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Tampa Cap math for 2020 and Cirelli

Created by: BOLTLOVER1
Team: 2019-20 Tampa Bay Lightning
Initial Creation Date: Jan. 12, 2020
Published: Jan. 12, 2020
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
Realistic view of Tampa Cap for 2020/21 .. about 8M available with 13 players signed .. let's assume cap goes to 83M .. so about 9.5M available.

Now let's look at Tampa RFAs and what a "market short term deal" could look like .. assuming no offer sheets.

1. Cirelli ... 3 year 12M .. 4M AAV .. as I have always said.. poor mans Patrice Bergeron 2 way center .. still lacks offensive skill set but improving

2. Sergachev .. 3 years 4M AAV .. HUGE improvement last 2 months .. maturity and less mistakes .. still needs more time and perform in playoffs. McAvoy was 5M AAV and Serg abit less.

3. Cernek .. rock solid Defensive D .. Brandon Carlo twin .. 3 year 3M AAV

Soooooo.... there you have it .. another 11 to 13M for above if above is low .. let's call it 12M ..

So Tampa with 16 players signed would be around 3M over cap with another 10M needed to sign 7 to 8 other fill in players.. so how to shed/reduce 13M?

Answer .. Johnson and Gourde .. if Killorn leaves entire teams culture will be destroyed
Buyouts
Buried
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2020
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2021
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2022
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ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
23$81,500,000$79,967,498$0$1,180,000$1,532,502
Left WingCentreRight Wing
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$5,000,000$5,000,000
RW, C, LW
NTC
UFA - 5
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$8,500,000$8,500,000
LW, C
NMC
UFA - 5
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$5,300,000$5,300,000
LW, RW
NTC
UFA - 3
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$4,450,000$4,450,000
RW, LW
NTC
UFA - 4
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$6,750,000$6,750,000
C, RW
UFA - 3
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$5,166,666$5,166,666
C, LW, RW
NTC
UFA - 6
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$900,000$900,000
LW, RW
UFA - 1
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$1,650,000$1,650,000
C, LW, RW
UFA - 2
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$9,500,000$9,500,000
RW
UFA - 8
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$864,167$864,167
LW, RW
UFA - 1
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$833,333$833,333
C
UFA - 1
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$728,333$728,333 (Performance Bonus$182,500$182K)
C, LW
UFA - 1
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$700,000$700,000
LW
UFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
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$7,875,000$7,875,000
LD
NMC
UFA - 6
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$1,750,000$1,750,000
RD
NTC
UFA - 1
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$3,500,000$3,500,000
G
UFA - 1
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$6,750,000$6,750,000
LD
NTC
UFA - 7
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$1,300,000$1,300,000
LD/RD
UFA - 1
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$1,300,000$1,300,000
G
UFA - 2
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$1,700,000$1,700,000
LD
NTC
UFA - 2
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$700,000$700,000
RD
UFA - 1
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$894,166$894,166 (Performance Bonus$850,000$850K)
LD/RD
UFA - 1
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$697,500$697,500 (Performance Bonus$147,500$148K)
RD
UFA - 1

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Jan. 12, 2020 at 7:42 a.m.
#1
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With McDonagh being on the long term plan for 2LD I think there is a decent chance Sergachev is traded this summer if his ask is too high. Bolts are in an awkward spot with the expansion coming up. They have 5 defense they probably want to protect (Hedman, McDonagh, Sergachev, Cernak and Foote), they also have a core group of forwards they want to protect.
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Jan. 12, 2020 at 8:12 a.m.
#2
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Moving Johnson and gourde is easier said than done. They aren’t going to waive their NTCs for a dumpster team like Detroit or Ottawa and most teams they would waive for aren’t going to absorb those contracts without sending another back
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Jan. 12, 2020 at 8:20 a.m.
#3
LongtimeLeafsufferer
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To show clarity you should have made 2020/21 roster. All those NTC, NMCs likely aren't waiving which really only leaves Killorn with 16 trade list. Even at that he can make a list which makes it difficult for the Tampa to trade him
IMO Tampa is going to the most interesting off season team, needing to be cap compliant, but having RFA signings, and limited options in high cap players that might have to be traded.
Jan. 12, 2020 at 8:20 a.m.
#4
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Also, 29 other gms are circling like sharks around cirelli, sergachev, and cernak if they still are unsigned by July 1. No way Tampa can match offer sheets with higher aav’s than you named for each player
Jan. 12, 2020 at 8:23 a.m.
#5
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Quote:
Answer .. Johnson and Gourde .. if Killorn leaves entire teams culture will be destroyed

Don't be so dramatic. The guy was ass his last couple of season (in face we all wanted him to be gone) and we still were okay.
If we can keep him, good. If we can't, we'll get a great deal in return as we'd be selling him at his absolute max value.

Priority is obviously to keep the young studs that will be part of this team's core for many years to come. If eventually we'll lose Killorn in the process it will be worth it and won't be too dramatic.
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Jan. 12, 2020 at 8:25 a.m.
#6
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Quoting: Ledge_And_Dairy
With McDonagh being on the long term plan for 2LD I think there is a decent chance Sergachev is traded this summer if his ask is too high. Bolts are in an awkward spot with the expansion coming up. They have 5 defense they probably want to protect (Hedman, McDonagh, Sergachev, Cernak and Foote), they also have a core group of forwards they want to protect.


What dumb GM would trade Sergachev away when he's shown that he's becoming a ****ing stud?
McDonagh will be exposed at the Expansion draft, and if Seattle takes him it'll be fine.
The protection draft list will be this one:
Stamkos, Kuch, Point, Cirelli, Hedman, Sergachev, Cernak, C. Foote, Vas
Jan. 12, 2020 at 8:27 a.m.
#7
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Quoting: palhal
To show clarity you should have made 2020/21 roster. All those NTC, NMCs likely aren't waiving which really only leaves Killorn with 16 trade list. Even at that he can make a list which makes it difficult for the Tampa to trade him
IMO Tampa is going to the most interesting off season team, needing to be cap compliant, but having RFA signings, and limited options in high cap players that might have to be traded.


Enough with that BS argument ffs. It's a 16 teams trade list, not a 4 teams trade list. That argument is irrational and we both know it.

Quote:
IMO Tampa is going to the most interesting off season team, needing to be cap compliant, but having RFA signings, and limited options in high cap players that might have to be traded.

This obsevation is true though, this offseason will definitely be very interesting for Tampa.
Jan. 12, 2020 at 8:32 a.m.
#8
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Quoting: truculence67
Also, 29 other gms are circling like sharks around cirelli, sergachev, and cernak if they still are unsigned by July 1. No way Tampa can match offer sheets with higher aav’s than you named for each player


Just as with all the "Brayden Point offser sheet", you are not keeping in mind that the player has to be willing to go away from Tampa.

Cirelli, Sergachev, Cernak. All three are getting good ice time deployment, used in key situation and are relied upon by the coaching staff. It's not like some of them could see an appeal of an offer sheet for getting a bigger role on another team. They already play a big role in Tampa. Then add to this the fact that they get to play in Tampa, which is one of the best locations if you are a hockey player. Top notch facilities, competitive team that should be a contender for years to come. No State Tax. And the quality of life is amazing.

Do you really think, let's say, a contract with 750k-1M more per year in some ugly ass city makes up for all of this? I don't think so.
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Jan. 12, 2020 at 8:40 a.m.
#9
LongtimeLeafsufferer
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Quoting: Zwui21
Enough with that BS argument ffs. It's a 16 teams trade list, not a 4 teams trade list. That argument is irrational and we both know it.

Quote:
IMO Tampa is going to the most interesting off season team, needing to be cap compliant, but having RFA signings, and limited options in high cap players that might have to be traded.

This obsevation is true though, this offseason will definitely be very interesting for Tampa.


BS argument? You're living in fantasy. Most NHL teams are close to to the cap or even with their own RFA signing over the cap. Killorn puts those teams on the trade list. Now those teams now have to finding suitors for their unwanted players. You know it's a really reduced reality trade list. Sure would like to see a Killorn trade with the posting to his new team.
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Jan. 12, 2020 at 9:03 a.m.
#10
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Quoting: Zwui21
What dumb GM would trade Sergachev away when he's shown that he's becoming a ****ing stud?
McDonagh will be exposed at the Expansion draft, and if Seattle takes him it'll be fine.
The protection draft list will be this one:
Stamkos, Kuch, Point, Cirelli, Hedman, Sergachev, Cernak, C. Foote, Vas


You have to make it to the expansion draft first, Tampas cap struggles this upcoming year are real and very big. I love Serg as a player and would love to keep him but McDonagh is pretty unmovable atm and Cernak/Cirelli are more important for the future. I think if Serg is asking for anything above 4M (which is likely, asset management wise it makes more sense to trade him out west for a equal value player still on ELC. This is assuming the 5M contracts become near impossible to move.
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Jan. 12, 2020 at 9:15 a.m.
#11
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Quoting: Zwui21
Just as with all the "Brayden Point offser sheet", you are not keeping in mind that the player has to be willing to go away from Tampa.

Cirelli, Sergachev, Cernak. All three are getting good ice time deployment, used in key situation and are relied upon by the coaching staff. It's not like some of them could see an appeal of an offer sheet for getting a bigger role on another team. They already play a big role in Tampa. Then add to this the fact that they get to play in Tampa, which is one of the best locations if you are a hockey player. Top notch facilities, competitive team that should be a contender for years to come. No State Tax. And the quality of life is amazing.

Do you really think, let's say, a contract with 750k-1M more per year in some ugly ass city makes up for all of this? I don't think so.


Yes I think an additional million dollars per year actually does make up for that.
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Jan. 12, 2020 at 10:24 a.m.
#12
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Quoting: Zwui21
What dumb GM would trade Sergachev away when he's shown that he's becoming a ****ing stud?
McDonagh will be exposed at the Expansion draft, and if Seattle takes him it'll be fine.
The protection draft list will be this one:
Stamkos, Kuch, Point, Cirelli, Hedman, Sergachev, Cernak, C. Foote, Vas


Expansion draft is after next season. So that whole statement is irrelevant
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Jan. 12, 2020 at 10:28 a.m.
#13
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Edited Jan. 12, 2020 at 12:02 p.m.
Quoting: truculence67
Yes I think an additional million dollars per year actually does make up for that.


It's like this guy thinks all other cities are Detroit or Buffalo. I also have never heard Tampa mentioned as one of the nicest cities in the US and Florida man memes certainly take some lustre out of the quality of life argument
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Jan. 12, 2020 at 10:31 a.m.
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Quoting: PleaseBanMeForMyOwnGood
Expansion draft is after next season. So that whole statement is irrelevant


Not really, I am sure the teams are already coming up with their plans. This board is based on subjective opinions on what people think might happen so where the Lightning sit today for the expansion draft I think his expansion list is correct.

Kucherov, Stamkos, Point, Cirelli, Hedman, Sergachev, Cernak and Foote. Leave McDonagh exposed.
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Jan. 12, 2020 at 10:33 a.m.
#15
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Quoting: PleaseBanMeForMyOwnGood
It's like this but thinks all other cities are Detroit or Buffalo. I also have never heard Tampa mentioned as one of the nicest cities in the US and Florida man memes certainly take some lustre out of the quality of life argument


You are using Florida man memes as a basis for the quality of living in Florida. SMH.
Jan. 12, 2020 at 10:33 a.m.
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Quoting: stammerman
Not really, I am sure the teams are already coming up with their plans. This board is based on subjective opinions on what people think might happen so where the Lightning sit today for the expansion draft I think his expansion list is correct.

Kucherov, Stamkos, Point, Cirelli, Hedman, Sergachev, Cernak and Foote. Leave McDonagh exposed.


Cool, the problem is your cap problem is for next season. The expansion draft is after next season. Getting the room to sign all those players will Be hard. On top of that, what if Seattle just says nah, we'll take someone who isn't old and likely declining soon but still has term. Then what?
Jan. 12, 2020 at 10:34 a.m.
#17
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Quoting: stammerman
You are using Florida man memes as a basis for the quality of living in Florida. SMH.


I'm just saying, Florida is not widely known for having a high quality of life. The crime in the state is high.
Jan. 12, 2020 at 10:43 a.m.
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Quoting: Ledge_And_Dairy
You have to make it to the expansion draft first, Tampas cap struggles this upcoming year are real and very big. I love Serg as a player and would love to keep him but McDonagh is pretty unmovable atm and Cernak/Cirelli are more important for the future. I think if Serg is asking for anything above 4M (which is likely, asset management wise it makes more sense to trade him out west for a equal value player still on ELC. This is assuming the 5M contracts become near impossible to move.


Cernak is not more important than Sergachev. Cirelli and Sergachev are the two Rfas that are the priority to try and get signed and fit under the cap. Cernak is a complimentary player, Cirelli has proven and Sergachev is starting to prove they drive the play on the ice.

What I do know is they will have a massive Cap Crunch like you say so its going to be difficult to in every way this off season to try and keep all three of these players. Its going to be interesting to see what they do but I hope they figure out a way to keep the youth and move the older mid tier players.
Jan. 12, 2020 at 10:47 a.m.
#19
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Edited Jan. 12, 2020 at 10:52 a.m.
Good discussion.. Zwui21 is now "Captain Disneyland" .. lol .. Killorn was JUST made Asst. Captain.. you DONT trade him as it will kill the locker room. This is a reality .. contracts matter to others on team. Gourde is HUGE issue on team .. zero doubt.

This discussion is why I suggested trading Cernek now and get veteran playoff assets .. I had previously endorsed trading Sergachev but he has progressd alot .. 1 of then needs to go .. in reality I think Tampa loses 1 of them to an offer sheet which isnt so bad. Patriots for years have lived on picks from players leaving .. turnover is GOOD thing in moderation
Jan. 12, 2020 at 10:52 a.m.
#20
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Edited Jan. 12, 2020 at 11:01 a.m.
Quoting: PleaseBanMeForMyOwnGood
Cool, the problem is your cap problem is for next season. The expansion draft is after next season. Getting the room to sign all those players will Be hard. On top of that, what if Seattle just says nah, we'll take someone who isn't old and likely declining soon but still has term. Then what?


That is what this board is for, to talk about what ifs. Maybe they keep all those players thru this cap crunch coming up this off season cap crunch, maybe they don't but its fun to speculate based on where the team is right now. Its like everyone talking about players with NTC not waiving or team x will offer sheet team y RFA and he will accept. Players waive NTC all the time and rarely does an offer sheet work but when you read these boards that is all everyone talks about. Speculation about your team is fun, even if its not plausible it makes conversation. BOLTLOVER annoys the **** out of me with their posts most of the time but its brings conversation and 10 minutes of Lightning fun when I come to this board.
Jan. 12, 2020 at 10:54 a.m.
#21
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Ah don't try to compliment me Stammerwoman .. cool .. but you do bring up a good point .. even a blind squirrel finds an acorn once in a while... waiving NTCs are MUCH more common than completed offer sheets.
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Jan. 12, 2020 at 10:56 a.m.
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Quoting: BOLTLOVER1
Good discussion.. Zwui21 is now "Captain Disneyland" .. lol .. Killorn was JUST made Asst. Captain.. you DONT trade him as it will kill the locker room. This is a reality .. contracts matter to others on team. Gourde is HUGE issue on team .. zero doubt.

This discussion is why I suggested trading Cernek now and get veteran playoff assets .. I had previously endorsed trading Sergachev but he has progressd alot .. 1 of then needs to go .. in reality I think Tampa loses 1 of them to an offer sheet which isnt so bad. Patriots for years have lived on picks from players leaving .. turnover is GOOD thing in moderation


I do agree that Gourde's contract is the worst on the team and a big concern going into the off season cap crunch on what they do with him. I also agree I don't think they can trade Killorn now. This off season is going to be interesting to watch what happens.
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Jan. 12, 2020 at 10:58 a.m.
#23
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Quoting: Ledge_And_Dairy
With McDonagh being on the long term plan for 2LD I think there is a decent chance Sergachev is traded this summer if his ask is too high. Bolts are in an awkward spot with the expansion coming up. They have 5 defense they probably want to protect (Hedman, McDonagh, Sergachev, Cernak and Foote), they also have a core group of forwards they want to protect.


Interesting point. What do you think his value is?
Jan. 12, 2020 at 11:01 a.m.
#24
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Quoting: stammerman
That is what this board is for, to talk about what ifs. Maybe they keep all those players thru this cap crunch coming up this off season cap crunch, maybe they don't but its fun to speculate based on where the team is right now. Its like everyone talking about players with NTC not waiving or team x will offer sheet team y RFA and he will accept. Players waive NTC all the time and rarely does an offer sheet work but when you read these boards that is all everyone talks about. Speculation about your team is fun, even if its not plausible it makes conversation. BOLTLOVER annoys the **** out of me with is posts most of the time but its brings conversation and 10 minutes of Lightning fun when I come to this board.


Oh yeah I agree with that. Us Leafs fans have been hearing about how all out stars were signing oversheets ever day. It's unlikely, but the cap crunch facing Tampa is much worse than what TO had to deal with. Apart from the Marleau trade, (thanks Lou) TO didn't really have any contracts that were hard to move and currently have a tonne of depth that could be moved if room was needed. Tampa has some overpaid vets that will be harder to move, it will likely cost some assets or they'll be give aways. It's not going to be another summer where you send JT Miller for a 1st again. Teams are going to bend you over.
Jan. 12, 2020 at 11:07 a.m.
#25
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BOLT LOVER
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Edited Jan. 12, 2020 at 11:33 a.m.
The Mc Donough situation is an emerging one here in Tampa .. solid player no doubt with manageable contract . . but he now over 30, just got hurt and was just stripped of Asst. Captain status and given to Killorn .. if he didn't have NTC I would say he would be no brainer to trade off season and keep both Serg and Cernek ... regardless he 100% will be exposed for Seattle to take
 
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