Quoting: J2W
The value isn't bad but every piece MTL is giving up is better than the piece they are receiving, and that's before retention.
While Kapanen is a good long term investment, he is a downgrade from Tatar and MTL doesn't need the cap relief from the difference between them, Leafs would need to add probably a conditional 2021 4th, becomes a 3rd if the Leafs win a round either season and Tatar plays 50% of playoff games. Maybe even becomes a 2nd if they make the ECF either year but I wouldn't push to hard, I am giving a discount due to the Leafs buying in bulk.
Same thing with Petry, he is an upgrade on Liljegren right now and MTL would need to be getting more because they are taking on the risk of a young dman not making the transition to the NHL. A 2nd is likely what would be needed to even it out. I would say it should be conditional and become a 1st if the Leafs have some playoff success but again, buying in bulk should be a bit cheaper. Although with retention I think a first instead of the 2nd would be needed, and a 3rd if the Leafs see some success in the playoffs.
Thompson and Gauthier are relatively even, although Thompson has won more face-offs than Gauthier has taken this season (Gauthier does have a better win%) and I assume that's the reason for the swap. The age difference makes up for the retention here.
Overall for the Leafs trade your looking at a conditional 2nd that can become a 1st or a 1st and conditional 3rd if Petry is retained on, and a 4th that could upgrade to as good as a 2nd. Less than what MTL would get selling these 3 individually, but not an awful return.
Bogosian for Peca 1 for 1 maybe, but MTL doesn't need either player and Peca is cheaper letting them take on cap to increase their return on other trades at the deadline if necessary.
Thanks, J2W. That's really solid analysis. My approach was really that the Leafs need present value assets and the Habs would benefit from the future value of Kapanen, Gauthier and, maybe, Liljegren. Frankly, I am so used to getting screamed at by Leafs fans that I didn't bother with any picks, lest I give them ammo. Player for player, the Leafs are getting the better of it for the next 1-2 years, but then they're all gone as UFAs (or re-signed, but theoretically they could do that anyway as none are likely to be re-signed by Montreal). Beyond those first 1-2 years, the deal favours the Habs as all the players have at least one more RFA negotiation.
If the season were being written off and Petry were traded, the Habs would need a decent 3-6 Dman who can log minutes and has something to prove. Since the goal is not to make the playoffs, there's no point in renting Vatanen or another unless the goal is to audition them as players the Habs might want to try to re-sign. Having a big, protective Dman with something to prove just seemed like a better use of the roster spot than Peca.
Again, thanks for your comments. Much appreciated.