Forums/Armchair-GM

Leafs QO for Mikheyev and Engvall plus Dermotts value

Created by: Britishbulldog
Initial Creation Date: Jan 12, 2020
Published: Jan 12 at 11:41 am
Team: 2019-20 Toronto Maple Leafs
Team Explanation
***Mikheyev and Engvall
I am watching Leaf fans breaking open the bank for these 2 rookie forwards. What I have seen consistently is other teams don't know who the rookies are the 1st season but play them much differently the next season if that player made an impact as a rookie.

Similar to Johnsson signing a QO bridge deal to prove he was for real, both these forwards need to do this as well before they get signed to Johnsson, Kerfoot and Kapanen money.

I would like to see both signed to 1 year deals to something around the QO which is:
- Players who earned less than $660,000 in the previous NHL season must be offered at least 110 percent of last season's salary in a qualifying offer.
- Players who earned up to $1 million must be offered 105 percent.
- Players who earned over $1 million must be offered 100 percent.
(https://www.liveabout.com/nhl-restricted-free-agents-2778980)

Even $1.1 - $1.25 MIL would work to see if they are able to sustain their production and show they aren't flash in the pan.

***Dermott - small LHD that simply isn't bad
I think we have become twisted in our view of Leaf players after the last 4 decades(at least for me) of over hyped prospects, etc.

2 dmen that are RHD... and bigger as well (6'2" TVR and 6'4" Mayfield) had similar offensive numbers as 3rd pair dmen but signed for less that $1 MIL on their 2nd 'prove me' contracts. They followed them with $2.3 MIL x 2 and $1.45 MIL x 5 respectively.

( As you probably all know...TVR has been struggling and even a healthy scratch this year so appears to have been a bit over paid)

I have seen some here give Dermott over $3 MIL and one gave over $4 MIL. Dermott is replaceable and not a core piece.

As a 3rd pair dman I feel he should be given a "Mayfield" style contract or trade him and let Sandin help us forget who Dermott is.

************************

How nuts am I?
Buyouts
  • Mikhail Grabovski: $0
Retained Salary Transactions
  • Phil Kessel: $1,200,000 (15%)
  • Robin Lehner: $1,100,000 (22%)
DRAFT YEARROUND 1ROUND 2ROUND 3ROUND 4ROUND 5ROUND 6ROUND 7
2020
TOR
CBJ
TOR
VGK
TOR
CAR
COL
EDM
SJS
STL
WPG
2021
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
2022
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
TOR
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES BONUSESCAP SPACE
22$81,500,000$83,097,143$0$70,000-$1,597,143
Left WingCenterRight Wing
TOR
Hyman, Zach
$2,250,000
LW
NTC
UFA - 2
TOR
Matthews, Auston
$11,634,000
C
UFA - 5
TOR
Marner, Mitchell
$10,893,000
RW
UFA - 6
TOR
Johnsson, Andreas
$3,400,000
LW
UFA - 4
TOR
Tavares, John
$11,000,000
C
NMC
UFA - 6
TOR
Nylander, William
$6,962,366
RW, C
UFA - 5
TOR
Engvall, Pierre
$925,000
LW, RW
RFA - 1
TOR
Kerfoot, Alexander
$3,500,000
C, LW
UFA - 4
TOR
Kapanen, Kasperi
$3,200,000
RW
RFA - 3
TOR
Moore, Trevor
$775,000
RW, LW
RFA - 2
TOR
Gauthier, Frédérik
$675,000
C
RFA - 1
TOR
Spezza, Jason
$700,000
C, RW
NTC
UFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
TOR
Rielly, Morgan
$5,000,000
LD
UFA - 3
TOR
Ceci, Cody
$4,500,000
RD
UFA - 1
TOR
Andersen, Frederik
$5,000,000
G
NTC
UFA - 2
TOR
Muzzin, Jake
$4,000,000
LD
UFA - 1
TOR
Barrie, Tyson
$2,750,000
RD
UFA - 1
TOR
Hutchinson, Michael
$700,000
G
UFA - 1
TOR
Dermott, Travis
$863,333
LD
RFA - 1
TOR
Holl, Justin
$675,000
RD
UFA - 1
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
TOR
Marincin, Martin
$700,000
LD
UFA - 1
TOR
Horton, Nathan
$5,300,000
RW
NMC NTC
UFA - 1
TOR
Timashov, Dmytro
$694,444
LW
RFA - 1
TOR
Clarkson, David
$5,250,000
RW
NMC NTC
UFA - 1
TOR
Mikheyev, Ilya
$925,000
LW, RW
RFA - 1

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Jan 12 at 11:59
#1
Ayres for President
Joined: May 2017
Posts: 683
Likes: 166
That sounds very reasonable. They may try to sign Mikheyev for longer, but you're right to say contract number speculation is inflated on this site.

I remember just a few years ago when Brown and Hyman were due for a contract. It would be funny to dig that up. People making AGMs would get lambasted for not giving Connor Brown at least 5M AAV (who just scored 20 goals at the time). Somehow fans are not reliable for these kinds of projections.
Britishbulldog liked this.
Jan 12 at 12:04
#2
Thread Starter
C,mon Leafs...Please
Joined: Jun 2015
Posts: 277
Likes: 75
Quoting: leaflet
That sounds very reasonable. They may try to sign Mikheyev for longer, but you're right to say contract number speculation is inflated on this site.

I remember just a few years ago when Brown and Hyman were due for a contract. It would be funny to dig that up. People making AGMs would get lambasted for not giving Connor Brown at least 5M AAV (who just scored 20 goals at the time). Somehow fans are not reliable for these kinds of projections.


You get what I am thinking exactly. Brown scored followed the 20 with 14 goals and then only 8 without ever missing a game (meaning it wasn't injuries that limited him).

With a chance to breakout offensively he is on pace for 12-13 goals this year.
leaflet liked this.
Jan 12 at 12:33
#3
Marner Stan Account
Joined: Sep 2019
Posts: 1,762
Likes: 437
Quoting: Britishbulldog
You get what I am thinking exactly. Brown scored followed the 20 with 14 goals and then only 8 without ever missing a game (meaning it wasn't injuries that limited him).

With a chance to breakout offensively he is on pace for 12-13 goals this year.


Quoting: leaflet
That sounds very reasonable. They may try to sign Mikheyev for longer, but you're right to say contract number speculation is inflated on this site.

I remember just a few years ago when Brown and Hyman were due for a contract. It would be funny to dig that up. People making AGMs would get lambasted for not giving Connor Brown at least 5M AAV (who just scored 20 goals at the time). Somehow fans are not reliable for these kinds of projections.


If the Leafs sign Mikheyev for 3 or more years, expect the AAV ago be at least 3 million dollars. I think he’s got even more talent and tools than Johnsson.
Britishbulldog liked this.
Jan 12 at 12:36
#4
Jack
Joined: Feb 2018
Posts: 2,738
Likes: 909
Dermott will be a core piece and is very valuable. He hasn't played big minutes yet and he wont put up points so his cap hit wont be very high. Hes got all they tools to be a #3 defenseman but he hasn't got the minutes yet. He will be very good
Britishbulldog liked this.
Jan 12 at 12:42
#5
LongtimeLeafsufferer
Joined: Jul 2015
Posts: 30,106
Likes: 7,350
Think it rather silly to think Sandin will make the Leafs forgot Dermot (or whoever is the other LHD,) since they both play the same amount of minutes. Dermot played well with rookie last year and now is playing well with Ceci. Don't think Dermot's on ice value can be dismissed. Now the next contract..both sides have to agree if they want to go long or short. Pros and cons for both parties
Mikheyvov has just two year till he's a UFA, so Leafs might want a longer contract for control, but if they want a show me contract....that's OK, just be prepared to pay more if Mikheyvov does show them.
Britishbulldog liked this.
Jan 12 at 1:31
#6
tomato
Joined: Oct 2018
Posts: 307
Likes: 156
Right now Dermott is blocked into a third pairing role, next year he wont have this issue. With Muzzin likely gone he will be moved up to the second pairing and his minutes should increase substantially. If you sign him to a 1 year deal at a low value you are just allowing him to increase his value substantially next year. I am confident in Dermotts puck moving ability that he will have an increase in point in the coming year(s). Dermott knows that his role is likely to increase next year and thus his potential earnings the following year could be greater. I don't think with that likely upcoming opportunity he will want to accept a lowball offer for more than 1 year. I would rather lock in on a 2.75M X 3 year contract which might be a little bit of a over payment as he doesn't yet have the minutes or points to justify such an increase but i think he has the potential to earn one if only given a 1 year low-ball contract with the potential role increase next season. A three year deal has his new contract spaced out from Riellys potential new deal which i would like. If he does prove to live up to the potential i think he has then his next deal will happen when he is 26 years old. I dont want to be re upping players for there 3rd and 4th contracts when they are 28-30 years old. If Dermott is 26 year year old RFA he can be resigned without having the tail end of his deal goingintohis late 30s. Depending on Riellys new potential deal and How Sandin comes along he could even be traded with a lot of value, if needed.
oneX, Britishbulldog and palhal liked this.
Jan 12 at 1:56
#7
Joined: Mar 2019
Posts: 1,399
Likes: 1,446
Quoting: MikeyThePensFan
If the Leafs sign Mikheyev for 3 or more years, expect the AAV ago be at least 3 million dollars. I think he’s got even more talent and tools than Johnsson.


Unfortunately, with the injury he suffered he's likely done for the season and even if he's not...what impact could he have in April (he's expected to be re-evaluated in April) after having not played in 3 months?

At that point the Leafs have either made it into the playoffs or have not. Makes no sense bringing him back for the latter and for the playoffs? I don't think that's a great idea either.
Which brings us to the contract talk...1 year "show me" deal is more likely. If the injury hadn't happened then a 3-4 year deal could have made sense.

As for Dermott, I fully agree with @tomato43 's assessment. He's definitely being held back because of the D Leafs have but next season will be the opposite of right now.
How much does he get and at what term? I'd like to see him locked up in a 4-5 year deal but that likely raises the AAV.
Maybe the better question is who the Leafs get as a UFA D (or in a trade) and talks with Rielly may determine where you go with Dermott.
Britishbulldog liked this.
Jan 12 at 5:12
#8
Thread Starter
C,mon Leafs...Please
Joined: Jun 2015
Posts: 277
Likes: 75
Quoting: tomato43
Right now Dermott is blocked into a third pairing role, next year he wont have this issue. With Muzzin likely gone he will be moved up to the second pairing and his minutes should increase substantially. If you sign him to a 1 year deal at a low value you are just allowing him to increase his value substantially next year. I am confident in Dermotts puck moving ability that he will have an increase in point in the coming year(s). Dermott knows that his role is likely to increase next year and thus his potential earnings the following year could be greater. I don't think with that likely upcoming opportunity he will want to accept a lowball offer for more than 1 year.

I would rather lock in on a 2.75M X 3 year contract which might be a little bit of a over payment as he doesn't yet have the minutes or points to justify such an increase but i think he has the potential to earn one if only given a 1 year low-ball contract with the potential role increase next season. A three year deal has his new contract spaced out from Riellys potential new deal which i would like. If he does prove to live up to the potential i think he has then his next deal will happen when he is 26 years old. I dont want to be re upping players for there 3rd and 4th contracts when they are 28-30 years old.

If Dermott is 26 year year old RFA he can be resigned without having the tail end of his deal goingintohis late 30s. Depending on Riellys new potential deal and How Sandin comes along he could even be traded with a lot of value, if needed.


27 or 7 UFA rule means we could go 3 years and still have 1 year of RFA but he has arbitration rights after this year so I would burn a year of UFA as well and go for 5 years. Of course that does lead to the question of how much he's going to be worth for 1 year of UFA like Johnsson did.
tomato43 liked this.
Jan 12 at 5:21
#9
tomato
Joined: Oct 2018
Posts: 307
Likes: 156
Quoting: Britishbulldog
27 or 7 UFA rule means we could go 3 years and still have 1 year of RFA but he has arbitration rights after this year so I would burn a year of UFA as well and go for 5 years. Of course that does lead to the question of how much he's going to be worth for 1 year of UFA like Johnsson did.


I feel like what it would cost to get Dermott signed to a 5 year deal wouldn't be worth the risk because he hasn't had the opportunity to show his real value or whether he can stand up to higher competition and higher minutes. I think a 3 year deal is the best of both worlds. I also want to make it a point of trying to get players signed to deals that coincide with there prime years. I want to avoid signing players to new deals that take them into there mid to late 30s. Dermott on a 3 year deal take him to 26.At 26 if he has reached his potential he can be resigned to a 6-7 year deal that only takes him to 31-32 years old. This might be overly cautious and looking to far into the future but i think it would keep our window open the longest.
Britishbulldog liked this.
Jan 12 at 9:54
#10
Joined: May 2019
Posts: 772
Likes: 252
I absolutely think a lot of fans overrate Dermott. He has never proven anything, yet gets tons of chances and is always discussed his potential. Don't pay on potential. 2-3 year deal at 2/2.5 is about where he should land, and not a penny more.

The KHL piece complicates Mikeyev's contract situation. If he can get a bigger money, long-term contract there, he simply may not be interested in a 1 or 2 year prove-it deal. This is the reason Zaitsev got such a long-term deal when he was an RFA. I don't think they should bow to his demands if he makes them, but it may mean they lose the player.

I see Engvall getting the 1/1 contract Johnsson got last offseason, it makes too much sense not to.
Britishbulldog liked this.
 
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