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Ceci evaluation time

Created by: Trickster
Team: 2019-20 Toronto Maple Leafs
Initial Creation Date: Jan. 2, 2020
Published: Jan. 2, 2020
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
January has started, in the offseason I wanted to look at evaluating Ceci around this mark.

Is he overpaid at 4.5 million, sure.
Is he the worst D man on the Leafs? No.

Is trading Ceci and not adding another D man improve the Leafs? No.
Is trading Ceci and adding another D man possible that improves the Leafs? Unlikely but not impossible, this is due to his salary mostly.
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DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2020
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2021
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2022
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ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
22$81,500,000$80,916,310$0$467,500$583,690
Left WingCentreRight Wing
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$2,250,000$2,250,000
RW, LW
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UFA - 2
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C
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$10,893,000$10,893,000
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$3,500,000$3,500,000
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UFA - 4
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$11,000,000$11,000,000
C, LW
NMC
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$6,962,366$6,962,366
RW
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$925,000$925,000
RW, LW
UFA - 1
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$700,000$700,000
C, RW
NTC
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C
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Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
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LD
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$5,000,000$5,000,000
G
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$4,500,000$4,500,000
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G
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LD/RD
UFA - 1
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$675,000$675,000
RD
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$792,500$792,500 (Performance Bonus$132,500$132K)
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$700,000$700,000
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$3,400,000$3,400,000
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$775,000$775,000
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$925,000$925,000
LW, RW
UFA - 1
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$5,300,000$5,300,000
RW
M-NTC, NMC
UFA - 1
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$5,250,000$5,250,000
RW
M-NTC, NMC
UFA - 1

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Keep Ceci right now and let him walk once season is done?
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Jan. 2, 2020 at 4:49 p.m.
#1
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I think the fact that he was able too bend Dubas over the table and get that much money would scare me as a leafs fan.
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Jan. 2, 2020 at 4:49 p.m.
#2
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hey look a squirrel
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Jan. 2, 2020 at 4:52 p.m.
#3
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Its entirely possible.

Although I don't think it'll happen. Also what is with Marincin on the bench, he's been pretty good since Muz went down.
Jan. 2, 2020 at 4:53 p.m.
#4
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Quoting: Mrpoopybuthole
I think the fact that he was able too bend Dubas over the table and get that much money would scare me as a leafs fan.


He didn't, it was more about the situation. He had already agreed to his QO which was basically the same. This is just Troll nation saying nonsense to rile up Leaf fans.
Jan. 2, 2020 at 4:54 p.m.
#5
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Ceci is a good bottom pair defender. That's pretty much his ceiling. I think he is without a shadow of a doubt the worst defenceman on the team. Its not even close in my mind. But he's not terrible, he's not even bad, he just isn't very good. An NHLer for sure, but sheltered on the 3rd pair. If he was making 1.5-2 million he'd be a good asset.
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Jan. 2, 2020 at 4:55 p.m.
#6
What in tarnation
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There's hardly any D available who'd be clearly better than Ceci, that can be acquired with reasonable price.

At this point you'd have to overpay for any D and most likely include Ceci in the trade in order to afford it.
Jan. 2, 2020 at 4:58 p.m.
#7
MK458
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Quoting: Mrpoopybuthole
I think the fact that he was able too bend Dubas over the table and get that much money would scare me as a leafs fan.


Just fyi Dubas didn't have much say in how much Ceci made. Because he was an RFA making 4.3 million on his last deal, you have to qualify him and pay him 4.3 million or higher. He got 4.5 million, which is like a 5% increase. I believe Ceci had arbitration rights and would've been able to get at least that 5% increase through arbitration anyways
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Jan. 2, 2020 at 5:00 p.m.
#8
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Quoting: Mrpoopybuthole
I think the fact that he was able too bend Dubas over the table and get that much money would scare me as a leafs fan.


Alright poopyhead, wasn't Dubas he bent over, he was an RFA that was Qualified by Ottawa prior to the trade,the Qualifying offer was a minimum of 4.5 as that was his salary the prior year
Jan. 2, 2020 at 5:00 p.m.
#9
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Quoting: mk458
Just fyi Dubas didn't have much say in how much Ceci made. Because he was an RFA making 4.3 million on his last deal, you have to qualify him and pay him 4.3 million or higher. He got 4.5 million, which is like a 5% increase. I believe Ceci had arbitration rights and would've been able to get at least that 5% increase through arbitration anyways


But that hurts that guys argument that Dubas always overpays everyone. Facts don't matter, only opinion.
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Jan. 2, 2020 at 5:04 p.m.
#10
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honestly ceci has been just as bad this season as he was with ottawa, he's just getting lucky.

his possession numbers are abysmal--no toronto defenseman with more than 10 games played this season has a worse corsi, worse corsi/60, or worse relative corsi. possession numbers and shooting statistics give him a terrible expected goals percentage. he's admittedly on the ice for a lot of good chances, but the team isn't converting those chances into goals. he's getting sheltered with an above-50% offensive zone start percentage (not just offensive zone faceoffs--this accounts for line changes too). even with sheltered minutes, ceci's a black hole for shots, with one of the worst on-ice shooting percentages on the team.

ceci looks okay because his teammates are bailing his ass out night-in and night-out. andersen is putting up .930 with ceci on the ice, compared to his .915 on the season. ceci's numbers with rielly are pretty bog average, but they're abysmal with muzzin. guess which of those two he's played 455 minutes with and which he's played 75 with. even with barrie, andersen is still playing lights out with a .915 sv% against a 44% corsi.

all signs point to ceci being lucky and a product of the team's success, with the underlying numbers indicating he's by far the worst regular on the team and being paid about $3.7m too much. keeping ceci for around 1.5m and sequestering him to the third line might be worth it, but i would rather take my chance with a rookie on an ELC or a replacement level AHL regular.
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Jan. 2, 2020 at 5:05 p.m.
#11
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they should've traded him before he signed, when he was just an RFA
Jan. 2, 2020 at 5:12 p.m.
#12
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Quoting: mk458
Just fyi Dubas didn't have much say in how much Ceci made. Because he was an RFA making 4.3 million on his last deal, you have to qualify him and pay him 4.3 million or higher. He got 4.5 million, which is like a 5% increase. I believe Ceci had arbitration rights and would've been able to get at least that 5% increase through arbitration anyways


Ceci’s qualifying offer was made by Ottawa and then expired. Dubas did not have to sign ceci. He could have went to arb and the leafs could have walked away. Leafs could have offered him 2.5m x 1 year. Perfectly legal.

I think dubas wanted to give him a shot. He has had it. Hasn’t been horrible but not really good either.
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Jan. 2, 2020 at 5:13 p.m.
#13
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The pairing of Ceci and Dermott have been a pleasant surprise fit as a third pairing. They have been reliable and steady, and the fact that neither of them are taking hard shifts against opponents' best offensive players certainly help. Leafs have to find a way to get rid of Martin Marincin - he is absolutely terrible. Ceci, really the opposite, as long as you keep an eye on him, but I really do like the Dermott-Ceci pairing. Is he worth his salary, especially as a 5-6 D, absolutely not, but for the sake of this season, he has met expectations as a bordline top 4. For any Leafs fan that expected him to be a top pairing guy, that's just ridiculous.
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Jan. 2, 2020 at 5:16 p.m.
#14
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Edited Jan. 2, 2020 at 5:33 p.m.
Ceci equals Zaitsev quality but for one year instead of four ( 1,8M overpaid ). Packed with Kerfoot or Hyman and 2nd pick he can bring much needed Top Pair D in return still.
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Jan. 2, 2020 at 5:23 p.m.
#15
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Quoting: MG1986
The pairing of Ceci and Dermott have been a pleasant surprise fit as a third pairing. They have been reliable and steady, and the fact that neither of them are taking hard shifts against opponents' best offensive players certainly help. Leafs have to find a way to get rid of Martin Marincin - he is absolutely terrible. Ceci, really the opposite, as long as you keep an eye on him, but I really do like the Dermott-Ceci pairing. Is he worth his salary, especially as a 5-6 D, absolutely not, but for the sake of this season, he has met expectations as a bordline top 4. For any Leafs fan that expected him to be a top pairing guy, that's just ridiculous.


Then explain why Marincin is getting harder assignments currently with Holl than Ceci is getting? Marincin is a good #7 defenceman to have, he isn't worth a full time spot but he's an awesome penalty killer (Probably the best on the team) and seems to be okay under Keefe's system (so far anyways, the guy does this to me all the time. Gets my hopes up and then blows it all up)

Ceci is really not good. He is not a top 4 and not even a bottom 4, he is a bottom pair guy who need to shelter. Dermott's possession numbers have tanked since he started playing with Ceci.
Jan. 2, 2020 at 5:24 p.m.
#16
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Quoting: Laudan
Ceci equals Zaitsev quality but for one year instead of four. Packed with Kerfoot or Hyman and 2nd pick he can bring much needed Top Pair D in return still.


Who could you get for that package that is actually a top pair defender? I certainly don't see any top pair defenders available, and certainly to get one it would cost a lot more than Ceci and Kerfoot.
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Jan. 2, 2020 at 5:26 p.m.
#17
Who adds what?
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Quoting: Laudan
Ceci equals Zaitsev quality but for one year instead of four. Packed with Kerfoot or Hyman and 2nd pick he can bring much needed Top Pair D in return still.


That sounds fair. Not a a #1, but someone who can keep up with a #1 like Rielly and cover back for him? Yeah, I think that gets done.
Jan. 2, 2020 at 5:28 p.m.
#18
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Josh Manson isn't a #1 RD any more than Cody Ceci is a #2 RD or Dalton Prout is a #3 RD. But sometimes teams have to play the hand they're dealt, and in this case, Keefe is doing well to hide Ceci on the third pairing. Dubas will address this in the off-season.
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Jan. 2, 2020 at 5:30 p.m.
#19
Formerly Jamiepo
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Quoting: sens65
they should've traded him before he signed, when he was just an RFA


His value might have been even less.

He’s a rhd on a team that needed one. Should not be playing the minutes he gets.
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Jan. 2, 2020 at 5:32 p.m.
#20
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Quoting: Laudan
Ceci equals Zaitsev quality but for one year instead of four. Packed with Kerfoot or Hyman and 2nd pick he can bring much needed Top Pair D in return still.


To be honest... zaitsev was better.
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Jan. 2, 2020 at 5:33 p.m.
#21
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Quoting: Jamiepo
To be honest... zaitsev was better.


NOW you tell us . . . .
Jan. 2, 2020 at 5:35 p.m.
#22
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Quoting: Jamiepo
To be honest... zaitsev was better.


He was, i was generalising....
Jan. 2, 2020 at 5:37 p.m.
#23
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Quoting: OldNYIfan
NOW you tell us . . . .


Been saying it the whole time. But I think the 4.5m in cap space may be more valuable than both.
Jan. 2, 2020 at 5:41 p.m.
#24
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Quoting: Jamiepo
To be honest... zaitsev was better.


Looking down the advanced statistics, zaitsev and ceci are having remarkably similar seasons, but that's an unfair comparison. It can't be apples to apples between ceci and zaitsev because Ottawa is very bad and Toronto is very good.
Jan. 2, 2020 at 5:45 p.m.
#25
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Quoting: grok
Looking down the advanced statistics, zaitsev and ceci are having remarkably similar seasons, but that's an unfair comparison. It can't be apples to apples between ceci and zaitsev because Ottawa is very bad and Toronto is very good.


Zaitsev was never that bad in Toronto. He did his job well. Took a ton of heat but hey, you can’t blame him for signing the deal. I still think zaitsev on a 3m deal for 3 years would be a leaf right now.
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