Joined: Aug. 2019
Posts: 391
Likes: 143
honestly ceci has been just as bad this season as he was with ottawa, he's just getting lucky.
his possession numbers are abysmal--no toronto defenseman with more than 10 games played this season has a worse corsi, worse corsi/60, or worse relative corsi. possession numbers and shooting statistics give him a terrible expected goals percentage. he's admittedly on the ice for a lot of good chances, but the team isn't converting those chances into goals. he's getting sheltered with an above-50% offensive zone start percentage (not just offensive zone faceoffs--this accounts for line changes too). even with sheltered minutes, ceci's a black hole for shots, with one of the worst on-ice shooting percentages on the team.
ceci looks okay because his teammates are bailing his ass out night-in and night-out. andersen is putting up .930 with ceci on the ice, compared to his .915 on the season. ceci's numbers with rielly are pretty bog average, but they're abysmal with muzzin. guess which of those two he's played 455 minutes with and which he's played 75 with. even with barrie, andersen is still playing lights out with a .915 sv% against a 44% corsi.
all signs point to ceci being lucky and a product of the team's success, with the underlying numbers indicating he's by far the worst regular on the team and being paid about $3.7m too much. keeping ceci for around 1.5m and sequestering him to the third line might be worth it, but i would rather take my chance with a rookie on an ELC or a replacement level AHL regular.