Leafs QO for Mikheyev and Engvall plus Dermotts value

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Created by: Britishbulldog

Team: 2019-20 Toronto Maple Leafs

Initial Creation Date: Jan. 12, 2020

Published: Jan. 12, 2020

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

***Mikheyev and Engvall
I am watching Leaf fans breaking open the bank for these 2 rookie forwards. What I have seen consistently is other teams don't know who the rookies are the 1st season but play them much differently the next season if that player made an impact as a rookie.

Similar to Johnsson signing a QO bridge deal to prove he was for real, both these forwards need to do this as well before they get signed to Johnsson, Kerfoot and Kapanen money.

I would like to see both signed to 1 year deals to something around the QO which is:
- Players who earned less than $660,000 in the previous NHL season must be offered at least 110 percent of last season's salary in a qualifying offer.
- Players who earned up to $1 million must be offered 105 percent.
- Players who earned over $1 million must be offered 100 percent.
(https://www.liveabout.com/nhl-restricted-free-agents-2778980)

Even $1.1 - $1.25 MIL would work to see if they are able to sustain their production and show they aren't flash in the pan.

***Dermott - small LHD that simply isn't bad
I think we have become twisted in our view of Leaf players after the last 4 decades(at least for me) of over hyped prospects, etc.

2 dmen that are RHD... and bigger as well (6'2" TVR and 6'4" Mayfield) had similar offensive numbers as 3rd pair dmen but signed for less that $1 MIL on their 2nd 'prove me' contracts. They followed them with $2.3 MIL x 2 and $1.45 MIL x 5 respectively.

( As you probably all know...TVR has been struggling and even a healthy scratch this year so appears to have been a bit over paid)

I have seen some here give Dermott over $3 MIL and one gave over $4 MIL. Dermott is replaceable and not a core piece.

As a 3rd pair dman I feel he should be given a "Mayfield" style contract or trade him and let Sandin help us forget who Dermott is.

************************

How nuts am I?

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Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2020
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ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
22	$81,500,000	$81,997,143	$0	$70,000	-$497,143

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Hyman, Zach $2,250,000$2,250,000 RW, LW M-NTC UFA - 2	Matthews, Auston $11,634,000$11,634,000 C UFA - 5	Marner, Mitchell $10,893,000$10,893,000 RW UFA - 6
Johnsson, Andreas $3,400,000$3,400,000 LW, RW UFA - 4	Tavares, John $11,000,000$11,000,000 C, LW NMC UFA - 6	Nylander, William $6,962,366$6,962,366 RW UFA - 5
Engvall, Pierre $925,000$925,000 RW, LW UFA - 1	Kerfoot, Alexander $3,500,000$3,500,000 LW, C, RW UFA - 4	Kapanen, Kasperi $3,200,000$3,200,000 RW UFA - 3
Moore, Trevor $775,000$775,000 LW, RW UFA - 2		Spezza, Jason $700,000$700,000 C, RW NTC UFA - 1
	Gauthier, Frédérik $675,000$675,000 C UFA - 1

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Rielly, Morgan $5,000,000$5,000,000 LD UFA - 3	Ceci, Cody $4,500,000$4,500,000 RD UFA - 1	Andersen, Frederik $5,000,000$5,000,000 G M-NTC UFA - 2
Muzzin, Jake $4,000,000$4,000,000 LD UFA - 1	Barrie, Tyson $2,750,000$2,750,000 RD UFA - 1	Hutchinson, Michael $700,000$700,000 G UFA - 1
Dermott, Travis $863,333$863,333 LD/RD UFA - 1	Holl, Justin $675,000$675,000 RD UFA - 1

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
Marincin, Martin $700,000$700,000 LD UFA - 1		Horton, Nathan $5,300,000$5,300,000 RW M-NTC, NMC UFA - 1
Timashov, Dmytro $694,444$694,444 ($70,000$70K) LW UFA - 1		Clarkson, David $5,250,000$5,250,000 RW M-NTC, NMC UFA - 1
		Mikheyev, Ilya $925,000$925,000 LW, RW UFA - 1

Jan. 12, 2020 at 11:59 a.m.

leaflet

Joined: May 2017

Posts: 938

Likes: 253

That sounds very reasonable. They may try to sign Mikheyev for longer, but you're right to say contract number speculation is inflated on this site.

I remember just a few years ago when Brown and Hyman were due for a contract. It would be funny to dig that up. People making AGMs would get lambasted for not giving Connor Brown at least 5M AAV (who just scored 20 goals at the time). Somehow fans are not reliable for these kinds of projections.

Britishbulldog liked this.

Jan. 12, 2020 at 12:04 p.m.

Britishbulldog

Thread Starter

C,mon Leafs...Please

Joined: Jun. 2015

Posts: 836

Likes: 329

Quoting: leaflet

You get what I am thinking exactly. Brown scored followed the 20 with 14 goals and then only 8 without ever missing a game (meaning it wasn't injuries that limited him).

With a chance to breakout offensively he is on pace for 12-13 goals this year.

leaflet liked this.

Jan. 12, 2020 at 12:33 p.m.

AnalyticsGeek

Banned

Joined: Sep. 2019

Posts: 5,011

Likes: 1,636

Quoting: Britishbulldog

Quoting: leaflet

If the Leafs sign Mikheyev for 3 or more years, expect the AAV ago be at least 3 million dollars. I think he’s got even more talent and tools than Johnsson.

Britishbulldog liked this.

Jan. 12, 2020 at 12:36 p.m.

Jack_

Kings v5 GM

Joined: Feb. 2018

Posts: 4,768

Likes: 1,626

Dermott will be a core piece and is very valuable. He hasn't played big minutes yet and he wont put up points so his cap hit wont be very high. Hes got all they tools to be a #3 defenseman but he hasn't got the minutes yet. He will be very good

Britishbulldog liked this.

Jan. 12, 2020 at 12:42 p.m.

palhal

LongtimeLeafsufferer

Joined: Jul. 2015

Posts: 59,425

Likes: 22,636

Think it rather silly to think Sandin will make the Leafs forgot Dermot (or whoever is the other LHD,) since they both play the same amount of minutes. Dermot played well with rookie last year and now is playing well with Ceci. Don't think Dermot's on ice value can be dismissed. Now the next contract..both sides have to agree if they want to go long or short. Pros and cons for both parties
Mikheyvov has just two year till he's a UFA, so Leafs might want a longer contract for control, but if they want a show me contract....that's OK, just be prepared to pay more if Mikheyvov does show them.

Britishbulldog liked this.

Jan. 12, 2020 at 1:31 p.m.

tomato43

tomato

Joined: Oct. 2018

Posts: 526

Likes: 305

Right now Dermott is blocked into a third pairing role, next year he wont have this issue. With Muzzin likely gone he will be moved up to the second pairing and his minutes should increase substantially. If you sign him to a 1 year deal at a low value you are just allowing him to increase his value substantially next year. I am confident in Dermotts puck moving ability that he will have an increase in point in the coming year(s). Dermott knows that his role is likely to increase next year and thus his potential earnings the following year could be greater. I don't think with that likely upcoming opportunity he will want to accept a lowball offer for more than 1 year. I would rather lock in on a 2.75M X 3 year contract which might be a little bit of a over payment as he doesn't yet have the minutes or points to justify such an increase but i think he has the potential to earn one if only given a 1 year low-ball contract with the potential role increase next season. A three year deal has his new contract spaced out from Riellys potential new deal which i would like. If he does prove to live up to the potential i think he has then his next deal will happen when he is 26 years old. I dont want to be re upping players for there 3rd and 4th contracts when they are 28-30 years old. If Dermott is 26 year year old RFA he can be resigned without having the tail end of his deal goingintohis late 30s. Depending on Riellys new potential deal and How Sandin comes along he could even be traded with a lot of value, if needed.

oneX, Britishbulldog and palhal liked this.

Jan. 12, 2020 at 1:56 p.m.

oneX

Joined: Mar. 2019

Posts: 2,770

Likes: 2,619

Quoting: MikeyThePensFan

If the Leafs sign Mikheyev for 3 or more years, expect the AAV ago be at least 3 million dollars. I think he’s got even more talent and tools than Johnsson.

Unfortunately, with the injury he suffered he's likely done for the season and even if he's not...what impact could he have in April (he's expected to be re-evaluated in April) after having not played in 3 months?

At that point the Leafs have either made it into the playoffs or have not. Makes no sense bringing him back for the latter and for the playoffs? I don't think that's a great idea either.
Which brings us to the contract talk...1 year "show me" deal is more likely. If the injury hadn't happened then a 3-4 year deal could have made sense.

As for Dermott, I fully agree with @tomato43 's assessment. He's definitely being held back because of the D Leafs have but next season will be the opposite of right now.
How much does he get and at what term? I'd like to see him locked up in a 4-5 year deal but that likely raises the AAV.
Maybe the better question is who the Leafs get as a UFA D (or in a trade) and talks with Rielly may determine where you go with Dermott.

Britishbulldog liked this.

Jan. 12, 2020 at 5:12 p.m.

Britishbulldog

Thread Starter

C,mon Leafs...Please

Joined: Jun. 2015

Posts: 836

Likes: 329

Quoting: tomato43

Right now Dermott is blocked into a third pairing role, next year he wont have this issue. With Muzzin likely gone he will be moved up to the second pairing and his minutes should increase substantially. If you sign him to a 1 year deal at a low value you are just allowing him to increase his value substantially next year. I am confident in Dermotts puck moving ability that he will have an increase in point in the coming year(s). Dermott knows that his role is likely to increase next year and thus his potential earnings the following year could be greater. I don't think with that likely upcoming opportunity he will want to accept a lowball offer for more than 1 year.

I would rather lock in on a 2.75M X 3 year contract which might be a little bit of a over payment as he doesn't yet have the minutes or points to justify such an increase but i think he has the potential to earn one if only given a 1 year low-ball contract with the potential role increase next season. A three year deal has his new contract spaced out from Riellys potential new deal which i would like. If he does prove to live up to the potential i think he has then his next deal will happen when he is 26 years old. I dont want to be re upping players for there 3rd and 4th contracts when they are 28-30 years old.

If Dermott is 26 year year old RFA he can be resigned without having the tail end of his deal goingintohis late 30s. Depending on Riellys new potential deal and How Sandin comes along he could even be traded with a lot of value, if needed.

27 or 7 UFA rule means we could go 3 years and still have 1 year of RFA but he has arbitration rights after this year so I would burn a year of UFA as well and go for 5 years. Of course that does lead to the question of how much he's going to be worth for 1 year of UFA like Johnsson did.

tomato43 liked this.

Jan. 12, 2020 at 5:21 p.m.

tomato43

tomato

Joined: Oct. 2018

Posts: 526

Likes: 305

Quoting: Britishbulldog

I feel like what it would cost to get Dermott signed to a 5 year deal wouldn't be worth the risk because he hasn't had the opportunity to show his real value or whether he can stand up to higher competition and higher minutes. I think a 3 year deal is the best of both worlds. I also want to make it a point of trying to get players signed to deals that coincide with there prime years. I want to avoid signing players to new deals that take them into there mid to late 30s. Dermott on a 3 year deal take him to 26.At 26 if he has reached his potential he can be resigned to a 6-7 year deal that only takes him to 31-32 years old. This might be overly cautious and looking to far into the future but i think it would keep our window open the longest.

Britishbulldog liked this.

Jan. 12, 2020 at 9:54 p.m.

#10

newballcoach

Joined: May 2019

Posts: 1,797

Likes: 564

I absolutely think a lot of fans overrate Dermott. He has never proven anything, yet gets tons of chances and is always discussed his potential. Don't pay on potential. 2-3 year deal at 2/2.5 is about where he should land, and not a penny more.

The KHL piece complicates Mikeyev's contract situation. If he can get a bigger money, long-term contract there, he simply may not be interested in a 1 or 2 year prove-it deal. This is the reason Zaitsev got such a long-term deal when he was an RFA. I don't think they should bow to his demands if he makes them, but it may mean they lose the player.

I see Engvall getting the 1/1 contract Johnsson got last offseason, it makes too much sense not to.

Britishbulldog liked this.

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