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Trying to predict the draft

Created by: BeterChiarelli
Team: 2020-21 Buffalo Sabres
Initial Creation Date: Jan. 11, 2020
Published: Jan. 11, 2020
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
Assumes:

1. Chicago is anticipating being unable to overcome their cap situation this summer
2. Buffalo has the #9oa pick
3. The Sabres core, management, and fans are ever-so desperate to be in playoff contention next season

I just personally can't see the Sabres' management using another top-10 pick at the draft while this team waits forever longer to make the playoffs. A bit brash, but Strome is better now than whoever the pick would turn into. It solves the issue of needing a legitimate #2C and would likely propel the Sabres to some form of relevance in the Spring of 2021.
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
2$750,000
1$800,000
2$1,465,000
6$5,850,000
2$750,000
3$4,750,000
2$975,000
7$7,500,000
1$850,000
2$3,500,000
7$6,500,000
Trades
1.
BUF
  1. Strome, Dylan [RFA Rights]
CHI
  1. Fitzgerald, Casey
  2. 2020 1st round pick (BUF)
  3. 2021 2nd round pick (BUF)
2.
BUF
  1. Kase, Ondrej
  2. 2021 2nd round pick (ANA)
ANA
  1. Ristolainen, Rasmus
  2. 2020 4th round pick (BUF)
Buyouts
Buried
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2020
Logo of the BUF
Logo of the BUF
Logo of the BUF
Logo of the DAL
2021
Logo of the BUF
Logo of the ANA
Logo of the BUF
Logo of the BUF
Logo of the BUF
Logo of the BUF
2022
Logo of the BUF
Logo of the BUF
Logo of the BUF
Logo of the BUF
Logo of the BUF
Logo of the BUF
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
22$81,500,000$80,397,500$1,487,500$4,337,500$1,102,500
Left WingCentreRight Wing
Logo of the Buffalo Sabres
$9,000,000$9,000,000
LW, RW
NMC
UFA - 7
Logo of the Buffalo Sabres
$10,000,000$10,000,000
C
UFA - 6
Logo of the Anaheim Ducks
$2,600,000$2,600,000
RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Buffalo Sabres
$4,750,000$4,750,000
RW, LW
UFA - 2
$6,500,000$6,500,000
C
UFA - 2
Logo of the Buffalo Sabres
$7,500,000$7,500,000
RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Buffalo Sabres
$4,500,000$4,500,000
LW, RW
M-NTC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Buffalo Sabres
$1,465,000$1,465,000
LW, C
RFA - 1
Logo of the Buffalo Sabres
$894,167$894,167 (Performance Bonus$850,000$850K)
C, LW
UFA - 3
Logo of the Buffalo Sabres
$750,000$750,000
C
UFA - 2
Logo of the Buffalo Sabres
$845,000$845,000
LW, C
RFA - 1
Logo of the Buffalo Sabres
$6,000,000$6,000,000
RW
M-NTC
UFA - 3
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
Logo of the Buffalo Sabres
$925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$2,850,000$3M)
LD/RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Buffalo Sabres
$3,875,000$3,875,000
RD
UFA - 2
Logo of the Buffalo Sabres
$3,500,000$3,500,000
G
UFA - 1
Logo of the Buffalo Sabres
$2,850,000$2,850,000
LD/RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Buffalo Sabres
$5,850,000$5,850,000
RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Buffalo Sabres
$2,750,000$2,750,000
G
UFA - 1
Logo of the Buffalo Sabres
$975,000$975,000
LD
UFA
Logo of the Buffalo Sabres
$925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$637,500$638K)
RD
RFA - 1
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
Logo of the Buffalo Sabres
$864,166$864,166
RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Buffalo Sabres
$800,000$800,000
RW, C
UFA - 2

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Jan. 11, 2020 at 4:43 p.m.
#1
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I think Ducks are going to try to acquire good draft picks, not give them away
Jan. 11, 2020 at 4:47 p.m.
#2
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Quoting: Copenhagen
I think Ducks are going to try to acquire good draft picks, not give them away


The Ducks are in a conundrum: they have too much on their roster in terms of talent, old core that deserves another shot at a title, and an internal cap that dictates they generate revenue.

Rebuilding is the smart thing - I don't disagree with that - but if the Ducks can hold onto their high 1st Round PIck and capitalize on Ristolainen fixing their blueline, they have most of the pieces needed for a good run at the thing. Gibson, Rackell, Lindholm, the kids expected to be on the roster next season. There's a lot there anchored by Getzlaf, Henrique, and Fowler's experience where they could realistically be playing in the playoffs next season.
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Jan. 11, 2020 at 4:55 p.m.
#3
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Quoting: BeterChiarelli
The Ducks are in a conundrum: they have too much on their roster in terms of talent, old core that deserves another shot at a title, and an internal cap that dictates they generate revenue.

Rebuilding is the smart thing - I don't disagree with that - but if the Ducks can hold onto their high 1st Round PIck and capitalize on Ristolainen fixing their blueline, they have most of the pieces needed for a good run at the thing. Gibson, Rackell, Lindholm, the kids expected to be on the roster next season. There's a lot there anchored by Getzlaf, Henrique, and Fowler's experience where they could realistically be playing in the playoffs next season.


Or they can draft well in one of the strongest drafts in history and be good for the next 12 years and not worry about playoffs next year. They will be sellers, not trading for players that have been in the league for 5 to 10 years
Jan. 11, 2020 at 4:55 p.m.
#4
Once a Kings Fan Too
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The best we can do on Kase is our 2020 third for Ristolainen alone. Or our 2021 second for your 2020 fourth. We're not giving up our first two picks this year.
Jan. 11, 2020 at 4:57 p.m.
#5
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Quoting: Copenhagen
Or they can draft well in one of the strongest drafts in history and be good for the next 12 years and not worry about playoffs next year. They will be sellers, not trading for players that have been in the league for 5 to 10 years


You must've missed the part where the Ducks have an internal cap and survive, quite literally, on generating revenue. There's a large portion of the team that could/should/would be playoff performers, and they're missing (really) a solitary piece and an actual coach. If ownership can't handle the dip in revenue a la rebuild, this is the way to go.

Quoting: OldNYIfan
The best we can do on Kase is our 2020 third for Ristolainen alone. Or our 2021 second for your 2020 fourth. We're not giving up our first two picks this year.


I ripped the trade off of another AGM, but I think using the 2021 pick is the common ground here.
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Jan. 11, 2020 at 5:16 p.m.
#6
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I don't see the sabres trading a top 10 pick, I'm kinda expecting closer to top 5 by season's end. As long as teams in front of them win spots, top 5 is within reach. I would rather swing big at the pick anyways. Unless our gm thinks he should pick a goalie. It's definitely frustrating, I'm not sure what kind of plan or eye for talent our gm has, and we are not a Dylan strome away.
Jan. 11, 2020 at 5:28 p.m.
#7
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Quoting: sabres89
I don't see the sabres trading a top 10 pick, I'm kinda expecting closer to top 5 by season's end. As long as teams in front of them win spots, top 5 is within reach. I would rather swing big at the pick anyways. Unless our gm thinks he should pick a goalie. It's definitely frustrating, I'm not sure what kind of plan or eye for talent our gm has, and we are not a Dylan strome away.


Strictly logically speaking, there are three teams in the Atlantic alone that would beat the brakes off of the Sabres in a tank-war. Then you have the Californian ineptitude of the Pacific division to contend with. Maybe the Sharks find a way back to .500 hockey, but you also need to consider the Devils playing some of the worst hockey seen this decade. I don't think it's realistic to bank on the Sabres having another top-5 pick, and that the #8 or #9 slots are far more reasonable. Is the fix to your franchise's woes going to be found in that pick? Long-term, it's possible, but I wouldn't bet money on the short-term gain.

I thought the big issue with the Sabres was the lack of a true #2C - and by proxy - the lack of scoring that goes with it? Goaltending's been a bit iffy but UPL is still a year or two out.
Jan. 11, 2020 at 5:33 p.m.
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You do realize that Strome hasn't had sustained success without Debrincat in the NHL... And you're giving up a guy who will likely be a much much much much better spec than Cozens (and also probably NHL ready...)

Also ANA isn't trading Kase for Risto, I'm just done arguing that tho
Jan. 11, 2020 at 5:40 p.m.
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Quoting: AFOX10900
You do realize that Strome hasn't had sustained success without Debrincat in the NHL... And you're giving up a guy who will likely be a much much much much better spec than Cozens (and also probably NHL ready...)

Also ANA isn't trading Kase for Risto, I'm just done arguing that tho


I'll need you to try that first part again chief. One of us had a stroke after the third "much", and I can't yet rule out it was both of us.
Jan. 11, 2020 at 5:41 p.m.
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Quoting: BeterChiarelli
I'll need you to try that first part again chief. One of us had a stroke after the third "much", and I can't yet rule out it was both of us.


The 2020 draft is>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>the 2019 draft and your pick is in basically the same spot... Picking in the top 10 is roughly = to picking 3rd in 2019...
Jan. 11, 2020 at 5:55 p.m.
#11
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Why do think the Hawks can't undo their cap situation next year. Seabrook is on LTIR next season.
Jan. 11, 2020 at 5:58 p.m.
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Quoting: AFOX10900
The 2020 draft is>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>the 2019 draft and your pick is in basically the same spot... Picking in the top 10 is roughly = to picking 3rd in 2019...


I genuinely believe that to be a falsehood. Depth in the draft rarely refers to the top-10 in either draft. It's the list of names that become available well into the tail end of the 1st Round. A case can be made for the top-three of 2019 and 2020 being roughly equivalent and that a balanced blend between the two would arise if both draft years were merged.
Jan. 11, 2020 at 5:59 p.m.
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Quoting: palhal
Why do think the Hawks can't undo their cap situation next year. Seabrook is on LTIR next season.


The problem goes beyond Seabrook, does it not? The Debrincat extension, Maata, de Haan, Shaw? All pieces that cost too much and will cost the Blackhawks assets to move out when they need to prioritize assets in.
Jan. 11, 2020 at 7:32 p.m.
#14
Hockey Fan13
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I like the thinking behind the Blackhawks trade. Dach looks like a future 1c I wonder if they would tell Toews and Kane it's a rebuild and try to move them. It may require a bit of retaining but it would bring a few good prospects back and clear a lit of space.
Jan. 11, 2020 at 7:40 p.m.
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Quoting: BeterChiarelli
I genuinely believe that to be a falsehood. Depth in the draft rarely refers to the top-10 in either draft. It's the list of names that become available well into the tail end of the 1st Round. A case can be made for the top-three of 2019 and 2020 being roughly equivalent and that a balanced blend between the two would arise if both draft years were merged.


2020 is just better, high end talent is so much better, and the depth, Raymond>>Hughes
Jan. 11, 2020 at 7:46 p.m.
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Quoting: AFOX10900
2020 is just better, high end talent is so much better, and the depth, Raymond>>Hughes


This is just ignorant.
Jan. 11, 2020 at 7:47 p.m.
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Quoting: BeterChiarelli
This is just ignorant.


No, it's is called recency bias vs actually looking into them
Jan. 11, 2020 at 8:05 p.m.
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Quoting: AFOX10900
No, it's is called recency bias vs actually looking into them


If you think Raymond's 15 point pace in the SHL is better than Hughes' 36-point pace in the NHL then I do not know what to tell you other than you're wrong.

Raymond is slipping into projected #4oa territory. Lafreniere is the only name in this years' draft that would have challenged either Hughes or Kakko for the title of 1st Overall last season. Depth in a draft year entirely refers to names outside of the top-10. Last year there was a clear, defined top-10 picks. This year there's a tier of 15ish. There's more talent sure, but it does not imply better talent.
Jan. 11, 2020 at 8:12 p.m.
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Quoting: BeterChiarelli
If you think Raymond's 15 point pace in the SHL is better than Hughes' 36-point pace in the NHL then I do not know what to tell you other than you're wrong.

Raymond is slipping into projected #4oa territory. Lafreniere is the only name in this years' draft that would have challenged either Hughes or Kakko for the title of 1st Overall last season. Depth in a draft year entirely refers to names outside of the top-10. Last year there was a clear, defined top-10 picks. This year there's a tier of 15ish. There's more talent sure, but it does not imply better talent.


Raymond also gets roughly 5 mins/game (like 6:24 or smth iirc) and lots of d zone and PK deployment... What a way to get tons of points, plus he has a full year+ of development to catch Hughes
Jan. 11, 2020 at 8:26 p.m.
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Quoting: AFOX10900
Raymond also gets roughly 5 mins/game (like 6:24 or smth iirc) and lots of d zone and PK deployment... What a way to get tons of points, plus he has a full year+ of development to catch Hughes


His average TOI during Champions League play was 9:17. Minimal minutes sure, but where was his production during the WJCs? He and Holtz would have had ample opportunity to produce as Fagemo and Hoglander consumed the stronger defensive assignments. Hell, even in his draft-year WJC's Hughes matches Raymond's production in literally half of the games.
Jan. 11, 2020 at 8:30 p.m.
#21
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Quoting: BeterChiarelli
His average TOI during Champions League play was 9:17. Minimal minutes sure, but where was his production during the WJCs? He and Holtz would have had ample opportunity to produce as Fagemo and Hoglander consumed the stronger defensive assignments. Hell, even in his draft-year WJC's Hughes matches Raymond's production in literally half of the games.


Sample size... And using 1 stat, and comparing a US basically god squad to an average (offensively) swedish team

And I can't say this for sure, I didn't watch a ton of SWE till the medal round, but ik most WJC teams aren't give fans of playing kids in their D year unless they have great chemistry with other players
 
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