you might be missing from an eye test.
I am going to answer all of these here for you, but you know you can just read the faq's on the sites or google it right? The stats guys literally answer all of these questions. Hell you can just ask them yourself on social media. They are often very good about answering questions as long as you are genuinely interested and not just saying they suck and you don't like them. I'll link here some resources for you:
https://hockey-graphs.com/tag/expected-goals/
http://www.corsica.hockey/blog/2016/03/03/shot-quality-and-expected-goals-part-i/
https://evolving-hockey.com