Forums/Armchair-GM

does this make sense- big offseason

Created by: bunzy1034
Initial Creation Date: Dec. 23, 2019
Published: Dec. 23, 2019
Team: 2020-21 Winnipeg Jets
Team Explanation
if buff retires, can this fit if things don't work out in st. Louis for Pietrangelo. Could something like this be the first big FA add? I know that a big FA signing with the jets is probably not going to happen, but i see the fit here and we would have the money to do it in the offseason.
Free Agent Signings
RESERVE LISTYEARSCAP HIT
Samberg, Dylan3$925,000
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
Appleton, Mason1$900,000
Roslovic, Jack2$3,100,000
Niku, Sami1$925,000
Harkins, Jansen1$925,000
Suess, C.J.2$825,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
Pietrangelo, Alex5$9,000,000
Clifford, Kyle1$1,600,000
Trades
1.
WPG
    ANA
    1. Lowry, Adam
    Additional Details:
    picked up in expansion draft by seattle
    2.
    WPG
    1. 2020 4th round pick (EDM)
    EDM
    1. Perreault, Mathieu ($1,000,000 retained)
    Retained Salary Transactions
    • Mathieu Perreault: $1,000,000 (24.24%)
    • Patrik Laine: $1,755,000 (26%)
    DRAFT YEARROUND 1ROUND 2ROUND 3ROUND 4ROUND 5ROUND 6ROUND 7
    2020
    Logo of the WPG
    Logo of the WPG
    Logo of the WPG
    Logo of the EDM
    Logo of the WPG
    Logo of the WPG
    2021
    Logo of the WPG
    Logo of the WPG
    Logo of the WPG
    Logo of the WPG
    Logo of the WPG
    Logo of the WPG
    2022
    Logo of the WPG
    Logo of the WPG
    Logo of the WPG
    Logo of the WPG
    Logo of the WPG
    Logo of the WPG
    Logo of the WPG
    ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
    23$81,500,000$80,442,857$0$282,500$1,057,143
    Left WingCenterRight Wing
    Logo of the WPG
    Connor, Kyle
    $7,142,857
    LW
    UFA - 6
    Logo of the WPG
    Scheifele, Mark
    $6,125,000
    C
    NTC
    UFA - 4
    Logo of the WPG
    Laine, Patrik
    $4,995,000
    LW, RW
    RFA - 1
    Logo of the WPG
    Ehlers, Nikolaj
    $6,000,000
    RW, LW
    UFA - 5
    Logo of the WPG
    Wheeler, Blake
    $8,250,000
    RW, C
    NMC
    UFA - 4
    Logo of the WPG
    Roslovic, Jack
    $3,100,000
    C, RW
    RFA - 2
    Logo of the WPG
    Copp, Andrew
    $2,280,000
    LW, RW, C
    UFA - 1
    Logo of the WPG
    Little, Bryan
    $5,291,667
    C, RW
    NTC
    UFA - 4
    Logo of the WPG
    Harkins, Jansen
    $925,000
    LW, C
    RFA - 2
    Clifford, Kyle
    $1,600,000
    LW
    UFA - 2
    Logo of the WPG
    Gustafsson, David
    $817,500
    C
    RFA - 2
    Logo of the WPG
    Appleton, Mason
    $900,000
    RW
    RFA - 2
    Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
    Logo of the WPG
    Morrissey, Joshua
    $6,250,000
    LD
    UFA - 8
    Pietrangelo, Alex
    $9,000,000
    RD
    NMC
    UFA - 7
    Logo of the WPG
    Hellebuyck, Connor
    $6,166,666
    G
    UFA - 4
    Logo of the WPG
    Heinola, Ville
    $894,167
    LD
    RFA - 4
    Logo of the WPG
    Pionk, Neal
    $3,000,000
    RD
    UFA - 1
    Logo of the WPG
    Berdin, Mikhail
    $758,333
    G
    RFA - 1
    Logo of the WPG
    Samberg, Dylan
    $925,000
    LD
    RFA - 3
    Logo of the WPG
    Niku, Sami
    $925,000
    LD/RD
    UFA - 2
    ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
    Logo of the WPG
    Poolman, Tucker
    $775,000
    RD
    UFA - 1
    Logo of the WPG
    Byfuglien, Dustin
    $7,600,000
    RD
    NTC
    UFA - 1
    Logo of the WPG
    Suess, C.J.
    $825,000
    LW
    UFA - 2
    Logo of the WPG
    Luoto, Joona
    $741,667
    LW, RW
    UFA - 2

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    Dec. 23, 2019 at 4:05 p.m.
    #1
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    pietrangelo will assuredly get multiple max term offers at 9.5m+. i don't think winnipeg is out of the question, but that offer needs to go up.
    Dec. 23, 2019 at 4:21 p.m.
    #2
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    Quoting: grok
    pietrangelo will assuredly get multiple max term offers at 9.5m+. i don't think winnipeg is out of the question, but that offer needs to go up.

    i doubt that a team will be willing to pay 9.5 mil+ for a 38 year old dman, but I do see your point
    Dec. 23, 2019 at 4:23 p.m.
    #3
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    Quoting: bunzy1034
    i doubt that a team will be willing to pay 9.5 mil+ for a 38 year old dman, but I do see your point


    sjs is doing almost exactly that right now, if you consider the cap percentage when brent burns got signed. plus pietrangelo's defense-first game won't decline as quickly as offensive defensemen who decline quickly when their skating starts to go.
    bunzy1034 liked this.
    Dec. 23, 2019 at 4:25 p.m.
    #4
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    Quoting: grok
    sjs is doing almost exactly that right now, if you consider the cap percentage when brent burns got signed. plus pietrangelo's defense-first game won't decline as quickly as offensive defensemen who decline quickly when their skating starts to go.


    yeah makes sense. I can see him getting up to 10 mil if he hits the open market
    grok liked this.
    Dec. 23, 2019 at 4:38 p.m.
    #5
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    the expansion draft is in 2021, not 2020 - so Laine, Copp, and Pionk would all be due raises too
    Dec. 23, 2019 at 8:29 p.m.
    #6
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    Expansion draft isn't for another year after this. Lowry will be a UFA then. Hopefully we make it through the expansion (and we won't have to protect him to resign him) and then resign him to what he's making right now. Accounting for inflation, it's a pretty fair offer for a high end bottom 6 forward who showed top 6 potential in 2016-2017 and then didn't hit the high end of that potential.

    I will bet money that if any of the Jets do get picked ( Chevy just give Seattle a 1st or 2nd to keep all players) it will be Bryan Little.
    Dec. 23, 2019 at 8:52 p.m.
    #7
    MisstheWhalers
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    Quoting: TheCelt
    Expansion draft isn't for another year after this. Lowry will be a UFA then. Hopefully we make it through the expansion (and we won't have to protect him to resign him) and then resign him to what he's making right now. Accounting for inflation, it's a pretty fair offer for a high end bottom 6 forward who showed top 6 potential in 2016-2017 and then didn't hit the high end of that potential.

    I will bet money that if any of the Jets do get picked ( Chevy just give Seattle a 1st or 2nd to keep all players) it will be Bryan Little.


    Bryan Little is a good player, Adam Lowry is an easily replaceable 4th liner at best, the sooner Lowry is gone the sooner the Jets can actually resemble a true contender.
    Dec. 27, 2019 at 2:30 p.m.
    #8
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    Edited Dec. 27, 2019 at 2:41 p.m.
    Quoting: MisstheWhalers
    Bryan Little is a good player, Adam Lowry is an easily replaceable 4th liner at best, the sooner Lowry is gone the sooner the Jets can actually resemble a true contender.


    2 Years from now? Are you kidding me?

    Bryan Little, right now, is a middle 6 forward who is 32 years old, is on the wrong side of his production vs age curve, has missed significant time in the last 5 years due to injuries, and is signed to a multi year 5+M extension. Lowry is younger, holding relatively steady in production, no major injuries, and isn't signed to a multi-year 5+M extension.

    The defining factor in this comparison should be the extension. You are going to be paying 35 year old Bryan Little over 5 million dollars. I don't care how overrated you think Lowry is, paying 28 year old Adam Lowry in the 2.5-3.5 million dollar range is soooooo much better than the former.

    This isn't even a close comparison.
    Dec. 27, 2019 at 5:17 p.m.
    #9
    MisstheWhalers
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    Quoting: TheCelt
    2 Years from now? Are you kidding me?

    Bryan Little, right now, is a middle 6 forward who is 32 years old, is on the wrong side of his production vs age curve, has missed significant time in the last 5 years due to injuries, and is signed to a multi year 5+M extension. Lowry is younger, holding relatively steady in production, no major injuries, and isn't signed to a multi-year 5+M extension.

    The defining factor in this comparison should be the extension. You are going to be paying 35 year old Bryan Little over 5 million dollars. I don't care how overrated you think Lowry is, paying 28 year old Adam Lowry in the 2.5-3.5 million dollar range is soooooo much better than the former.

    This isn't even a close comparison.


    No I'm not kidding you, who goes from the Jets sooner Lowry or Maurice cause that's what it's gonna take for this team to move forward, one of those two gone and hopefully Lowry put where he's always belonged, the 4th line playing 8-10 minutes a night.

    Even a 32-34 year old Bryan Little will have enough offensive skill to not completely drag down a 3rd line like Lowry has ALWAYS done, obviously it depends on how Little recovers from his injury but if Little can't contribute at a decent clip he'll likely retire I'm guessing.

    You do realize Lowry isn't even on pace for 20 points this season yeah?? He's just producing what he's capable of, 4th line player production and nothing more.

    But hey keep clinging to your fancy stat nonsense that tells you how good and important Lowry is, a guy who can't break the 30 point mark with 14+ minutes of ice time is a 4th line player plain and simple, tough for you and the analytics believers to accept but it's a very true fact.

    The St. Louis Blues just won a cup with 35 year old Alexander Steen playing LW on their 4th line and he makes more then Little does, even if Little is 3/4 as good as he is now he'll be better then big and slow Lowry dragging down his linemates, funny enough 3/4 of Bryan Little now is regualar 3rd line production, something Lowry has NEVER accomplished... ?
    Dec. 28, 2019 at 1:57 p.m.
    #10
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    Edited Dec. 28, 2019 at 6:23 p.m.
    Ok, there was a lot of really flimsy to downright bad arguments here, so I'm going to go through this one at a time.

    Quoting: MisstheWhalers
    The St. Louis Blues just won a cup with 35 year old Alexander Steen playing LW on their 4th line and he makes more then Little does, even if Little is 3/4 as good as he is now he'll be better then big and slow Lowry dragging down his linemates, funny enough 3/4 of Bryan Little now is regualar 3rd line production, something Lowry has NEVER accomplished... ?


    Using an individual example as proof of contrary is just lazy rhetoric. Firstly, Alexander Steen is foremost a liability to his team with his cap hit. If you think that St Louis doesn't regret that extension, you're off. Winning the cup with an anchor is impressive, and, given how hit-and-miss professional contracts are, the Jets at some point will probably need to win with an anchor. That being said, the Blues won in spite of Steen, not because of him. For every success story of an albatross contract out there, there is twice as many if not more, horror stories.

    Quoting: MisstheWhalers
    But hey keep clinging to your fancy stat nonsense that tells you how good and important Lowry is, a guy who can't break the 30 point mark with 14+ minutes of ice time is a 4th line player plain and simple, tough for you and the analytics believers to accept but it's a very true fact.


    "A very true fact." Well no, actually it isn't. Fancy stats is just a quantitative measure of chances on the ice vs the chances you give up on the ice. It's no different from +/- except now we also count shots, misses, and blocks. It gives you an imperfect, but largely accurate measure of where the puck is spending it's time when a player is out on the ice. It's kind of universally agreed that +/- is a stupid stat because of how goalie dependent it is. Corsi is just an improvement to increase the sample size and do what +/- is supposed to measure, but better. If you think that corsi (shots+misses+blocks) is a little too general, feel free to just look at fenwick (shots + misses), shots (self explanatory), or high danger chances (shots from the slot and crease). The big knock on Corsi is that different stat counting sites can have different definitions of a chance, miss, or high danger chance. But the point isn't to be perfect it's just to give a trend to whose zone players spend their time on the ice.

    You very clearly are not an NHL coach or executive, so your subjective opinion of how Lowry or any hockey player plays has about as much credibility as my subjective opinion. But anyone with internet can look up a player's on-ice statistics. When Lowry is on the ice the Jets generate a better ratio of offense for to offense generated against. That is what a true fact actually looks like. Lowry also does it playing on a much cheaper line. (Averaging about 6-8) million while Little does less with more (8-16million.) That is also what a true fact looks like.

    Quoting: MisstheWhalers
    You do realize Lowry isn't even on pace for 20 points this season yeah?? He's just producing what he's capable of, 4th line player production and nothing more.


    I'm not too worried about that. Lowry's healthy, is playing with an AHL cast, and that's pretty much the story of his season. As I said before, I'm more interested in the ratio of offense generated for to offense generated against. I don't care whether we win games 3-1, 5-3, or 2-1. If we spend more time in their zone then they spend in our we can afford to not score goals at will. Scoring is also largely shooting percentage based, which anyone with a hockey background can tell you is highly variable. I'll take Lowry because of how sustainable his game is. If Lowry doesn't have a great year, c'est la vie. Slump years happen, and playing with Gabriel Bourque and Marc Letestu to start the year off is a valid excuse.


    Quoting: MisstheWhalers
    Even a 32-34 year old Bryan Little will have enough offensive skill to not completely drag down a 3rd line like Lowry has ALWAYS done, obviously it depends on how Little recovers from his injury but if Little can't contribute at a decent clip he'll likely retire I'm guessing.


    This is largely incorrect, given that if you define dragging down as the residual between a player on the ice with Lowry and without Lowry with respect to the ratio of offense generated to offense generated against, Lowry improves his line mates and the defensive pairings he plays with. I've beat that dead horse enough already so let's talk about Little.

    Little is great. He is a really possession driving role player in the same way the Lowry is, and he really had his reputation as a defensive forward thrashed by 2018-2019 Laine. He also generates excellent bottom 6 offense. That being said, he doesn't produce at clip that would justify giving him opportunities in the top 6, has missed significant playing time in the last 5 years, and is making 5.3 million dollars from the next 4+ years. Not a lot of bad to actually say about his game, but the durability, and contract are huge. You think Little would retire if his production dipped? Why? Because of all the other veteran NHL players that have retired when their production dipped? Little has obligations to his family to make as much money as he can, there is zero reason to assume he would not accept playing as a shadow of himself for 5.4 million dollars.

    You mentioned that you think PoMo needs to go. Absolutely. But that has more to do with Roslovic's mismanagement last year, and Niku's mismanagement last year and this year.
     
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