Forums/Armchair-GM

Lumbus Savard TDL

Created by: markykins1
Initial Creation Date: Dec 27, 2019
Published: Dec 27, 2019 at 1:57 pm
Team: 2019-20 Washington Capitals
Team Explanation
Caps get top 4 d for 2 years, Lumbus gets Caps top RW prospect, a RHD back and our 1st round & 3rd round picks for 2020 draft.
Trades
WSH
  1. Savard, David ($500,000 retained)
CBJ
  1. Jensen, Nick
  2. Leason, Brett
  3. 2020 1st round pick (WSH)
Buried
  • Pheonix Copley: $25,000 ($1,100,000)
DRAFT YEARROUND 1ROUND 2ROUND 3ROUND 4ROUND 5ROUND 6ROUND 7
2020
COL
WSH
ARI
WSH
WSH
WSH
2021
WSH
WSH
WSH
WSH
WSH
VGK
WSH
WSH
2022
WSH
WSH
WSH
WSH
WSH
WSH
WSH
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES BONUSESCAP SPACE
22$81,500,000$82,914,294$1,150,000$632,500-$1,414,294
Left WingCenterRight Wing
WSH
Ovechkin, Alex
$9,538,462
LW, RW
NTC
UFA - 2
WSH
Kuznetsov, Evgeny
$7,800,000
C
NTC
UFA - 6
WSH
Wilson, Tom
$5,166,666
RW
UFA - 5
WSH
Vrána, Jakub
$3,350,000
LW
RFA - 2
WSH
Bäckström, Nicklas
$6,700,000
C
NTC
UFA - 1
WSH
Oshie, T.J.
$5,750,000
RW
NTC
UFA - 6
WSH
Hagelin, Carl
$2,750,000
LW
UFA - 4
WSH
Eller, Lars
$3,500,000
C
UFA - 4
WSH
Pánik, Richard
$2,750,000
LW, RW
UFA - 4
WSH
Leipsic, Brendan
$700,000
LW
RFA - 1
WSH
Dowd, Nic
$750,000
C
UFA - 3
WSH
Hathaway, Garnet
$1,500,000
LW, RW
UFA - 4
WSH
Boyd, Travis
$800,000
C, RW
RFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
WSH
Kempný, Michal
$2,500,000
LD
UFA - 3
WSH
Carlson, John
$8,000,000
RD
NTC
UFA - 7
WSH
Holtby, Braden
$6,100,000
G
NTC
UFA - 1
WSH
Orlov, Dmitry
$5,100,000
LD
NTC
UFA - 4
CBJ
Savard, David
$3,750,000
RD
UFA - 2
WSH
Samsonov, Ilya
$925,000
G
RFA - 2
WSH
Siegenthaler, Jonas
$714,166
RD
RFA - 1
WSH
Gudas, Radko
$2,345,000
RD
UFA - 1
WSH
Djoos, Christian
$1,250,000
LD
RFA - 1

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Dec 27, 2019 at 2:25
#1
Joined: Mar 2018
Posts: 3,844
Likes: 1,007
It would all depend on where Columbus is at the deadline. If they continue to play well and catch up in the wild card teams then I doubt they’d make many moves but if they go like everyone thinks they will, I bet they make this move at the dead line, though I’m most sure we really want Jensen.
markykins1 liked this.
Dec 27, 2019 at 2:32
#2
Thread Starter
Joined: Feb 2017
Posts: 300
Likes: 127
Quoting: Ajp_18
It would all depend on where Columbus is at the deadline. If they continue to play well and catch up in the wild card teams then I doubt they’d make many moves but if they go like everyone thinks they will, I bet they make this move at the dead line, though I’m most sure we really want Jensen.


Yes. As for Jensen, just sending you back an RHD for your starting lineup. Thanks.
Dec 27, 2019 at 2:48
#3
Joined: Mar 2018
Posts: 3,844
Likes: 1,007
Quoting: markykins1
Yes. As for Jensen, just sending you back an RHD for your starting lineup. Thanks.


Yeah, I get that but that also means he’s taking a roster spot from a younger player as we’d really only move Savard if we had no chance of making the playoffs this season and with how the teams been playing, they keep giving themselves a chance to make it.
Dec 27, 2019 at 3:54
#4
Thread Starter
Joined: Feb 2017
Posts: 300
Likes: 127
Quoting: Ajp_18
Yeah, I get that but that also means he’s taking a roster spot from a younger player as we’d really only move Savard if we had no chance of making the playoffs this season and with how the teams been playing, they keep giving themselves a chance to make it.


Yes it's still early for sure, we will all have a much better idea in 6 weeks or so.
Dec 28, 2019 at 3:04
#5
Vrana cookie?
Joined: Oct 2018
Posts: 285
Likes: 175
I was going to make a trade for Savard too, but ended up not posting it. This seems like a steep price to pay though for a 1.5 year potential rental.
rootferdukes and markykins1 liked this.
Dec 28, 2019 at 6:36
#6
Your Fav Dman is Bad
Joined: Feb 2018
Posts: 314
Likes: 207
I'm with @Kylonetic8 here; with how well the Caps are playing this year, they have the luxury of not having to overpay in a trade and thus probably wouldn't pull the trigger on this deal as constructed currently. Love the idea of Savard in DC, he'd be a really great get if GMBM could swing it
Kylonetic8 liked this.
Dec 28, 2019 at 9:10
#7
Who adds what?
Joined: Jul 2017
Posts: 10,075
Likes: 1,758
I think Jensen played a Savard-like role in Detroit last year, just about as well as Savard. Similar minutes, zone starts, corsi, penalty killing. 3/4 as many hits and blocks at half the price, and twice the term.

I don't see the need, here, and CBJ wins this by a year's worth of draft picks.
Dec 30, 2019 at 10:02
#8
Thread Starter
Joined: Feb 2017
Posts: 300
Likes: 127
Quoting: Eli
I think Jensen played a Savard-like role in Detroit last year, just about as well as Savard. Similar minutes, zone starts, corsi, penalty killing. 3/4 as many hits and blocks at half the price, and twice the term.

I don't see the need, here, and CBJ wins this by a year's worth of draft picks.


Yes but his speed gets negated by fast Columbus and Carolina type teams. His puck handling in crowds is very iffy sometimes and I think a more stoudt, better puck handler would be much better for the Caps especially in the playoffs and the forecheck they are going to face.
Kylonetic8 liked this.
Dec 30, 2019 at 10:03
#9
Thread Starter
Joined: Feb 2017
Posts: 300
Likes: 127
Edited Dec 30, 2019 at 10:09
Quoting: Kylonetic8
I was going to make a trade for Savard too, but ended up not posting it. This seems like a steep price to pay though for a 1.5 year potential rental.


I think the price could be modified now too. I've taken out the 3rd and added retention on Savard too...
Dec 30, 2019 at 5:11
#10
Who adds what?
Joined: Jul 2017
Posts: 10,075
Likes: 1,758
Quoting: markykins1
I think the price could be modified now too. I've taken out the 3rd and added retention on Savard too...


I don't think Savard rates a 1st pick. He's 29 years old, earning 5M, and on pace for 12 points. He's as good as Jensen defensively, hits about as much, and has a tiny, teensy bit more skill. Jensen is two years younger at half the cap hit, with more term.

If CBJ really have so many great prospects coming up that they don't even want Jensen, they are free to donate Savard over the summer if Gudas won't re-sign for a lower cap hit.
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Dec 30, 2019 at 5:22
#11
Vrana cookie?
Joined: Oct 2018
Posts: 285
Likes: 175
Quoting: Eli
Jensen is two years younger at half the cap hit, with more term.


Jensen is two years younger than who? Savard is younger than Jensen by a month.

I still think giving up Leason and a first is too much for this. In my trade, I had Panik, Jensen and a third going to Columbus for Savard, no retention anywhere. I wasn't sure that Columbus would be interested in that return though, so I didn't post it. If Columbus isn't interested in that, I'm not sure the Caps would want to give up any more, or anything else. Perhaps they could add Djoos in there, if Columbus had any interest in him.
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Dec 30, 2019 at 5:28
#12
Thread Starter
Joined: Feb 2017
Posts: 300
Likes: 127
Quoting: Eli
I don't think Savard rates a 1st pick. He's 29 years old, earning 5M, and on pace for 12 points. He's as good as Jensen defensively, hits about as much, and has a tiny, teensy bit more skill. Jensen is two years younger at half the cap hit, with more term.

If CBJ really have so many great prospects coming up that they don't even want Jensen, they are free to donate Savard over the summer if Gudas won't re-sign for a lower cap hit.


Those are good points by you and Kylo. Maybe the Caps need to switch up the defensive philosophy somehow because for the last few seasons they've been too leaky for my taste.
Eli liked this.
Dec 30, 2019 at 6:52
#13
Who adds what?
Joined: Jul 2017
Posts: 10,075
Likes: 1,758
Quoting: markykins1
Those are good points by you and Kylo. Maybe the Caps need to switch up the defensive philosophy somehow because for the last few seasons they've been too leaky for my taste.


That's a great question. I wonder what they could change to get Jensen to play as well at even strength in DC as he did in Detroit. Some of it might be that he had a solid veteran stay at home D partner in Detroit, whereas in DC he's alternated between playing with a puck rusher and the new guy. It could fix itself as Siegenthaler continues to adjust to the NHL and Orlov gets used to playing with guys who aren't Niskanen.

The Caps are average on defense at five on five this year, but terrific on penalty killing. Since they're still in the top five most penalized teams, that's not a bad place to be, and overall it gives them the 11th fewest goals against per game. Still, you'd think it's easier to play defense when you've got five guys than four, so the team with the 2nd best PK should be able to find a strategy that works when it gets back its fifth guy.

The 2020 draft is supposed to be really deep. Even a late 1st pick should be able to return a long-term improvement, not just a two year rental. Can they re-sign a guy after two years? Sure. But really they'll pay Ovechkin and Vrana in '21.
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Dec 31, 2019 at 8:36
#14
Thread Starter
Joined: Feb 2017
Posts: 300
Likes: 127
Quoting: Eli
That's a great question. I wonder what they could change to get Jensen to play as well at even strength in DC as he did in Detroit. Some of it might be that he had a solid veteran stay at home D partner in Detroit, whereas in DC he's alternated between playing with a puck rusher and the new guy. It could fix itself as Siegenthaler continues to adjust to the NHL and Orlov gets used to playing with guys who aren't Niskanen.

The Caps are average on defense at five on five this year, but terrific on penalty killing. Since they're still in the top five most penalized teams, that's not a bad place to be, and overall it gives them the 11th fewest goals against per game. Still, you'd think it's easier to play defense when you've got five guys than four, so the team with the 2nd best PK should be able to find a strategy that works when it gets back its fifth guy.

The 2020 draft is supposed to be really deep. Even a late 1st pick should be able to return a long-term improvement, not just a two year rental. Can they re-sign a guy after two years? Sure. But really they'll pay Ovechkin and Vrana in '21.


True.
I see that Siegs was practicing on the top pair and Kempny dropped to 3rd as you know he's struggling. This shows me that the coaches are aware that there are defensive issues. Again, I hope Jensen would work out and it would be obviously better if we don't have to do anything significant for a trade but...it aint looking ideal right now.
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Dec 31, 2019 at 9:13
#15
Who adds what?
Joined: Jul 2017
Posts: 10,075
Likes: 1,758
Quoting: markykins1
True.
I see that Siegs was practicing on the top pair and Kempny dropped to 3rd as you know he's struggling. This shows me that the coaches are aware that there are defensive issues. Again, I hope Jensen would work out and it would be obviously better if we don't have to do anything significant for a trade but...it aint looking ideal right now.


Yeah. 16th in goals against at 5 on 5 is okay when there are 31 teams. It's less impressive when there are 16. Ah well. I like your logic.

Kempny's puck movement is on a level with Jensen's so the two should be able to break the puck out pretty well. Unless Kempny's rushing back from an injury, in which case they could be a disaster. Siegenthaler is still figuring out what a puck is, but he can shake it loose from opponents, and Carlson can pick it up and carry it end to end. That could totally improve the team without having to make a big trade.
Dec 31, 2019 at 9:53
#16
Vrana cookie?
Joined: Oct 2018
Posts: 285
Likes: 175
Quoting: Eli
Yeah. 16th in goals against at 5 on 5 is okay when there are 31 teams. It's less impressive when there are 16. Ah well. I like your logic.


Tbh, some of that has been stretches of bad goaltending by Holtby. He's had two atrocious stretches so far this year, the rock bottom was the 0 sv% game that amazingly Samsonov got the L for. I look at Russian Machine morning afters every game, and our heat maps haven't been quite as bad as in years past.

I still think a guy like Savard might be the key to us improving 5v5 all around, while maintaining our great PK. If we can get him for the right price, I'd do it.
Dec 31, 2019 at 11:13
#17
Who adds what?
Joined: Jul 2017
Posts: 10,075
Likes: 1,758
Quoting: Kylonetic8
Tbh, some of that has been stretches of bad goaltending by Holtby. He's had two atrocious stretches so far this year, the rock bottom was the 0 sv% game that amazingly Samsonov got the L for. I look at Russian Machine morning afters every game, and our heat maps haven't been quite as bad as in years past.

I still think a guy like Savard might be the key to us improving 5v5 all around, while maintaining our great PK. If we can get him for the right price, I'd do it.


Holtby goes through weak stretches midyear, every year. But in recent playoffs, he's been decent: http://www.nhl.com/stats/goalies?reportType=season&seasonFrom=20162017&seasonTo=20182019&gameType=3&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=wins&page=0&pageSize=50

Savard is good, but the Caps are going to make the playoffs this year and have a chance to outscore teams and outhit teams. I think if they're all-in this year, he is slightly better than Jensen, but straight up, the same amount of money for twice as much term makes Jensen an even trade value, long term. If Columbus writes off this year, then three years of Jensen should be worth more than one year of Savard. Then in terms of team fit, adding Savard makes it unlikely the Caps can re-sign both of Holtby and Gudas. Maybe even neither, if the cap is flat and Backstrom gets a big raise. So in 21-22, their right defense is Carlson, Lewington, lefties/UFAs/2020 3rd round draft pick. The lefties are decent, but the current defensive group has the team at the top of the league. While that doesn't guarantee playoff wins, you have to get there to have a chance.
Kylonetic8 liked this.
Dec 31, 2019 at 11:27
#18
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Joined: Oct 2018
Posts: 285
Likes: 175
I don't think they're re-signing Holtby under any scenario, tbh. Unless the cap goes up $5+ mill or something. I'm not sure they re-sign Gudas either, although I don't see a lot of other options at RHD. Lewington is a downgrade for sure.
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Dec 31, 2019 at 11:35
#19
Thread Starter
Joined: Feb 2017
Posts: 300
Likes: 127
Quoting: Kylonetic8
I don't think they're re-signing Holtby under any scenario, tbh. Unless the cap goes up $5+ mill or something. I'm not sure they re-sign Gudas either, although I don't see a lot of other options at RHD. Lewington is a downgrade for sure.


ClockReads2113 convinced me of the no signing of Holtby yesterday. The Caps can do much more if they don't have to pony up for him as well as Backy. I wish Gudas got Jensen's 4 yr contract...
Kylonetic8 liked this.
Dec 31, 2019 at 12:02
#20
Thread Starter
Joined: Feb 2017
Posts: 300
Likes: 127
Quoting: Eli
Holtby goes through weak stretches midyear, every year. But in recent playoffs, he's been decent: http://www.nhl.com/stats/goalies?reportType=season&seasonFrom=20162017&seasonTo=20182019&gameType=3&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=wins&page=0&pageSize=50

Savard is good, but the Caps are going to make the playoffs this year and have a chance to outscore teams and outhit teams. I think if they're all-in this year, he is slightly better than Jensen, but straight up, the same amount of money for twice as much term makes Jensen an even trade value, long term. If Columbus writes off this year, then three years of Jensen should be worth more than one year of Savard. Then in terms of team fit, adding Savard makes it unlikely the Caps can re-sign both of Holtby and Gudas. Maybe even neither, if the cap is flat and Backstrom gets a big raise. So in 21-22, their right defense is Carlson, Lewington, lefties/UFAs/2020 3rd round draft pick. The lefties are decent, but the current defensive group has the team at the top of the league. While that doesn't guarantee playoff wins, you have to get there to have a chance.


Eli, Kylo, what do you think of possible rentals of RHD Bogosian or LHD Scandella (if we were to move out Kemp or Jensen)?? Buffalo seems to be trending as a seller lately.
Dec 31, 2019 at 12:13
#21
Who adds what?
Joined: Jul 2017
Posts: 10,075
Likes: 1,758
Quoting: markykins1
ClockReads2113 convinced me of the no signing of Holtby yesterday. The Caps can do much more if they don't have to pony up for him as well as Backy. I wish Gudas got Jensen's 4 yr contract...


Yeah. He still might. It's more than any other team's fans think he's worth, on here. Toronto's the only team pencilling him in, and they're holding steady around three years by 2.5M, unless they give his spot to some combination of Holl, Liljegren, and whatever shakes loose from Carolina or St. Louis, which is more common.

Oilers and Flames fans are trying to sign Holtby on here at 3 years times three million dollars. I would love to see the Caps give him three or four years at five million dollars because in the playoffs, he is still a fierce competitor. They can gradually increase Samsonov's regular season workload, and if Samsonov earns the chance to start in the playoffs, Holtby can have his choice whether to stay or go. Re-signing Samsonov around 3x3 gives the Caps 8M of cap hit at the position with three proven options and another good prospect developing.

You look at teams like Florida, Montreal, NYR, and Tampa that have 11M or more in goaltending cap, and they're not in the playoffs.
markykins1 liked this.
Dec 31, 2019 at 12:34
#22
Who adds what?
Joined: Jul 2017
Posts: 10,075
Likes: 1,758
Quoting: markykins1
Eli, Kylo, what do you think of possible rentals of RHD Bogosian or LHD Scandella (if we were to move out Kemp or Jensen)?? Buffalo seems to be trending as a seller lately.


They each have their ups and downs. Might have to check stats closer to the deadline. I really don't get this whole "Kempny is bad" angle. But I dont' think anyone in sports can't be traded. In his years in Chicago, Kempny was 2nd among 16 defensemen on their team in plus/minus and corsi. The team was bad, and he was good. I think he's easily worth a 2nd round pick, and if the team believes Siegenthaler is ready for his spot, they can extend Siegenthaler at 3x1.2M or so, and pocket a pick and cap space, and then rent whatever's cheap for the third pair, or play Jen and Djoos.
Dec 31, 2019 at 1:00
#23
Thread Starter
Joined: Feb 2017
Posts: 300
Likes: 127
Quoting: Eli
They each have their ups and downs. Might have to check stats closer to the deadline. I really don't get this whole "Kempny is bad" angle. But I dont' think anyone in sports can't be traded. In his years in Chicago, Kempny was 2nd among 16 defensemen on their team in plus/minus and corsi. The team was bad, and he was good. I think he's easily worth a 2nd round pick, and if the team believes Siegenthaler is ready for his spot, they can extend Siegenthaler at 3x1.2M or so, and pocket a pick and cap space, and then rent whatever's cheap for the third pair, or play Jen and Djoos.


Well, you've probably seen that the metrics (I don't follow metrics btw, only eye test) say he is bringing everyone he partners' with down? By my watching him he seems slower right now. The big thing I have not liked about him the last year and a half are the penalties and last year especially he had some bad turnovers in games. I hope he can play his way back this year and just be quietly consistent, strong, not sloppy. I don't think he's bad though.
Dec 31, 2019 at 1:21
#24
Who adds what?
Joined: Jul 2017
Posts: 10,075
Likes: 1,758
Quoting: markykins1
Well, you've probably seen that the metrics (I don't follow metrics btw, only eye test) say he is bringing everyone he partners' with down? By my watching him he seems slower right now. The big thing I have not liked about him the last year and a half are the penalties and last year especially he had some bad turnovers in games. I hope he can play his way back this year and just be quietly consistent, strong, not sloppy. I don't think he's bad though.


So you're saying Carlson gets more imgainary goals when someone else gets a shift with him and plays their heart out to try to land a regular spot on the top pair, than with Kempny who has to pace himself and help Carlson set yet another career high in points? I'm okay with that. But if the price is right, like 2nd and an RHD prospect? Great.
Dec 31, 2019 at 1:21
#25
Who adds what?
Joined: Jul 2017
Posts: 10,075
Likes: 1,758
Quoting: markykins1
Well, you've probably seen that the metrics (I don't follow metrics btw, only eye test) say he is bringing everyone he partners' with down? By my watching him he seems slower right now. The big thing I have not liked about him the last year and a half are the penalties and last year especially he had some bad turnovers in games. I hope he can play his way back this year and just be quietly consistent, strong, not sloppy. I don't think he's bad though.


double post.
 
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